TheEagle Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I can only recall one time in the 21st century where the Superbowl Champion wasn't a +100 point differential team. That metric has historically proven better than record. Denver 2015 +59 Baltimore 2012 +54 NY Giants 2011 -6 NY Giants 2007 +22 Indianapolis 2006 +67 New England 2001 +99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Interesting that the team with the highest point differential has won the Super Bowl 5 times in that same span—mostly New England playing in an abysmal AFC East. Our schedule has to be above average in difficulty this year. Philadelphia 2017 New England 2016 New England 2014 New Orleans 2009 New England 2004 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEagle Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 (edited) All five of those teams also had home field throughout the playoffs, so did point differential matter more or did home field advantage Edited December 29, 2021 by TheEagle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sasquatch Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, TheEagle said: Denver 2015 +59 Baltimore 2012 +54 NY Giants 2011 -6 NY Giants 2007 +22 Indianapolis 2006 +67 New England 2001 +99 That 2011 Giants team was truly a team of destiny. How they made the playoffs, made it to the SB, and ultimately beat the Patriots in the SB is still a mystery to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 hours ago, Sasquatch said: That 2011 Giants team was truly a team of destiny. How they made the playoffs, made it to the SB, and ultimately beat the Patriots in the SB is still a mystery to me. Amazing front 4 and Manning had probably the best 4 game stretch of his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I can only recall one time in the 21st century where the Superbowl Champion wasn't a +100 point differential team. That metric has historically proven better than record. So who this year in the NFC has reached that point already? Can't imagine anybody so far and to lazy to check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: I can only recall one time in the 21st century where the Superbowl Champion wasn't a +100 point differential team. That metric has historically proven better than record. Just doesn't do anything for me, Bucs and Cowboys are there. Bucs beat the Bills by 6, Colts by 7, Eagles by 6, Pats by 2, Dallas by 2. That's the wins vs teams with winning records. Dallas's entire differential is pretty much made up of a 42 pt win over the WFT, 40 pt win over Atlanta and 24 PT win over NYG. Sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Packerraymond said: Just doesn't do anything for me, Bucs and Cowboys are there. Bucs beat the Bills by 6, Colts by 7, Eagles by 6, Pats by 2, Dallas by 2. That's the wins vs teams with winning records. Dallas's entire differential is pretty much made up of a 42 pt win over the WFT, 40 pt win over Atlanta and 24 PT win over NYG. Sweet. blowing out bad teams is one of the best indicators that your other wins are valid and due to merit not luck. Winning close vs bad teams probably means that you should have dropped 1-2 of those and you didn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cpdaly23 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 (edited) Let’s look at the packers victories vs “bad” teams, shall we? Week 2 Lions won by 18 Week 6 @Bears won by 10 Week 7 Washington won by 14 Week 10 Seahawks won by 17 Week 14 Bears won by 15 These all seem like pretty solid victories to me. It’s the PERCEPTION that Baltimore was going to be easy with Huntley (who turned out to be pretty good!) or that the browns were bad (Christmas was the healthiest they’ve been in months, even with the Covid issues on the OL) that has drawn the PFF nerds out of the woodwork. Also, I would argue that in a Covid year, point differential and really any quantitative predictor based on historical standards is likely significantly less correlated with how good a team actually is vs. a normal season. We played a game without our top three WR, for example. We also played a game with a backup QB. Covid absences increase the week to week volatility of the performance of teams and renders some of these season long statistics less useful for projecting postseason success. If the sample were larger (even 30 gets you into the ballpark of increased significance/predictability etc) maybe, but the most we are going to get is 17… and now this post on a football forum is trending too close to my job and I’m technically on vacation this week and I have to stop 🙂. Edited December 29, 2021 by Cpdaly23 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 48 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: blowing out bad teams is one of the best indicators that your other wins are valid and due to merit not luck. Winning close vs bad teams probably means that you should have dropped 1-2 of those and you didn't. Wins are wins, if you're beating the good teams and the bad teams, I don't agree with your statement. If we won close, yet lost vs Zona, LAR, SF, etc, I'd agree. Plus, what bad team have we played? Detroit, Washington, Chicago and Seattle? We have won all those games comfortably. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said: Let’s look at the packers victories vs “bad” teams, shall we? Week 2 Lions won by 18 Week 6 @Bears won by 10 Week 7 Washington won by 14 Week 10 Seahawks won by 17 Week 14 Bears won by 15 These all seem like pretty solid victories to me. It’s the PERCEPTION that Baltimore was going to be easy with Huntley (who turned out to be pretty good!) or that the browns were bad (Christmas was the healthiest they’ve been in months, even with the Covid issues on the OL) that have drawn the PFF nerds out of the woodwork. Also, I would argue that in a Covid year, point differential and really any quantitative predictor based on historical standards is likely significantly less correlated with how good a team actually is vs. a normal season. We played a game without our top three WR, for example. We also played a game with a backup QB. Covid absences increase the week to week volatility of the performance of teams and renders some of these season long statistics less useful for projecting postseason success. If the sample were larger (even 30 gets you into the ballpark of increased significance/predictability etc) but the most we are going to get 17… and now this post on a football forum is trending too close to my job and I have to stop. Damn. That's a fairly well reasoned post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, skibrett15 said: blowing out bad teams is one of the best indicators that your other wins are valid and due to merit not luck. Winning close vs bad teams probably means that you should have dropped 1-2 of those and you didn't. I disagree with this a lot. Why should I care if we’re up 21 points in the 4th, take the foot off the gas and they score 2 TDs. The offense is running out the clock, the defense is playing preventative , giving yards up to kill time. Quality wins are most important 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 10 hours ago, TheEagle said: Our schedule has to be above average in difficulty this year. It is. We are playing a first place schedule, and drew the AFC Super Bowl representative as our extra 17th game. So far we have faced 5 of the 14 playoff teams, and are 4-1 in those contests, the one loss is without Rodgers. We have also played 6 teams that are still very much alive in the playoff hunt, and are 4-2 against them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Wins are wins, if you're beating the good teams and the bad teams, I don't agree with your statement. If we won close, yet lost vs Zona, LAR, SF, etc, I'd agree. Plus, what bad team have we played? Detroit, Washington, Chicago and Seattle? We have won all those games comfortably. it's all about the predictive quality of blowouts vs other "wins". Wins are not wins when it comes to looking forward. Of course wins are wins when you look back to determine seeding, etc. I don't think the packers have "close wins" but for some reason you want to hold 42 point wins against the Dallas Cowboys? Past shows that 42 point wins are worth a lot when you look towards the future success of those teams. Point differential absolutely does matter, and a lack of point differential in the packers favor could indicate that this team is overrated relative to their W-L record. One thing working FOR the packers is their extremely slow pace of play. Winning by 14 is more of a blowout when there are 3-4 fewer drives per game than other games in the NFL. 34 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said: Also, I would argue that in a Covid year, point differential and really any quantitative predictor based on historical standards is likely significantly less correlated with how good a team actually is vs. a normal season. We played a game without our top three WR, for example. We also played a game with a backup QB. I don't really buy this. Every team has had equal or worse covid issues than GB has. It's affecting the league pretty evenly across the board. Point taken about sample size, and obviously we could buck the trend, but the trend on a per-play basis right now is that the Packers have a bad defense. Given the data we do have, I'd say it's "more likely than not" the packers have a bad defense. So what evidence do we have that this Packers defense is even average? Their per-drive stats are bad, and the main reason the points allowed stats are average is the fact that they have faced far fewer drives from opponents. Compared to Dallas - GB has faced 30! fewer drives as a defense, but are surrendering 0.5 more points/drive. They are hidden and protected by a ball-control oriented efficient offense that doesn't turn the ball over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 hours ago, coachbuns said: So who this year in the NFC has reached that point already? Can't imagine anybody so far and to lazy to check. Dallas is +150, Tampa is +130. Then the Rams at +90, the Cardinals at +88, the Eagles(!) at +80, and the Packers at +59. Looking at upcoming schedules, the Cowboys will likely expand their differential (vs. AZ, @ PHI), the Bucs EASILY pushing forward with games vs. the Jets and the Falcons. The Rams play the Ravens/49ers, so they'll either increase marginally at best or drop, and the Cardinals will almost certainly fall (Cowboys, Seahawks). The Packers have a shot at pushing past the 100 mark if they can close out the Vikings and blow out the Lions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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