Why we are not screwed with the cap in 2022 and beyond

[Joe]

I too applaud @Brit Packfor the work put in here. After reading the responses, I do have to agree that the numbers will look differently as the season progresses and I suspect that converting salary into signing bonuses may become a common practice as we rethink our cap strategy. 

I would also say that this is where player development kicks in here. There were lots of players mentioned in @AlexGreen#20's post that shouldn't/won't be all too expensive to bring back; the challenge being WHICH guys to bring back. He also re-iterated how we will most likely be moving on from Lucas Patrick. That logic should be connected to the thought of cutting Billy Turner as well if that action is in the cards. Again, this goes back to player development at what is undoubtedly the strongest position on this team with quite possibly the best coaching staff in the league. Once we lock Jenkins down, it's all about determining who backs up the left side, who the starters will be Center-Right, and who backs up those players. FWIW, I think we're pretty much there already and it's just a matter of time and development to sort that situation out. 

The fact that we haven't extended Davante worries me simply because his price gets higher and higher the longer we wait. Sure, there have been talks but this is probably something that should have happened before last season started - nagging injuries and all. On the other hand, if Cobb is rejuvenated by coming back to Green Bay, I don't see where we couldn't restructure and/or extend him into 2023 to at least 1. Make AR happy. and 2. Mentor whichever WR we're going to draft next year to replace MVS when he probably gets paid more than he should in FA. I would also suspect that ESB, Funchess, and the host of JAGs will be on their way out as well. We also shouldn't be too concerned about Lazard's potential contract. He's a solid WR3 that can flex to WR2 in certain situations; ergo, I doubt he'll command a lot of money and will continue to meet and slightly exceed expectations as a reliably role player. 

Preston Smith is the wild card here IMHO. If he balls out this year, there's no reason to cut or trade him at the end of the season, especially given the fact that Garvin and Randy Ramsey haven't exactly proven anything. I suspect we'll draft a pass-rusher Day 2 next year provided the value is there. Personally, Smith would be the guy I would restructure and extend during the middle of the season. Sure, cutting him creates over $12 mil in cap space, but why do so when you could spread out that $8.35 mil salary into another year and tack on another $7 mil. while his replacement develops?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/preston-smith-16762/

I doubt we're considering cutting him if he isn't misused last year.

TE may be another wild card here due to Tonyan's potential number, the possibility of losing Lewis, and questions surrounding Deguara/Sternberger. Do we go back to the well once more in the draft if Lewis is out, Deguara is pigeon-holed into the H-back role, and Sternberger flops? Sure, we have Dafney, but I seriously doubt the team hangs their hopes on him regardless of his performance this year.

 

The good news is that we've hit on a number of younger players, particularly on the OL, RB, S, and ILB. CB has been iffy, the jury is still out on IDL outside of Kenny, the WR room(again) is full of question marks, and we'd be wise to invest a pick in another pass rusher TBH. If we can have a solid 2022 draft and hit on at least 3 players at CB, IDL, TE, EDGE, and WR between now and 2023 that should relieve any cap concerns IMO.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Joe

[pgwingman]

20 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

The fact that we haven't extended Davante worries me simply because his price gets higher and higher the longer we wait. 

 

 

That might not be true. He expects to be the highest paid WR in the league now, and he'll want that at the end of the season as well.

[AlexGreen#20]

45 minutes ago, Joe said:

I too applaud @Brit Packfor the work put in here. After reading the responses, I do have to agree that the numbers will look differently as the season progresses and I suspect that converting salary into signing bonuses may become a common practice as we rethink our cap strategy. 

I would also say that this is where player development kicks in here. There were lots of players mentioned in @AlexGreen#20's post that shouldn't/won't be all too expensive to bring back; the challenge being WHICH guys to bring back. He also re-iterated how we will most likely be moving on from Lucas Patrick. That logic should be connected to the thought of cutting Billy Turner as well if that action is in the cards. Again, this goes back to player development at what is undoubtedly the strongest position on this team with quite possibly the best coaching staff in the league. Once we lock Jenkins down, it's all about determining who backs up the left side, who the starters will be Center-Right, and who backs up those players. FWIW, I think we're pretty much there already and it's just a matter of time and development to sort that situation out. 

The fact that we haven't extended Davante worries me simply because his price gets higher and higher the longer we wait. Sure, there have been talks but this is probably something that should have happened before last season started - nagging injuries and all. On the other hand, if Cobb is rejuvenated by coming back to Green Bay, I don't see where we couldn't restructure and/or extend him into 2023 to at least 1. Make AR happy. and 2. Mentor whichever WR we're going to draft next year to replace MVS when he probably gets paid more than he should in FA. I would also suspect that ESB, Funchess, and the host of JAGs will be on their way out as well. We also shouldn't be too concerned about Lazard's potential contract. He's a solid WR3 that can flex to WR2 in certain situations; ergo, I doubt he'll command a lot of money and will continue to meet and slightly exceed expectations as a reliably role player. 

Preston Smith is the wild card here IMHO. If he balls out this year, there's no reason to cut or trade him at the end of the season, especially given the fact that Garvin and Randy Ramsey haven't exactly proven anything. I suspect we'll draft a pass-rusher Day 2 next year provided the value is there. Personally, Smith would be the guy I would restructure and extend during the middle of the season. Sure, cutting him creates over $12 mil in cap space, but why do so when you could spread out that $8.35 mil salary into another year and tack on another $7 mil. while his replacement develops?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/preston-smith-16762/

I doubt we're considering cutting him if he isn't misused last year.

TE may be another wild card here due to Tonyan's potential number, the possibility of losing Lewis, and questions surrounding Deguara/Sternberger. Do we go back to the well once more in the draft if Lewis is out, Deguara is pigeon-holed into the H-back role, and Sternberger flops? Sure, we have Dafney, but I seriously doubt the team hangs their hopes on him regardless of his performance this year.

 

The good news is that we've hit on a number of younger players, particularly on the OL, RB, S, and ILB. CB has been iffy, the jury is still out on IDL outside of Kenny, the WR room(again) is full of question marks, and we'd be wise to invest a pick in another pass rusher TBH. If we can have a solid 2022 draft and hit on at least 3 players at CB, IDL, TE, EDGE, and WR between now and 2023 that should relieve any cap concerns IMO.

Why would we cut Turner? What he brings is WAY more valuable than 4 million in savings

[Norm]

52 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why would we cut Turner? What he brings is WAY more valuable than 4 million in savings

I mean, if we're talking about the OP he did pretty much say we shouldn't do it edit: oh I didn't see that novel of a reply that it's probably in

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Norm

[Rodjahs12]

Turner just finished the season playing at a higher level than at any point in his career. Cutting him is completely nonsensical. 

[vegas492]

@Joe Has voiced his opinion concerning Turner's play last year and specifically cited him as the reason why the Tampa game was lost.  He's said it many, many times.

We all have that one player we don't like for whatever reason.  This is just his guy to bag on.  Be it "right" or "wrong".

[Old Guy]

19 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Why would we cut Turner? What he brings is WAY more valuable than 4 million in savings

I could only see that happening is if we had 3 tackles and 4 interior guys who were ahead of him on the depth chart. I do not see the current roster being anywhere close to that kind of depth. 

[Kenrik]

Yup actually not too worried about the cap after reading this.

49 Million over 2022

-19 million Rodgers traded before June 1st

-20 million saved with Za'Darius extension (currently 28 million cap hit 2022)

-12 million if Preston is cut (19 million cap hit in 2022 with 7 in dead cap)

-8.25 million cobb (no dead cap)

 

That puts us at 59 million which is 10 million under the cap Now add in some other smaller extensions or cuts and outside of Adams, MVS and Tonyan we dont have any huge free agents. I think we could go one of two ways next year.

 

1. Push more money down the road and re-sign Adams and try to go all in next year as well.

2. Let Adams walk (3rd round pick), trade Rodgers for a couple top picks, release some of the vets and work on extending young players, let Love get some experience and nail the draft. I'm excited for this option. 

 

Edited July 30, 2021 by Kenrik

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

Yup actually not too worried about the cap after reading this.

49 Million over 2022

-19 million Rodgers traded before June 1st

-20 million saved with Za'Darius extension (currently 28 million cap hit 2022)

-12 million if Preston is cut (19 million cap hit in 2022 with 7 in dead cap)

-8.25 million cobb (no dead cap)

 

That puts us at 59 million which is 10 million under the cap Now add in some other smaller extensions or cuts and outside of Adams, MVS and Tonyan we dont have any huge free agents. I think we could go one of two ways next year.

 

1. Push more money down the road and re-sign Adams and try to go all in next year as well.

2. Let Adams walk (3rd round pick), trade Rodgers for a couple top picks, release some of the vets and work on extending young players, let Love get some experience and nail the draft. I'm excited for this option. 

 

Plus, cap will likely increase, too.

[VonKarman]

Just now, incognito_man said:

Plus, cap will likely increase, too.

No, it won't. They already said that the 208M will be the maximum.

[Rodjahs12]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

@Joe Has voiced his opinion concerning Turner's play last year and specifically cited him as the reason why the Tampa game was lost.  He's said it many, many times.

We all have that one player we don't like for whatever reason.  This is just his guy to bag on.  Be it "right" or "wrong".

Shaquille Barrett makes just about everybody look stupid. He didn't have a good game by any means but ignoring everything he did before that game against other high end pass rushers doesn't make much sense to me.

[vegas492]

8 minutes ago, Rodjahs12 said:

Shaquille Barrett makes just about everybody look stupid. He didn't have a good game by any means but ignoring everything he did before that game against other high end pass rushers doesn't make much sense to me.

Agreed.  I thought Turner was much better last year than he was the year prior.  And he proved his versatility.

[VonKarman]

Regarding the cap, we do not save that much. A few things:

We will likely spend at least 4M more this season between PS and 52nd and 53rd players. We have room for maybe one more guy. The 49M over the cap will probably be around 53 then as it takes the rollover into account.

Another few things:

-Cutting Preston Saves us 11.8M IF he doesn't get 6+ sacks. If he gets to 10 for example it's 2M less as he reaches some incentives.

-Cutting Cobb gives us a 7.5M relief, as you have to add another player that will earn at least 700K

-We are paying Jaire 21M+ per year, so his Year 1 cap hit will be around 9M, rather than 7.

-MVS will earn at least 8M+ depending on how well he plays this year. Tonyan will probably command around 12M per year. Lazard will probably be cheaper, but still.

-Those 49M do not take into account the extra cost of paying draft picks and PS players, so it's another 5M in expenses to add to 2022.

 

We are going to be the new version of the 2021 Saints. It will be "easy" to get under the cap, but the team will be gutted quite considerably.

 

[Norm]

19 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

Tonyan will probably command around 12M

This seems high but I have no idea what the TEs get these days

[VonKarman]

2 minutes ago, Norm said:

This seems high but I have no idea what the TEs get these days

Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry signed for 50M/4Y. The minimum Tonyan will get if he plays decently/well this year will be 40M/4Y and my guess is he'll be close to those contracts.