Soko Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: I will sincerely never understand how Carson Wentz, Sam Darnold, and other objectively less accomplished QBs get chance after chance, but Mayfield is in limbo. I mean, Darnold’s had like one chance lol. Main difference is Darnold blended in with the talentless Jets, and Baker’s stood out (in a not to great way) among the Browns’ talent. Wentz has had two but has more time in the league and puts out a better product than either of them. Also doesn’t help that the demand for a QB like Baker (starter but not great) is pretty low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 (edited) Baker's lack of interest in suitors probably stems from a unique combo of circumstances we're not likely going to see anytime soon: 1. The direction some buyers took that reduced the number of teams looking for vet QB's. In particular, PIT going with Trubisky took one win-now team off the buyer's market, and ATL trading Matt Ryan to IND, and then going with Marcus Mariota, took another vet QB team off the market (IND or ATL, depending on where Ryan ended up). Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and to a lesser extent, Mariota/Trubisky gave alternate choices to teams looking for QB. That's incredibly rare for any offseason - many offseasons, Baker would have been the best or 2nd best choice. Not this offseason. 2. The coincidental availability of JimmyG, but only once he can clear a physical. I would imagine if JimmyG didn't need the operation, he would have been traded 3 months ago. But given that both he and Baker are now available, it offers choices to teams who want vet stopgaps late in the offseason. That's seldom seen - the whole reason why Sam Bradford netted a 1st was he was the only available starter-level guy late in the offseason. That's not the situation here. 3. CLE's dead cap $18.8M+ with a release, being the only way to save this is via trade. If CLE was in SF's situation, where either a release or trade would save almost all the $, we'd see buyers likely willing to pay more - but knowing how stuck CLE is cap-hit wise, they're definitely applying more leverage (and b4 ppl say CLE can afford the dead cap hit, no one is arguing that - but it's still wasted $18.8M+ they could use elsewhere with a trade - so the leverage is in reducing the lost $ only via trade). 4. Finally, there are some teams that clearly appear to be willing to wait until 2023 to go for QBOTF - and so aren't willing to give up any draft capital for a 2022 solution. CAR, HOU (if Davis Mills isn't the answer <likely>, even ATL all gave themselves the flexibility to simply see if a cheap solution sticks, but can go hard for QB next year. Ultimately, the biggest reason why teams haven't gone after Baker isn't because they think he's not starter-level material. It's that they don't think he's a difference-maker starter level guy who's worth a 2nd contract. @Forge alluded to this - it's not as important if you're the 12th/13th best starter in the league stat-wise if the gap between 12th/13th and 19th/20th is microscopic. And that's where Baker kinda fits - good enough to be a middle-of-road QB best-case, maybe skirting top 12-13...but NEVER that guy who can carry a team in the 4Q vs. good D's on his own consistently, or carry the O with his play vs. good D's consistently. It seems small to say his ceiling could be top 12-13 and yet say "he's not a top 8-10 guy", but IMO that's a massive gulf in how it impacts teams. Right now there are 8-10 QB's where teams can win SB's with their play being a big part - Matthew Stafford in LAR being the most recent example. He put up a top 6 season in LAR in 2021, but more importantly, he fits in that 2nd tier of "I can win games on my own / carry the team myself" talent (Allen/Mahomes/A-Rod/TB12 being Tier 1, Burrow/Herbert getting there, but firmly planted in tier 2 with Russell Wilson, and then Stafford at 8 IMO). There's a bunch of guys who we question whether they belong in that 'can win games on their own vs. good teams' - Kyler, Dak, Lamar (and no rookies belong there). Baker isn't even at that tier....so yes, he can get to the #12/#13 mark - but the gap between the "can win titles with him" and "OK, but you're not winning playoff games because of his play, you're winning despite his limits" is massive. Which is fine when you're cheap - but not when a 2nd contract is looming. That's where Baker finds himself. Even then, if he were the best choice left....there'd be more interest. But given JimmyG is there, and CLE is stuck with 18.8M+ they can't use elsewhere if they don't find a trade partner - well, I'm not that surprised at the staredown, given how the musical chairs changed with Trubisky/Mariota. Edited June 28, 2022 by Broncofan 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 35 minutes ago, Broncofan said: 3. CLE's dead cap $18.8M+ with a release, being the only way to save this is via trade. If CLE was in SF's situation, where either a release or trade would save almost all the $, we'd see buyers likely willing to pay more - but knowing how stuck CLE is cap-hit wise, they're definitely applying more leverage (and b4 ppl say CLE can afford the dead cap hit, no one is arguing that - but it's still wasted $18.8M+ they could use elsewhere with a trade - so the leverage is in reducing the lost $ only via trade). I'm going to disagree on one point, here. I would say the Browns can't afford that dead cap hit. Cleveland has plenty of cap space right now, even with Baker's deal (about $42M last I checked) but they need literally all of that. They're already projected over next year by about $32M, with Amari Cooper being the only guy they could really cut for notable relief. I think they know they need a chunk of that money to roll over to make next year work, if Watson is on the books in any form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkippyX Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 @Broncofan I agree on the idea that the NFL teams want a top 5-10 QB or they want a young guy they hope can be that. Baker is neither. Its why guys like Nick Foles or Case Keenum (who met in an NFCCG) get 3 to 6 games to prove they are red hot before they get benched and discarded. Its not only that the margin between 12 and 20 is often thin, Its also that those guys between 12-20 actually bounce around from like 9 to 30 depending on the year. Baker himself has been a pathetic 19,31,15,27 ranked in passer rating (14,27,12,26 in ANY/A) No one wants to pay that stiff 35 million a year. FYI Wentz has been 25,4,7,13,34,13 ranked in passer rating (27,6,12,16,36,13 in ANY/A) It only takes 1 team to see the 2017,2018,2019,2021 numbers to have faith that they can get high level play out of Wentz. No team can honestly think that about Baker You can have big concerns about Wentz 2020 and also have big concerns about Baker's entire career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Jakuvious said: I'm going to disagree on one point, here. I would say the Browns can't afford that dead cap hit. Cleveland has plenty of cap space right now, even with Baker's deal (about $42M last I checked) but they need literally all of that. They're already projected over next year by about $32M, with Amari Cooper being the only guy they could really cut for notable relief. I think they know they need a chunk of that money to roll over to make next year work, if Watson is on the books in any form. For sure, your take represents the practical side of things - no contender wants to throw away 18.8M when they could allocate it to improve elsewhere. It's just that CLE backers sometimes say "well we're under the cap even with the dead $ already". Both statements are true. But practically speaking, yeah, putting the 18.8M to actual assets that improve your team is always the better idea - which then comes back to why prospective buyers are putting the screws to CLE price-wise for Baker. Their only pathway to getting that 18.8M is through trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, SkippyX said: @Broncofan I agree on the idea that the NFL teams want a top 5-10 QB or they want a young guy they hope can be that. Baker is neither. Its why guys like Nick Foles or Case Keenum (who met in an NFCCG) get 3 to 6 games to prove they are red hot before they get benched and discarded. Its not only that the margin between 12 and 20 is often thin, Its also that those guys between 12-20 actually bounce around from like 9 to 30 depending on the year. Baker himself has been a pathetic 19,31,15,27 ranked in passer rating (14,27,12,26 in ANY/A) No one wants to pay that stiff 35 million a year. FYI Wentz has been 25,4,7,13,34,13 ranked in passer rating (27,6,12,16,36,13 in ANY/A) It only takes 1 team to see the 2017,2018,2019,2021 numbers to have faith that they can get high level play out of Wentz. No team can honestly think that about Baker You can have big concerns about Wentz 2020 and also have big concerns about Baker's entire career. The other part with Baker is that his 2020 was fueled by a 2H in which he faced 7 bottom 10 pass D's - literally the easiest pass D schedule a QB could face that year. With a top 5 OL and a great running game. Still, it's not like he's worse than 30+ QB's in the league. But now that he's in 2nd contract territory...yeah, I get the lack of enthusiasm out there. Maybe he proves everyone wrong, but it's hard to dispute the reasoning (and FWIW, I'd be shocked if he were anything better than league-average with SEA - because of the philosophy / in-game play-calling limitations Pete Carroll and whoever his OC is <who really just does what Carroll wants> puts on the O and QB ceiling). Edited June 28, 2022 by Broncofan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 I'll be curious to see how Jimmy plays it. He can guarantee his release if refuses to mess with his contract, but a pay cut to facilitate a trade may he a much higher salary than going to the open market as weird as that sounds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 22 hours ago, SkippyX said: Baker himself has been a pathetic 19,31,15,27 ranked in passer rating (14,27,12,26 in ANY/A) No one wants to pay that stiff 35 million a year. FYI Wentz has been 25,4,7,13,34,13 ranked in passer rating (27,6,12,16,36,13 in ANY/A) Im shedding a tear right now. I finally got through to you! That said, if you discount that Baker was hurt last year, its slightly closer than you make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VonKarman Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 8 games would be a PR nightmare for the NFL, I don't see it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Forge said: And from another source… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 53 minutes ago, VonKarman said: 8 games would be a PR nightmare for the NFL, I don't see it. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 59 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: And from another source… That's what I want to see! Jimmy to the browns, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Forge said: 1 hour ago, kingseanjohn said: source… That's what I want to see! Jimmy to the browns, baby! Btw, MKC is the biggest hack journalist in Cleveland. She’s absolutely reprehensible in every facet. She might be right here but she should be the last Cleveland journalist anyone uses as a source. Grossi is a close 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, MWil23 said: Btw, MKC is the biggest hack journalist in Cleveland. She’s absolutely reprehensible in every facet. She might be right here but she should be the last Cleveland journalist anyone uses as a source. Grossi is a close 2nd. She is wonderful and I'll hear no slander of her if she keeps the dream alive of Jimmy to Cleveland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts