What to do at QB?

[bMiller031]

15 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I guess if Houston and make a trade with the Jets so they can get Fields or Wilson, that makes the most sense to me. 

Agreed.  Seems like a two horse race between NYJ & MIA.  Either way I'm looking forward to those AFC East matchups next season (Allen vs Watson vs Wilson/Fields vs NE QB) 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

The difference with Watson & Stafford - we are co-favorites if we are willing to give up 1.9 for Stafford.

We aren't even a top 3 team in terms of ammo if we want Watson.   The price for us likely begins with 3 1sts and a young rookie contract player like Fant or Jeudy.   And it's probably *still* not enough.

Any team would want Watson over Stafford, price notwithstanding - the age-25 vs 33, and the fact Watson is at the elite tier, makes it a no-brainer.   But beyond the significant price difference, Watson also has to approve the trade, and teams like NYJ/MIA now apparently on the Watson-approved list, we're not just outgunned, we're not even in the main room having the conversation.    

Don’t get me wrong I like Watson but not at that price. I also don’t think it’s what Paton would do as it would be, in essence, tying his entire career to Watson. 3 firsts + a young, high upside player + likely more, no way. 

I really think Miami is the ultimate landing spot for him - young roster, minority HC (albeit one with ties to the Patriot Way which he supposedly loathes), dynamic place for a young guy to live. Miami also has the ammo to make a deal like this happen with two firsts this year, including #3 which, coincidentally, is naturally Houston’s. Casserio can then draft his QBOTF, which could be Mac Jones given the Saban/Belichick connection.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Don’t get me wrong I like Watson but not at that price. I also don’t think it’s what Paton would do as it would be, in essence, tying his entire career to Watson. 3 firsts + a young, high upside player + likely more, no way.  

I really think Miami is the ultimate landing spot for him - young roster, minority HC (albeit one with ties to the Patriot Way which he supposedly loathes), dynamic place for a young guy to live. Miami also has the ammo to make a deal like this happen with two firsts this year, including #3 which, coincidentally, is naturally Houston’s. Casserio can then draft his QBOTF, which could be Mac Jones given the Saban/Belichick connection.

I'd consider 3 1sts and Lock (LOL).  But not Jeudy/Fant.   And the reality - it's probably still not enough to get us into the room, let alone win the bid.     Homer fanbases throwing out scenarios like their QB and 1 single first-round pick are comical in their delusion.   3 1sts & a player in a rookie deal (or in the case of SF, maybe 2 1sts, 2 2nds and Nick Bosa)  are likely what HOU is getting, given the wide interest.   The only question is from who.

The only way MIA/NYJ aren't getting Watson is if  1) Watson doesn't approve going there (and that original story was a plant by HOU FO)  or    2) both teams decide they're better off with young rookie-deal QB.   

I think the odds BOTH teams do #2 is highly, highly unlikely, especially MIA, given their rebuild has accelerated and their window is now.   NYJ owns the ultimate leverage with 1.2, though.   So I discount nothing on their end, especially since GM Joe Douglas is a pretty smart guy.   Watson being 25, they could absorb the pick cost, and they'd still be further ahead by the time they are square pick-wise.  It's a little curious Watson would be OK with NYJ over MIA, but maybe there's more there to being in NYC than we appreciate.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[AnAngryAmerican]

17 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'd consider 3 1sts and Lock (LOL).  But not Jeudy/Fant.   And the reality - it's probably still not enough to get us into the room, let alone win the bid.     Homer fanbases throwing out scenarios like their QB and 1 single first-round pick are comical in their delusion.   3 1sts & a player in a rookie deal (or in the case of SF, maybe 2 1sts, 2 2nds and Nick Bosa)  are likely what HOU is getting, given the wide interest.   The only question is from who.

The only way MIA/NYJ aren't getting Watson is if  1) Watson doesn't approve going there (and that original story was a plant by HOU FO)  or    2) both teams decide they're better off with young rookie-deal QB.   

I think the odds BOTH teams do #2 is highly, highly unlikely, especially MIA, given their rebuild has accelerated and their window is now.   NYJ owns the ultimate leverage with 1.2, though.   So I discount nothing on their end, especially since GM Joe Douglas is a pretty smart guy.   Watson being 25, they could absorb the pick cost, and they'd still be further ahead by the time they are square pick-wise.  It's a little curious Watson would be OK with NYJ over MIA, but maybe there's more there to being in NYC than we appreciate.

Even with Saleh, who I think will be a terrific HC even if not immediately, I think Miami has less of the stink of dysfunction than do the Jets.

I think the way only it isn’t Miami is if DeShaun himself decides he doesn’t want to risk going to a Patriot Way team, but Flores seems to be far less a BB wannabe than Mac/Mangini/Patricia/BoB were. He seems cut more from the Mike Vrabel cloth. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AnAngryAmerican

[thebestever6]

I find it odd if the Deshaun Watson trade request released when it happened over a week ago. Screams to me Houston may be leaking info to have more commodities. I don't think it's conseidinental that the two teams listed as Watson's landing spots have the most to send in a trade.

Edited January 28, 2021 by thebestever6

[jsthomp2007]

23 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Even with Saleh, who I think will be a terrific HC even if not immediately, I think Miami has less of the stink of dysfunction than do the Jets.

I think the way only it isn’t Miami is if DeShaun himself decides he doesn’t want to risk going to a Patriot Way team, but Flores seems to be far less a BB wannabe than Mac/Mangini/Patricia/BoB were. He seems cut more from the Mike Vrabel cloth. 

I think this would be on Houston, though, right?  If you are trading Watson to Miami you are getting Tua in return.  I'd assume Houston would have to think Tua is the QBOTF for them, right? 

[AnAngryAmerican]

1 minute ago, jsthomp2007 said:

I think this would be on Houston, though, right?  If you are trading Watson to Miami you are getting Tua in return.  I'd assume Houston would have to think Tua is the QBOTF for them, right? 

Given the Saban connection with Tua, they could very well see him as the QBOTF and use all the ammo they acquire in the trade to build around Tua. I don’t think it would be well-received by the fanbase but, as we’ve seen, I don’t think Houston’s leadership gives a tinkers damn about fanbase reaction. 

[jsthomp2007]

2 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Given the Saban connection with Tua, they could very well see him as the QBOTF and use all the ammo they acquire in the trade to build around Tua. I don’t think it would be well-received by the fanbase but, as we’ve seen, I don’t think Houston’s leadership gives a tinkers damn about fanbase reaction. 

The Tua to Cooks connections isn't as sexy as the Watson to Hopkins connection? 

Edited January 28, 2021 by jsthomp2007

[AKRNA]

Just curious but in this century how many QBOTF won SB rings?

[AnAngryAmerican]

16 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

Just curious but in this century how many QBOTF won SB rings?

You mean guys who were drafted and developed by the team with whom they won their ring(s)?

Off the top of my head since 2000 - Brady (6), Ben (2), Eli (2), Maholmes, Flacco, Rodgers and Wilson.

Peyton, Brad Johnson, Nick Foles, Drew Brees and Trent Dilfer were either drafted by teams other than the one with whom they won or were drafted prior to 2000. 

Edit: Foles was drafted by Philly but left before coming back, taking over when Wentz got hurt and then going on the run to win. So he fits the category as well but in a roundabout way. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AnAngryAmerican

[AKRNA]

10 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

You mean guys who were drafted and developed by the team with whom they won their ring(s)?

Off the top of my head since 2000 - Brady (6), Ben (2), Eli (2), Maholmes, Flacco, Rodgers and Wilson.

Peyton, Brad Johnson, Nick Foles, Drew Brees and Trent Dilfer were either drafted by teams other than the one with whom they won or were drafted prior to 2000. 

Edit: Foles was drafted by Philly but left before coming back, taking over when Wentz got hurt and then going on the run to win. So he fits the category as well but in a roundabout way. 

