GDT - Week 6 - It's BBQ Time...

[1ForTheThumb]

One other side note: Hightower is washed and his play has declined considerably. I am fine with letting him walk after this year.

[IheartMyV8]

Just now, 1ForTheThumb said:

One other side note: Hightower is washed and his play has declined considerably. I am fine with letting him walk after this year.

god did he look completely gassed for a good part of the game.  

[Hunter2_1]

Great game, well done to Dallas

 

As for the conservatism or going for it, I think play-to-play a conservative approach is working in that Mac is highly efficient, and we are playing high %, if a bit boring, offense. You play to your strengths. If that's short routes and running 4 yards per carry, so be it

Where the issue comes, for me, is situationally. There have been three 4th downs where I think we should have gone for it on the season. One today and the TB ones I am very confident in my conviction for that. Both times Mac was throwing ABOVE 80% completion rate for the drive and the drive previous. Plus we have some good run blocking OLs in the middle. 

Look around the league, teams are going for it on 4th down so much now. LAC, Cleveland, Tampa, Baltimore....etc, 4th and 1 = they're just going for it. Even if they have a lead, even if they are against booty offenses. 

 

So...conservative plays, fine. That's us. Getting timid with the game on the line against the best offenses who march us down the field, when we have a VERY effeicent QB who is probably going to be able to complete a short pass, especially on play action.......come on. It's not a guarantee that we get the first down, but I guarantee we've lost both games where we had an opportunity to go for it to seal an unlikely win.

 

Encouraging day though. We have pushed 2 of the best teams in the NFL all the way. We should come into some wins now 

Edited October 18, 2021 by Hunter2_1

[Crimmage]

Time of possession destroyed them, even Judon was looking gassed at the end of the game. It was inevitable that they weren't going to be able to defend anymore into the 4th quarter / OT. 

 

The bigger issue imo was how the offense was doing well first few series then got hyper conservative for 5 after that.. which they did nothing on offense for. So during that period of time it was all Cowboys time of possession. You can't win running almost half the plays of the other team. 

 

A positive is this team has been getting much better regarding penalties.. but special teams has been rough all year. 2 Blocked punts is unacceptable. Dallas did all they could to lose that game via penalties

 

At the end of the day, the offense is the issue here.. and it's three main problems: 

-> Wynn has regressed significantly.. they NEED a franchise LT to protect Mac.

-> RT .. Onwenu is a beast.. aren't RT most expensive than LG? Why aren't they just keeping him at RT long term? Karras plays well enough at LG that you could fix the entire OL this offseason drafting a LT and resigning Karras 

-> Jonnu .. you could have an explosive playmaker on offense.. but he had that awful game and has been in the doghouse. I really thought they were going to give him some plays when they threw him that quick pass for 9 to start the game... but he fell off the map again. I won't complain too much for this game because they had their lowest play total of the season, but he needs to be just as involved as Henry. 

 

The defense hasn't been the problem.. other than the Saints game the defense has done everything you can ask for to have a chance to win. The issues with the defense will come in the future ... given so many free agents / aging players. 

-> I am super excited about Barmore though.. he is playing very well 

[IheartMyV8]

49 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

At the end of the day, the offense is the issue here.. and it's three main problems: 

-> Wynn has regressed significantly.. they NEED a franchise LT to protect Mac.

-> RT .. Onwenu is a beast.. aren't RT most expensive than LG? Why aren't they just keeping him at RT long term? Karras plays well enough at LG that you could fix the entire OL this offseason drafting a LT and resigning Karras 

-> Jonnu .. you could have an explosive playmaker on offense.. but he had that awful game and has been in the doghouse. I really thought they were going to give him some plays when they threw him that quick pass for 9 to start the game... but he fell off the map again. I won't complain too much for this game because they had their lowest play total of the season, but he needs to be just as involved as Henry. 

 

To be fair, I expect a lot of growing & acclimation pains on O with 2-3 new WR's, 2 new TE's, and a rookie QB, in a system that has been notoriously complex to adapt to.  The does need help though.

[Crimmage]

1 minute ago, IheartMyV8 said:

To be fair, I expect a lot of growing & acclimation pains on O with 2-3 new WR's, 2 new TE's, and a rookie QB, in a system that has been notoriously complex to adapt to.  The does need help though.

The interesting part is I've been very impressed with all of the new pieces. Mac / Henry / Bourne have been great additions to the team. Agholor had a notorious drop in OT yesterday but for the most part he has been ok.. they just can't get him the ball deep because the OL is horrible. 

