Will Baker Mayfield cement himself as a top-10 QB this year?

[MWil23]

Just now, Forge said:

So we are just ignoring nearly half the season?

The first half of the season is valid, as are other factors, such as:

1. In a vacuum, using that to sort out the first 34-38 games of a QB career, depending upon which expert you ask. Many will say that you started to see Josh Allen really make that jump somewhere around that 34 or so number.

2. A new system, new HC, in a COVID off-season COULD explain the drastic improvement after those first 6 games.

3. The issue is, do you believe that the last 14 games and marked improvement are the guy you're getting almost exclusively going forward? I say yes. I understand those who say no.

[Forge]

Unless I misinterpreted the post. I read "last two" as the last two seasons, meanwhile the sample that we are using doesn't actually comprise an entire season (2 games this year & game 7+ last year). 

I mean, I don't think that anyone would argue that Baker is capable of those kind of stretches...all of those guys are. But he's also capable of putting up those stretches like weeks 1-6 last year. 

[MWil23]

13 minutes ago, Ray Reed said:

Ok then to answer @Thomas5737 question it’s probably not the fumbles but more likely the 45 vs 20 INT line when comparing Mayfield/Jackson.

I'd also say that you'd be better off arguing Interception rate/% then bulk stats.

Jackson: 2%

Mayfield: 4.9%

That said, year by year matters IMO:

2018:

Mayfield: 2.9%

Jackson: 1.8%

2019:

Mayfield: 3.9%

Jackson: 1.5%

2020:

Mayfield: 1.6% @Forge just because I'm petty

Jackson: 2.4%

2021:

Mayfield: TBD

Jackson: TBD

[Ray Reed]

6 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I'd also say that you'd be better off arguing Interception rate/% then bulk stats.

Jackson: 2%

Mayfield: 4.9%

That said, year by year matters IMO:

2018:

Mayfield: 2.9%

Jackson: 1.8%

2019:

Mayfield: 3.9%

Jackson: 1.5%

2020:

Mayfield: 1.6% @Forge just because I'm petty

Jackson: 2.4%

2021:

Mayfield: TBD

Jackson: TBD

You’re right, I like using this stat that shows Mayfield doubling Jackson in INT% a lot better 😁

I expect Jackson’s # of INTs to probably rise a bit this year though with them having their “best” WR group so far in his career...he’ll be pushing it downfield more often I would think.

[Forge]

Just now, MWil23 said:

The first half of the season is valid, as are other factors, such as:

1. In a vacuum, using that to sort out the first 34-38 games of a QB career, depending upon which expert you ask. Many will say that you started to see Josh Allen really make that jump somewhere around that 34 or so number.

2. A new system, new HC, in a COVID off-season COULD explain the drastic improvement after those first 6 games.

3. The issue is, do you believe that the last 14 games and marked improvement are the guy you're getting almost exclusively going forward? I say yes. I understand those who say no.

I'd say that right now he's largely just a dude that's capable of very bad play and very good play for stretches of time just like guys like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins and even Jimmy G. He's probably not as bad as he was two years ago, but I also doubt the INT rate he had in the back half of last year was sustainable. I get being hopeful, but some of the arguments and claims being made are odd. Like, he hasn't been a super efficient top 8 QB for 2 years. He's been a super efficient QB for like 13 games or whatever. A couple of pages ago someone insinuated he was more accurate than Kirk, even though I know of absolutely no data that supports that (he may be a slightly superior downfield thrower, but it's not by much and that's a pretty niche and limited sample, but nothing else would support the idea that Baker is more accurate than Kirk). 

I bring up the efficiency of Derek Carr the last two years and how he actually *did* fall into the top 10 in some of those categories, only to be told "all I hear is 4-12, 7-9 and 8-8", only to read another browns fan complain 7 pages later about people talking about Baker's win / loss record. 

 

 

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, Ray Reed said:

You’re right, I like using this stat that shows Mayfield doubling Jackson in INT% a lot better 😁

(Until 2020, when it was actually less, which is the entire point of the Baker apologists)  

1 minute ago, Ray Reed said:

I expect Jackson’s # of INTs to probably rise a bit this year though with them having their “best” WR group so far in his career...he’ll be pushing it downfield more often I would think.

There's an interesting thought...I wonder if that would explain some of 2018 and 2019 in light of Hue and Freddie Kitchens overall philosophy of bulk passing.  

[Ray Reed]

Just now, MWil23 said:

(Until 2020, when it was actually less, which is the entire point of the Baker apologists)  

There's an interesting thought...I wonder if that would explain some of 2018 and 2019 in light of Hue and Freddie Kitchens overall philosophy of bulk passing.  

Nope Baker is a 12-15 guy and I’ll hear nothing more on the subject 🧐

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'd say that right now he's largely just a dude that's capable of very bad play and very good play for stretches of time just like guys like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins and even Jimmy G. He's probably not as bad as he was two years ago, but I also doubt the INT rate he had in the back half of last year was sustainable.

