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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 21 - Taco Bowl XXI POSTED!)


TheKillerNacho

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Week 2 deeper dive and score predictions

Freiburg Venom @ Miami Sharks

Venom was able to harrase and dispose of Big Ben. But Russ is a different beast here.

I think both teams will be able to score points here. Sharks put up 24 points on the Squirrels defense, and i think the Squirells have a better defense than Venom, despite Venoms performance against the Penguins. I feel like 11 stuffs is more of a product of Orcas interior line being terrible. And that leads to Big Ben (likely one of the worst QBs) having an extra bad day. Plus, this time Venom plays on the road

 But venom makes an extra key stop. I feel like theres too many liabilities on the Sharks defense here.

 

prediction:

35-28 Venom wins


Reykjavík Direwolves @ Antarctica Penguin Poppers

This should be the lol game of the week.

And a MALF lock

Down the line, the Direwolves are just too talented of a team here.

Lamar >>> Ben

Barkley >>> Akers

Right now, OJ Howard is the Penguins MVP

look at these gaudy stats!

O.J. Howard [1 GS]: 5 receptions for 49 yards (9.80 YPR, 17 LNG), 1 touchdown.

That being said, Poppers are playing at home and have meme cold/rain/wind settings. Thats gonna trip up a team this year.

But it wont be the direwolves who are good in the cold as well.

prediction:

Direwolves win  35- 24


Little Rock Uni Royals @ Scranton Papermakers

 

First off, I hate myself for giving away Budda Baker. Its akin to killing the goat mom in Undertale.

On paper (heh) Scranton looks like a good team up and down.

I think Josh Allen continues to be the weak link. He had a poor game last week, and Ryan is a proven sim god.

also, papermakers allowed 7 stuffs last game. The Royals defensive line will feast. They got 6 stuffs last game. Miles Sanders isnt good enough to get much here

Besides Budda, the Royals are very thin in the secondary, and the papermakers have very good WR/TE. Stephen Nelson had a good game last week, maybe he will finally be good in the sim!

Either way, i dont think Allen will do a good job in getting his WRs the ball. The papermakers have been calculated by me as having the least impressive win last week in terms of efficiency and i am all in on that prediction. Less than 200 passing yards is horrible. 

last week, the Royals scored 24 pts and were 4/10 on 3rd downs. I expect the law of averages to rise and them to score more points this game.

 

prediction

Royals win convincingly 31-7


Norway Knights @ Anchorage Moose

Goof is the biggest question mark here after a terrible game in a win. Kamara and AP ran wild. However, its a little fuzzy because the amish chose to take Goof out of the game, and counselor ran the ball 47% of the time. MLF isnt going to make that same mistake

Also, the Knights defensive is pretty terrible in the pass game. They allowed Kirk to pass all over them. The Knights run defense is very stout, but they have a much bigger test this week.

Nick Bosa had 3 sacks last game.

But the Knights have a very solid line here, which should hold up just enough to expose the Moose secondary.

And then theres arguably the best RB in football, Zeke, who is elite at carrying the football.

He was the player of the week last time, and quite frankly, cannot be stopped

Ezekiel Elliott (NOR): 24 carries for 123 yards (5.12 YPC, 13 LNG), 1 touchdown. 4 receptions for 72 yards (18.00 YPR, 40 LNG), 0 touchdowns.

 

The Knights only punted once last game, so you need to beat them in a shootout. However, Goof simply doesnt have the moxie for that.

I predict another 40 burger for the Knights here as they rout the Moose quite handily. 

Watch for the Goof - Ramsey connection.

I predict a defensive TD here also.

 

prediction:

Knights win 42 - 24


Lancaster Fighting Amish @ Hanoi Viet Kongs

 

A battle of 2 qbs that need to prove themselves. Baker and Winston.

The Amish was able to drive the ball against Moose, but they had to settle for FGs. The Amish were 3/13 on 3rd downs last game. The Kongs werent much better (5/13).

This should come as no surprise, but it should be a defensive battle here.

QBs aside, the Kongs have the better team. Dalvin Cook should eat, and Hopkins is one of the best. Most importantly, theres no stopping Ben Jones who wants ALL the stats!

Ben Jones [1 GS]: 3 pancakes, 1 sack allowed, 1 stuff allowed, 1 recovery, 1 touchdown

The Kongs played Mahomes last week and didnt do too bad. Of course they were going to lose against the Pirates.

And now its an away game for Amish too. and they are NOT used to playing in the heat

However, what may kill the kongs are turnovers, and the Amish have a few playmakers on defense that can potentially make life difficult for Winston, namely Carlton Davis. You gotta think Winston throws another pick or 2 here.

But ultimately, i think the Kongs talent level here propel them to a win, albiet a narrow one

turnovers make it a short field for defenses, and i see a lot of points being scored by both teams in this way.

 

prediction:

Kongs win 28-21


Rocket City Trash Pandas @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths

Both of these teams got taken apart by much superior teams in week 1. But who is better between them?

For SA, i really like their offense

You got Tom Brady, and this stud

Josh Jacobs [1 GS]: 25 carries for 152 yards (6.08 YPC, 30 LNG), 2 touchdowns

I feel like Tanny isnt going to be very good in the sim, and CMCs absence irl may hurt him here.

Tanny is passing against Gilmore and Peters, which doesnt bode well.

Robinson is very good, but look at these pathetic 2nd and 3rd WR stats.

Corey Davis vs Peters is going to be a disaster.

Corey Davis [1 GS]: 1 reception for 16 yards (16.00 YPR, 16 LNG), 0 touchdowns.
D.J. Moore [1 GS]: 0 receptions for 0 yards (0.00 YPR, 0 LNG), 0 touchdowns.

 

Also, i dont trust Winfield yet as a starting safety.

If something is going to doom SA, its their offensive line play. RC has a lot of talent in their front 7, and they could get to Brady a lot here. 

However, i dont see it being anything close to the deciding factor.

 

prediction:

SA wins 34-13

 


Indianapolis Predators @ Egypt Starfalls

First off, interesting decision to put Taysom Hill at FB. Cant wait to see whats the first stat there.

Watson is a proven commodity in the sim. and the starfells have 3 talented WRs

however, the Gurley/lindsay tandem is underwhelming so far. But conbined together, i think they have promise

Xavien Howard is one of the best cbs in the game.

however, i love the Preds team.

Herbert can be the start of an impending dynasty here.

Playoff Lenny is a sim god, and had a very good first game.

Lockett/Chase/Tee should do damage at WR.

The Preds defensive line is one of the best. Mack, Garrett, Quinnan should be able to stimmy the rammy attack, especially on the ground

Even though they lost week 1, the preds are my most overlooked team in the league.

Lets dig deeper. Starfells safeties have only 1 coverage between them. Looking at what the Pandas did last week on offense, that means they havent been tested. They will be tested this week.

I see the preds winning more of the 2 and 3 WR matchups, which could be enough.

The starfells oline played good last week, but they are facing a much better defense now. That said, i hate the preds seconday and watson should be able to exploit them early and often.

I feel like its one of those games thats gonna come down to the wire and be won in some kind of freak play.

Sadly, i think the preds will be at the receiving end of another brutal defeat.

I dont love the Preds this year maybe to go on a deep run, but watch out in S22. They are going to do damage.

Herbert and Watson should both light it up and it should be a very fun game to watch

prediction:

Starfells win 35-28


Pittsburgh Punishers @ Chicago Fire

 

RNG wrecked pitt last game. 2 lost fumbles.

Bell and Mack as the runningbacks are certainly a choice for the Fire.

But they should have one of the best passing games. Brees to Jones/Thomas is a proven winning combination.

