2018 Draftable QB Discussion

[FGK]

One thing I don't get, why is everyone just assuming that Darnold will learn how to read a defense? That's BY FAR his biggest weakness/concern and I don't think I've seen a single pro-Darnold poster seriously address it. Like, of the big three (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield) he's by far the furthest behind on defense reading ability, and that really showed in the OSU game where they baited him into two picks with very simple confusion creating techniques designed to frustrate the RPO. And it didn't seem like he got better at it as the year went along.

I know the mainstream draft folks are mostly Darnold, then Rosen, then Allen/Mayfield. But most of the smaller draftniks I follow are really concerned about Darnold's mental processing speed. While it would make sense for it to improve, you just can't know for sure. I think that's the biggest reason that, in a strictly Darnold/Rosen situation, I'd go Rosen right now. I think attitude/deep balls is less of a concern than major issues reading defenses.

Note: I still like Darnold a LOT as a prospect. I just think that if I'm ranking bust potential, he's a lot higher on the list than the general public thinks. 

[Mind Character]

2 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

One thing I don't get, why is everyone just assuming that Darnold will learn how to read a defense? That's BY FAR his biggest weakness/concern and I don't think I've seen a single pro-Darnold poster seriously address it. Like, of the big three (Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield) he's by far the furthest behind on defense reading ability, and that really showed in the OSU game where they baited him into two picks with very simple confusion creating techniques designed to frustrate the RPO. And it didn't seem like he got better at it as the year went along.

I know the mainstream draft folks are mostly Darnold, then Rosen, then Allen/Mayfield. But most of the smaller draftniks I follow are really concerned about Darnold's mental processing speed. While it would make sense for it to improve, you just can't know for sure. I think that's the biggest reason that, in a strictly Darnold/Rosen situation, I'd go Rosen right now. I think attitude/deep balls is less of a concern than major issues reading defenses.

Note: I still like Darnold a LOT as a prospect. I just think that if I'm ranking bust potential, he's a lot higher on the list than the general public thinks. 

You couldn't be more right in that the draftniks don't ever discuss aspects of QB mental processing and defensive identification.

This is the best topic to debate and discuss regarding the QBs (i.e., Processing of Defensive scheming) and is always actually 1 of the most important things in terms of a QBs success.

There's a lot to really dive into when it comes to quantifying what it means to "Read/process a defense quickly/efficiently, correctly, and with poise."

Most in the draftnik circle don't actually watch the QBs, and don't know Quarterbacking or what to pay attention to.

I think ultimately a lot of scouts are still going to side with Darnold because the RPO mis-ID against OSU doesn't really extrapolate and isn't really representative of how Darnold's INT's generally come about. The idea that Darnold doesn't have the mental processing chops and Baker and Rosen do...doesn't take into account what the QBs are asked to do in their respective offenses, how their offensive alignment and/or use of play action passing simplifies the pre and post snap passing picture.

There's video out there of all the interceptions thrown by the QBs. It's a misnomer to believe that Darnolds INTs are from mis-ID'ing defenses. More often than not, they are from trying to force a ball in to an impossible window, staring down a receiver, or trying to make a crazy late throw on the run. Occasionally, there are a few due to poor footwork.

More importantly, when considering how Rosen, Baker, and Darnold stack up in terms of the various dimensions of "processing" ability and prowess there's a lot to consider..........

 

A few things that bear mentioning when it comes to evaluating Baker, Sam, and Rosen and how they "process things":

1. How clear is their pre-snap picture, and how does it help them "read defenses" pre-snap and post-snap.

• Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma's base offense is primarily 4-Wide Spread followed by a 5-Wide Spread and 3-WR spread formation.. The benefits of this offense are to force the defense to show man to man looks and to spread the defense out thereby creating easier and more wide open passing lanes to throw through. The WRs then also have more room to catch an run.
• Baker comes to the line knowing where he has 1 on 1 match-ups and knows that if the defense is disguising a zone he has a safety valve via a typically free running TE or RB underneath.
• In this offense, it is almost always safe to throw deep on the boundary because the Safeties have to provide zone help BETWEEN the hashes in the middle of the field because there are so many threat to attack the defense deep middle or intermediate middle.
• When this offense has an inside spread WR run routes toward the sideline as in with an intermediate out, the Safety's have to commit...therefore, they are often late to get over the top of boundary receivers.
• To minimize these threats, the defense plays a safety deep middle which again makes deep boundary throws safe throws.
• The QB in this system can often catch and immediately release as they don't have to wait for anything to really come open. Worse comes to worse you just take a deep boundary shot quickly.
• Sam Darnold and USC operate primarily out of tight formations; that is, 3-receiver stacks tight; 3-WRs with 2 tight and 1 wide; followed by TE and WR tight bunch formation with 1 WR.
• This scheme narrows the passing lanes but has the benefit of causing confusion thereby allowing a receiver to leak out deep middle in or in the seam.
• This scheme also has the benefit of freeing up Receivers on out breaking timing routes as they have more room to work to the boundary horizontally
• The issue is that it is harder to ID 1 on 1s, and the QB has to wait for the things to develop or rely more on anticipation ability to make a easy read.
• This is the worst scheme ever if a team has Offensive line issues, this forces the QB to buy time for the long developing route concepts.
• The major benefit of this scheme is that it allows one to confuse the defense by moving the QB and the pocket one way via play design in a roll out or sprint out and running multi-directional route combinations another.
• It thrives on defensive role and assignment confusion and exploits issues in eye discipline and overaggressive of defenders.
• Doesn't give a lot of easy throws and QBs in this offense often have to buy time to make a big play.
• The USC offense also uses RPOs to simplify the passing picture for the QB.

