MWil23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ray Reed said: Yeah i’m pretty sure the fact that Lamar’s Ravens leading the league in T.O.P - in large part due to his role in the running game - has something to do with that. Baker turning it over as frequently as he does probably doesn’t help the scoring defense either. The first two years, sure. The last two, given the fact that Baker's been Top 7 in basically every efficiency rating there is, extremely doubtful. Last year the Browns defense was 31st in the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down defense, and this year they're at the bottom again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Thomas5737 said: I think if you give him an 85 or 86 you have to adjust specific ratings to make it happen. If you just fill in arm strength and accuracy, intangibles and awareness it's going to be near the top of the league. So you have to slight him in some areas to make it work out that he is an 85 or 86 because that is where he is "supposed" to rank. Hard disagree. Intangibles isn’t even a madden thing. Baker’s awareness leaves a lot to be desired. Guy has a penchant for turning the ball over in big moments. His overall rating as a QB is in the 85/86 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Yeah i’m pretty sure the fact that Lamar’s Ravens leading the league in T.O.P - in large part due to his role in the running game - has something to do with that. Baker turning it over as frequently as he does probably doesn’t help the scoring defense either. There was only 18 more plays for the Browns defense last year than the Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, MWil23 said: The first two years, sure. The last two, given the fact that Baker's been Top 7 in basically every efficiency rating there is, extremely doubtful. Last year the Browns defense was 31st in the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down defense, and this year they're at the bottom again. Well yeah, I was going off career considering I was responding to a comment that said “throughout their careers” when talking about Lamar and Baker’s defenses. And in his career in 48 games Baker has thrown 45 INTs and fumbled the ball 22 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thomas5737 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Hard disagree. Intangibles isn’t even a madden thing. Baker’s awareness leaves a lot to be desired. Guy has a penchant for turning the ball over in big moments. His overall rating as a QB is in the 85/86 range. Lamar had more picks last year than Mayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said: There was only 18 more plays for the Browns defense last year than the Ravens. And how many more plays has that defense had to play in their own redzone and on their side of the field because of Baker turnovers? Id bet a lot. Perfect example is last year’s Ravens Browns MNF game when each defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed but the difference in a 47-42 game was Baker throwing the ball right to Tyus Bowser in the 3rd quarter and setting his defense up at their own 1 yard line 🤷🏻♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Just now, Ray Reed said: Well yeah, I was going off career considering I was responding to a comment that said “throughout their careers” when talking about Lamar and Baker’s defenses. And in his career in 48 games Baker has thrown 45 INTs and fumbled the ball 22 times. I'm aware. Considering 35 of those 45 INT came in his first 29 games, and he's only thrown 4 in his last almost season of work, I'll take my chances going forward. As for the fumbles, that's somewhat valid, so long as you hate on Josh Allen and his 33 fumbles and also mention Lamar's 34 fumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said: Lamar had more picks last year than Mayfield. What about fumbles? Look idk what to say at this point, it is what it is. I’ve already said in this thread that I think Mayfield is a 12-15 guy which in this league still means he’s pretty damn good. If you as a Browns fan think he’s top 10 awesome. You just need to understand/get over the fact that the rest of the football world doesn’t view him that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, MWil23 said: I'm aware. Considering 35 of those 45 INT came in his first 29 games, and he's only thrown 4 in his last almost season of work, I'll take my chances going forward. As for the fumbles, that's somewhat valid, so long as you hate on Josh Allen and his 33 fumbles and also mention Lamar's 34 fumbles. Trust me Lamar’s fumbles drive me crazy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: What about fumbles? https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-by-a-qb-since-2018 (Mayfield is 13th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, MWil23 said: The first two years, sure. The last two, given the fact that Baker's been Top 7 in basically every efficiency rating there is, extremely doubtful. Last year the Browns defense was 31st in the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down defense, and this year they're at the bottom again. Where do you guys get that ? I