MrOaktown_56 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said: It goes way beyond Maxx Crosby dude. I'm someone who understands the value of 4th round sleeper picks (because the NFL is full of them). Dak Prescott (QB). Kirk Cousins (QB). Kyle Juszczyk (FB). Za'Darius Smith (Edge). Everson Griffen (DE). Geno Atkins (DT). Eddie Jackson (S). Shaq Mason (C). Gabriel Davis (WR). K. J. Wright (LB). Michael Carter (RB). Maxx Crosby (Edge). Kwon Alexander (LB). David Bakhtiari (OT). There's just too many for me to try and list. Chris Carter (WR). Rich Gannon (QB). Charles Haley (DE). Andre Reed (WR). Jared Allen (Edge). Jahri Evans (G). Julius Thomas (TE). Josh Sitton (G). Stephen Gostkowski (K). Asante Samuel (CB). Brandon Marshall (WR). Darren Sproles (RB). Mark Bavaro (TE). Donnie Edwards (LB). Morten Andersen (K). Harry Carson (LB). Steve Largent (WR). John Stallworth (WR). Tom Jackson (LB). Cliff Branch (WR). Etc (4th round list goes on and on). Heck some of my favorite Jets have been 4th round picks. • Leon Johnson (RB/KR). • Jason Fabini (OT). • Jerricho Cotchery (WR). • Kerry Rhodes (FS). • Leon Washington (RB/KR). • Brad Smith (WR/Wildcat QB/KR). • Joe McKnight (KR). • Bilal Powell (#2 RB). • Michael Carter (RB). I'm not sure how your Raiders have 4th round drafted over the years but I'm A+ excited about featuring two early 4th round picks come 2022's NFL draft). Me and you I guess we have different opinions on what's valuable and what's considered evidence (and what's not/isn't). This guy actually went 5th round. The hit rate is ridiculously low on day 3. I can pull percentages but it doesn't fit your narrative 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinsChampionships Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, MrOaktown_56 said: The hit rate is ridiculously low on day 3. I can pull percentages but it doesn't fit your narrative Same can be said about the 1st and 2nd rounds. More busts are drafted than superstar players are (regardless of round). Edited March 23, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrOaktown_56 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Just now, DefenseWinsChampionships said: Same can be said about the 1st and 2nd rounds. More busts are drafted than superstar players are. No it really can't be. The hit rate in the 3rd round and lower is a lot lower than the first 2. I think that's fairly obvious. I wouldn't say getting a very late 1st and mid 2nd for Hill is some kind of coup. Now the cap space and resource allocation is another story, but Miami had capital to spend and they get a proven game-changing WR. Most of the criticism falls on Miami regarding Hill's potential decline, but if we're being honest that's all speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Did i miss the post where Jak posted a long thought out reply selling that Chiefs without Hill are actually better? 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Bearerofnews said: Did i miss the post where Jak posted a long thought out reply selling that Chiefs without Hill are actually better? 😉 with all those picks? In a year? They just might be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 Just now, Deadpulse said: with all those picks? In a year? They just might be. Gotta hit on the picks.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefs_5627 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: Did i miss the post where Jak posted a long thought out reply selling that Chiefs without Hill are actually better? 