Chiefs trade WR Tyreek Hill to Dolphins for 2022 1st + 2nd, 4th + 2023 4th + 6th, Give him 4 year, $120M, $72.2M gtd (Page 18)

[Hunter2_1]

10 hours ago, viking said:

Huge L for both sides.

 

KC isn't gonna be able to replace the generational talent that is Tyreek (The child Abuser) Hill

Miami doesn't have the QB to fully utilise the child abuser and already traded 2 1sts for a similar player in Waddle

 

 

Was Waddle not good last year?

[Kip Smithers]

14 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

I don't think anyone is saying he's brittle.

We're just saying that speed can start to drop off a little when a player gets close to 30.

So Tyreek goes from by far the fastest WR in league to being, wait for it, the fastest Wr in league. What a bummer if true.

[WizeGuy]

16 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I don't agree at all that the Dolphins lost here. 

 

They just got one of the most elite, dynamic playmakers the game has ever seen, effectively for less than what Jamal Adams fetched. The last time they had a late 1st round pick, they took a nickel CB. In an era where speed and YAC are the name of the game, they got one of the best in the business. 

Sure, it's a lot, but in the grand scheme of things you're incredibly unlikely to get a Tyreek-like return from those picks.

That said, it's not as if the Chiefs are losers here. When you have a QB on a mega-contract, you have to make difficult financial choices, and this is one of them. They got a solid haul for a guy who simply wanted the most money he could get and with a QB like Mahomes, they should be able to draft/sign a good enough cast of receiving options to still be a potent offense. 

Agreed. It's a great trade for both side. I don't think Tua will ever be elite, though it's possible, but I could see him becoming a franchise guy. This trade will help him possibly fulfil that potential. Good move for the Dolphins. 

[Chiefs_5627]

4 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

I said the name three times and this is what popped up:

Where's a fly swatter when you need one!

[Danger]

3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Was Waddle not good last year?

He amassed bulk stats that's for sure. Tua's throwing all the short passes.

104 catches on 140 targets for 1015 yards. Under 10 yards per reception. Average depth of Tua's passes was 7.0 yards last year, only Ben Roethlisberger (who was cooked, no retired) and Jared Goff were lower.

[Nabbs4u]

20 minutes ago, Danger said:

He amassed bulk stats that's for sure. Tua's throwing all the short passes.

104 catches on 140 targets for 1015 yards. Under 10 yards per reception. Average depth of Tua's passes was 7.0 yards last year, only Ben Roethlisberger (who was cooked, no retired) and Jared Goff were lower.

Tends to happen when you have the worst Oline in football. Hopefully that's changing with the additions of Terron and Conner, possibly another FA Olineman.

 

 

Quote

 

32. MIAMI DOLPHINS (NO CHANGE)

Best-graded: G Robert Hunt | 63.0

Worst-graded: G Austin Jackson | 47.8

Miami’s offensive line isn’t just the worst in the NFL; it is a historically bad unit. The group is allowing the highest pressure rate in the league (43.3%), despite being well protected with RPOs and quick passing. Tua Tagovailoa’s average depth of target is just 6.9 yards downfield, the second-lowest in the league. Miami rosters three of the NFL's 10 worst offensive linemen this season in terms of total pressures surrendered, and nobody boasts an overall PFF grade higher than 63.0 overall. It is a minor miracle that Tagovailoa looks functional behind this line

 

.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Nabbs4u

[Duluther]

21 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Tends to happen when you have the worst Oline in football. Hopefully that's changing with the additions of Terron and Conner, possibly another FA Olineman.

 

 

.

Perhaps it would have been more responsible of the Dolphins to improve their OL (beyond adding oft injured Armstead when they have five available spots) than throwing a 1st, 2 2nds, 2 4ths, and major money on their second speedster WR.

[Nabbs4u]

5 minutes ago, Duluther said:

Perhaps it would have been more responsible of the Dolphins to improve their OL (beyond adding oft injured Armstead when they have five available spots) than throwing a 1st, 2 2nds, 2 4ths, and major money on their second speedster WR.

No argument here. 