Hes going up against Tre White and Fuller, which is the matchup to watch here.

on the other side, I feel like Burrow's missed time is gonna hurt him here, and i dont have faith in Mixon. And likely hes going to be playing in extreme wind

This time Pitt will pick their sliders, so that should help out. agression was maxed out at 100. However, lowering the agression might help Brees pick apart the team.

However, they are playing in a kind of cold stadium, so thats another setback.

Im thinking that Fires offense was an anomaly last week, and they will back with a vengence here.

Bet on Brees and his WRs to carry the day

prediction:

Fire wins 42-21


Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Tacoma Thunder

Malfs game of the week!

Mahomes is an early favorite for MVP

Patrick Mahomes [1 GS]: 23/37 (62.16%, 116.61 Rating) for 317 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

 

but Tacoma has an excellent trifecta in Rodgers/Chubb/Theilen.

 

Pirates were suprisingly bad on 3rd down

Third Down: 5/13 

while tacoma was much better

Third Down: 9/16

And it wasnt because of the sacks: mahomes has yet to be sacked.

so i think law of averages says that Pirates have an even better game

The tacoma secondary is no match for mahomes and the Pirates pick em apart 

 

prediction:

Pirates win  38-21


Richmond Flying Squirrels @ Phoenix Rattlers

 

The rattlers have a scary passing attack, but unproven running backs.

Squirrels with 16 coverages, just in their secondary is pretty insane.

on the flip side, the rattles are pretty weak there, although Poole could be a hidden CB gem.

PHO only averaged 2.72 yards on the ground last game, but thats likely to improve as Rich is allowing runs at a clip of 4.71 yards per.

 

Murray had an insane game 1 and hes on pace to be an MVP candidate

Kyler Murray (RIC): 21/33 (63.64%, 113.70 Rating) for 224 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

This game is being played on outdoor dirt, which could spell trouble for a careless team 

Interestingly enough, i think its more dangerous for the home team, and might make cousins not do as good.

tl;dr: PHOs porous defense is too much to overcome, and the Squirrels take it, but its a very close game

Prediction:

Squirrels win 28-21

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Yes, I suppose it would be a bit more convenient for me to post tonight instead of tomorrow. Enjoy.

Freiburg Venom @ Miami Sharks: https://youtu.be/HSCJKnZ4xpE
Reykjavík Direwolves @ Antarctica Penguin Poppers: https://youtu.be/27Gq61wT5vo
Little Rock Uni Royals @ Scranton Papermakers: https://youtu.be/ZQ1vLy1IFR4
Norway Knights @ Anchorage Moose: https://youtu.be/ZOYQPUYT258
Lancaster Fighting Amish @ Hanoi Viet Kongs: https://youtu.be/HYoOUvw1YGM
Rocket City Trash Pandas @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths: https://youtu.be/wxar0DU-VMA
Indianapolis Predators @ Egypt Starfalls: https://youtu.be/IQ1hrvHbt2Y
Pittsburgh Punishers @ Chicago Fire: https://youtu.be/9-Fjg3d0LQk
Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Tacoma Thunder: https://youtu.be/qIMyJyIlqDk
Richmond Flying Squirrels @ Phoenix Rattlers: https://youtu.be/41aMT6joCs8

GameDocs: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kBzO83JFwE70frUBA8xXZdLXQB6DCGKS?usp=sharing
Updated stats: https://thekillernacho.blogspot.com/2021/03/nsfl-season-21-detailed-statistics.html

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"last week, the Royals scored 24 pts and were 4/10 on 3rd downs. I expect the law of averages to rise and them to score more points this game."

How do we feel about 3rd Down: 2/9 (22.22%)??

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10 minutes ago, Glen said:

"last week, the Royals scored 24 pts and were 4/10 on 3rd downs. I expect the law of averages to rise and them to score more points this game."

How do we feel about 3rd Down: 2/9 (22.22%)??

I'm converting like 55%. 

Also, my defense is allowing like 55%.

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