2. Post-snap, how often is play-action used to simplify the pass picture?

• Play action passing, is used to force the defense to declare its responsibilities, open up passing lanes and widen passing windows, gets the defense to declare who's in man coverage and who's in zone, and allow WRs/TEs to separate.
• Baker Mayfield is in a heavy PA scheme that helps him overcome his height disadvantage by opening up passing lanes. The frequent PA mixed with the spread scheme offer a potent mixture for easier reading and progressions.
• Sam Darnold's offense is more RPO heavy which is not really play-action but requires pre and post snap cue reading to decide whether to hand the ball off or pull it and make a pinpoint throw away from the defender.

3. What is the nature of their Interceptions/incompletions, and how does it relate to errors in reading/processing defense?

• Not all INTs are the same. It's important to know whether an INT/incompletion results from a misunderstanding of defense, or in the case of INTs results from trying to make the perfect throw, resulting from a tipped pass, from QB inaccurate underthrow or overthrow, if it happens because of staring down the receiver, if the INT happens because of bad eye processing of where the play is developing, and/or if it happens because of poor footwork.
• Darnold's turnovers are mainly due to trying to make too much happen and forcing a throw in a tight window, as well as staring down a receiver followed by poor footwork.      

In the end, Josh Rosen is the best at processing the game followed by Lamar Jackson and then Baker and Darnold.

[FGK]

So I got into a twitter conversation with a few Cleveland specific draft people, because of Daniel Jeremiah going on Bull and Fox and saying Allen "had less short pass opportunities" and that's why his cmpl% is so bad (which I proved false a few weeks back by showing that he threw short MORE than Rosen or Mayfield by % and about the same amount as Rudolph). Some fun Allen notes that came out of it:

- Allen's game log confirmed my suspicion that it seems like Wyoming coaches lost confidence in him as the year progressed. He had 40 and 32 attempts in his first two games, never more than 28 the rest of season, and 20, 11, and 19 his last three games. They let him throw the ball less and less as the year went along.

- Against Iowa, Oregon, Colorado State, Hawaii, and Boise State combined (five of the more "legit" teams he played), Josh Allen managed two TDs and five INTs. We aren't even talking about this guy as a 2nd rounder without the pre-season media hype. He's Hackenburg with one less season for the shine to come off.

- For exact numbers: Allen threw 40 at or behind the LOS passes in 2017. Rosen for comparison threw 39. Rosen also threw 187 more overall passes. (Since when does a mid-major school with a supposedly top 5 talent at QB throw the ball only 255 times all year?)

- I checked, just vs. Rosen because I don't have all day. Number of times either QB threw the ball that many times in a game. 

Category:   Rosen  -  Allen

30 atps.          8       -     2
40 atps.          6       -     1
50 atps.          4       -     0

And as a side note. Allen's only 40 attempt game produced 174 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks because he was playing a real defense. His only other 30+ attempt game actually went really well... because it was against Gardner-Webb. A school with a total of about 4,000 students. Rosen on the other hand, in the games he was forced to throw the most from being down, had sixteen touchdowns to seven picks.

 

[Mind Character]

Another thing to consider with Allen @freakygeniuskid

Is that the attempts also are likely to go down due to inclement weather being prevalent where he plays in the mountain west.

I watched 4 games of his later in the year where it was either a complete snow storm or torrential down pour with high winds.

Not saying that's an excuse for why Allen should go 1 as he's my 4th best QB, but it should add some context to the numbers as well.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, Mind Character said:

Another thing to consider with Allen @freakygeniuskid

Is that the attempts also are likely to go down due to inclement weather being prevalent where he plays in the mountain west.

I watched 4 games of his later in the year where it was either a complete snow storm or torrential down pour with high winds.

Not saying that's an excuse for why Allen should go 1 as he's my 4th best QB, but it should add some context to the numbers as well.