I don't believe Jonnu's issues are getting acclimated with the offense, he doesn't look confused out there... the coaching staff just seemed to throw him into blocking duty because they probably felt he cost them the Saints game. At the end of the day though he is dynamic and they need to give him more easy catches to get going like the 1 they did for 9 yards yesterday. With all the injuries in the backfield they should be giving him some work there too. 

 

The OL is where this offense will live and die .. Wynn needs to figure it out and at least become average for them to succeed.. that or IF Trent Brown comes back just put him at LT. Either way the Tackle spot needs to be resolved or the team isn't going to be able to have any success on offense. 

[IheartMyV8]

They've done better than I expected too.  The saints game is the only outlier where we legit lost by multiple scores, which I'm shocked by.  Clean up a turnover here and there and *boom*

[m haynes]

12 hours ago, jofos said:

It's frustrating to lose a game but here is some perspective when comparing the Patriots to the Cowboys: Since 2001 the Patriots have drafted 6 players in the top 20 of the draft ( Seymore {6} 2001, Ty Warren {13} 2005, Mayo {10} 2008, Nate Solder {17} 2011, Mac Jones {15} 2021) The Cowboys have 6 players they drafted in the top 20 on their current roster (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, Ezekiel Elliot, Leighton Vander Esch, CeeDee Lamb, Micah Parsons) They also have Amari Cooper a 4th over all pick. So when people complain about lack of weapons that is the price for 20 years of success.  The Cowboys price for their success in the 90s was 9 winning seasons in the 25 years since winning their last Super Bowl. The Cowboys have made 10 playoff appearances in that time frame the Patriots have been to 10 Super Bowls. 

Rebuilding takes time and I don't think the Patriots are 25 years away.

I know believe Brady made up for a lot of the mistakes along the way. BB could put out crap at the WR position and TBs talent make them look and play better than there skill level. One example,  Caldwell

Also I understand where the Pats drafted compare to other teams and all teams make mistakes in the draft however there are too many head scratches and flat out misses that go beyond draft miss.  Here a list that goes beyond just missing with high draft picks.

Kyle Dugger  ----- Total risk IMO not worth taking when you look who was still on the board. He's average.
Anfernee Jennings ----- I saw a lazy player just watching Y Tube videos!!! What were they looking at?
Dalton Keene ------   I can write for days on this one.
Justin Rohrwasser  ---- Tyer Bass best kicker in the country went in the 6th RD. Rated #1 in the draft.
N'Keal Harry  ------  No brains and ran a 4HR 40 but he can block!!!
JOEJUAN WILLIAMS !!!!  ----- How can a coach such as BB look at this player and work him out and say we need to trade up to get him.  All of us needed what one game to see that he stunk from the get go. He has size , so does Manute Bol !!!!
Duke Dawson  ----  Again defense is BB calling card.
Derek Rivers  ---  Injuries hurt, who knows however he from Youngstown State. Small school risk.
Jordan Richards  ---   Blood boils on this one, TV out the window. 4.8 forty !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Gino Grissiom  -----  Total reach for a 3rd.
Dominigue Easley --- A SB team taking a total risk with a 1st RD pick with two ACLs.  Just foolish. No big deal we have Brady ,which was said by some.  
Trvon Wilson  ----  Mass Bay Community college. Mel Kiper the only one whoever heard of him!!! Rated last RD at best!  That was funny watching the draft desk scramble through their lists of players trying to find info on the kid.
Jermaine Cunningham  ---- Who?????  teammate Carlos Dunlop the star of the team when next pick, how'd that work out. They said he was a headcase, so what you gamble on Easley.

Like I said everyone misses however these (mostly high) picks where complete head scratches.

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by m haynes

[Apparition]

Okay, now find me a team that hasn't made a lot of questionable picks in the middle rounds over the last [squints] 11 years. 🤔

[Apparition]

In more positive news, the Pats are now ranked 6th in the league in yards per attempt allowed rushing, so that area has definitely seen considerable improvement. 

[Crimmage]

35 minutes ago, Apparition said:

Okay, now find me a team that hasn't made a lot of questionable picks in the middle rounds over the last [squints] 11 years. 🤔

The team certainly had a stretch of ~5 years that was pretty ugly draft wise.. but I would say these last two drafts have been very solid to say the least. 

