Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[NYRaider]

9 hours ago, MWil23 said:

When it comes to efficiency, TD, and INT? I get it, you hate Mayfield and will cherry pick whatever you want, it's fine. 

I don't hate Baker, I think he's definitely in the top half of the league in terms of top QB's. But when you're comparing guys like Baker, Carr, Tannehill etc. You're grasping at straws to say one is significantly better than the others. The only reason that I even entered this discussion was because a Browns fan dragged Carr and said that Baker is significantly better. I give Baker credit for coming into Cleveland and being one of the key aspects of the shift in the teams culture from being a bottom feeder to being a playoff level team/contender. He's probably one of the few QB's in the league who's spot is secure for the foreseeable future.

When you look at Carr/Baker's first 3 seasons there are a lot of parallels. Both players went to franchises that hadn't won much or had good/consistent QB play for like a decade. Both played on bad teams as rookies, the team showed progress in year 2, and then they led their team to the playoffs in year 3. Even statistically their play is eerily similar...

Carr (22-25): 11,194 yards (61% comp), 81 TD, 31 INT

Baker (23-22): 11,115 yards (62% comp), 75 TD, 43 INT

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

People can cherry pick passing stats when comparing Baker/Lamar but Lamar's game is much more then just passing. Since Lamar took over as the starter the Ravens are 31-8 with their offense averaging 30.4 ppg, since Baker took over as starter the Browns are 24-23 with their offense averaging 23.4 ppg.

That's team points per game not offensive points per game I'm assuming. Ravens D and ST scored 4 or 5 TDs his rookie season.

Ravens scored 3 more TD than the Browns on offense last year. Scored several less in 2018. 2019 there was a huge difference in favor of the Ravens and that is pretty much the season most determine the value of each QB for whatever reason.

I'd have Lamar above Baker as overall QB ranking at this time but I would not even consider trading QBs because I believe that will shift the other direction in time and I already have Baker well ahead in terms of just passing. Lamar is just crazy good running which does have an expiration date.

[NudeTayne]

Baker Mayfield >>> Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson = more accurate Lamar Miller

Spoiler

Get your Lamars out of the Baker thread! 😠😡😤

 

[Soggust]

Just to pour some more gasoline on this fire-

Baker reminds me a lot of (prime) Alex Smith:

• The dude is a winner. Comes to a failing franchise and maybe wasn't the sole reason for turnaround, but certainly helped improve the culture and win games. To do it in CLE is exponentially impressive.
• Perennial Top 15ish QB who was a former #1 overall pick. They also coincidentally share stretches of MVPish-caliber play (Bakers second half of 2020 and Smith's first 7 games of 2017). 
• Considered by many to be a game manager. Before CLE fans destroy me here, I am purely speaking from a "how much are they asked to throw/does the offense start with them" perspective. This is not a "Baker has a noodle arm like Alex Smith" take. Obviously they play completely differently, but similarly are on teams where the best (and usually first) option is the RB.
• Prime Smith seems like a reasonable Baker stat line. In 2017, Smith threw for 4000 yards, with a 26:5 TD/INT with a 67.5% CMP. That sounds to me like what most people are expecting a good ceiling for Baker to be. Maybe Baker gets closer to 30-35 TDs with a few more picks but I think overall it's pretty in line with what we are expecting from him.

Cleveland fans are prolly going to be upset because everyone hates on Smith, but as a Chiefs fan I actually say this as a complement. Smith was one of the best things to happen to the Chiefs franchise and most people in KC consider him very dearly. Maybe he wasn't Brady or Manning but he certainly wasn't the reason we failed and was, overall, a really great QB for us. At least with Baker, you have the upside and potential to be even more where as Smith was clearly later in his career with us. 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Soggust

[buno67]

7 hours ago, Soggust said:

Just to pour some more gasoline on this fire-

Baker reminds me a lot of (prime) Alex Smith:

• The dude is a winner. Comes to a failing franchise and maybe wasn't the sole reason for turnaround, but certainly helped improve the culture and win games. To do it in CLE is exponentially impressive.
• Perennial Top 15ish QB who was a former #1 overall pick. They also coincidentally share stretches of MVPish-caliber play (Bakers second half of 2020 and Smith's first 7 games of 2017). 
• Considered by many to be a game manager. Before CLE fans destroy me here, I am purely speaking from a "how much are they asked to throw/does the offense start with them" perspective. This is not a "Baker has a noodle arm like Alex Smith" take. Obviously they play completely differently, but similarly are on teams where the best (and usually first) option is the RB.
• Prime Smith seems like a reasonable Baker stat line. In 2017, Smith threw for 4000 yards, with a 26:5 TD/INT with a 67.5% CMP. That sounds to me like what most people are expecting a good ceiling for Baker to be. Maybe Baker gets closer to 30-35 TDs with a few more picks but I think overall it's pretty in line with what we are expecting from him.

Cleveland fans are prolly going to be upset because everyone hates on Smith, but as a Chiefs fan I actually say this as a complement. Smith was one of the best things to happen to the Chiefs franchise and most people in KC consider him very dearly. Maybe he wasn't Brady or Manning but he certainly wasn't the reason we failed and was, overall, a really great QB for us. At least with Baker, you have the upside and potential to be even more where as Smith was clearly later in his career with us. 

You cant even hate on Smith. A lot to do with Playing QB is getting paired up with a good HC. Smith never had that until he was with Harbs/Roman than Andy Reid. Baker was heading down that route until the browns finally got it right with Stefanski. Big difference between the two is Baker has a better arm, where Smith could make more plays with his feet. 
 

I do disagree with the game manager aspect. Yeah the browns have an amazing RB duo but last year, once Baker and Stef settled into the offense, It seemed like they were passing it more than running and they got away with that because they were so efficient at running the ball. So far this year it’s been a efficient dangerous attack. Believe the browns currently have the top DVOA rushing attack and the 11th passing attack, while throwing the 2nd fewest passes for any team this year so far. Also it’s not like the offense is protecting baker with easy passes and dump offs 

 

baker is ripping the ball down field when the plays are being called. 

 

[MWil23]

15 hours ago, NYRaider said:

People can cherry pick passing stats when comparing Baker/Lamar but Lamar's game is much more then just passing.

This is easily the most obvious statement I've ever seen. Lamar may win the rushing title this year.

15 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Since Lamar took over as the starter the Ravens are 31-8 with their offense averaging 30.4 ppg, since Baker took over as starter the Browns are 24-23 with their offense averaging 23.4 ppg.

Now, let's look at the offensive output with both of those guys before they took over, and the exponential increase in wins after Baker took over in comparison to before that.

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Now, let's look at the offensive output with both of those guys before they took over, and the exponential increase in wins after Baker took over in comparison to before that.

The Browns also traded for OBJ/Landry, drafted Chubb/Njoku, and signed Kareem Hunt around the same time they drafted Baker. If you swapped their situations and Baker had to play with Brown/Andrews/Dobbins/Edwards while Lamar got to play with Chubb/Hunt/OBJ/Landry, do you think Baker would elevate that group into a top tier scoring offense? 

 

[MWil23]

Just now, NYRaider said:

The Browns also traded for OBJ/Landry, drafted Chubb/Njoku, and signed Kareem Hunt around the same time they drafted Baker.

I find it funny that Njoku is somehow included here, and Hunt and OBJ were the year after Baker (and OBJ has missed half the time due to injury), and Hunt couldn't even play until halfway through his second season.

Just now, NYRaider said:

If you swapped their situations and Baker had to play with Brown/Andrews/Dobbins/Edwards while Lamar got to play with Chubb/Hunt/OBJ/Landry, do you think Baker would elevate that group into a top tier scoring offense? 

 

No idea. Hard to say given how Baltimore is 100% built around Lamar's ability to run the football. To be blunt, I'm not sure Lamar does better throwing the ball if he has OBJ or Landry.

Considering Baker's rookie season and output with the guys at WR for the Browns outside of Landry, and the same for last year, I feel as though he wouldn't fall much/if at all in that category. Obviously the RB situation would drastically impact things.

I'd also take Baltimore's defense, their ability to force turnovers/get to the QB as a unit, and the favorable scoring output differential as a result.

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I find it funny that Njoku is somehow included here, and Hunt and OBJ were the year after Baker (and OBJ has missed half the time due to injury), and Hunt couldn't even play until halfway through his second season.

