Fantasy Sleepers this year?

[BayRaider]

8 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I like Sutton, Davis, and Hollywood in the round 4-5 range. And guys like Davis, Woods, Boyd, and Gage later in fantasy. Gage should have a huge role for Tampa Bay with Godwin likely starting the year on the PUP list. Davis will be the Bills #2 WR this year with Sanders/Beasley no longer in the picture. We've talked about Woods and I think Boyd has a chance for a big year with Higgins potentially not being 100% to start the season.

Hollywood is a huge candidate to finish Top 9-12 range. He should get tons of targets and can take it to the house. He also has chemistry with Murray. And while I think Lamar is a better QB than Murray, I do think Murray is more accurate. Some of my favorite WR’s in fantasy this year are all Late 4th Rounders in Sutton, McLaurin, and Hollywood. 

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, BayRaider said:

Hollywood is a huge candidate to finish Top 9-12 range. He should get tons of targets and can take it to the house. He also has chemistry with Murray. And while I think Lamar is a better QB than Murray, I do think Murray is more accurate. Some of my favorite WR’s in fantasy this year are all Late 4th Rounders in Sutton, McLaurin, and Hollywood. 

As starters Lamar Jackson has averaged 205 passing ypg and Murray has averaged 250 ypg, Hollywood will have a lot more opportunities in the Cardinals offense and I think Kliff will do a better job then the Ravens did at scheming him the ball in space. Outside of the top tier WRs I think my favorites are: Jaylen Waddle, Hollywood Brown, Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson, Mike Williams, Gabe Davis, Robert Woods, Russell Gage, and Tyler Boyd.

Who are some of your later round sleepers? Some guys I like: 

• Isaiah McKenzie, Bills - Reportedly going to be the Bills primary slot WR and has gamebreaking speed. 

• Paris Campbell, Colts - Has been running with their first team offense and reportedly has built chemistry with Ryan.

• Jahan Dotson, Commanders - Has reportedly been very good in OTAs and has built chemistry with Wentz as Terry has sat out.

• Will Fuller, FA - He was WR9 on a ppg basis the last time we saw him healthy, just needs to end up in a decent situation. 

• Jarvis Landry, Saints - Reportedly has been dominating the Saints OTAs and could be WR1 if Thomas isn't healthy.

 

[BayRaider]

4 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

As starters Lamar Jackson has averaged 205 passing ypg and Murray has averaged 250 ypg, Hollywood will have a lot more opportunities in the Cardinals offense and I think Kliff will do a better job then the Ravens did at scheming him the ball in space. Outside of the top tier WRs I think my favorites are: Jaylen Waddle, Hollywood Brown, Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson, Mike Williams, Gabe Davis, Robert Woods, Russell Gage, and Tyler Boyd.

Who are some of your later round sleepers? Some guys I like: 

• Isaiah McKenzie, Bills - Reportedly going to be the Bills primary slot WR and has gamebreaking speed. 

• Paris Campbell, Colts - Has been running with their first team offense and reportedly has built chemistry with Ryan.

• Jahan Dotson, Commanders - Has reportedly been very good in OTAs and has built chemistry with Wentz as Terry has sat out.

• Will Fuller, FA - He was WR9 on a ppg basis the last time we saw him healthy, just needs to end up in a decent situation. 

• Jarvis Landry, Saints - Reportedly has been dominating the Saints OTAs and could be WR1 if Thomas isn't healthy.

 

I have Fuller in a lot of my earlier leagues I did in May, but his situation is becoming too unclear for me. I also read he was considering retirement, although the articles were from less reputable sites. 

The other deep sleepers you listed, not really into. 

A super deep 19th-20th Round sleeper I like is Randall Cobb. He’s younger than I thought at 31. And he fits the bestball criteria, usually does nothing and then pops a crazy game a few times a year. 

The problem with Cobb is he might lose his job to Amari Rodgers, so I’ve been alternating the two, but mostly picking Cobb. 

