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17-18 Hot Stove Thread


Eagles27

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

The Giants won't full rebuild.  Can't afford it.They'll add pieces to contend, I'm just not sure how that works with Stanton. I suspect they'll make a push for JD Martinez in free agency though. 

A lot of the core is still at an acceptable age. Belt / Crawford / Panik / Posey are all between 27-30 years old. Pence and Span are older, but they are on the last year of their deals, respectively. The pitching staff is 32 (Shark), 31 (Cueto), 28 (Madbum), 28 (Moore), and Stratton and Blach for the #5 spot are both 27. 

Looks more like the New York Giants trying desperately to rebuild around a 37 year old Eli.  Panik, Crawford, and that whole pitching staff sans MadBum is very questionable and they just won 64 games.

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Just now, redsoxsuck05 said:

Looks more like the New York Giants trying desperately to rebuild around a 37 year old Eli.  Panik, Crawford, and that whole pitching staff sans MadBum is very questionable and they just won 64 games.

This is actually a very good analogy. 

They're going to go into a rebuild kicking and screaming and not until the last possible moment. They're going to drive it to the ground and endure 2-3 years of bottom feeder play before they finally admit, hey, this isn't working, we should rebuild.....

The immediate future is not going to be a fun time for Giants fans. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

But they won't. They can't afford to and they're going to want to ride those guys until the wheels fall off of them (though that really happened last year). That's a lot of salary in there, and there's no value coming back in prospects for those guys coming off mostly down years. Shark has nearly a full NTC. Cueto's salary is a grenade nobody wants. They're not going to trade Buster / Madbum and apparently, Crawford is untouchable for some reason. Panik is the most likely to be moved, but he's really not a problem given the team control left  and age. Belt could potentially be moved, I suppose? I mean, take him out of SF, and his power numbers probably look a lot better, but that contract is a bit of an albatross. Maybe you get someone to bite on Pence or Span for a player to be named type deal where the Giants take on salary. 

They're going to hope that the massive collection of down years last year was just a fluke and see if these guys can rebound next year. 

So they can afford to but Sabean/Ownership are stubborn I guess lol

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Just now, Forge said:

This is actually a very good analogy. 

They're going to go into a rebuild kicking and screaming and not until the last possible moment. They're going to drive it to the ground and endure 2-3 years of bottom feeder play before they finally admit, hey, this isn't working, we should rebuild.....

The immediate future is not going to be a fun time for Giants fans. 

for the record I meant retool and not rebuilt but I think you get what I mean

glad we're on the same page

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2 hours ago, Forge said:

This is actually a very good analogy. 

They're going to go into a rebuild kicking and screaming and not until the last possible moment. They're going to drive it to the ground and endure 2-3 years of bottom feeder play before they finally admit, hey, this isn't working, we should rebuild.....

The immediate future is not going to be a fun time for Giants fans. 

 

If Sabean still has the touch we'll be ok and with Bum ok could be another ring. But it looks like Sabean has kind of mailed it in and you're right we will struggle for a very long time. 3 rings was obviously well worth it but there is always that what could of been if Cain and Timmy had been able to stay healthy, they're 33 years old and should just now be at the end of their primes.

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9 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I've said this before a bunch, but Stanton is effectively untradeable.

  • He's going to need some type of persuasion to waive his no trade clause.
  • His opt-out structure with so much back-end money means you either only get him for 3 years after paying prospects like you'd get him for a career or you're stuck with a landmine contract for a decade and can't really predict which one it is.
  • The OF market is saturated.
  • The Marlins are going to want to get premium prospects back.

I can go buy JD Martinez for a third of the price with less risk and still get a lot of that production to address a need. So why am I emptying out my farm system to take on a huge risk of a contract for a guy who's a couple wins better? If it's for a luxury piece and I'm desperate to shell out $250M+, why am I not just waiting a year for Bryce Harper? And Stanton is injury prone on top of it?

Not happening.

I disagree with your premise. If the Miami Herald is correct in their report that the Marlins prefer to slash payroll by moving Stanton, their desire to move his contract will be the catalyst in getting a deal done. Along with Stanton being sick of losing.