So, we need a bit more clarification on QBOTF.

Ben won his two rings on his rookie deal with a great defense. Rodgers and Wilson the same. mahohes,Flacco and Eli's 1st were on rookie deals. The second list you give were hired guns, FA acquisitions short and long term. So far, no QBOTF has won a ring outside of Eli after they signed their first extension.

Brady is the only outlier and he never took top dollar on his contracts, about the only guy that didn't.

So, define QBOTF for me. My understanding it's a guy that you feel will man the spot for your team for a decade or more with multiple re-signings.

 

[bMiller031]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Don’t get me wrong I like Watson but not at that price. I also don’t think it’s what Paton would do as it would be, in essence, tying his entire career to Watson. 3 firsts + a young, high upside player + likely more, no way. 

 

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I'd consider 3 1sts and Lock (LOL).  But not Jeudy/Fant.   And the reality - it's probably still not enough to get us into the room, let alone win the bid.     

I'd do 3 1sts and Fant/Jeudy for Watson .. but @Broncofan's second point is what makes the Watson discussion moot- NYJ has the trump card w/ 1.2 and thee additional 1sts in the next two drafts.  Even our BEST offer doesn't sniff that. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by bMiller031

[AnAngryAmerican]

15 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

So, we need a bit more clarification on QBOTF.

Ben won his two rings on his rookie deal with a great defense. Rodgers and Wilson the same. mahohes,Flacco and Eli's 1st were on rookie deals. The second list you give were hired guns, FA acquisitions short and long term. So far, no QBOTF has won a ring outside of Eli after they signed their first extension.

Brady is the only outlier and he never took top dollar on his contracts, about the only guy that didn't.

So, define QBOTF for me. My understanding it's a guy that you feel will man the spot for your team for a decade or more with multiple re-signings.

 

So I’m confused, what’s the basis of the argument? You need a great defense even if you have a HOF QB to win? I think that’s always been the case. 

Are you arguing against trading for Stafford/Watson? If so there are stronger arguments against such a move than asking how many QBs won rings with great defenses while on their rookie contracts. 

The argument against Watson is simply the cost. You have Watson, with his a large salary, but you give up some young talent and give away 3 first round draft picks to surround him with talent.

With Stafford the argument against I laid out earlier - because of his cap hit and giving away 1.9+ you miss your chance to add starters in free agency and a day 1 rookie contributor whose rights you control for 5 years. And you give up all that for QB in his 30s, you’re all in for the next 3-4 years, hoping you can get over the Maholmes hump in the AFCW/AFC. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AnAngryAmerican

[grizmo78]

9 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

 

I'd do 3 1sts and Fant/Jeudy for Watson .. but @Broncofan's second point is what makes the Watson discussion moot- NYJ has the trump card w/ 1.2 and thee additional 1sts in the next two drafts.  Even our BEST offer doesn't sniff that. 

I'd do 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and Sutton for Watson. As much as I love Sutton, he is coming off a lost year and entering a contract year. Hou might like him because he is a relatively proven commodity with #1 potential. On our side, I would advocate to then sign JuJu to take Sutton's place as #1 WR on our team.  Even then, you are all correct that NYJ and MIA are both in much better position than we are, compensation wise. Only shot we have is if Watson utilizes his NTC for both of those places. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, bMiller031 said:

Agreed.  Seems like a two horse race between NYJ & MIA.  Either way I'm looking forward to those AFC East matchups next season (Allen vs Watson vs Wilson/Fields vs NE QB) 

Since each have 2 firsts this year it makes it more palatable. They give up both this year and one next year plus maybe something else.

It’s different than someone like us who would have to give up our next 3 1sts and not pick in the first round again until 2024.

Just say those 3 firsts end up being each a Pro Bowl level CB, EDGE and RT plus we give up Fant/Jeudy/Sutton, that’s just WAY too expensive for me, good as Watson is. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by AnAngryAmerican