Another deep sleeper is Velus Jones, who imo will get more volume than Pringle. But that offense might be pretty bad. I’d only get Velus if you have Fields. 

Deep Sleeper RB, Kenyan Drake, he’s basically free…. 

As for your WR list, I also love Woods. Gonna get a ton of targets. 

[NYRaider]

12 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I have Fuller in a lot of my earlier leagues I did in May, but his situation is becoming too unclear for me. I also read he was considering retirement, although the articles were from less reputable sites. 

The other deep sleepers you listed, not really into. 

A super deep 19th-20th Round sleeper I like is Randall Cobb. He’s younger than I thought at 31. And he fits the bestball criteria, usually does nothing and then pops a crazy game a few times a year. 

The problem with Cobb is he might lose his job to Amari Rodgers, so I’ve been alternating the two, but mostly picking Cobb. 

Another deep sleeper is Velus Jones, who imo will get more volume than Pringle. But that offense might be pretty bad. I’d only get Velus if you have Fields. 

Deep Sleeper RB, Kenyan Drake, he’s basically free…. 

As for your WR list, I also love Woods. Gonna get a ton of targets. 

I thought Fuller was destined to end up with the Browns but with Watson's impending suspension, I don't think he will. 

Randall Cobb is a solid sleeper, he's one of Rodgers only guys left on the team so I doubt that another WR takes his place and wouldn't be shocked if he leads the Packers in receiving this season. 

James Washington is another deep sleeper I like with Gallup expected to miss the first portion of the season. 

The only players I'd touch in the Bears offense are Montgomery/Mooney, possibly Fields if he shows some improvement early on and runs effectively, and maybe Cole Kmet if I get desperate at TE. 

And I'm surprised that you don't like Dotson, he's probably my second favorite rookie WR after Jameo. London, Wilson, Burks, and Watson don't really excite me this season. I could see Kyle Phillips winning the Titans starting slot role and putting up decent production this year. 

As far as late round handcuffs go I think Kenyan Drake, Matt Breida, Brian Robinson, Jamal Williams, Samaje Perine, and Darrell Williams are all guys to monitor throughout the season because if the guy ahead of them gets hurt they should all be the primary RB in their offenses. 

Edited June 25, 2022 by NYRaider

[101Raider]

Not really sleepers, but guys I’m targeting hard…

RB:
Cam Akers (with a pairing of Henderson late) McVay is a 1 RB Truther. Late 3rd round ADP? Sign me up

Hunt, Dillon and Melvin Gordon: undervalued gems as RB2s. Much better value than their more expensive counterparts. Top 5-10 production if other half gets hurt

WRs:

Mike Williams, Gabriel Davis, Sutton/Jeudy, Hollywood, Bateman, Gage and Lazard. Pretty sure it’s the same list as everyone else…

TE:

Ertz for the 6 game bump while Hopkins is out

Okwuegbunam: betting on the Wilson bump laaaate.

QB: 

Hurts is my bet at the position to outperform. Dual threat runner/passer with improved WRs (specifically a YAC monster) is a recipe for success. 

 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

16 hours ago, 101Raider said:

Not really sleepers, but guys I’m targeting hard…

RB:
Cam Akers (with a pairing of Henderson late) McVay is a 1 RB Truther. Late 3rd round ADP? Sign me up

Yea its weird that he gets faulted so hard for a bad playoff run after a terrible injury. If he would've just not come back his ADP is probably 10 spots higher

Makes me feel the same about Baker Mayfield, like he played thru a bad injury and his value tanked. If he just went to the IR he probably would be on a team by now that wants him

[Trentwannabe]

On 6/25/2022 at 6:18 AM, NYRaider said:

• Isaiah McKenzie, Bills - Reportedly going to be the Bills primary slot WR and has gamebreaking speed. 

