Overall draft winners & losers

[.Buzz]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Seems like our last few picks hurt us with this.

I wanted more help for Lawrence than we came away with, but hard to complain much about landing Lloyd at 27 and Muma at 70. Both I thought were fantastic values.

Really loved what Baltimore did though. The Jets came away well too (which I expected given their draft capital, but good on them for taking advantage of it).

[MSURacerDT55]

The ravens fortifying their defense and doubling down on their running game might have been the smartest thing a team did all draft. 

[jebrick]

15 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I always think these value charts(post draft) are BS.  The draft sets the value.  Where the draftniks thought they were going is total crap.  In a year, no one will remember where the draftniks said Howell was going to drafted.  People will just remember where he was drafted.  it is up to Howell( and all players) to outplay/live up to his draft slot.

[incognito_man]

9 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I always think these value charts(post draft) are BS.  The draft sets the value.  Where the draftniks thought they were going is total crap.  In a year, no one will remember where the draftniks said Howell was going to drafted.  People will just remember where he was drafted.  it is up to Howell( and all players) to outplay/live up to his draft slot.

Still, it's FAR superior to an individual rank. 

Like the "guess the number of jelly beans in the jar" game: the average of every guess will be close. 

So looking at a consensus is a better look than an individual examination.

Edited May 2, 2022 by incognito_man

[SaveOurSonics]

The one that jumps out to me is the New York Jets. I thought they did a phenomenal job taking one of the best players at nearly all of their picks. Sauce was my #1 CB and gives them an immediate #1 guy. Wilson was probably my 2nd or 3rd ranked WR (definitively behind Jameson for me), but I think he's actually the safest of the entire group with the floor of a productive #2. I'm not a Jermaine Johnson fan but I won't complain about the value. Breece Hall is obviously a major addition for Zach Wilson and that offense. 

I'll be very surprised if any of Sauce, Wilson, and Breece outright "bust". 

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

 

I have some serious methodology questions here. Is each pick weighted the same? The majority of the "Best Value" picks are 6th and 7th rounders, which I suppose makes sense considering they have the furthest to fall from their projection. That said, the odds of a "great pick" in the 6th/7th round outperforming a "reach" in the 2nd round are still slim. 

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is how many NFL talents you added over those 3 days, and this doesn't effectively measure which teams simply made sound choices at their relative draft position. By this method, the Jets were likely negatively graded on their Sauce Gardner & Garrett Wilson selections, despite the fact that those are likely two of the safest prospects with great likelihood to make an impact in the NFL. It also just reflects the errant echo chamber that is "professional mock drafts" that all insist, for example, that Malik Willis is a 1st rounder despite a clear consensus among NFL minds that he wasn't. 

[incognito_man]

4 hours ago, jebrick said:

I always think these value charts(post draft) are BS.  The draft sets the value.  Where the draftniks thought they were going is total crap.  In a year, no one will remember where the draftniks said Howell was going to drafted.  People will just remember where he was drafted.  it is up to Howell( and all players) to outplay/live up to his draft slot.

Well, this is the thread for it. It's literally the consensus of what the point of this thread is: to compare pre-draft projections vs the actual result. That's what "grading the draft" comes down to: "How well did my personal expectations and results work out. Which team took the players I thought of most highly."

 

[Hunter2_1]

19 hours ago, jebrick said:

I always think these value charts(post draft) are BS.  The draft sets the value.  Where the draftniks thought they were going is total crap.  In a year, no one will remember where the draftniks said Howell was going to drafted.  People will just remember where he was drafted.  it is up to Howell( and all players) to outplay/live up to his draft slot.

They are BS. It's based on outside perception of value. If they could tell the actual value, they'd be in war rooms.

[Techbert]

17 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Well, this is the thread for it. It's literally the consensus of what the point of this thread is: to compare pre-draft projections vs the actual result. That's what "grading the draft" comes down to: "How well did my personal expectations and results work out. Which team took the players I thought of most highly."

 

Our expectations are based on the information available to us, as well as the skill of our analysis. We probably know about 10 or 20 percent of the flags on a player.

Techbert,
has never liked Hippa

[lark25]

Chiefs really did well. George Karlaftis at the back of the first was outstanding 

[VegasDan]

On 5/3/2022 at 5:22 AM, Hunter2_1 said:

They are BS. It's based on outside perception of value. If they could tell the actual value, they'd be in war rooms.

. . . says the person posting in a forum dedicated to speculation of player values and populated entirely of outsiders.

[Hunter2_1]

13 hours ago, VegasDan said:

. . . says the person posting in a forum dedicated to speculation of player values and populated entirely of outsiders.

[NYRaider]

On 5/2/2022 at 9:27 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

The one that jumps out to me is the New York Jets. I thought they did a phenomenal job taking one of the best players at nearly all of their picks. Sauce was my #1 CB and gives them an immediate #1 guy. Wilson was probably my 2nd or 3rd ranked WR (definitively behind Jameson for me), but I think he's actually the safest of the entire group with the floor of a productive #2. I'm not a Jermaine Johnson fan but I won't complain about the value. Breece Hall is obviously a major addition for Zach Wilson and that offense. 

I'll be very surprised if any of Sauce, Wilson, and Breece outright "bust". 

Yeah, I loved the Jets draft overall, outside of their top 4 picks I also liked what they did later in the draft. Ruckert projects as a future starter at TE, I think Mitchell will eventually be a starting OT, and Clemons has potential to be a solid player.

 

[onejayhawk]

On 5/2/2022 at 9:28 AM, jebrick said:

I always think these value charts(post draft) are BS.  The draft sets the value.  Where the draftniks thought they were going is total crap.  In a year, no one will remember where the draftniks said Howell was going to drafted.  People will just remember where he was drafted.  it is up to Howell( and all players) to outplay/live up to his draft slot.

Actually, the play sets the value, but that is unknown during the draft process. The question at hand is what is the best test statistic to approximate player value. 

What the draft does do is set the expected value which does not synch well with either the actual value or our test statistic.

Edited June 7, 2022 by onejayhawk

[jebrick]

2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Actually, the play sets the value, but that is unknown during the draft process. The question at hand is what is the best test statistic to approximate player value. 

What the draft does do is set the expected value which does not synch well with either the actual value or our test statistic.

But for any draft grade people are only looking at expected value since they have no value for at least a year if not more.