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Round 2 Pick 34; Christian Watson, WR, NDSU


Packerraymond

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17 hours ago, JordanLoveFTW said:

Watson profiles as having more burst than long speed. I’m not sure which is better. 
 

Theoretically, Watson should be able to create more early separation. It’s like when he gets the ball in his hands and just explodes away from defenders. 
 

MVS on the other hand had more build up speed. 
 

It will be interesting to see how his athletic profile (10 yard burst, less long speed) translates to the field compared to MVS. 

Less long speed? Watson ran 4.36 Scantling ran 4.37 in 40 yards. At that point, how much separation could MVS gain  in another 20 yards or so? The balls not going 50-60 yards too often. 

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1 hour ago, MantyWrestler said:

Less long speed? Watson ran 4.36 Scantling ran 4.37 in 40 yards. At that point, how much separation could MVS gain  in another 20 yards or so? The balls not going 50-60 yards too often. 

I have no idea what he's seeing, he has legit long speed as well. If there was a difference, it's so minimal. 

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4 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I have no idea what he's seeing, he has legit long speed as well. If there was a difference, it's so minimal. 

MVS flying 20 is .12 faster than Watson, that is significant. There's only one player I've seen with a sub 1.8 flying 20 (other than MVS) and that is Tyreek Hill.

MVS is arguably the fastest player in the NFL at top speed, and clearly faster than Watson.

Watson was 1.45 in the 10 yard and 2.45 in the 20, those were two of the best times in the entire draft. His flying 20 is not overly special though. Watson is more explosive than fast. His GPS data at the Senior Bowl confirms this. He's still plenty fast, but where he is "rare" is the first 20 yards.

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57 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

MVS flying 20 is .12 faster than Watson, that is significant. There's only one player I've seen with a sub 1.8 flying 20 (other than MVS) and that is Tyreek Hill.

MVS is arguably the fastest player in the NFL at top speed, and clearly faster than Watson.

Watson was 1.45 in the 10 yard and 2.45 in the 20, those were two of the best times in the entire draft. His flying 20 is not overly special though. Watson is more explosive than fast. His GPS data at the Senior Bowl confirms this. He's still plenty fast, but where he is "rare" is the first 20 yards.

Does he maintain the speed down field though? Like the explosion that generates the speed. Is his speed capping out after explodes out of that 20?

Edited by Gopackgonerd
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Just now, Gopackgonerd said:

Does he maintain the speed down field though? Like the explosion that generates the speed. Is he ever capping out as he's running? 

Everyone caps out at a certain speed. Watson's according to GPS data is around 21 mph, which is fast. MVS has GPS data that put him close to 23 mph. 

Long story short, Watson is plenty fast, but has rare explosion. MVS has average explosion, but rare top speed. 

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I'll take the explosive because that will give him better separation on more routes. Watson still has plenty of long speed. Most guys who were nearly as explosive as Watson didn't have his long speed.

Watson = 1.45 10, 4.36 40

Olave = 1.45 10, 4.39 40

Pierce = 1.46 10, 4.41 40

Moore = 1.46 10, 4.41 40

MVS did have freaky long speed though (ala Usain Bolt). Bottom line is that Watson still gets to 40 yards faster (and how many throws are longer than 40), and projects to be a better route runner because of his explosiveness.

Edited by TheEagle
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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

MVS flying 20 is .12 faster than Watson, that is significant. There's only one player I've seen with a sub 1.8 flying 20 (other than MVS) and that is Tyreek Hill.

MVS is arguably the fastest player in the NFL at top speed, and clearly faster than Watson.

Watson was 1.45 in the 10 yard and 2.45 in the 20, those were two of the best times in the entire draft. His flying 20 is not overly special though. Watson is more explosive than fast. His GPS data at the Senior Bowl confirms this. He's still plenty fast, but where he is "rare" is the first 20 yards.

Good stuff. Best of luck to MVS. The Packers let him go without a fight at 10 mil per year. I think they perceived that the "threat" of MVS was a good thing, but the threat + production + $ was not adding up to 10 mil for them.

I've only seen the freaky highlights for Watson. As someone who knows little about this stuff, I am, after all, a simple neanderthal and your technology frightens me, it sure seems to me that the exciting part of his game is seeing someone 6'4" and 210 employing that change of direction at speed while still showing acceleration. Much like Gary, I am really hoping these physical tools translate. Maybe NFL defenses will have no trouble handling that kind of speedy wiggle. Maybe he has trouble employing that speedy wiggle to create the space that puts him in the right place at the right time against the defense that unfolds after the snap.

As someone else has said, I have a hard time believing that MVS field-stretching is not his absolute floor. Granted, that would be functional, but a disappointment. If he gets close to Adams/Jennings/Sharpe territory, so much the better.

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MVS got a $30/3 deal, has had a 690-yard season, and has averaged >500 yards while missing a whole lot of time to injuries.  

**If** Watson's floor is MVS as receiver, while being a better blocker, plus **IF** he were also to hypothetically stay healthy most of his seasons (no guarantee, of course), that would be a pretty solid floor.  I know we all hope for more, but as a 2nd-rounder, that really wouldn't be too unfavorable of an outcome. 

But he's not MVS, of course.  Perhaps being a little better at a few things, and ~600-yards-with-injuries MVS could be incrementally better?  Block better?  Maybe coordinated enough to handle a jet sweep without falling down, so maybe an extra handful of productive touches that way?  Maybe a little more body control on contested catches, grab an extra handful of receptions that way?  Maybe a little more aptitude on boundary and back-shoulder throws?  Maybe a little better route-runner, so perhaps a few more slants and crossing routes?  Maybe a little more elusive and explosive on the receiver screens?  Maybe a little more fluid and more juky, with more stop-and-go capacity?  Maybe a little better adjustment to ball-in-flight on deep throws, and he draws an extra PI or two?  Maybe a little more instinctive in scramble-drill to make himself available?  

Maybe being "just a little bit better" in a variety of small ways can add up to being significantly more productive overall? 

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FWIW I'm like 99% sure I saw Doubs had the higher top MPH registered at the Senior Bowl. I think both were right around 21 MPH. Google isn't being cooperative though and can't find where I saw that. 

Edit: Found it. Doubs topped out at 21.25 MPH. Watson topped out at 20.71.

Edited by wgbeethree
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