[TheKillerNacho]

7 minutes ago, Duluther said:

Perhaps it would have been more responsible of the Dolphins to improve their OL (beyond adding oft injured Armstead when they have five available spots) than throwing a 1st, 2 2nds, 2 4ths, and major money on their second speedster WR.

Definitely.

[TheKillerNacho]

That said, we still have more than enough cap room to bring in a few more veteran OL.

I'm done with Grier trying to draft them... all OL we draft bust horribly.

[hrubes20]

1 hour ago, Nabbs4u said:

Tends to happen when you have the worst Oline in football. Hopefully that's changing with the additions of Terron and Conner, possibly another FA Olineman.

 

 

.

What the hell?  A non-Miami fan correctly realizing that the historically bad OL in Miami was the reason Tua had to throw 7 yards all season?  I'm confused.  

1 hour ago, Duluther said:

Perhaps it would have been more responsible of the Dolphins to improve their OL (beyond adding oft injured Armstead when they have five available spots) than throwing a 1st, 2 2nds, 2 4ths, and major money on their second speedster WR.

It absolutely would have been.  If the Fins don't upgrade one of C or RT still this offseason, all the fancy new toys may not make much of a difference. 

1 hour ago, TheKillerNacho said:

That said, we still have more than enough cap room to bring in a few more veteran OL.

I'm done with Grier trying to draft them... all OL we draft bust horribly.

Fins are pulling out the big guns to try and get Tretter.  

 

[vegas492]

15 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

You know you dont just have to randomly spit out silliness? Right? This is a 3 years, the number of all pros by round:

3) Correlation between Draft Position and Reaching "All-Pro" Status

For the 171 players designated as either 1st or 2nd team All-Pros across the three years spanning 2012 through 2014, we found the following:

Round	Freq.	Percent	Cuml.
1	83	48.5	48.5
2	24	14.0	62.6
3	15	8.8	71.4
4	12	7.0	78.4
5	9	5.3	83.6
6	6	3.5	87.1
7	2	1.2	88.3
Undrafted	18	10.5	98.8
Supplemental	2	1.2	100.0
Total	171	100

 

So the difference between a 1st rounder (48.5%) to 4th (7%) is quite enormous. There are *many many* studies like this. Including just starters by round. They are all ballpark in the same results. 

 

Also, since we are talking about rounds, lets talk about efficiency. The important thing in this next chart is 10 year list. It list in order how well teams have used their draft capitol. In other words, how much having "a ton of picks" matters. 

Return vs. Capital

So now we come to the true test of drafting ability. How much return did each team get relative to the draft capital it had? We can find out by dividing each team's draft return by its draft capital in each year, then expressing that as a percentage. A score of 100% means that teams got the talent they were expected to get given how much draft capital they had. That's a league-average GM in drafting ability.