Jamison Crowder 

[Dr LBC]

Like I said, I'm hesitant to slap the "sleeper" label on anyone right now, because it's really too early (can a get even really be "slept" on if he's not being undervalued on actual drafts?).

That said, guys that I expect to outproduce their current ADP's and are high on my post-5th-round target list:

Hunter Renfroe
  - I play in one particular league that has a heavy slant in scoring for consistent TD threats.  And I'm not going to make the lazy comp of Renfroe to Edelman, but I do think that with the chemistry already being there between him and Carr (and it may not happen early on because of the "shiny new toy" syndrome), but I can very much see teams just constantly deciding to double Davante in the red zone, and while I think it may take Carr getting burned a couple times for trying to force it anyway, I can see him relatively quickly deciding to just take the easier/less-contested look to Renfroe or a RB (or Waller - which really may be the only thing giving Waller value anywhere near his ADP because his past success has come off being a volume guy, which he definitely won't be anymore), and that McDaniels is savvy enough to start scripting plays to the end if there's early success with them.

Adam Thielen
- Let's not act like he didn't have a significant stretch of games recently where he was WR7 in fantasy.  Justin Jefferson living up to the hype has suddenly got people just seeming to forget that Thielen exists - and in O'Connell's offense if he can assume even 90% of a Robert Woods role (which he very much has the skill set to do), that's been good for consistent week-to-week WR2 numbers in fantasy the past several seasons.  I've seen the guy slipping to the 7th and 8th round in mocks and I'm more than happy to snap up shares there.

As far as last pick dart throws go, I'm keeping a close eye on Noah Brown in the preseason.  I know there's this assumption that Cooper being traded and Gallup coming back from injury means that CeeDee is going to just get force-fed a glut of targets.  And on paper that's sound. Thing is, in the practice of what we've seen of Kellen Moore's offense, that's not been how things work and the WR3 and WR4 in the Cowboys' offense has at least spats (predictability isn't great, but that's why it's last-round value) of having fantasy relevance.  Brown has, with a healthy Dak, shown in the past that when necessity created a situation for him to receive regular targets in games, he produces (which is honestly more than I can say for James Washington, despite the hype he got in the past).

[Sllim Pickens]

People are really sleeping on Amon Ra St Brown still.  I get that Detroit added weapons but both of the other WRs coming in are coming off season ending surgeries and Jameo likely won't be ready at the start of the season.  ARSB was WR2 behind Kupp from week 12 on last year when Dan Campbell took over play calling and had a backup QB for 2 games in that stretch.  He got no less than 10 targets a game down the stretch and no less than 8 catches (plus had 7 rushing attempts). Goff threw it 41, 39, 29, 30 pass attempts a game and Boyle threw it 34 and 37 times in those games so I expect there to be plenty of balls to go around. 

Even if those targets dip a little with more competition, he still should out produce those in his draft area (JuJu, Theilen, Lockett, Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Devonte Smith, Lazard etc).  Many are putting guys like Mooney and Gage, Bateman etc above him because of their situation but they have never produced so its all just hopeful they breakout but it likely will be one of the other unheard of WRs that does something.  Some high upside injury returners in Godwin and Thomas in that range as well but they are risky.  I think ARSB finishes top 20 as a WR with potential to be higher if those targets remain close to consistent.  

[Dr LBC]

10 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

People are really sleeping on Amon Ra St Brown still.  I get that Detroit added weapons but both of the other WRs coming in are coming off season ending surgeries and Jameo likely won't be ready at the start of the season.  ARSB was WR2 behind Kupp from week 12 on last year when Dan Campbell took over play calling and had a backup QB for 2 games in that stretch.  He got no less than 10 targets a game down the stretch and no less than 8 catches (plus had 7 rushing attempts). Goff threw it 41, 39, 29, 30 pass attempts a game and Boyle threw it 34 and 37 times in those games so I expect there to be plenty of balls to go around. 

