Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[NYRaider]

17 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

The omission of 6 TD and 1 INT noted. I'm not sure how 5 turnovers by Pittsburgh has anything to do with Mayfield's 3 TD and 0 INT performance.

You don't think he benefited from a short field created by the defense forcing turnovers?

[SBLIII]

37 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

Thank you

We face some tough sledding 

That said if we hold MVP voting right now where does Mayfield finish?

12th to 15th feels right. If he finishes with 30 TDs and 8 picks and the Browns go 14-3 I could see him having a shot but both is unlikely imo.

[Forge]

45 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

As opposed to every other QB that racks up W's against bad teams? 

I mean, its pretty common knowledge that most all QBs have a losing record against teams with winning records, right? I remember a few years ago I think Brady and Big Ben were the only 2 QBs in the entire NFL that had a winning record against winning teams. 

I believe that there are 6 now. Jimmy G is one of them which is kind of funny. Jimmy G, Russell, Mahomes, Lamar, Brady and Big Ben. 

Aaron Rodgers has only a .424 winning percentage againt winning teams since 2012 and is under .500 since the start of his career (Around .460) 

[Forge]

40 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

my issue with this thread title is that him "cementing" himself as a top 10 QB implicitly implies that he already is basically considered one, but is sort of tenuously considered to be there.

 

It's been my biggest criticism of the thread as well. He's in a tier that could easily finish in the top 10 on any given season, but could also finish 15th on any given season. I think it takes a couple of years to crawl out of that tier once you put yourself in it. I definitely don't think that he can "cement" himself in there when I don't believe that he's been a top 10 QB for an entire season at any point in his career. 

41 minutes ago, Turnobili said:

the knock on a lot of QBs is that they only become good in certain situations... good OL, good run game, good weapons, etc. remember all the knocks on Dak, Wilson early on. but Baker basically already has all that, but hasn't been able to take that offense to the next level yet. 

 

I say this a lot. Most QBs are their situation. No shame in that. Baker is one of those guys just like Kirk and Derek and Jimmy and likely whatever other guys you want to throw in that situation. 

[Ray Reed]

7 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

12th to 15th feels right. If he finishes with 30 TDs and 8 picks and the Browns go 14-3 I could see him having a shot but both is unlikely imo.

Here's the thing.

12th-15th in the league at this moment is still a pretty damn good QB haha the QB talent is the best its been in years.

I just think Browns fans finally want a QB they can definitively call a "top 10" guy because its been so long and they've had nothing but trash to deal with at QB for 20 years.

And that's not in an insulting way I just think that plays into the psychology of it; wanting the label of top ten really badly.

Edited September 22, 2021 by Ray Reed

[mtmmike]

11 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

12th to 15th feels right. If he finishes with 30 TDs and 8 picks and the Browns go 14-3 I could see him having a shot but both is unlikely imo.

Excellent point 

[mtmmike]

8 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Here's the thing.

12th-15th in the league at this moment is still a pretty damn good QB haha the QB talent is the best its been in years.

I just think Browns fans finally want a QB they can definitively call a "top 10" guy because its been so long and they've had nothing but trash to deal with at QB for 20 years.

And that's not in an insulting way I just think that plays into the psychology of it; wanting the label of top ten really badly.

Excellent point right now Mayfield is the 7th ranked qb in the Nfl.

He is also in front of many of Mannings records at this point in his career as well as Steve Young and Troy Aikman with both of them having Hof coaches and Hof Wide receiveNFL.

 

[SBLIII]

6 minutes ago, mtmmike said:

Excellent point right now Mayfield is the 7th ranked qb in the Nfl.

He is also in front of many of Mannings records at this point in his career as well as Steve Young and Troy Aikman with both of them having Hof coaches and Hof Wide receiveNFL.

 

So you are too lazy to adjust for eras?

And you are a Browns fan, so.

[mtmmike]

22 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

So you are too lazy to adjust for eras?

And you are a Browns fan.

Ok so let's look

Manning had a hof wide receiver

Should we adjust his numbers down if he plays with Schwartz and Donovan peoples jones.

Also Manning played with the best receiving Tailback in history 

Ailman played with Michael irvin and the all time leading rusher do we adjust his numbers if he plays Cleveland. 

Ok then I get to have Mayfield coached by Bill Walsh, Andy Reid,

Plus throwing to Jerry Rice his whole career.

 

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

Baker's the GOAT of beating bad 

[Tk3]

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Baker just dropped 2 slots in my rankings

[Mr Raider]

If I were ranking QBs today based on how I view them today based on what they have shown in the past and their trajectory, I would say my rough list would look like this. 

The elite tier. 

1. Patrick Mahomes 

2. Russell Wilson

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Tom Brady

5. Deshaun Watson (obviously excluded for the time being).

The great but not quite elite tier. Though obviously some of these guys are right there and could be there in my eyes as soon as the end of this year, or have had single seasons that I would absolutely classify as elite. But for me to say you are an elite QB overall consistency is key. 

6. Lamar Jackson

7. Dak Prescott

8. Ryan Tannehill

The franchise QB cuttoff tier (meaning the guys right now today I have seen enough on the NFL field where I am sold they are a franchise QB). Most of these guys have had at least a seasons worth of play at a great or even elite level, but I need to see it done over more than a season, or a season here and there. And also guys like Ben, Matt Ryan and such at one point were definitely franchise QBs and would be listed here, but they aren't that going forward in my mind. 

