Will the defense still be a top-11 unit this year?

[JAF-N72EX]

I don't think so.

While the defense has carried this team for 3 straight years and has still remained a top-11 unit, they have slowly declined and are getting older.

So do you think the Bears will improve, or decline in 2021?

Here's a quick recap of the last 3 years.

Spoiler

 

In 2018, they finished 1st in the league and were one of the best defenses in history with a DVOA of -25.4% (which is a very high percentage for any defense) while playing the 23rd easiest offensive schedule in the league. And I'm sure we can all agree that we cannot expect this type of dominance every year. That's unreasonable.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2018

In 2019, they finished 10th in DVOA (-5.8%), which was good but a far cry, while playing the toughest offensive schedule in the league per FO. RRH was retained. Amos and Callahan were the only players who were not retained in the offseason. HHCD was added to replace to Amos and he held up pretty well---he wasn't a playmaker but was not a liability either.  Hicks was out for the year. Eddie took on more of a traditional SS-slash-LB-slash-NB role, and Mack was asked to play more coverage and the defense as a whole took a dive.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2019

In 2020, they finished 8th in DVOA (-7.5%), a 1.7% increase, while playing the toughest offensive schedule in the league for the 2nd year in a row. They replaced an aging and declining Prince with rookie Jaylon Johnson who played well. Roquan showed his true major upside and was arguably our best defensive player last year. They lost NT Goldman to Covid. They replaced HHCD with another vet in Gipson, and much like HHCD he simply did his job. Skrines started to show signs of aging at NB and rookie Kildor came in and proved how expendable Skrines really was. RRH had a down year as a depth player. Quinn was banged up and was a huge disappointment. Trevathan showed signs of his age and slowing down, while struggling to cover TEs and RBs out of the backfield. Albeit, came on strong late in the season.  Hicks still played well but also showed signs of age.

I gotta say, I didn't feel like I was watching a top-8 defense last year.  The unit as a whole began to get tired of carrying the lackluster offense and it showed. They gave up entirely with Foles at the helm and saw no end in sight.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

 

Now with all that said, lets look at the 2021 season and measure the pros vs the cons and the progression/regression shown from each player. 

In 2021, they get Goldman back (which should help alot in the run game). Nichols played well. Vildor and JJ get another year under their belts -- regardless if it's at RCB or NB.  Gipson earned his extension but is not a long-term fix.  Shelly stepped up and proved to be a valuable asset as a backup up and on STs. 

On the flip side though; the offensive schedule doesn't get any easier by the looks of it.  Mack, Hicks, and Trevathan are all 30 and over. We still don't have a safety opposite of Eddie to free him up (whether that was by scheme or not...we'll find out). They released their best starting corner (stupidly and w/o getting anything in return for it) in hopes that a 31-year-old vet (Trufant) who has struggled in recent years can play as well as Fuller did. And JJ's injury history is a concern. And we still don't know which version of Quinn we're gonna see this year--2019 Quinn or 2020 Quinn. 

I still think they finish around the middle of the pack but Desai may have alot of work to do next year.

 

[soulman]

I gotta think Desai will be a key factor in getting the defense back to playing in a fashion far similar to Vic Fangio's 2018 defense than Chuck Pagano's 2019-2020 defenses and he also has Mike Pettine onboard to help with scheming and game plans especially against NFCN teams.

I actually see an improved front seven.  Why?

Having Goldman back to protect Smith is huge.  Nichols filled in nicely last year but he's not a two gap NT.  Now he can go back to playing as a penetrating and pursuit DE sharing snaps with Mario Edwards who was really an unsung signing by Pace.  If he can avoid major injuries I still believe Hicks has enough left in his tank to still be a dominant DL.  Just his presence on the field lifts everyone around him.  Blackson is here to give him fewer snaps and hopefully preserve him for a 17 game season and I'm interested to see what Tonga can add.  He's a big kid whose about 1/3 NT and 2/3 DT much like Hicks.  If he can learn from Hicks he may just become his eventual replacement.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I don't believe Quinn will step on his **** again this year.  2020 was a combination of him not being 100% healthy and also being somewhat misused.  He's really not an OLB at all so Desai should allow him to rush more as a DE with his hand in the dirt and use Attaochu in the role of an OLB who plays from a two point stance.  He's actually a pretty effective pass rusher or at least he was here in Denver.  Then we need to see Gipson step up a notch or two on the other side to spell Mack and preserve him as well. One or two more will make the PS as DL or OLB but overall we should have enough depth for a 17 game/18 week season.