Even if those targets dip a little with more competition, he still should out produce those in his draft area (JuJu, Theilen, Lockett, Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Devonte Smith, Lazard etc).  Many are putting guys like Mooney and Gage, Bateman etc above him because of their situation but they have never produced so its all just hopeful they breakout but it likely will be one of the other unheard of WRs that does something.  Some high upside injury returners in Godwin and Thomas in that range as well but they are risky.  I think ARSB finishes top 20 as a WR with potential to be higher if those targets remain close to consistent.  

On this note, I do think that some of the targets being afforded to Swift in projections are more likely to go St. Brown's way if the shift in play-calling to what we saw from Campbell versus what we were seeing from Anthony Lynn.

[NYRaider]

On 7/6/2022 at 7:16 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

People are really sleeping on Amon Ra St Brown still.  I get that Detroit added weapons but both of the other WRs coming in are coming off season ending surgeries and Jameo likely won't be ready at the start of the season.  ARSB was WR2 behind Kupp from week 12 on last year when Dan Campbell took over play calling and had a backup QB for 2 games in that stretch.  He got no less than 10 targets a game down the stretch and no less than 8 catches (plus had 7 rushing attempts). Goff threw it 41, 39, 29, 30 pass attempts a game and Boyle threw it 34 and 37 times in those games so I expect there to be plenty of balls to go around. 

Even if those targets dip a little with more competition, he still should out produce those in his draft area (JuJu, Theilen, Lockett, Aiyuk, Elijah Moore, Jeudy, Gabe Davis, Devonte Smith, Lazard etc).  Many are putting guys like Mooney and Gage, Bateman etc above him because of their situation but they have never produced so its all just hopeful they breakout but it likely will be one of the other unheard of WRs that does something.  Some high upside injury returners in Godwin and Thomas in that range as well but they are risky.  I think ARSB finishes top 20 as a WR with potential to be higher if those targets remain close to consistent.  

Mooney had 81/1,085 last season. I like ARSB for sure but I am a little concerned with the competition he'll have for targets with Hockenson/Chark/Jameo/Reynolds not to mention Swift/Williams. 

[NYRaider]

Julio Jones looks poised to be a big time sleeper now that he's in Tampa Bay. He kind of takes some of Gage's momentum away.

[NYRaider]

On 7/5/2022 at 1:25 PM, Dr LBC said:

As far as last pick dart throws go, I'm keeping a close eye on Noah Brown in the preseason.  I know there's this assumption that Cooper being traded and Gallup coming back from injury means that CeeDee is going to just get force-fed a glut of targets.  And on paper that's sound. Thing is, in the practice of what we've seen of Kellen Moore's offense, that's not been how things work and the WR3 and WR4 in the Cowboys' offense has at least spats (predictability isn't great, but that's why it's last-round value) of having fantasy relevance.  Brown has, with a healthy Dak, shown in the past that when necessity created a situation for him to receive regular targets in games, he produces (which is honestly more than I can say for James Washington, despite the hype he got in the past).

I personally like James Washington a lot more than Noah Brown as a sleeper pick. I also don't think that Cooper's absence really pushes Lamb's target share to some astronomical level, I think the main beneficiary will likely be Dalton Schultz. 

[BayRaider]

15 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Julio Jones looks poised to be a big time sleeper now that he's in Tampa Bay. He kind of takes some of Gage's momentum away.

I think Jones is a zombie. Likely 500 yards and a couple TD’s. 

The REAL sleeper on that Tampa Bay WR room is Darden. I’ve been drafting him since May here or there. And now he’s getting serious camp buzz. 

[adamq]

On 7/6/2022 at 9:06 PM, Dr LBC said:

On this note, I do think that some of the targets being afforded to Swift in projections are more likely to go St. Brown's way if the shift in play-calling to what we saw from Campbell versus what we were seeing from Anthony Lynn.

IIRC all of his big games came late in the year when there was nobody else to target... if Hock, Chark, Swift are healthy I'm not so sure he gets that volume