😉 Ask him @Jakuvious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrawkcab321 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 42 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said: It goes way beyond Maxx Crosby dude. I'm someone who understands the value of 4th round sleeper picks (because the NFL is full of them). Dak Prescott (QB). Kirk Cousins (QB). Kyle Juszczyk (FB). Za'Darius Smith (Edge). Everson Griffen (DE). Geno Atkins (DT). Eddie Jackson (S). Shaq Mason (C). Gabriel Davis (WR). K. J. Wright (LB). Michael Carter (RB). Maxx Crosby (Edge). Kwon Alexander (LB). David Bakhtiari (OT). There's just too many for me to try and list. Chris Carter (WR). Rich Gannon (QB). Charles Haley (DE). Andre Reed (WR). Jared Allen (Edge). Jahri Evans (G). Julius Thomas (TE). Josh Sitton (G). Stephen Gostkowski (K). Asante Samuel (CB). Brandon Marshall (WR). Darren Sproles (RB). Mark Bavaro (TE). Donnie Edwards (LB). Morten Andersen (K). Harry Carson (LB). Steve Largent (WR). John Stallworth (WR). Tom Jackson (LB). Cliff Branch (WR). Etc (4th round list goes on and on). Heck some of my favorite Jets have been 4th round picks. • Leon Johnson (RB/KR). • Jason Fabini (OT). • Jerricho Cotchery (WR). • Kerry Rhodes (FS). • Leon Washington (RB/KR). • Brad Smith (WR/Wildcat QB/KR). • Joe McKnight (KR). • Bilal Powell (#2 RB). • Michael Carter (RB). I'm not sure how your Raiders have 4th round drafted over the years but I'm A+ excited about featuring two early 4th round picks come 2022's NFL draft). Me and you I guess we have different opinions on what's valuable and what's considered evidence (and what's not/isn't). This guy actually went 5th round. You could do this for every round including undrafted players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearerofnews Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Chiefs_5627 said: Ask him @Jakuvious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said: Same can be said about the 1st and 2nd rounds. More busts are drafted than superstar players are (regardless of round). You know you dont just have to randomly spit out silliness? Right? This is a 3 years, the number of all pros by round: 3) Correlation between Draft Position and Reaching "All-Pro" Status For the 171 players designated as either 1st or 2nd team All-Pros across the three years spanning 2012 through 2014, we found the following: Round Freq. Percent Cuml. 1 83 48.5 48.5 2 24 14.0 62.6 3 15 8.8 71.4 4 12 7.0 78.4 5 9 5.3 83.6 6 6 3.5 87.1 7 2 1.2 88.3 Undrafted 18 10.5 98.8 Supplemental 2 1.2 100.0 Total 171 100 So the difference between a 1st rounder (48.5%) to 4th (7%) is quite enormous. There are *many many* studies like this. Including just starters by round. They are all ballpark in the same results. Also, since we are talking about rounds, lets talk about efficiency. The important thing in this next chart is 10 year list. It list in order how well teams have used their draft capitol. In other words, how much having "a ton of picks" matters. Return vs. Capital So now we come to the true test of drafting ability. How much return did each team get relative to the draft capital it had? We can find out by dividing each team's draft return by its draft capital in each year, then expressing that as a percentage. A score of 100% means that teams got the talent they were expected to get given how much draft capital they had. That's a league-average GM in drafting ability. Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, 2010-2019 Team 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10-Yr 5-Yr SEA 132% 224% 236% 77% 88% 175% 117% 107% 121% 74% 135% 111% GB 178% 121% 90% 206% 125% 94% 139% 113% 87% 69% 120% 98% DAL 154% 125% 60% 111% 175% 104% 163% 103% 110% 62% 120% 118% PIT 188% 125% 119% 120% 90% 71% 99% 146% 83% 114% 117% 103% NO 125% 119% 164% 143% 67% 72% 128% 151% 70% 148% 114% 111% BAL 61% 138% 85% 175% 108% 94% 94% 73% 185% 118% 113% 113% KC 70% 108% 73% 94% 143% 165% 142% 141% 71% 185% 113% 142% NE 139% 95% 121% 128% 123% 155% 190% 60% 71% 41% 112% 102% WAS 98% 102% 115% 118% 154% 108% 65% 103% 73% 138% 108% 101% ATL 84% 154% 56% 108% 97% 116% 149% 84% 117% 96% 108% 113% MIN 94% 76% 89% 90% 104% 169% 51% 172% 94% 124% 106% 126% HOU 91% 129% 137% 111% 69% 89% 87% 142% 127% 98% 106% 108% IND 108% 68% 96% 54% 117% 104% 122% 111% 146% 83% 105% 117% CAR 114% 73% 123% 129% 132% 128% 80% 119% 97% 66% 104% 99% MIA 135% 114% 117% 50% 108% 108% 100% 86% 118% 119% 103% 106% CHI 