2018 Draftable QB Discussion

[Mind Character]

53 minutes ago, freakygeniuskid said:

So, this post has a good point and a bad point that someone could take out of it:

Good point - Stats can be tricky. Raw stats don't always paint a true picture. Gotta combine them with seeing someone for yourself.

Bap point - Don't pay attention to stats because they are tricky. #statsdontmatter

In these cases, Brennan was playing in a non-P5 conference right at the advent of newer spread systems when the few teams that were truly ahead of the curve were producing truly amazing statistical cases. Old man Weeden was, well, old. He was 6-7 years older than everyone else and a fully developed QB.  And he was a really good college QB, just didn't translate to the NFL due to his terrible pocket presence/poise.

I'm a trained statistician so I definitely don't believe stats don't matter, and I love using quantitative data to paint a picture.

You made my point with everything that you wrote after the "Bad point" sentence.

That is, everything you mentioned (Brennan non-P5, etc) was non-stat based context of their play. That's exactly why I used those examples.

The non-stat context for analysis extends from qualitative factors of age, personality all the way to things like the offensive line play and what's being asked of the QB on each play.

We're talking about Quarterback scouting whereby looking at the cumulative stats or analytics of a QBs play don't suffice as a best practice for selecting the best player.

When elite QB coaches scout a prospect, they don't look at the stats until after they watch the film.

Kyle Shanahan said it best when talking about the right way to QB scout and how he scouted CJ Beathard:

".... you all look at the numbers and try to form opinions about a guy good or bad..the numbers are something I very rarely look at or pay attention to until after.I just turn on the tape and watch it. Just because there's an incompletion or you don't get the touchdown doesn't mean it's the quarterbacks fault, you have to watch to see on a given play are people getting open, how the rhythm of their offense is, what the protection is...and the receivers....are they seperating for him, what are they asking him to do and is he doing that. How does he stay compact under pressure. Does his sightline drop from inside force?...does he freeze up under outside force?  You go through an entire game and ask does he do his job what else can he do and how does it translate to this level."

Ultimately, Baker's numbers tell a story of exceptional QB play...and traditional scouting of film suggests the numbers match his play.

it is a different question though regarding if that means that Baker is the best QB amongst a group of talented QBs.

To answer that question, only traditional scouting analysis can really do the job and provide the most critical insights for making the decision.

 

[FGK]

10 hours ago, Mind Character said:

You made my point with everything that you wrote after the "Bad point" sentence.

I know. I was trying to agree with you and just pointing out that people shouldn't make the bad conclusion, I figured you were aiming for the former.

[Mind Character]

Another interesting thing in QB evaluation is how much better can the QBs get, and how likely is it that the QBs will achieve that improvement?

I would give up a lot to hear the heated discussion amongst scouts in draft rooms debating Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold along that dimension as there are certain stark contrasting opinions amongs,the scouts.

However, the real debate would be amazing to see amonst Todd Haley, Hue Jackson, Ken Zampese, Dorsey, Highsmith, Berry, and Wolf.

Here's Ken Zampese talking about the right way to scout college QBs in the pros: "...going into separate silos forming an evaluation then coming together and having a knock down drag em out honest debate. Then watch them together with all eyes on deck and learn things you might've missed...things you might  be overlooking for one reason or another...things you have rose colored glasses for that you shouldn't. It's fun to argue about things you're firm on and build consensus. Marvin is a great leader in that regard, and Hue and I love that process and what it gives."

The QB debates in Berea are going to be fierce if not already, but it seems like the right group of people are involved where it can go the right way and no stone will go unturned.

My only fear is that the opinions and contention will be too strong that a rift develops should one party override the others. While the relationship was likely not too last for long, we do need some consensus and teamwork decision making to maximize this offseason.

It's simple and easy to rank the QBs based on who's better at Quarterbacking today...it's clearly 1. Josh Rosen, 2. Baker Mayfield, 3. Sam Darnold...

The real debate begins on who will be better 1, 2, 3, and 5 years from now.

Even better what are the scouts basing their arguments on.

Of note, Darnold's play style lends itself to be compared to Big Ben (Pocket Strength and ability to extend) and Aaron Rodgers (off platform accuracy both left and right movement downfield accuracy) while Baker Mayfield's play style and demeanor lend itself to Favre among the scouts (Fiery, gunslinger, multi-angle accurate and forceful thrower).

 

 

[AkronsWitness]

 

[Kathouse Sticks]

18 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

 

This. Just say NO to Josh Allen. Thanks for posting. Do you have Dorsey’s email so you can send these clips to him?  He needs to see them!  As Ron Shandler would say in his Baseball Forecaster: AVOID!

[Kathouse Sticks]

For me, and I’m not making the decision, it comes down to Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. Allen is not even in the discussion. As for Jackson?  I don’t know, but if he’s not one of the top three, why bother. 

I do not scout. I do not watch tape. I don’t even watch that much college football. So here is my uneducated, self-serving take. 

I have heard that Rosen is the most NFL ready QB right now. Maybe that is true, but he worries me that he coul be another Ryan Leaf. I think Darnold could possibly be the safest pick of the three, though not ready at all to even start a game in the NFL. Even Kirk Herbstreit said he should have stayed at USC another year. Mayfield isn’t perfect either, but man, does he look tantalizingly good. It just looks like he has that “it” factor that so many others don’t seem to have. So who should we take? 

It can be either Darnold or Mayfield and I think that we would be set. I really don’t want Rosen if he doesn’t want to be here. I think it would eventually play out and be a negative situation. No, thank you. However, if the front office conclude he’s the man, then so be it. I’m just a fan. If we draft Allen, we’ll never be good unless Kizer can become a serviceable starter, and we will have blown our golden opportunity. 

[bruceb]

17 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

Is it because you want Darnold who is by all measures a worse QB than Mayfield

All measures?

Thy overstates, methinks.

[bruceb]

5 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Of note, Darnold's play style lends itself to be compared to Big Ben (Pocket Strength and ability to extend) and Aaron Rodgers (off platform accuracy both left and right movement downfield accuracy) while Baker Mayfield's play style and demeanor lend itself to Favre among the scouts (Fiery, gunslinger, multi-angle accurate and forceful thrower).

Give me Big Ben and Rodgers-like over Farve-like all day long.

[AkronsWitness]

2 hours ago, bruceb said:

All measures?

Thy overstates, methinks.

Darnold has a lower completion percentage than Mayfield, lower QBR, lower TD/INT ratios, lower total yards, lower TDs, lower win percentage.

Not that Darnold is bad because for the Browns it's either him or Mayfield for me. No Allen and no Rosen. But I'm just trying to make a point when everybody tried to like Mayfield to Manziel that his actual ability as a QB is outstanding and often overlooked because people are too focused on his attitude and height.

Yay Darnold, seriously-- but Mayfield is still 1a to me where Darnold is 1b. Rosen is like 5th on my list and Allen is undraftable for me.

 

[AkronsWitness]

5 hours ago, Kathouse Sticks said:

For me, and I’m not making the decision, it comes down to Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. Allen is not even in the discussion. As for Jackson?  I don’t know, but if he’s not one of the top three, why bother. 

I do not scout. I do not watch tape. I don’t even watch that much college football. So here is my uneducated, self-serving take. 

I have heard that Rosen is the most NFL ready QB right now. Maybe that is true, but he worries me that he coul be another Ryan Leaf. I think Darnold could possibly be the safest pick of the three, though not ready at all to even start a game in the NFL. Even Kirk Herbstreit said he should have stayed at USC another year. Mayfield isn’t perfect either, but man, does he look tantalizingly good. It just looks like he has that “it” factor that so many others don’t seem to have. So who should we take? 

It can be either Darnold or Mayfield and I think that we would be set. I really don’t want Rosen if he doesn’t want to be here. I think it would eventually play out and be a negative situation. No, thank you. However, if the front office conclude he’s the man, then so be it. I’m just a fan. If we draft Allen, we’ll never be good unless Kizer can become a serviceable starter, and we will have blown our golden opportunity. 

Allen and Jackson are not even on my list of draftable players for the Browns. They are far too big of risks that a team like the Browns can't afford to take. They need the closest thing to a sure thing available and Jackson + Allen are nowhere close.

I honestly would remove both from my draft board if I were the Browns.

Mayfield is the best passer in this draft and Darnold has a tremendous ceiling and a MUCH higher floor than Allen/Jackson. Given all of the attitude and passion questions coupled with his desire to not want to play here, Rosen is also off the list.

This comes down to Darnold or Mayfield and my gut tells me the Browns are going to have a hard time passing on Darnold #1 of they bring in a stop gap veteran QB. Which is a great scenerio with minimal risk. Love it.

[bruceb]

52 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

This comes down to Darnold or Mayfield and my gut tells me the Browns are going to have a hard time passing on Darnold #1 of they bring in a stop gap veteran QB. Which is a great scenerio with minimal risk. Love it.

Best case, imho.

[Kathouse Sticks]

1 hour ago, AkronsWitness said:

Allen and Jackson...

Hey, what about Alan Jackson?  He may not be able to throw a 20 yard down and out, but he sure can sing. “Remember When” we had Bernie and were really good? And please don’t mention the “Drive”.  If we draft Baker, he’s just a “Little Bitty”.  Hue asked Kizer if he thought he could win the starting job, and Kizer said, “l’ll Try”.  That’s all you can ask. All I know is I want a quarterback that can give us some “Precious Memories”.  And if Alan can’t make the roster he can always sing the National Anthem at home games. All right. I’m out. Gotta go grab a Sam Adams cause “lt’s Five O’Clock Somewhere”.  Peace. 

[AkronsWitness]

56 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Best case, imho.

Right, something tells me AJ McCarron and Sam Darnold will be on the Browns roster next season.

My gut says they will pass on Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins and go lower level vet QB so they can justify putting Darnold in sooner as opposed to having a guy like Smith who is too good to bench at any point for a rookie.

[TheeRealDeal]

1 hour ago, Kathouse Sticks said:

Hey, what about Alan Jackson?  He may not be able to throw a 20 yard down and out, but he sure can sing. “Remember When” we had Bernie and were really good? And please don’t mention the “Drive”.  If we draft Baker, he’s just a “Little Bitty”.  Hue asked Kizer if he thought he could win the starting job, and Kizer said, “l’ll Try”.  That’s all you can ask. All I know is I want a quarterback that can give us some “Precious Memories”.  And if Alan can’t make the roster he can always sing the National Anthem at home games. All right. I’m out. Gotta go grab a Sam Adams cause “lt’s Five O’Clock Somewhere”.  Peace. 

Bravo, Bravo. Here I thought I was the only "Country Boy" on this forum. I took you all for city folk. Glad to see at least one poster has "Gone Country".

 

I'm finding it harder and harder to be proud of "Where I Come From". I have suffered "Summertime Blues", been though a "Tropical Depression" and almost drown being "Up to My Ears in Tears". I don't know why I keep coming back. I guess "It must be Love". It has been a "Long Hard Road" but I believe things are point up like a "Tall Tall Tree". As long as Jimmy Haslam finally realizes "If It Ain't One Thing(Its You) and he keeps out of the process I believe we'll find "The One *We're* Waiting On". "I Don't Even Know Your Name" but I believe this time you'll bring us out of the shadows. He may be a "Work In Progress" but that first game winning touchdown pass that is "Right On The Money" will have us "Living On Love". Yeah, "That'd Be Alright" but "Who Says We Can't Have It All"? A few game winners would be nice, but I see a Ring and a Lombadri trophy in out future.

[bruceb]

42 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said:

Right, something tells me AJ McCarron and Sam Darnold will be on the Browns roster next season.

My gut says they will pass on Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins and go lower level vet QB so they can justify putting Darnold in sooner as opposed to having a guy like Smith who is too good to bench at any point for a rookie.

This makes sense.