don't see this at all. DVOA he was 17th last year. ESPN's QBR ... which I'm not sure is even an efficiency ranking given nobody knows how its calculated.. he was 10th for the year. epa / cpoe composite I have him at 14th, 12th in epa per play, 11th in unadjusted epa, 13th in success rate, 19th in cpoe https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-fumbles-by-a-qb-since-2018 (Mayfield is 13th) Ok then to answer @Thomas5737 question it’s probably not the fumbles but more likely the 45 vs 20 INT line when comparing Mayfield/Jackson. Sidenote that website is awesome, is that new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Forge said: Where do you guys get that ? I don't see this at all. DVOA he was 17th last year. ESPN's QBR ... which I'm not sure is even an efficiency ranking given nobody knows how its calculated.. he was 10th for the year. epa / cpoe composite I have him at 14th, 12th in epa per play, 11th in unadjusted epa, 13th in success rate, 19th in cpoe https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ He's #1 this year in a lot of those ratings, and the #7 mark was the context of what I said in regards to the last half of the 2020 season and the first two games of this year. https://www.si.com/nfl/browns/browns-maven-features/a-tale-of-two-mayfields I think you'd actually enjoy this read. Passing Grade BTT% TWP% Weeks 1-6 (26th in the NFL) 57.3 3.9% 5.6% Weeks 7-DP (2nd in the NFL) 91.8 6.6% 1.6% Passing Grade BTT% TWP% Adj Completion % Weeks 1-6 (31st) 50.1 18.2% 22.7% 44.4% Weeks 7-DP (1st) 96.2 39.6% 4.2% 55.8% Intermediate Passing PFF Passing Grade BTT% TWP% Adj Completion % Weeks 1-6 (30th) 61.3 2.4% 4.8% 57.5% Weeks 7-DP (8th) 92.4 8.1% 2.0% 68.9% Short Passing PFF Passing Grade BTT% TWP% Adjusted Completion % Weeks 1-6 (24th) 67.3 2.4% 3.6% 84.0% Weeks 7-DP (4th) 84.4 0.0% 0.6% 81.6% Baker improved at all levels of depth, including being the leagues most accurate deep passer over his final 12 games. QB % of pressures allowed Pressures Sacks Weeks 1-6 31.7% 13 4 Weeks 7-DP 16.2% 9 3 In addition to avoiding poor decisions that lead to pressure, recognizing and reacting to blitzes is also a part of performing well vs pressure. Baker showed one of the biggest improvements we’ve seen in this split. Baker went from 35th in the league against the blitz his first six games to the best in the NFL (by a substantial margin) over his last twelve. This narrative is one of the reasons it was worth taking a deep dive into Bakers performance just ahead of the 2021 season. It is also important to note the circumstances under which Baker played what was by far his best stretch of professional football. Entering 2020, Mayfield was tasked with learning his 3rd Offensive system under his 4th head coach and 4th offensive coordinator without the benefit of a normal NFL camp while having no preseason games to prepare for the regular season. In week 5 Mayfield and Jarvis Landry suffered cracked rib injuries which both played through for the remainder of the season. Nick Chubb, Wyatt Teller, Jed Wills and Joel Bitonio missed a combined 7 games during this stretch. Odell Beckham Jr missed all 12 with his knee injury. When WR Odell Beckham Jr. was lost for the season to an ACL tear, the Browns didn't just lose one of the NFL’s best WR’s, they lost the only explosive vertical threat on their roster, and defenses adjusted accordingly. This is in part why Baker's EPA numbers, while one of the NFL’s best over that stretch, do not line up perfectly with Baker’s grading. The Browns played three straight home games in extreme wind conditions that made passing untenable, to the point where opposing quarterbacks DeShaun Watson, Derek Carr, and Carson Wentz combined for just 509 passing yards over those three games. In Week 16 the entire Browns WR room was put into COVID-19 protocol days before the game. The Browns active roster for this game had only practice squad players at WR as a result. These circumstances are noted not to make someone feel bad for the Browns or Mayfield, but to point out that this stretch of play by Mayfield did not occur under ideal conditions. By way of injuries and circumstance, Baker's supporting cast was objectively worse in the final twelve games than it was over the first six. But let it be known in the case that Baker does in fact continue where he left off in 2020, posting a top five season in PFF grade, EPA, and QBR - he deserves full, unqualified credit for that success given we’ve already seen him post those numbers for an extended period of time with lesser surrounding talent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 So we are just ignoring nearly half the season? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Ok then to answer @Thomas5737 question it’s probably not the fumbles but more likely the 45 vs 20 INT line when comparing Mayfield/Jackson. 6 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Sidenote that website is awesome, is that new It's been a nice new find for me personally. You can ask a lot of questions and use a lot of analytics data to find things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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