Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[Thomas5737]

 

[MWil23]

16 hours ago, NYRaider said:

You don't think he benefited from a short field created by the defense forcing turnovers?

When it comes to efficiency, TD, and INT? I get it, you hate Mayfield and will cherry pick whatever you want, it's fine. 

[MWil23]

11 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Baker lost 7 games his rookie season, Lamar Jackson has lost 8 games in the same span of time. Dude is not even close to being an elite QB.

LOL

Dude was drafted onto the worst roster in the NFL coming off an 0-16 season, and 1-15 the year before, whereas Lamar was drafted onto a playoff roster. Holding young quarterbacks to a threshold of wins and losses is completely asinine, especially as rookies. That's a joke dude.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

At least with Baker the talent is there, and has been from the first day. It's just a matter of him being a more polished passer. Not sure if he'll ever be an All Pro type player, but I think play good enough for the Browns to give him that second mega contract. That franchise finally found a good trigger-ace for the first time since Bernie Kosar suited up. As with the Bills, they're going to lock him down. Wouldn't fault them one bit. Also, Mayfield doesn't have to worry about playing under a head coach that shouldn't be a head coach. Stefanski seems like the right guy for the job. 

[MWil23]

13 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

Also, Mayfield doesn't have to worry about playing under a head coach that shouldn't be a head coach.

...ANYMORE

And to be frank, those of us who are major Baker apologists without a doubt point to that and his upward trajectory. Those who hate on him or are cold on him use the Kitchens year and first half of 2020 (during Covid, new scheme/coach) as justification. They're well within their right(s) to do so, but at some point, scheme and coaching matters.

[Ray Reed]

39 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

LOL

Dude was drafted onto the worst roster in the NFL coming off an 0-16 season, and 1-15 the year before, whereas Lamar was drafted onto a playoff roster. Holding young quarterbacks to a threshold of wins and losses is completely asinine, especially as rookies. That's a joke dude.

That team was 4-5 under Flacco when Lamar came in mid-season and was 30th in rushing.

The Ravens were better than the Browns, for sure, but let's not act like Lamar didn't inherit a team that had gone 8-8, 9-7, and 4-5 in the prior 3 years with 0 playoff appearances. 

 

[Ray Reed]

If you were to give Baker an accurate "Madden Rating" right now, what would you give him? Like, 85/86 range?

His only problem is that there are like 10+ QBs in the league right now I'd give a 90/92ish or above. He's still a good QB who can win you games if he needs to and plays very well within his system.

[MWil23]

27 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

That team was 4-5 under Flacco when Lamar came in mid-season and was 30th in rushing.

The Ravens were better than the Browns, for sure, but let's not act like Lamar didn't inherit a team that had gone 8-8, 9-7, and 4-5 in the prior 3 years with 0 playoff appearances. 

 

I forgot that you missed the playoffs in 2017 due to a last second TD against the Bengals. Still, inheriting a team with some basic building blocks and talent, compared to a 1-33-1 roster is completely ludicrous to have the same win/loss standard.

I'd argue that Baker having a winning record as a starter, including a playoff win, and the fact that he had a chance to get that team into the playoffs his rookie year until Week 16, is a statement in and of itself.

The same goes for Josh Allen (playoff roster and appearance), and we could be seeing firsthand with Sam Darnold that perhaps he wasn't as bad as a lot of people thought.

[Ray Reed]

6 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I forgot that you missed the playoffs in 2017 due to a last second TD against the Bengals. Still, inheriting a team with some basic building blocks and talent, compared to a 1-33-1 roster is completely ludicrous to have the same win/loss standard.

I'd argue that Baker having a winning record as a starter, including a playoff win, and the fact that he had a chance to get that team into the playoffs his rookie year until Week 16, is a statement in and of itself.

The same goes for Josh Allen (playoff roster and appearance), and we could be seeing firsthand with Sam Darnold that perhaps he wasn't as bad as a lot of people thought.

Agreed on that for sure

[Hunter2_1]

14 hours ago, Mr Raider said:

If I were ranking QBs today based on how I view them today based on what they have shown in the past and their trajectory, I would say my rough list would look like this. 

