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Early Prediction: First Overall Pick?


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35 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

@CWood21  @Uncle Buck @.Buzz

 

As an outsider, I’m just curious where you all stand on DJ Chark in this conversation? Just reading through it sounds like you’re saying you need receivers 1-4. But I figured most fans would comfortably call him #2 if nothing else. I know the health is a concern.

A lot of the Jaguar fans are more excited about Chark than I am.  He's fast, but from what I've seen, he seems kind of limited to more of a deep threat due to his size.  He was injured early in the season and I didn't get to see much of him this year.  One thing that kind of bugged me is that he seemed to have kind of a bad attitude last year when he was playing with hodge-podge of quarterbacks.  That wasn't too impressive, but to be fair, I haven't been around long enough to have a real solid opinion on him either way.  I would say that he is at best, a #2 receiver.

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23 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

What about a guy like Jamison Crowder? He’s been pretty underrated and with a better quarterback might be able to still contribute fairly significantly in the slot.

Then spend 33 on a WR/TE and re-sign Chark and you guys might be well on your way. 
 

Gallup would be pretty nice too. I still feel like Godwin is going to stay in Tampa. Financials might be the only thing that stops them.

I think I'd rather overpay to get Godwin here over Crowder.  We have the cap room, and as .Buzz says, we desperately need a good weapon or three.

When it comes to the rookies, the following ones are interesting:

Jameson Williams - With the injury, could we find a way to get him at #33?  If he can recover from the ACL, it would be awesome to get a player like Jameson at a big discount.

Drake London - I really like his size and athleticism.  He would be a nice addition if we could swing it.

Chris Olave - He looks good.  The question is where would we need to be picking to land him.

Treylon Burks - I was kind of hyped on him for a while, but am starting to wonder if he would be as good as I thought against NFL caliber defenders.

Wan'Dale Robinson - He's an interesting player.  Small and shifty.  Maybe a nice complement to a corps that included Jameson Williams and Drake London (in an ideal world).  He used to play running back and converted to receiver.  The main question with him is if we already have a similar weapon on the roster in Travis Etienne.

Jalen Tolbert - Seems to have very nice speed and good hands.  He could be a decent pickup in the mid rounds.

 

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47 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I think I'd rather overpay to get Godwin here over Crowder.  We have the cap room, and as .Buzz says, we desperately need a good weapon or three.

Jameson Williams - With the injury, could we find a way to get him at #33?  If he can recover from the ACL, it would be awesome to get a player like Jameson at a big discount.

Drake London - I really like his size and athleticism.  He would be a nice addition if we could swing it.

Chris Olave - He looks good.  The question is where would we need to be picking to land him.

Treylon Burks - I was kind of hyped on him for a while, but am starting to wonder if he would be as good as I thought against NFL caliber defenders.

 

One of those four should be available at 33. Which one I’m not sure. I’d be surprised if two make it that far.

 

My personal guess today is Jameson still gets snagged in the 20’s. Jags  could potentially trade up if they’re in love with someone. Could be a small run on WRs between probably 15-30. 
 

My gut for whatever reason says Drake London could be there @33. Maybe Burks instead. Thinking one or the other, but not both. But then again you never know with the NFL draft. Could be a big run on CB and OL between 15-30, potentially leaving an extra WR available @33. 

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1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

Yep.  That's what I was thinking too, CWood21.  I'd like to get some weapons for us right now, but I'm afraid we would be losing a lot in value.  I was thinking we might be in a better position next year if we are maybe picking a little lower. 

I think in an ideal scenario, you'd move down to 4 or 5 and grab whichever one of the top OTs are available (whether it be Neal or the kid from NC State) and get some extra assets from either the Jets or Giants.  The Jets have 5 picks in the top 70 and the Giants have 5 in the top 82, so they could feel comfortable giving up some of those assets.  I'm gonna assume that both teams aren't willing to deal their other FRP or a future FRP, so their package would be built around their SRP (#35 for the Jets and #36 for the GIants).  I just don't believe that a single SRP is going to get it done from Jacksonville's perspective, but I think there would be motivation by the Jets and Giants to move up IF the price was right.  And I think even in a worst case scenario if they moved down to 5, they could still pivot and take either Stingley.