9. Josh Allen

10. Derek Carr

11. Matt Stafford

12. Kirk Cousins

13. Kyler Murray

14. Baker Mayfield 

15. Justin Herbert

I won't bother listing any more because it isn't necessary for the discussion. As far as the subject of whether Baker will cement himself as a top 10 QB by the end of the season, my answer would be no. But it would be no for the same reasons others have mentioned in this thread. To say someone has cemented themselves inside the top 10 QBs of the NFL that to me means that is clear and absolute. That at worst they have shown enough growth, consistency, leadership, and overall success that they are locked in as at worst the 10th best QB in the league. 

And IMO that is something that is pretty dang hard to do. Like as of today I would say the only QBs currently that I have cemented as top 10 guys are Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Watson (if/when he is playing again), and Jackson. Prescott would also be on that list for me as I believe he is one of the more underrated great/sure fire franchise guys but he is still only 2 games removed from a relatively serious injury so I wouldn't even say he's a lock top 10 guy by year's end currently. I just think playing QB at the NFL level is really really hard. You have to constantly be growing and improving because the rest of the league is. And you are playing the most important position in the game with every team focused on making sure you specifically play as worst as possible. There only 5-8 guys at any time that I would say have shown me so much over an extended period of time to say there isn't a doubt in my mind there aren't 10 guys better than them.

Now on the subject of Baker specifically, none of that at all means that I don't believe he could be 9th or 10th or whatever in my eyes by years end. It's absolutely possible. Which kind of represents the point. I would say it's an extremely long shot that he could play well enough to overtake Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, or Brady. Those guys are just the elite, proven dudes for years and in cases like Brady and Rodgers been doing it past the time you would realistically expect so I am not going to predict they fall off the cliff now. 

So that leaves Jackson, Prescott, Allen, Tannehill, Carr, Stafford, Murray as the guys in front of him that he would need to surpass to be viewed as a top 10 guy. Is that possible? Absolutely. I think it's perfectly in reason to believe that Baker has the individual talent, talent around him, and coaching to be a better QB than those guys this season. It's also possible Herbert puts together another stellar season in year 2 and is viewed more favorably in my eyes because his trajectory has continued on the upward swing. 

If I am talking just from my personal predictions/expectations for guys around the league do I believe Baker will be inside my top 10 at the end of the season? My answer would be probably not. I expect the elite guys to continue to play at that elite level, I predicted before the season that the Bills and Titans would both be in that 12 win range, in large part because of how highly I think of Tannehill overall in that offensive situation, and how impressed I was by Allen last season and how much I respect what has been built there in Buffalo. I also predicted Lamar to be somewhere in between his MVP year and last season leading the Ravens to win the North. I thought Dak would come back and probably win comeback player of the year putting up crazy numbers because the Dallas defense would force them into a bunch of shoot outs. I thought Carr was in for a terrific year where he would get a lot of credit for leading the Raiders to 10 wins and a playoff appearance. Stafford I said would make such a big impact I predicted the Rams to go to the super bowl where they would lose to the Chiefs. And I said the Cardinals would have similar a similar record to the Browns (within a game or two) in large part because of Murray having a very good year taking another step but still being a year away from the playoffs because of a tough division and my lack of belief that Kingsbury is for sure the right man for the job. 

I could easily be wrong about some or quite a few of those things. Baker absolutely has the necessary talent, tools, coaching, and team around him to put together a great year that puts him squarely inside my top 10. I don't feel confident in predicting it to happen because I just believe/trust/like what I have seen from the guys I have in front of him more but it's not like there's a ridiculous gap in individual talent or abilities between the guys between 6-15 on my list. I wouldn't argue too much with people that say Baker is currently better than Carr, Murray, or Stafford. Ultimately that's kind of the point. The QBs in that 6-15 range is always fluctuating, it's pretty fluid. Baker has top 10 talent. He has shown flashes of brilliance. He's shown areas of concern. I am confident in saying he's the Browns franchise QB for the foreseeable future. Do I think he's a lock top 10 QB at the end of this year? Nope. But in my eyes there's only a select handful of QBs I would say are. 

[NYRaider]

4 hours ago, Tk3 said:

Baker just dropped 2 slots in my rankings

Baker has top 10 QB swag though

[NYRaider]

5 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Here's the thing.

12th-15th in the league at this moment is still a pretty damn good QB haha the QB talent is the best its been in years.

I just think Browns fans finally want a QB they can definitively call a "top 10" guy because its been so long and they've had nothing but trash to deal with at QB for 20 years.

And that's not in an insulting way I just think that plays into the psychology of it; wanting the label of top ten really badly.

Baker lost 7 games his rookie season, Lamar Jackson has lost 8 games in the same span of time. Dude is not even close to being an elite QB.

[NYRaider]

5 hours ago, mtmmike said:

Excellent point right now Mayfield is the 7th ranked qb in the Nfl.

He is also in front of many of Mannings records at this point in his career as well as Steve Young and Troy Aikman with both of them having Hof coaches and Hof Wide receiveNFL.

 

Mac Jones has more wins through 2 games then Tom Brady, top 10 QB.

[mtmmike]

9 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Mac Jones has more wins through 2 games then Tom Brady, top 10 QB.

Thank you have a nice day.