  • For some destinations, I don't think he'll need much persuasion at all. He grew up a Dodgers fan and he's a California kid. No problem there. He stated on Kimmel he'd be willing to DH for the Red Sox. Those are two prime spots; the former has a serious need for power. I'm sure he'd be willing to go to the Yankees and hit 75 homers a year, but the Cardinals and Giants might not be at the top of his list.
  • This is a legitimate point. However, if I were a GM, I'd be operating under the premise that when that opt-out rolls around, a soon to be 31 year old Stanton will decide that on the open market he wouldn't be able to do better than the 7 years, $208M he'd be opting out from. Maybe he thinks the opposite. I have no clue. If I had to guess, I'd say the guaranteed 7/208 will be more attractive than opting out.
  • This is also a legitimate point. I'd argue that if MLB brings these golf balls they're using in the World Series to the regular season, teams will want the best home run hitter in the game. Low power teams will realize they can't hit on the sidelines of the power market (looking at you here, Dave).
  • Also true, but the market will decide what level of return the Marlins will be able to get for Stanton.

I think Stanton is traded this offseason and the Dodgers should be considered the favorites to get a deal done.

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22 minutes ago, playmaker8267 said:

I disagree with your premise. If the Miami Herald is correct in their report that the Marlins prefer to slash payroll by moving Stanton, their desire to move his contract will be the catalyst in getting a deal done. Along with Stanton being sick of losing.

  • For some destinations, I don't think he'll need much persuasion at all. He grew up a Dodgers fan and he's a California kid. No problem there. He stated on Kimmel he'd be willing to DH for the Red Sox. Those are two prime spots; the former has a serious need for power. I'm sure he'd be willing to go to the Yankees and hit 75 homers a year, but the Cardinals and Giants might not be at the top of his list.
  • This is a legitimate point. However, if I were a GM, I'd be operating under the premise that when that opt-out rolls around, a soon to be 31 year old Stanton will decide that on the open market he wouldn't be able to do better than the 7 years, $208M he'd be opting out from. Maybe he thinks the opposite. I have no clue. If I had to guess, I'd say the guaranteed 7/208 will be more attractive than opting out.
  • This is also a legitimate point. I'd argue that if MLB brings these golf balls they're using in the World Series to the regular season, teams will want the best home run hitter in the game. Low power teams will realize they can't hit on the sidelines of the power market (looking at you here, Dave).
  • Also true, but the market will decide what level of return the Marlins will be able to get for Stanton.

I think Stanton is traded this offseason and the Dodgers should be considered the favorites to get a deal done.

If he goes to California, over the life of the deal he'd be costing himself upwards of $20M in state income tax. Maybe it's worthwhile, but I'd be willing to bet he would want some type of condition.

The opt out is the biggest thing. You can't just say "I think he'll opt in, who knows?". You know you're getting the worst possible outcome. The only way he stays off the market is if you're overpaying. There's no good scenario.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't seen a proposal yet that's remotely feasible. With how the Dodgers are run, I'd be shocked if they went and got him. They just got 4 wins from Chris Taylor for free. They're going to burn their farm system and stop making progress on the luxury tax for 2 extra wins? For what?

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19 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If he goes to California, over the life of the deal he'd be costing himself upwards of $20M in state income tax. Maybe it's worthwhile, but I'd be willing to bet he would want some type of condition.

The opt out is the biggest thing. You can't just say "I think he'll opt in, who knows?". You know you're getting the worst possible outcome. The only way he stays off the market is if you're overpaying. There's no good scenario.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I haven't seen a proposal yet that's remotely feasible. With how the Dodgers are run, I'd be shocked if they went and got him. They just got 4 wins from Chris Taylor for free. They're going to burn their farm system and stop making progress on the luxury tax for 2 extra wins? For what?

If he hires a half decent accountant he could effectively cancel out a lot of the tax burden

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10 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Not happening.

I tend to agree with this train of thought.  It's just going to be hard to convince a team to not only eat majority (if not all) of the salary AND give up the package that the Marlins are going to want.  That's a HUGE salary to take on for any team.

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