No idea. Hard to say given how Baltimore is 100% built around Lamar's ability to run the football. To be blunt, I'm not sure Lamar does better throwing the ball if he has OBJ or Landry.

They fundamentally changed the way they played going from Flacco to Lamar because he's probably the most dynamic player in the league. Regardless though, with Lamar the Ravens have had an elite offense despite him not being a great passer. We've yet to see the Browns have a top 10 scoring offense with Baker despite having an elite running game. 

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, buno67 said:

You cant even hate on Smith. A lot to do with Playing QB is getting paired up with a good HC. Smith never had that until he was with Harbs/Roman than Andy Reid. Baker was heading down that route until the browns finally got it right with Stefanski. Big difference between the two is Baker has a better arm, where Smith could make more plays with his feet. 
 

I do disagree with the game manager aspect. Yeah the browns have an amazing RB duo but last year, once Baker and Stef settled into the offense, It seemed like they were passing it more than running and they got away with that because they were so efficient at running the ball. So far this year it’s been a efficient dangerous attack. Believe the browns currently have the top DVOA rushing attack and the 11th passing attack, while throwing the 2nd fewest passes for any team this year so far. Also it’s not like the offense is protecting baker with easy passes and dump offs 

baker is ripping the ball down field when the plays are being called. 

 

I think our disagreement around the "Game Manager" term is perhaps based on definition. You seem to be pointing out success/efficiency, where as I'm only talking about opportunities. The fact Baker has the second fewest passes this year should be my argument =p. 

Since coming into the league, Baker has been 17th, 12th, and 17th in passing attempts (I'm sure you can guess which year he was 12th). This strikes me as especially low, considering he's been relatively healthy throughout his tenure. He's had two years < 240 Passing YPG. One was 2019, which I think is fair to ignore, but the other was 2020. In fact, he was literally throwing for ~220 YPG last year (24th).

It's not that Baker can't be great with more attempts or even that he hasn't been good when asked (that's been debated for 32 pages lol). It's that he hasn't had the opportunity to demonstrate the offense running primarily through him, or been consistently relied upon to create offense as a lot of other QBs in the league are. That's all I'm saying.

[NYRaider]

24 minutes ago, Soggust said:

 It's that he hasn't had the opportunity to demonstrate the offense running primarily through him, or been consistently relied upon to create offense as a lot of other QBs in the league are. That's all I'm saying.

I wonder why? Do you think he has Mahomes/Allen type of ability but the coaching staff is just holding him back?

[MSURacerDT55]

[MSURacerDT55]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

The Browns also traded for OBJ/Landry, drafted Chubb/Njoku, and signed Kareem Hunt around the same time they drafted Baker. If you swapped their situations and Baker had to play with Brown/Andrews/Dobbins/Edwards while Lamar got to play with Chubb/Hunt/OBJ/Landry, do you think Baker would elevate that group into a top tier scoring offense? 

 

Bruh, Baker was the reason Hollywood Brown and Andrews were drafted so high, what do you think?

Edited September 24, 2021 by MSURacerDT55

[Rod Johnson]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

They fundamentally changed the way they played going from Flacco to Lamar because he's probably the most dynamic player in the league. Regardless though, with Lamar the Ravens have had an elite offense despite him not being a great passer. We've yet to see the Browns have a top 10 scoring offense with Baker despite having an elite running game. 

We have one right now baby

[Soggust]

28 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I wonder why? Do you think he has Mahomes/Allen type of ability but the coaching staff is just holding him back?

I mean, there is probably a grain of truth in what you are saying, but I think it could just be offensive philosophy.

Looking at a couple top 15ish QBs**** who had elite/excellent running games in 2020 and comparing their team's pass %:

#22 - 56.23%    Rodgers/Jones
#27 - 54.25%    Cousins/Cook
#30 - 49.72%   Tannehill/Henry
---
#29 - 52.22%    Mayfield/Chubb

Maybe they would throw it a bit more if Baker was secretly Tom Brady, but I actually don't think the Browns' splits are super out of line (although they are certainly run-heavy by today's standards)

**** Excluding Lamar because, obv