I'm glad we were able to bring Christian Jones back.  Seemed like he was just hitting his stride when we lost him in FA.  IMHO he gives us another ILB as least as good s KPL was.  It's unfortunate that DT didn't come in ready to play last year and it showed up early on but he seemed to get his game back on track after the first month or so and finish stronger.  Like Hicks he's a spark plug as far as leadership goes but also a guy whose effectiveness is wearing down.  Hope he can hang on for another year or two so we can find his replacement. I expect Roquan Smith to continue to ascend.  He'll be next in line on defense for an extension but Pace did pick up his 5th year option as well.

It's the secondary that concerns me but that's also Desai's game and where his expertise lies.  One thing I'd like to see is for Eddie Jackson to go back to playing as a Centerfield/FS.  We need more defensive turnovers from the back end and putting Jackson there is how we can get more.  Gipson is a decent enough Safety to play more of a SS role but we also need to see some push from Bush and others.  Johnson can be a solid press corner like Prince was but he has to stay healthy.  It's the Slot CB and Left CB spots that worry me.  Two guys need to step up big time and I'm not certain Trufant is up to playing as a #1 CB any longer.  Once a guy like him becomes injury prone and starts bouncing around his days as any kind of a shut down CB are over.  The best we can say is we have a lot of competition for CB jobs.

So on top of all of this we have a rookie DC whom we know to be extremely intelligent and a very experienced Senior Defensive Assistant paired with him but we still don't know how the pairing will work especially having lost other top defensive assistants.  The potential to remain a top ten defense is there coupled with a potential to slide due to injuries, age, and new coaching.  So it's gonna be hard to predict until we can see them in action and if either age, inexperience, or scheme are having a negative impact.  Let's hope for the best.

[AZBearsFan]

I honestly think this is heavily dependent on what happens with the offense. Our pass rush is the engine for our entire defense and it is so much more effective when we can play with the lead. 

[G08]

It'll boil down to scheme and coaching. If Desai can get our guys coached up properly AND consistently put them in the best position to succeed, I don't see why this can't be a top 10 defense again.

[G08]

I won't miss those third and long Cover-3 calls. ******* hell.

[Madmike90]

Desai is a Fangio disciple...expect a ton of bend but don't break...I don't think we will be top 11 in yards given up...could very well be top 11 in points allowed though...that said as others have said a lot will depend on how much the offence improves as well as if we can generate pass rush at a higher level than last season...health will as usual be one of the biggest factors also.

[WindyCity]

I think they may get close to the top 10, but the days of elite are probably done.

They have a bunch of guys who are aging or who have already fallen over the cliff, Hicks, Trevathan, Quinn.

They need the young CBs to step up and that is a big risk. That is a hard position to come in and have an impact at right away and if you do those guys usually get drafted high.

I think there are probably too many "ifs" for the defense to be top 8, but top 10-12 could happen.

[WindyCity]

Sign Steven Nelson so CB2 is not a giant ? and I would start thinking top 10 as a lock.

[soulman]

Maybe this will help to answer a few questions relative to Sean Desai's scheme.

 

Scheme Edge Could AidThomas Graham Jr.

Originally posted on FanNation Bear Digest
By Gene Chamberlain  |  Last updated 5/20/21

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/scheme_edge_could_aidthomas_graham_jr/s1_16634_34953164?utm_source=mb&utm_medium=email&mb_edition=20210520&mb_loc=right_h

 

Thomas Graham Jr. might have a bit of an edge over the usual rookie coming into a pro defensive system.

Considering the Oregon cornerback will be the newest young face in a group of younger Bears secondary players, he'll need any advantage he can get.

Graham didn't feel completely ill at ease trying to fit into a new defensive system at rookie camp. He already had played in something similar to the scheme new coordinator Sean Desai is implementing.

"It's amazing," Graham said. "Definitely because he comes from the same tree as my first defensive coordinator in college, so I spent two years in that defense. I've just kind of got to get used to the calls and the checks."

 

The first defensive coordinator he was talking about was Jim Leavitt, a longtime assistant or college head coach dating back into the 1970s. Leavitt was linebackers coach for the San Francisco 49ers when Vic Fangio was heading up that defense prior to coming to be Chicago defensive coordinator. 

So the connection Graham has to his new defensive system is obvious, as it's the same system the Bears have chosen to deploy again after defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano's departure.

 

"For me personally, it wasn't like I'm coming into a whole organization that runs like a completely different defense that I've never seen before," Graham said. "I've seen it. It's just different calls, different checks, different meanings for certain things but overall the same concept."