The elite tier. 

1. Patrick Mahomes 

2. Russell Wilson

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Tom Brady

5. Deshaun Watson (obviously excluded for the time being).

The great but not quite elite tier. Though obviously some of these guys are right there and could be there in my eyes as soon as the end of this year, or have had single seasons that I would absolutely classify as elite. But for me to say you are an elite QB overall consistency is key. 

6. Lamar Jackson

7. Dak Prescott

8. Ryan Tannehill

The franchise QB cuttoff tier (meaning the guys right now today I have seen enough on the NFL field where I am sold they are a franchise QB). Most of these guys have had at least a seasons worth of play at a great or even elite level, but I need to see it done over more than a season, or a season here and there. And also guys like Ben, Matt Ryan and such at one point were definitely franchise QBs and would be listed here, but they aren't that going forward in my mind. 

9. Josh Allen

10. Derek Carr

11. Matt Stafford

12. Kirk Cousins

13. Kyler Murray

14. Baker Mayfield 

15. Justin Herbert

I won't bother listing any more because it isn't necessary for the discussion. As far as the subject of whether Baker will cement himself as a top 10 QB by the end of the season, my answer would be no. But it would be no for the same reasons others have mentioned in this thread. To say someone has cemented themselves inside the top 10 QBs of the NFL that to me means that is clear and absolute. That at worst they have shown enough growth, consistency, leadership, and overall success that they are locked in as at worst the 10th best QB in the league. 

And IMO that is something that is pretty dang hard to do. Like as of today I would say the only QBs currently that I have cemented as top 10 guys are Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, Watson (if/when he is playing again), and Jackson. Prescott would also be on that list for me as I believe he is one of the more underrated great/sure fire franchise guys but he is still only 2 games removed from a relatively serious injury so I wouldn't even say he's a lock top 10 guy by year's end currently. I just think playing QB at the NFL level is really really hard. You have to constantly be growing and improving because the rest of the league is. And you are playing the most important position in the game with every team focused on making sure you specifically play as worst as possible. There only 5-8 guys at any time that I would say have shown me so much over an extended period of time to say there isn't a doubt in my mind there aren't 10 guys better than them.

Now on the subject of Baker specifically, none of that at all means that I don't believe he could be 9th or 10th or whatever in my eyes by years end. It's absolutely possible. Which kind of represents the point. I would say it's an extremely long shot that he could play well enough to overtake Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers, or Brady. Those guys are just the elite, proven dudes for years and in cases like Brady and Rodgers been doing it past the time you would realistically expect so I am not going to predict they fall off the cliff now. 

So that leaves Jackson, Prescott, Allen, Tannehill, Carr, Stafford, Murray as the guys in front of him that he would need to surpass to be viewed as a top 10 guy. Is that possible? Absolutely. I think it's perfectly in reason to believe that Baker has the individual talent, talent around him, and coaching to be a better QB than those guys this season. It's also possible Herbert puts together another stellar season in year 2 and is viewed more favorably in my eyes because his trajectory has continued on the upward swing. 

If I am talking just from my personal predictions/expectations for guys around the league do I believe Baker will be inside my top 10 at the end of the season? My answer would be probably not. I expect the elite guys to continue to play at that elite level, I predicted before the season that the Bills and Titans would both be in that 12 win range, in large part because of how highly I think of Tannehill overall in that offensive situation, and how impressed I was by Allen last season and how much I respect what has been built there in Buffalo. I also predicted Lamar to be somewhere in between his MVP year and last season leading the Ravens to win the North. I thought Dak would come back and probably win comeback player of the year putting up crazy numbers because the Dallas defense would force them into a bunch of shoot outs. I thought Carr was in for a terrific year where he would get a lot of credit for leading the Raiders to 10 wins and a playoff appearance. Stafford I said would make such a big impact I predicted the Rams to go to the super bowl where they would lose to the Chiefs. And I said the Cardinals would have similar a similar record to the Browns (within a game or two) in large part because of Murray having a very good year taking another step but still being a year away from the playoffs because of a tough division and my lack of belief that Kingsbury is for sure the right man for the job. 

I could easily be wrong about some or quite a few of those things. Baker absolutely has the necessary talent, tools, coaching, and team around him to put together a great year that puts him squarely inside my top 10. I don't feel confident in predicting it to happen because I just believe/trust/like what I have seen from the guys I have in front of him more but it's not like there's a ridiculous gap in individual talent or abilities between the guys between 6-15 on my list. I wouldn't argue too much with people that say Baker is currently better than Carr, Murray, or Stafford. Ultimately that's kind of the point. The QBs in that 6-15 range is always fluctuating, it's pretty fluid. Baker has top 10 talent. He has shown flashes of brilliance. He's shown areas of concern. I am confident in saying he's the Browns franchise QB for the foreseeable future. Do I think he's a lock top 10 QB at the end of this year? Nope. But in my eyes there's only a select handful of QBs I would say are. 

Herbert as the 2nd worst QB in the AFCW?

 

….eesh

Edited September 23, 2021 by Hunter2_1

[Nightmare]

29 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Herbert as the 2nd worst QB in the AFCW?

 

….eesh

I don’t think it’s a massive stretch to have him behind Carr as of this exact moment in time. Herbert has a far higher ceiling than Carr, and indeed than 90% of QBs in the league, but I’d be cautious about crowning him after one season.

Matt Stafford is also the “2nd worst” QB in the NFC West and he’s very good. Narrowing things down to divisions is far too simplistic a way of looking at it, as the “2nd worst” QB in both the West divisions are comfortably better than some QBs who would be ranked 2nd in their respective divisions.

[Mr Raider]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Herbert as the 2nd worst QB in the AFCW?

 

….eesh

Yeah I mean if that is the lens you choose to look at it from. Is there a very real chance Herbert will be firmly in my top 10 and above Derek Carr at the end of the season? Absolutely. He's extremely talented, he has all the tools, and he was sensational as a rookie. However, I'm not putting any QB inside the top 10-12 QBs after their rookie season. Over guys that have multiple years of playing at a high level. We have seen in the past guys have a great rookie season, only to significantly fall back to earth and not look like that guy everyone thought they would be long term. 

If I were doing a fantasy draft and could take anyone to build around long term, Herbert would be a top 5 pick in all the NFL most likely. It's not that I think he's bad, or don't think he's better at this point in his career than Carr was after 18 career games. I do. But that isn't what my list is about currently. I just need to see more. Some improvement, growth, and I need to see him do it longer for a season. If he does, and I believe there's a very good chance he will, nobody on that list is likely to rise higher. 

[Thomas5737]

4 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

That team was 4-5 under Flacco when Lamar came in mid-season and was 30th in rushing.

The Ravens were better than the Browns, for sure, but let's not act like Lamar didn't inherit a team that had gone 8-8, 9-7, and 4-5 in the prior 3 years with 0 playoff appearances. 

 

Ravens were also top 2 in scoring defense and the worst he has ever had is top 3.

Baker has never had a top 20 defense so that certainly plays a part in wins and losses.

[Thomas5737]

4 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

If you were to give Baker an accurate "Madden Rating" right now, what would you give him? Like, 85/86 range?

His only problem is that there are like 10+ QBs in the league right now I'd give a 90/92ish or above. He's still a good QB who can win you games if he needs to and plays very well within his system.

I think if you give him an 85 or 86 you have to adjust specific ratings to make it happen. If you just fill in arm strength and accuracy, intangibles and awareness it's going to be near the top of the league. So you have to slight him in some areas to make it work out that he is an 85 or 86 because that is where he is "supposed" to rank.

[Ray Reed]

1 minute ago, Thomas5737 said:

Ravens were also top 2 in scoring defense and the worst he has ever had is top 3.

Baker has never had a top 20 defense so that certainly plays a part in wins and losses.

Yeah i’m pretty sure the fact that Lamar’s Ravens leading the league in T.O.P - in large part due to his role in the running game - has something to do with that. Baker turning it over as frequently as he does probably doesn’t help the scoring defense either.