Maybe, we'll see. It's been about 14 straight games of rock solid QB play with some bigtime performances in there.

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I get being hopeful, but some of the arguments and claims being made are odd. Like, he hasn't been a super efficient top 8 QB for 2 years. He's been a super efficient QB for like 13 games or whatever.

14, so I'd like to point out that you were wrong and I was right, or something not petty that makes me sound smarter than I am.  

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

A couple of pages ago someone insinuated he was more accurate than Kirk, even though I know of absolutely no data that supports that (he may be a slightly superior downfield thrower, but it's not by much and that's a pretty niche and limited sample, but nothing else would support the idea that Baker is more accurate than Kirk). 

Yeah I didn't say that, so I don't know. I do know that he's 81% thus far this season, and his downfield passing accuracy is towards the top of the NFL, so I can't really speak for anything else.

3 minutes ago, Forge said:

I bring up the efficiency of Derek Carr the last two years and how he actually *did* fall into the top 10 in some of those categories, only to be told "all I hear is 4-12, 7-9 and 8-8", only to read another browns fan complain 7 pages later about people talking about Baker's win / loss record. 

Again, I can't speak for what others have said/say about Carr, Cousins, or anyone else. I do know that the last 14 games, Baker has played great. So, I understand some thinking what you do/did say the first paragraph, and I understand why if that 14 game stretch all happened within the same calendar season, people would say definitively that he was "fixed in the off-season".

My argument is:

Why can't he have figured it out and have been fixed after the first 1/3 of the season last year? 

[MWil23]

Live look at me and @Forge arguing about this

[Hunter2_1]

5 hours ago, Nightmare said:

I don’t think it’s a massive stretch to have him behind Carr as of this exact moment in time. Herbert has a far higher ceiling than Carr, and indeed than 90% of QBs in the league, but I’d be cautious about crowning him after one season

But we can with Carr after two games? Got it

[Mr Raider]

51 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

But we can with Carr after two games? Got it

What? No...

It's based on Carr's level of play in 2014 (he wasnt great, but by rookie QB standards and take a look at that roster it showed he had talent) 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2020, plus the 2 games this year. You know, a season where he may very well have won MVP, and 2 other pro bowl seasons.

How in 2019 he was 2nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 8th in yards, 8th in INT percentage, 9th in QB rating. 8th in game winning drives. 

In 2020 he was 9th in completion percentage, 11th in passing yards, 12th in passing TDs, 11th in INT percentage, 9th in QB rating (with virtually the same QB rating as Brady), and 2nd in the NFL in game winning drives. 

Not to mention Carr has the most 4th quarter comeback wins in NFL history through a players first 7 years. And in terms of active players Carr is 8th in the NFL in 4th quarter comeback wins behind Brady, Ben, Stafford, Ryan, Wilson, Dalton, and Tannehill. And doing that on a team that has considerably less around him almost his entire career and won a lot less overall than all those guys except Stafford, and maybe Tannehill. 

I have no idea why you would think that ranking for Carr would be exclusively for these two games when this is his 7th NFL season and he's finished top 5 in the MVP vote one year, and been to the pro bowl 3 times. Simply put, Carr isn't an elite QB. I don't even have him in the great category. But he's shown for a considerable amount of time a level of play that proves he's a franchise QB. And he's done that with not a ton around him to work with most years. 

Edited September 23, 2021 by Mr Raider

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

You’re right, I like using this stat that shows Mayfield doubling Jackson in INT% a lot better 😁

I expect Jackson’s # of INTs to probably rise a bit this year though with them having their “best” WR group so far in his career...he’ll be pushing it downfield more often I would think.

People can cherry pick passing stats when comparing Baker/Lamar but Lamar's game is much more then just passing. Since Lamar took over as the starter the Ravens are 31-8 with their offense averaging 30.4 ppg, since Baker took over as starter the Browns are 24-23 with their offense averaging 23.4 ppg.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

But we can with Carr after two games? Got it

Crowning Carr after two games? Carr was top 10 in basically very passing category last season despite missing 1 game. 

[Ray Reed]

11 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

People can cherry pick passing stats when comparing Baker/Lamar but Lamar's game is much more then just passing. Since Lamar took over as the starter the Ravens are 31-8 with their offense averaging 30.4 ppg, since Baker took over as starter the Browns are 24-23 with their offense averaging 23.4 ppg.

Yup, agree 100%. People nitpick Lamar but he’s led the highest scoring offense (per drive, I think they may be 2nd in PPG behind KC by a hair) since he’s started in this league. The point of football is to gain yards and score points. Few guys out there do that at a higher level than Lamar Jackson. 

Edited September 23, 2021 by Ray Reed

[Nightmare]

1 hour ago, Hunter2_1 said:

But we can with Carr after two games? Got it

Way to spectacularly miss the point.