Some of the other defenders were looking to Graham at the rookie camp when everyone seemed a bit lost at times, because he had played in the system. But like Graham said, a good deal of it is different.  

"So, being able to play fast once you learn it is, I think, going to be able to slow the game down for me," he said. "Just kind of being a freshman (now) in college all over again."

Graham, who had eight college interceptions, could actually fit into either one of the two open starting positions in the Bears secondary.

 

"They just told me that they want me to come in here and learn the playbook, be able to play both corner and nickel," Graham said. "So they told me just go out there and compete, do as best as you can, and that's what I'm going to do.

"Me, personally, I want to go out there and start, but nothing is given in this league. You have to go take it. You have to earn it."

 

The Bears continue to say they like Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley as possible outside cornerbacks or slot cornerbacks, but coach Matt Nagy wants to include Graham in this same category.

Graham slid all the way to the last pick of Round 6 after some predraft projections had him as a third-rounder. The possibility exists it may have had to do with his year away from the sport as an opt-out.

 

"I absolutely think there's an opportunity for him," Nagy said. "You guys could see two years ago what type of player he was. We saw it — really, really talented. (He) did sit out this year, so for anybody that didn't play we want to make sure that they come in and are really able to learn Sean's system on defense and then let Sean and those guys and (defensive backs coach) Deshea (Townsend) really figure out what's best for him, whether it's in the slot at nickel or outside at corner or both."

Nagy said youth in the slot defensive back position is one the Bears can cope with because both Desai and Townsend have experience handling this spot.

"I know that's coach Desai's forte is the nickel position, so I know they're going to be coached well between him and Deshea," Nagy said. "Deshea being in the nickel, as well. It's really going to be what can he handle mentally and then competition, man.

 

"Let's let those guys go out there and then see what they can do against our (receivers) in the slot."

[WindyCity]

Graham and Vildor will likely decide how high this defense can be. If they can play well then the secondary should be improved and the entire defense should be better because of it

[dll2000]

Starting 11 is pretty good.  Really good if Quinn shows up and we get decent corner play.   Depth is bad.

It will depend on injuries and usage.   If Dalton is going 3 and out in a longer year, any defense is going to be bad in long run.      

I think Pagano totally mailed it in last year and coasted so scheming and coaching should be much better.

Improved running game and QB play will do wonders for defense.

I think we are underestimating the impact of Patterson to special teams though.   He was like Tasker.   He was very valuable in coverage and returns.   People just don't think much of specialists.   He will be missed.  

At least we have a good kicker now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[abstract_thought]

Getting Goldman back is nice. Trevathan is old and has lost several steps. Mack and Hicks often deal with nagging injuries and the CB group is a mess.

Last season they were very good against the run and average against the pass. I fear they're even more exploitable after the loss of Fuller. I'd be surprised if they're much better than average in 2021.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think Pagano totally mailed it in last year and coasted so scheming and coaching should be much better.

Maybe not quite as badly as Fox did for three seasons but I'm far more in favor of getting on a kick with hiring younger hungrier coaches looking to rise up the coaching ladder including coordinators looking to become HC prospects.

Much like younger players they're the ones who'll put in the extra time necessary to succeed at this level.  All indications from those who know him or have played for him are that Desai is extremely focused and intelligent plus we're back to running Fangio's schemes.

Vic and his staff did a great job of turning some careers around and getting some of the younger guys to step up so let's hope this bunch can do the same under Desai.  Age 30 is not ancient for DL and Pass Rushers as many All Pros from the past have shown.

The key as always is gonna be staying as healthy as possible over an 18 week season and upgrading the backups so little is lost when they come in to take snaps or have a need to replace a starter due to injury.  As usual we'll need a little luck because depth may be thin.

[Heinz D.]

Don't know where they'll be...but an improved Quinn and a returning Goldman make a world of difference. 

Add in an improved offense, keeping the D off the field more, and it could be a good mix. 

[Nads786]

4 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Getting Goldman back is nice. Trevathan is old and has lost several steps. Mack and Hicks often deal with nagging injuries and the CB group is a mess.

Last season they were very good against the run and average against the pass. I fear they're even more exploitable after the loss of Fuller. I'd be surprised if they're much better than average in 2021.

They were actually good against the pass and bad against the run. Then eventually they had a huge spurt when they just sucked.

 

I think they will be a top 15 unit. Mack is just not as dominant as he was year 1.