128% 80% 60% 149% 98% 73% 112% 108% 104% 162% 101% 103% PHI 90% 104% 128% 117% 55% 90% 131% 69% 111% 83% 98% 95% DEN 130% 102% 129% 58% 123% 83% 131% 53% 86% 81% 98% 85% BUF 44% 83% 101% 98% 94% 129% 54% 162% 107% 130% 97% 115% DET 86% 33% 86% 143% 101% 93% 128% 111% 99% 61% 95% 97% OAK 79% 99% 121% 102% 171% 68% 61% 63% 101% 90% 94% 79% LAR 67% 70% 87% 86% 94% 125% 71% 148% 103% 131% 94% 114% CIN 132% 116% 105% 94% 91% 50% 113% 81% 100% 53% 94% 78% SF 116% 110% 35% 73% 74% 100% 63% 92% 101% 140% 93% 100% NYG 98% 52% 43% 84% 117% 98% 77% 91% 89% 120% 90% 97% LAC 91% 84% 86% 116% 40% 127% 65% 120% 107% 57% 90% 95% ARI 104% 85% 108% 105% 81% 141% 52% 64% 71% 85% 90% 84% JAX 53% 47% 60% 59% 127% 63% 114% 77% 126% 137% 87% 101% TEN 76% 95% 81% 49% 123% 58% 96% 77% 105% 137% 87% 90% TB 62% 67% 111% 110% 78% 126% 47% 78% 78% 111% 86% 90% CLE 84% 96% 80% 39% 61% 77% 80% 63% 77% 164% 78% 81% NYJ 47% 164% 85% 77% 42% 51% 108% 72% 68% 66% 74% 71% Percentage of CarAV generated by drafted players (relative to total CarAV in the draft), divided by percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used. Edited March 23, 2022 by Matts4313 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefs_5627 Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: Can't be afraid of big bad @Jakuvious, it's ok to say his name 2 times, just not 3 like Candyman 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllThingsTN Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 44 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said: It goes way beyond Maxx Crosby dude. I'm someone who understands the value of 4th round sleeper picks (because the NFL is full of them). Dak Prescott (QB). Kirk Cousins (QB). Kyle Juszczyk (FB). Za'Darius Smith (Edge). Everson Griffen (DE). Geno Atkins (DT). Eddie Jackson (S). Shaq Mason (C). Gabriel Davis (WR). K. J. Wright (LB). Michael Carter (RB). Maxx Crosby (Edge). Kwon Alexander (LB). David Bakhtiari (OT). There's just too many for me to try and list. Chris Carter (WR). Rich Gannon (QB). Charles Haley (DE). Andre Reed (WR). Jared Allen (Edge). Jahri Evans (G). Julius Thomas (TE). Josh Sitton (G). Stephen Gostkowski (K). Asante Samuel (CB). Brandon Marshall (WR). Darren Sproles (RB). Mark Bavaro (TE). Donnie Edwards (LB). Morten Andersen (K). Harry Carson (LB). Steve Largent (WR). John Stallworth (WR). Tom Jackson (LB). Cliff Branch (WR). Etc (4th round list goes on and on). Heck some of my favorite Jets have been 4th round picks. • Leon Johnson (RB/KR). • Jason Fabini (OT). • Jerricho Cotchery (WR). • Kerry Rhodes (FS). • Leon Washington (RB/KR). • Brad Smith (WR/Wildcat QB/KR). • Joe McKnight (KR). • Bilal Powell (#2 RB). • Michael Carter (RB). I'm not sure how your Raiders have 4th round drafted over the years but I'm A+ excited about featuring two early 4th round picks come 2022's NFL draft). Me and you I guess we have different opinions on what's valuable and what's considered evidence (and what's not/isn't). This guy actually went 5th round. Oh man…I remember my first draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrantikRam Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 The Dolphins are still irrelevant and the Chiefs are likely to be worse. I think both teams lost this trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said: Gotta hit on the picks.. I mean that's a lot of chances, its almost like adding a full draft class Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedGold Posted March 23, 2022 Share Posted March 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chiefs_5627 said: Can't be afraid of big bad @Jakuvious, it's ok to say his name 2 times, just not 3 like Candyman He’s probably still processing lol. The return is obviously excellent. But Tyreek was such a big part of the team and despite what most think, well regarded in KC. Coupled with that fact this all went down so quick. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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