Draft Return vs. Draft Capital, 2010-2019
Team	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	10-Yr	5-Yr
SEA	132%	224%	236%	77%	88%	175%	117%	107%	121%	74%	135%	111%
GB	178%	121%	90%	206%	125%	94%	139%	113%	87%	69%	120%	98%
DAL	154%	125%	60%	111%	175%	104%	163%	103%	110%	62%	120%	118%
PIT	188%	125%	119%	120%	90%	71%	99%	146%	83%	114%	117%	103%
NO	125%	119%	164%	143%	67%	72%	128%	151%	70%	148%	114%	111%
BAL	61%	138%	85%	175%	108%	94%	94%	73%	185%	118%	113%	113%
KC	70%	108%	73%	94%	143%	165%	142%	141%	71%	185%	113%	142%
NE	139%	95%	121%	128%	123%	155%	190%	60%	71%	41%	112%	102%
WAS	98%	102%	115%	118%	154%	108%	65%	103%	73%	138%	108%	101%
ATL	84%	154%	56%	108%	97%	116%	149%	84%	117%	96%	108%	113%
MIN	94%	76%	89%	90%	104%	169%	51%	172%	94%	124%	106%	126%
HOU	91%	129%	137%	111%	69%	89%	87%	142%	127%	98%	106%	108%
IND	108%	68%	96%	54%	117%	104%	122%	111%	146%	83%	105%	117%
CAR	114%	73%	123%	129%	132%	128%	80%	119%	97%	66%	104%	99%
MIA	135%	114%	117%	50%	108%	108%	100%	86%	118%	119%	103%	106%
CHI	128%	80%	60%	149%	98%	73%	112%	108%	104%	162%	101%	103%
PHI	90%	104%	128%	117%	55%	90%	131%	69%	111%	83%	98%	95%
DEN	130%	102%	129%	58%	123%	83%	131%	53%	86%	81%	98%	85%
BUF	44%	83%	101%	98%	94%	129%	54%	162%	107%	130%	97%	115%
DET	86%	33%	86%	143%	101%	93%	128%	111%	99%	61%	95%	97%
OAK	79%	99%	121%	102%	171%	68%	61%	63%	101%	90%	94%	79%
LAR	67%	70%	87%	86%	94%	125%	71%	148%	103%	131%	94%	114%
CIN	132%	116%	105%	94%	91%	50%	113%	81%	100%	53%	94%	78%
SF	116%	110%	35%	73%	74%	100%	63%	92%	101%	140%	93%	100%
NYG	98%	52%	43%	84%	117%	98%	77%	91%	89%	120%	90%	97%
LAC	91%	84%	86%	116%	40%	127%	65%	120%	107%	57%	90%	95%
ARI	104%	85%	108%	105%	81%	141%	52%	64%	71%	85%	90%	84%
JAX	53%	47%	60%	59%	127%	63%	114%	77%	126%	137%	87%	101%
TEN	76%	95%	81%	49%	123%	58%	96%	77%	105%	137%	87%	90%
TB	62%	67%	111%	110%	78%	126%	47%	78%	78%	111%	86%	90%
CLE	84%	96%	80%	39%	61%	77%	80%	63%	77%	164%	78%	81%
NYJ	47%	164%	85%	77%	42%	51%	108%	72%	68%	66%	74%	71%
Percentage of CarAV generated by drafted players (relative to total CarAV in the draft), divided by percentage of expected CarAV from draft picks used.

This is just an excellent post.  Thought it needed more view time.

Thank you.

[Tommy_C]

Fantasy Football question here ...

PPR

Keep Tyreek for a 10th round pick 

or

Keep JK Dobbins for a 12th round pick

 

Gotta be Hill right?

[Sad People]

2 minutes ago, Tommy_C said:

Fantasy Football question here ...

PPR

Keep Tyreek for a 10th round pick 

or

Keep JK Dobbins for a 12th round pick

 

Gotta be Hill right?

With ease How did Tyreek last to round 10

[Mr Raider]

16 hours ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

Same can be said about the 1st and 2nd rounds. 

More busts are drafted than superstar players are (regardless of round).

No it can't. 

I've examined the numbers pretty extensively, and I'm sure you can check my post history on the Raider forum if you would like to see them. 

It works exactly like one would expect, but the numbers can be shocking to actually see. The first round has the biggest success rate for all teams if the bar is all pro to solid starting caliber player, the second round sees a dip but that's primarily in the all pro-pro bowl caliber player tier and still fields a high success rate in terms of solid starters. When you get to rounds 4-7, check ANY team in the NFL and look at their history for those rounds. Now break down the percentages of how often even a decent starter or high end role player is found. It's significantly lower than most people would even believe. Even for the most well run, best drafting franchises. If you get a guy that even stays on the team for the duration of their rookie contract you are doing better in most drafts than 80% of the league in that range. 

I can go draft by draft and show you the caliber of player you are most likely to get if you really want to die on this hill. 

Edit - I see Matts beat me to it with some studies done on the topic. He's absolutely right. When I did a deep dive on it and saw the numbers, particularly for rounds 4-7 I was shocked (even while going in believing it was very much a crap shoot) at how infrequently high caliber players were drafted. It really changed my views on how those rounds should be approached and how players taken there should be evaluated (and how much credit any GM should get when some 6th round pick becomes an all pro because it is far closer to luck than it is a indicator of a skill because even the best drafting team can't find those caliber players with regularity. The skill in those rounds is finding guys that can play out their entire rookie contract, be great special teams players, and earn a spot on the roster as depth, not the random pro bowl/all pro once in a blue moon player).

Edited March 24, 2022 by Mr Raider