2018 Draftable QB Discussion

[TheeRealDeal]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to put Josh Rosen in the same class as Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.  Josh Rosen, for different reasons is in the same category as Josh Allen for me. Great tools that stand out head and shoulders above the rest, but major issues that will always hold back that said potential.

Josh Rosen

Worst QB in draft on 3rd & 1-6 with 52.2% 8-4 TD-INT ratio. Worst 1st down rate at 46.2%

2nd worst QB in draft on 3rd & 10+ 53.5% 2-4 TD-INT ratio. 2nd Worst 1st down rate at 25.2%

2nd worst QB in draft when trailing by less than 7. 60.2% 11-10 TD-INT rate

Worst Red Zone QB in the draft by a very wide margin. Worst TD rate at 21.9% and historically Top 5 bad 4.7% interception rate for a dreadful 17.2 difference between TD and INT percentage in red zone.

3rd worst QB in draft in 4th quarter/OT in draft. 59.4% with 18-8 TD/INT ratio.

If anyone has watched Elite 11 from 2014 you can clearly see he was by far the most resistant of the QBs to coaching. He clearly has a "I'm doing things my way" mental make up. Josh Rosen's faults go far beyond his comments about Cleveland and his perceived personality. I honestly don't think there is any truth to the teammates not liking him stuff and I could careless about him voicing his opinions about political matters(Seriously though if you have a problem with Rosen for that then you are probably a hypocrite because I doubt you would ever complain when LeBron does it and he does it more than any sport star I've ever known). None of those perceived faults bother me about him. It is his lack of acceptance to coaching and mentoring. He is without a doubt a very smart kid but with that intelligence he has become too trusting in himself to do or fix everything. IMO he will always struggle to trust coaching and teammates.

Josh Rosen is a toolsy 2nd round prospect IMO. 

[MSURacerDT55]

17 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I don't know why everyone is so quick to put Josh Rosen in the same class as Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.  Josh Rosen, for different reasons is in the same category as Josh Allen for me. Great tools that stand out head and shoulders above the rest, but major issues that will always hold back that said potential.

Josh Rosen

Worst QB in draft on 3rd & 1-6 with 52.2% 8-4 TD-INT ratio. Worst 1st down rate at 46.2%

2nd worst QB in draft on 3rd & 10+ 53.5% 2-4 TD-INT ratio. 2nd Worst 1st down rate at 25.2%

2nd worst QB in draft when trailing by less than 7. 60.2% 11-10 TD-INT rate

Worst Red Zone QB in the draft by a very wide margin. Worst TD rate at 21.9% and historically Top 5 bad 4.7% interception rate for a dreadful 17.2 difference between TD and INT percentage in red zone.

3rd worst QB in draft in 4th quarter/OT in draft. 59.4% with 18-8 TD/INT ratio.

If anyone has watched Elite 11 from 2014 you can clearly see he was by far the most resistant of the QBs to coaching. He clearly has a "I'm doing things my way" mental make up. Josh Rosen's faults go far beyond his comments about Cleveland and his perceived personality. I honestly don't think there is any truth to the teammates not liking him stuff and I could careless about him voicing his opinions about political matters(Seriously though if you have a problem with Rosen for that then you are probably a hypocrite because I doubt you would ever complain when LeBron does it and he does it more than any sport star I've ever known). None of those perceived faults bother me about him. It is his lack of acceptance to coaching and mentoring. He is without a doubt a very smart kid but with that intelligence he has become too trusting in himself to do or fix everything. IMO he will always struggle to trust coaching and teammates.

Josh Rosen is a toolsy 2nd round prospect IMO. 

Hey bro, all of those regurgitated stats are fine and sweet, that second half of the Texas A&M game sold me as well as the USC game. All of those stats and numbers sound like the last front office we had. Something has to be said about a guy who can put a team on his back and bring them back or play big in big games. I would pay less attention to numbers and look at the skillset he possesses and how he could fit into what we have. If you haven't already done so, go treat yourself and watch the Texas A&M second half.