1 hour ago, Uncle Buck said:

@CWood21 @.Buzz what do you guys think of the situation with Jameson Williams?  Any chance he would drop to #33, and if he did, would he be worth taking with that pick.  I was thinking maybe we could look at him as kind of like a David Robinson situation when he was drafted in the NBA but had to spend some time in the navy before he could play.  Even though they missed some time initially, he ended up being a great pick for them.  How far do you think Jameson will fall now?

You're essentially drafting him for 2023.  If you get anything from in 2022, you consider that a HUGE win.  For that reason, I think the number of teams that might be comfortable taking him on Day 1 are slim.  You're going to need a team who is probably going to be picking relatively late in the upcoming years with a strong foundation in place that doesn't feel a ton of pressure to draft a player who is going to contribute immediately.  For example, I don't think Green Bay is a good fit for Williams in R1 given the timeline with Aaron Rodgers, but a team like Kansas City or Buffalo might be willing to make that gamble given that their core is in place and they're not on a hurried up timeline.  I still think early Day 2 makes more sense for a team that is a year or two away from being competitive like Jacksonville or NY Jets.

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44 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

I think I'd rather overpay to get Godwin here over Crowder.  We have the cap room, and as .Buzz says, we desperately need a good weapon or three.

When it comes to the rookies, the following ones are interesting:

Jameson Williams - With the injury, could we find a way to get him at #33?  If he can recover from the ACL, it would be awesome to get a player like Jameson at a big discount.

Drake London - I really like his size and athleticism.  He would be a nice addition if we could swing it.

Chris Olave - He looks good.  The question is where would we need to be picking to land him.

Treylon Burks - I was kind of hyped on him for a while, but am starting to wonder if he would be as good as I thought against NFL caliber defenders.

Wan'Dale Robinson - He's an interesting player.  Small and shifty.  Maybe a nice complement to a corps that included Jameson Williams and Drake London (in an ideal world).  He used to play running back and converted to receiver.  The main question with him is if we already have a similar weapon on the roster in Travis Etienne.

Jalen Tolbert - Seems to have very nice speed and good hands.  He could be a decent pickup in the mid rounds.

 

They could talk to the Giants, Jets and Eagles because all have multiple first round picks and the Eagles had three of them.  They might want to trade up for that #1 overall pick if they love Hutchinson or Thibodeaux, and the Jets/Giants and even Eagles need edge rushers badly especially the Jets.  Not sure that happens though, especially for a non QB but who knows.

 

Jameson will most likely be the #1 WR taken in the draft even with the injury, sure the injury could drop him a bit but honestly he was the most impressive WR in this draft and outside of some injury complications should be an outstanding pro.  It is a deep WR class but all the elite guys should all be gone by round 1, and that could include 8 receivers.

 

They could wait and maybe get a steal later with Doubs, Rambo, Pickens, Keytaon Thompson or Tyquan Thornton.  But all the top guys will be gone by round 1 most likely, especially after round 2.  Really though most likely they should just take Hutchinson and move on, switch back to a 4/3 D, hope he brings the same kind of energy and fire he brought this last year on Michigan.

DE Hutchinson / Smoot
DT Malcolm Brown / Hamilton
DT Robertson-Harris / A. Gotsis
DE Josh Allen / J. Ward / J.Smith

OLB Chassion
ILB D. Wilson
OLB Jack

 

 

 

Why don't they just take her #1 overall, I mean she looks good sneezing!  It is a win win.  

kate-beckinsale-sneeze.gif

 

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46 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

They could talk to the Giants, Jets and Eagles because all have multiple first round picks and the Eagles had three of them.  They might want to trade up for that #1 overall pick if they love Hutchinson or Thibodeaux, and the Jets/Giants and even Eagles need edge rushers badly especially the Jets.  Not sure that happens though, especially for a non QB but who knows.

But like you said, if you're the Giants or Jets are you really going to give up that draft capital for a non-QB?  I really don't think so.  And are 3 mid FRPs worth the #1 overall pick for Jacksonville?  Probably not.  Just from the TVC alone, the Eagles would need to send an additional 4th round pick to make the values meet.  But going back to the original point, would the Jaguars want to pass up on an elite prospect for 3 very good (but not great) prospects?  I just don't think so.