 

2018 is a bust because of Wynn/Michel.. you'd hope that one of those to 1st rounders could have been a long term starter.. but nope. Bentley is all you've got out of that draft, he's gotten much better over the years.. really curious to see if they resign him after this year

2019 is awful because of Harry/Williams.. if one of those two could have been different I'd be fine with that draft. Getting one of those top WR would have been amazing. 

i'm still very high on a lot of picks from these past two drafts

2020: Dugger, Uche, Onwenu have chance to be long term players here .. Herron could be a great long term backup.. and I'm still a big fan of Asiasi's potential

2021: This draft will live and die by Mac but overall I am very happy with the Jones, Barmore, Stevenson picks.. and am intrigued by Perkins / McGrone / Nixon 

 

I'm not sure what the average hit rate is for drafts but if you can get 2-3 long term starters out of each draft that seems like a win to me .. at the end of the day, most draft picks don't work out .. is what it is 

[Apparition]

The most successful team in the NFL over the last 5 years has been the Chiefs. Obviously their marquee draft pick in that time has been Mahomes, but let's take a look at some of the mid-round picks they've made after him, starting in 2017

 

17/2/59 DL Tano Kpassagnon: Decent rotational player. Didn't resign him and now he's with New Orleans
Career AV: 16

17/3/86 RB Kareem Hunt: Very good player whom they had to cut because he beat up a woman. Now with the Browns
Career AV: 34

17/4/139 WR Jehu Chesson: Who? Yeah, exactly.
Career AV: 0

18/2/46 DL Breeland Speaks: Absolute disaster. Cut after 1 season and has been bouncing around other teams' practice squads ever since. 
Career AV: 3

18/3/75 DT Derek Nnadi: He's been their starting NT since midway through his rookie season, but has never been much better than average. Ineffective this year and a big reason why their run defense is 30th in the league.
Career AV: 12

18/3/100 LB Dorian O'Daniel: Almost exclusively a special teamer. A good one, but when you're picking in the top-100 you're generally not looking for special teamers.
Career AV: 4

18/4/124 S Armani Watts: Great name, but again, almost exclusively a special teamer.
Career AV: 2

19/2/56 WR Mecole Hardman: A decent #3 receiver who hasn't really lived up to his draft position. Seems to be improving this year.
Career AV: 13

19/2/63 S Juan Thornhill: Backup/rotational safety. Looks like he's gonna be playing more moving forward, because of how badly Sorensen has sucked.
Career AV: 9

19/3/84 DT Khalen Saunders: Another fat guy who plays ~30% of snaps. Again, the Chiefs' run defense sucks and he's part of the problem. 
Career AV: 3

20/2/63 LB Willie Gay Jr.: Decent rotational player so far. Not yet starting for them, but that could change soon, since Hitchens and Niemann have both been butt this year.
Career AV: 6

20/3/96 OT Lucas Niang: Missed all of his rookie year with injury. Started the first 5 games this season.
Career AV: 0

20/4/138: DB L'Jarius Sneed: Probably the best of these picks. Missed some time with injury last year, but has been all around very good for them. 
Career AV: 3

 

I don't see a whole lot of daylight between this group and the haul the Pats have made over the same period, if we're being honest. 

[m haynes]

2 hours ago, Apparition said:

Okay, now find me a team that hasn't made a lot of questionable picks in the middle rounds over the last [squints] 11 years. 🤔

Maybe I didn't explain it correctly. I don't have a problem with our drafting in general. It the head scratches that bother me.

Wynn/Michel ( I liked both players, Sony slight reach IMO )  they are bust however those choices don't bother me. They were projected in that area of the draft and I can live with the misses, all teams miss. 

However, take Keene they scouted him they didn't notice he can't catch the ball. The 1st pass to him he tried to catch it with his elbows!! He was the 4th option on his college team.  Going on memory , I think he had 15 career catches in college.

Williams how on earth can you scout a guy and not notice he can't move side to side or turn his hips.

 

[jofos]

1 hour ago, m haynes said:

Maybe I didn't explain it correctly. I don't have a problem with our drafting in general. It the head scratches that bother me.

Wynn/Michel ( I liked both players, Sony slight reach IMO )  they are bust however those choices don't bother me. They were projected in that area of the draft and I can live with the misses, all teams miss. 

However, take Keene they scouted him they didn't notice he can't catch the ball. The 1st pass to him he tried to catch it with his elbows!! He was the 4th option on his college team.  Going on memory , I think he had 15 career catches in college.

Williams how on earth can you scout a guy and not notice he can't move side to side or turn his hips.

 

So the starting left tackle and the guy that should have been the playoff MVP in a Super Bowl run, he ran for 94 yards and the games only TD, or bust?

[Apparition]

33 minutes ago, jofos said:

So the starting left tackle and the guy that should have been the playoff MVP in a Super Bowl run, he ran for 94 yards and the games only TD, or bust?

How much of that success was Michel and how much was the OL dominating?