[Bonanza23]

4 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So close, he almost hit it.

But dammit he looks like a stud even when he chucks it over the target, amirite? I mean, look at that arm...and his tallness.  Incredible.

Yeah but you were fooled by the visual evidence. According to my sources the ball came out of his hand with such superior velocity that it actually went through the target. Optical illusion. 

[TheeRealDeal]

@MSURacerDT55 So you are okay with Josh Allen #1 then?

[MSURacerDT55]

2 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

@MSURacerDT55 So you are okay with Josh Allen #1 then?

I don't remember mentioning Josh Allen

[Bonanza23]

12 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Hey bro, all of those regurgitated stats are fine and sweet, that second half of the Texas A&M game sold me as well as the USC game. All of those stats and numbers sound like the last front office we had. Something has to be said about a guy who can put a team on his back and bring them back or play big in big games. I would pay less attention to numbers and look at the skillset he possesses and how he could fit into what we have. If you haven't already done so, go treat yourself and watch the Texas A&M second half.

Yep. Yet another time where stats are great and all but they rarely tell the truth about a qb prospect. There are so many variables that stats can’t pick up on. If Darnold didn’t come out Rosen would clearly be my number one. In fact it’s kind of odd that on another site I read fairly regularly Rosen is the consensus number one whereas here it looks like Darnold. 

[Aztec Hammer]

Rosen is a top class prospect, strictly speaking in football terms. He's not perfect but I think he is an easy evaluation. Played with a poor surrounding cast (I've watched games where four straight perfect passes were dropped one after the other), got above >60% completion, he's accurate, has a great feel for ball placement and has experience in a pro style system. His flaws are that he is prone to bad decision making under pressure, locks onto reads sometimes, is inconsistent at navigating the pocket and sensing pressure at times, and has an extensive injury history.

I personally believe the bad decision making is partly a byproduct of feeling like he has to score on every drive. I also think more confidence in his OL would help him feel confident to go through his reads more (Darnold was also affected by this in 2017).

The reason I wouldn't take him 1 over Sam Darnold is because I have doubts over his fit in Cleveland on a personality and injury level. Also because I just prefer Darnold overall.

[TheeRealDeal]

Just now, MSURacerDT55 said:

I don't remember mentioning Josh Allen

No, you didn't. I was just using your own logic to connect dots. I mean clearly stats mean nothing and we should just "look at the skill set he possesses and see how it fits what we have".

Josh Allen has the size and frame "to take the AFC North beating" and ability to extend plays and the arm strength and zip "to drive the ball through AFC North swirling winds" I mean clearly his skill set fits best in the AFC North.

BTW those are not just raw stats. Those are specifically studied stats in big time situations when a QB is expected to perform at his best. Red Zone, trailing buy within striking distance to win, 3rd and manageable. He performed at his worst it the toughest of situations on a consistent basis. Sure he has some bright moments in some of those situations but overall he did not fair well. 

In the last 5 years the only QB to fair worse than Josh Rosen in the red zone is DeShone Kizer and those two were the worst two by a wide margin. I mean that kind of statistic doesn't just happen by accident.

[Aztec Hammer]

One thing I would agree with, is Darnold is a Redzone weapon.

He is an underrated athlete. The threat of the big, sneaky fast guy keeping it and plowing in always had the pop pass open.

[MSURacerDT55]

4 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

The reason I wouldn't take him 1 over Sam Darnold is because I have doubts over his fit in Cleveland on a personality and injury level. Also because I just prefer Darnold overall

We all need to take a second to realize how much of a luxury it is to even have a guy like Darnold/Rosen to talk about at the top who your preference is. Both are two top caliber guys and we have the #1 pick

[MSURacerDT55]

 

-The accuracy of every pass

-The footwork

-He was locked in, matrix style

-The anticipation

-Gamer

-Just think about us being down late in a game and we need a guy to be accurate under pressure and in a big game to drive us down for a score, he can do it. The talent is there, just needs to be refined.

[JoshBooty]

I think we all can see paths where Rosen/Darnold could become top 10 QB's in the league in several years. Forum seems split on where Mayfield falls, and I get that.  Hopefully, if we don't Cousins our way into a QB, this is as far as our list needs to go.  But if it kept going, I just don't understand how people could tout the upside without actual college accuracy of Allen and not bring up the incredible upside offered by Lamar Jackson.  Both have a smaller likelihood of realizing that upside than the other QB's, but as an OC, looking at the annual improvement of Lamar, his better college production, the way I could craft an offense to use him, and level of competition, I'd have Lamar over Josh Allen (hoping we don't have to rely on either to be my starting QB anytime soon).

[TheeRealDeal]

Josh Rosen has 2 career come from behind wins and you like to point out one of them which was against and awful defense. Congrats a blind squirrel found a nut. The kid has had multiple chances at come from behind wins and has more often than not failed. His only other come from behind win was as a freshman in 2015 trailing by 10 to BYU in the 4th quarter, however, they were trailing because of Rosen's 3 interceptions and when the coaches took the ball out of his hands and ran the ball with Paul Perkins UCLA was able to comeback for the win. 

How about previous year in OT loss to Texas A&M
Two 4th quarter INTs?

How about the 2nd half of Memphis?

Two second half INTs 1 in the 4th quarter trailing by 3 in the red zone

Second Half Stanford?
Two second half turnovers 1 fumble and 1 int that turned a 23-20 deficit into a 58-34 blow out loss?

Arizona State 2016
Tied game went 14-26 and INT in 2nd half

His only Bowl game in 2015
Up 21-7 he proceed to lead 3 drives to end in a punt and 1 Interception
Had a chance to tie late in the game but threw an INT with under 3 min to go.

When things get tough for Josh Rosen more often than not Rosen fails. I want a QB who overcomes adversity on a regular basis be it on 3rd down and manageable, 3rd and long, trailing late in the game, simply playing against better teams.

You can have your opinions but I wouldn't touch the guy in the Top 10 let alone #1 overall and there are numerous reasons besides his consistent inability to overcome the odds including too many injuries, uncoachability, and his lack of trust in others.

Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield are the only reasonable options.

[MWil23]

I remember when similar arguments were used bashing Goff for "not being a winner".

How's that turned out?

Sometimes guys play with sheer sucktitude all around them, and, surprisingly, can't do everything themselves. It will never cease to amaze me what we hold against these guys when it comes to winning/losing games when they play at mid tier programs (at best).

Sometimes, it's a HUGE factor because we see them succeed on the grandest of stages (Cam, Watson). However, usually it means nothing like when Peyton Manning 0-4 against Florida, Tom Brady was "beaten out" as a junior, Aaron Rodgers going to a JUCO school...the list goes on.

[TheeRealDeal]

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I remember when similar arguments were used bashing Goff for "not being a winner".

How's that turned out?

Sometimes guys play with sheer sucktitude all around them, and, surprisingly, can't do everything themselves. It will never cease to amaze me what we hold against these guys when it comes to winning/losing games when they play at mid tier programs (at best).

Sometimes, it's a HUGE factor because we see them succeed on the grandest of stages (Cam, Watson). However, usually it means nothing like when Peyton Manning 0-4 against Florida, Tom Brady was "beaten out" as a junior, Aaron Rodgers going to a JUCO school...the list goes on.

Jared Goff is nothing like Josh Rosen and Jared Goff actually crushed it in the same statistical study I am using. Goff and Rosen were polar opposites. Goff was great in the red zone and didn't make 2nd half mistakes to doom his team. He performed well when trailing by less than 7 points. Jared Goff was the anti Josh Rosen. Wins and Losses are raw stats. Sure Rosen and Goff had similar career in that sense but the difference is pretty obvious Goff was not a big factor in those loses while Rosen has been. If anything Goff carried a California team to more wins than they should have while Josh Rosen has led a UCLA team to the exact number of wins they were capable.