48 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Jameson will most likely be the #1 WR taken in the draft even with the injury, sure the injury could drop him a bit but honestly he was the most impressive WR in this draft and outside of some injury complications should be an outstanding pro.  It is a deep WR class but all the elite guys should all be gone by round 1, and that could include 8 receivers.

I feel fairly confident that Jameson Williams will not be the first WR off the board.

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19 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 

I feel fairly confident that Jameson Williams will not be the first WR off the board.

Only reason Jameson Williams would not be the #1 WR off the board is because of his injury and because he probably cannot run a 40 or workout, who knows if he even plays next year.  If the dude never got hurt based on his game tape and based on the fact he probably runs a 4.3 range 40 and jumps 37"+ as a vertical, the dude is easily the most explosive WR in the draft, best deep threat and arguably best kick returner as well.  Granted I had him going to Carolina at #6 before this injury.

 

Only guy who could compete with him is Garrett Wilson and he is from Ohio State where clearly almost any WR in that system puts up crazy numbers and is wildly productive.  Burks maybe but again only reason Jameson falls is because of the injury and possible issues from it.  Based on game tape this year he is the best WR, dude has crazy explosive ability.  

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6 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I think in an ideal scenario, you'd move down to 4 or 5 and grab whichever one of the top OTs are available (whether it be Neal or the kid from NC State) and get some extra assets from either the Jets or Giants.  The Jets have 5 picks in the top 70 and the Giants have 5 in the top 82, so they could feel comfortable giving up some of those assets.  I'm gonna assume that both teams aren't willing to deal their other FRP or a future FRP, so their package would be built around their SRP (#35 for the Jets and #36 for the GIants).  I just don't believe that a single SRP is going to get it done from Jacksonville's perspective, but I think there would be motivation by the Jets and Giants to move up IF the price was right.  And I think even in a worst case scenario if they moved down to 5, they could still pivot and take either Stingley.

You're essentially drafting him for 2023.  If you get anything from in 2022, you consider that a HUGE win.  For that reason, I think the number of teams that might be comfortable taking him on Day 1 are slim.  You're going to need a team who is probably going to be picking relatively late in the upcoming years with a strong foundation in place that doesn't feel a ton of pressure to draft a player who is going to contribute immediately.  For example, I don't think Green Bay is a good fit for Williams in R1 given the timeline with Aaron Rodgers, but a team like Kansas City or Buffalo might be willing to make that gamble given that their core is in place and they're not on a hurried up timeline.  I still think early Day 2 makes more sense for a team that is a year or two away from being competitive like Jacksonville or NY Jets.

Unless we love a guy at #1 I think this is the type of draft where you could see us/a team take less than you’d normally get. If the draft doesn’t have that QB prospect nor a generational talent at the top you just aren’t getting the normal haul of multiple FRP’s.

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5 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Unless we love a guy at #1 I think this is the type of draft where you could see us/a team take less than you’d normally get. If the draft doesn’t have that QB prospect nor a generational talent at the top you just aren’t getting the normal haul of multiple FRP’s.

You have to go back to 1997 the last time a team traded to #1 that wasn't trading up for QB, and that year the Rams traded their FRP (#6) along with their 3rd, 4th, and 7th round pick to move up to select Orlando Pace.  I'd put those odds at significantly less then 1% of happening again.

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12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You have to go back to 1997 the last time a team traded to #1 that wasn't trading up for QB, and that year the Rams traded their FRP (#6) along with their 3rd, 4th, and 7th round pick to move up to select Orlando Pace.  I'd put those odds at significantly less then 1% of happening again.

Fair point. I’m just saying if we were to be on the phones and take offers I don’t think we’d be “fair value via the chart or get stepping”. I wouldn’t be upset nor shocked if we moved back a few spots and only a 2nd and change were sent back our way *pending our evals on the edges*.

 

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7 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Fair point. I’m just saying if we were to be on the phones and take offers I don’t think we’d be “fair value via the chart or get stepping”. I wouldn’t be upset nor shocked if we moved back a few spots and only a 2nd and change were sent back our way.

Speaking of the '97 draft, I don't suppose anyone remembers what happened with the #6 pick?

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