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Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 22 - Taco Bowl XXII POSTED!)


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1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said:

So many snarky comments about the backwards logics of Karnage’s moves but I am driving around and don’t have time. I’ll make up for lost time later 

You best read up. I made that T.J. Edwards comment for you.

In all seriousness, bad moves from new managers (and the trashing of them) is just tradition. Bad moves from all managers is tradition. Hell, who are we to say what a bad move is? Nobody has the sim figured out. It's a mystery. 

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33 minutes ago, swoosh said:

You best read up. I made that T.J. Edwards comment for you.

In all seriousness, bad moves from new managers (and the trashing of them) is just tradition. Bad moves from all managers is tradition. Hell, who are we to say what a bad move is? Nobody has the sim figured out. It's a mystery. 

And Waller is a stud. One more strong NFL season from him and he should be a top sim TE.

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5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

And Waller is a stud. One more strong NFL season from him and he should be a top sim TE.

I'm shocked that he isn't already

I know its small sample size, but Gronk, Waller, and Andrews all being bottom 5 is odd

Further proof in my eyes that NSFL stats are not gospel or perfectly predictive to future success, even going from odd season to even season. The team, scheme, and players around them are a big part of why the numbers are what they are for players

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5 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

And Waller is a stud. One more strong NFL season from him and he should be a top sim TE.

Totally agree. I actually like this trade for Karnage. Just as long as he is kept at TE where he costs two tags. 

As good as Kittle and Kelce are, their value was severely hurt by being played at WR and now costing three tags. Every year that's the equivalent to a 5th round pick you're losing out on. Three tags (1st round pick value) for a TE is a lot to pay.

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2 minutes ago, Scalamania said:

I'm convinced that TE is about as worthless at OL in the sim. 

I actually see TE as lower than OL in my eyes. OL has value IMO

I struggle to get production out of TEs. Except Kyle Rudolph, who was weirdly good for me. Like, definitely performed better for me than Kelce at TE

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10 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I actually see TE as lower than OL in my eyes. OL has value IMO

I struggle to get production out of TEs. Except Kyle Rudolph, who was weirdly good for me. Like, definitely performed better for me than Kelce at TE

Yeah I just don't get it. Waller has been pretty bad for me the past two seasons. I actually regret keeping him over Maye. 

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Honestly, I think a lot of the value of TE is contingent on your WR core. If it's a crappy group, the TE is going to get featured more, and put up more stats. Got an elite #1 and good #2? TE isn't going to suppliment them as the primary target.

I actually took a look at this with regards to Gronk while discussing with someone earlier this year, here's the stats:

Quote

Season 13 (2017) Derek Carr QB
Wide Receivers:
Demaryius Thomas [16 GS]: 110 receptions for 1,552 yards (14.11 YPR, 32 LNG), 9 touchdowns, 4 drops, 1 fumble.
Kenny Britt [16 GS]: 65 receptions for 868 yards (13.35 YPR, 52 LNG), 9 touchdowns, 8 drops, 2 fumbles.
Kenny Stills [16 GS]: 34 receptions for 461 yards (13.56 YPR, 27 LNG), 3 touchdowns, 4 drops.

Tight End:
Rob Gronkowski [16 GS]: 93 receptions for 1,149 yards (12.35 YPR, 81 LNG), 10 touchdowns, 4 drops, 2 fumbles. 18 pancakes.

Season 14 (2017) Derek Carr QB
Wide Receivers:
Demaryius Thomas [16 GS]: 99 receptions for 1,247 yards (12.60 YPR, 28 LNG), 8 touchdowns, 8 drops.
Eric Decker [16 GS]: 86 receptions for 1,026 yards (11.93 YPR, 29 LNG), 8 touchdowns, 4 drops.
Ted Ginn Jr. [7 GS]: 13 receptions for 165 yards (12.69 YPR, 24 LNG), 0 touchdowns, 1 drop.

Tight End:
Rob Gronkowski [16 GS]: 81 receptions for 1,045 yards (12.90 YPR, 38 LNG), 11 touchdowns, 2 drops. 13 pancakes.
 

Season 15 (2018) Derek Carr QB
Wide Receivers:
Demaryius Thomas [16 GS]: 103 receptions for 1,275 yards (12.38 YPR, 40 LNG), 10 touchdowns, 3 drops.
Mike Wallace [16 GS]: 70 receptions for 1,031 yards (14.73 YPR, 56 LNG), 8 touchdowns, 6 drops, 1 fumble.
Kenny Stills [16 GS]: 39 receptions for 563 yards (14.44 YPR, 32 LNG), 3 touchdowns, 4 drops.

Tight End:
Rob Gronkowski [16 GS]: 96 receptions for 1,109 yards (11.55 YPR, 37 LNG), 5 touchdowns, 2 drops, 4 fumbles. 6 pancakes.

 

Season 16 (2018) Derek Carr QB
Wide Receivers:
Demaryius Thomas [16 GS]: 80 receptions for 1,193 yards (14.91 YPR, 39 LNG), 6 touchdowns, 5 drops, 2 fumbles.
Michael Crabtree [16 GS]: 96 receptions for 1,258 yards (13.10 YPR, 46 LNG), 7 touchdowns, 5 drops, 2 fumbles.
Kenny Stills [16 GS]: 37 receptions for 436 yards (11.78 YPR, 28 LNG), 4 touchdowns, 6 drops.

Tight End:
Rob Gronkowski [16 GS]: 72 receptions for 812 yards (11.28 YPR, 25 LNG), 10 touchdowns, 3 drops. 12 pancakes.

 

Season 17 (2019) Patrick Mahomes
Wide Receivers:
Marvin Jones [16 GS]: 82 receptions for 1,027 yards (12.52 YPR, 31 LNG), 7 touchdowns, 4 drops.
Robby Anderson [16 GS]: 80 receptions for 1,114 yards (13.93 YPR, 80 LNG), 8 touchdowns, 5 drops.
Nelson Agholor [11 GS]: 29 receptions for 353 yards (12.17 YPR, 28 LNG), 1 touchdown, 9 drops, 1 fumble.

Tight End:
Rob Gronkowski [16 GS]: 84 receptions for 886 yards (10.55 YPR, 48 LNG), 5 touchdowns, 4 drops, 2 fumbles. 19 pancakes.

S13, Thomas was far and away my best receiver, Gronk stepped up big as the #2. Next season, Decker was a better #2 WR, so he ate away at WR1 and TE numbers (also worth noting is apparently had a weak third WR that season). S15, Wallace wasn't as good, and you see the TE numbers go back up for receptions.

S16 is definitely an outliar, with how Crabtree performed as a WR2 in my offense. Gronk slides in firmly as the third target, still good TD production but clear drop-off for catches and yards.

S17, Anderson and Jones weren't as strong lead receivers, so saw Gronk get a few more looks. And then I lost him to retirement.

 

This is all just a snap-shot of one team over a couple of seasons featuring one of the elite TEs at the time, but I think it showcases that TEs eat at the same table as WRs, so it's not reasonable to expect all-world numbers from your TE if you have others taking away from the receiving 'pool' of stats. Then you probably have to consider how many looks your running backs are getting in the receiving game - I've seen some halfbacks eat up 40+ catches in a season, that certainly takes up a chunk of the targets.

TL,DR: TE is a position where you receive diminishing returns based on how good the other receiving targets on the team are. More good targets = Less 'impact' in terms of volume stats, fewer good targets = bigger impact.

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