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Week 17 SNF Vikings @ Packers: Postgame - Packers WIN 37-10, CLINCH #1 seed!


FAH1223

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10 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

its what we got. The Packers 2021 Defense is good enough to win a Title if the offense plays to their ability and the defense creates some turnovers
In a perfect world, you'd love to have it all. But we don't. So the next question is: Is this 2021 team capable of creating turnovers ?
The answer so far has been yes. Currently GB is tied for 6th in the league in defensive turnovers/ game. Hoping they continue to create TO's in the playoffs isn't an unreasonable stance

link:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/takeaways-per-game

every playoff defense is capable to providing enough if they get the turnovers

playoff teams are typically those that are on the + side of the turnover differential, so "banking" on winning the turnover battle in consecutive games is not a solid argument.  

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9 minutes ago, squire12 said:

not a solid argument.

I'm not here for an argument 
There's only 1 team in the NFC playoffs ranked above GB in takeaways-
And as far as turnover margin/gm, GB is number 1 in the entire NFL - so there's a fair chance GB wins the TO battles vs these "lesser ranked" teams and winning that battle bodes well for winning playoff games.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/turnover-margin-per-game

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14 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Who is going to hold the ball poorly for Crosby?

If needed, the obvious move would be to sign JK to the PS and elevate him. Crosby didn't miss a kick last season with him as the holder so that's something...

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2 hours ago, skibrett15 said:

I won't argue that it's exactly the same, but 32 teams played 15 games.  It's as good of a sample as you'll get this year.  Nobody is saying the Jags are terrible but Covid variance makes that data useless.  The Jags are obviously terrible. 

Are you willing to draw a line that the 15 games worth of results mean nothing looking forward to the playoffs?

I haven't seen any reasoned arguments that discount or excuse the poor performance by the defense outside of NO is skewing the result (a little, but the finding is the same even with the game removed).

Good defenses don't allow 30 to Baltimore and Minnesota.  Good defenses don't allow over 2 points/drive.  Ergo, the Packers don't have a good Defense? 

Do folks think it's good enough to win an NFC championship?  I'm leaning no but they still have a chance to improve over the next 4 weeks

I’m not arguing that the defense is infallible or even championship caliber.  I’ve never argued that.

My argument has been strictly that THIS year, I’m not sure that statistics that historically have been strong indicators of playoff success are AS predictive as they have been in the past.  

And yes, I believe that THIS season is harder to predict than any season in recent memory.  

Lastly, the raiders put up 36 and the broncos put up 30 on the Dallas Cowboys defense, the team that is just so happening to be leading the NFL in net point differential.  Both games were losses at home.

The moral of the story… week to week the NFL is random.  Trends matter!  The packers defense is trending down for sure.  BUT… that can change, and change pretty quickly.  

Edited by Cpdaly23
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2 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Wouldn't look too far into it, we've seemed to give guys on the Covid list the following week "off" of practice. Just did it with Clark. I'd imagine MVS is focusing on progressive cardio training with the rehab team versus going outside and practicing in the cold. 

FWIW, today's transaction sheet lists MVS as being activated from the Covid List, but it hasn't been reported yet by GB...

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Andy Herman -    Well talk about timing. The Packers' training camp punter Ryan Winslow was just released from the Cardinals' p/s today. That would allow GB to sign Winslow to their own p/s (rather than needing to sign him to the active and keep him for 3 weeks). Can then be activated if needed.

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2 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

I'm not here for an argument 
There's only 1 team in the NFC playoffs ranked above GB in takeaways-
And as far as turnover margin/gm, GB is number 1 in the entire NFL - so there's a fair chance GB wins the TO battles vs these "lesser ranked" teams and winning that battle bodes well for winning playoff games.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/turnover-margin-per-game

That is a reasonable stance.   just not sure the expectation that TO is the way to live in the playoffs.

Being outside of the top 10 in points per play significantly reduces the winning formula in the playoffs for super bowl winners.  

 

  GB         Super bowl    
  TO differential points per play Points per drive     TO differential points per play Points per drive
2021 1 15 21          
2020 7 16 17   TB 6 4 6
2019 t6 12 11   KC 8 6 15
2018 19 21 23   NE 5 5 7
2017 20 27 32   PHI 5 6 3
2016 6 26 29   NE 3 1 2
2015 10 12 11   DEN 19 3 1
2014 1 11 18   NE 2 9 8
2013 17 26 28   SEA 1 1 1
2012 10 9 15   BAL 5 6 11
2011 2 17 23   NYG 5 24 25
2010 3 2 2   GB 3 2 2
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1 hour ago, squire12 said:

That is a reasonable stance.   just not sure the expectation that TO is the way to live in the playoffs.

Being outside of the top 10 in points per play significantly reduces the winning formula in the playoffs for super bowl winners.  

 

 

 

  GB         Super bowl    
  TO differential points per play Points per drive     TO differential points per play Points per drive
2021 1 15 21          
2020 7 16 17   TB 6 4 6
2019 t6 12 11   KC 8 6 15
2018 19 21 23   NE 5 5 7
2017 20 27 32   PHI 5 6 3
2016 6 26 29   NE 3 1 2
2015 10 12 11   DEN 19 3 1
2014 1 11 18   NE 2 9 8
2013 17 26 28   SEA 1 1 1
2012 10 9 15   BAL 5 6 11
2011 2 17 23   NYG 5 24 25
2010 3 2 2   GB 3 2 2

Packers are #5 at home, so let's plan on playing all our games there.

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As far as other defensive markers - GB is currently ranked # 8 in opponent passer rating, sandwiched between 2 potential playoff combatants. That's solid.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating
 

I took a quick peek at TO's vs this years' NFC potential playoff participants:

Packers created 3 TO's  vs Rams in 2021. 
Packers created 3 TO's  vs Cards in 2021
Packers created 2 TO's  vs the 49ers in 2021
Packers created 3 TO's  vs Bucs in 2020.
Packers created 1 TO  vs Philly in 2020
Packers created 3 TO's in most recent vs Dallas  2019

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