If y’all have never been, Wyoming weather is no joke.

Solid point mind.

[FGK]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

If y’all have never been, Wyoming weather is no joke.

Solid point mind.

That is a good point. But the trend started after the September 9th game. Seems a little early, but that's true, it's at least an asterisk on the trend.

[Mind Character]

On 1/4/2018 at 9:47 PM, Mind Character said:

I want this documented in all the QB/Darnold threads so it's official

Daniel Jeremiah made the point on Rich Eisen's show about Dorsey, Green Bay, the small hands thing was important in GB, and Darnold fumbles a lot.

Dorsey is passing on Darnold because of small hands...you heard it here

Small-handgate will reach epic proportions

Never Forget....

 

[Mind Character]

Investigation Update: I will have accurate hand size measures no later than 4am tonight/this morning. Stay tuned.

Heading up to a few certain player's rooms in Mobile ASAP...

Rest assured I ALONE will be breaking this news first as a far superior investigative journalist than these draftnik hacks not willing to go the extra mile.

What's that you say...if the hand sizes will be measured by official people and reported on very soon anyway why am I going through all this trouble.

Simple:  The news won't report itself, and I won't let these so called top reporters (Shefter, Silver, Rappaport) disrespect this great sport anymore.

 

On 1/5/2018 at 11:42 AM, Mind Character said:

My fellow FFers...we can no longer let the scourge of Small-handgate 2018 divide us...

Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield have the biggest hands the draft has ever seen...sources say (Source: Sorority girls)

Sam Darnold fumbles a ton therefore has the smallest hands in the modern draft era sources say (Source: Dissatisfied sorority girl).

In GB, Dorsey and HighSmith learned the Ted Thompson rules that small hands are a disqualifier and I for one am beyond proud to announce the Browns have narrowed the 2018 1st overall pick down to two options.

1. Josh Allen

2. Baker Mayfield

Please Note:      I shall return soon with sourced reports of which of the two we shall select in the next month.

I'm going to find out first hand who has the biggest hands....I'm going undercover for what will be my toughest and most thorough investigative reporting..

Just know that I do this for you & the love of the game. Wish me luck!

 

 

 

I

 

[AkronsWitness]

27 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

Never Forget....

 

Honestly the guy that seems to be the least discussed of them all for some reason is probably the best passer in this whole draft. Rosen.

There are some serious issues with his Jay Cutler esq personality and apparent reports that Dorsey doesnt like him, but man if he had Darnolds persona he would be the runaway #1 overall pick. Hopefully the pre-draft process clears a lot of that stuff up and he somehow comes out and makes amends.

[Kiwibrown]

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2018/01/josh_allen_i_want_to_be_the_gu.html#incart_river_index


josh allen is doing some marketing. 

Its no wreck this league. But Afor effort. 

[Aztec Hammer]

8 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2018/01/josh_allen_i_want_to_be_the_gu.html#incart_river_index


josh allen is doing some marketing. 

Its no wreck this league. But Afor effort. 

Sorry I just posted this in the senior bowl thread because I didn't see this thread.

I feel like this board is getting a bit clunky when it comes to where to post about the QBs, but I'll stick to here from now on.

I think Elway is going to see shades of himself in Josh Allen at the senior bowl. I have to admit I'm sure it would be difficult not to fall in love with his tools after seeing them up close and in person (lol).

#5 overall to the Broncos is his floor imo. #1 overall to us is entirely plausible. 

56% career passer scares the living daylights out of me. That is almost a death knell right out of the gate. I wouldn't want to be the guy staking the #1 pick on that.

His combo of arm and legs is amazing though. 

Darnold is still my guy. His combo of arm and legs is awesome too, not as good but safer.

Rosen is pure, but I don't like his fit in Cleveland.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

17 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Sorry I just posted this in the senior bowl thread because I didn't see this thread.

I feel like this board is getting a bit clunky when it comes to where to post about the QBs, but I'll stick to here from now on.

I think Elway is going to see shades of himself in Josh Allen at the senior bowl. I have to admit I'm sure it would be difficult not to fall in love with his tools after seeing them up close and in person (lol).

#5 overall to the Broncos is his floor imo. #1 overall to us is entirely plausible. 

56% career passer scares the living daylights out of me. That is almost a death knell right out of the gate. I wouldn't want to be the guy staking the #1 pick on that.

His combo of arm and legs is amazing though. 

Darnold is still my guy. His combo of arm and legs is awesome too, not as good but safer.

Rosen is pure, but I don't like his fit in Cleveland.

I get the physical tools, but how about the actual film?

Ive seen his highlights and they are absolutely elite, best of the best type throws, but what did he do on the next play? Why were his numbers and his team so mediocre? 

At some point a prospect has to be more than the summation of his highlights, especially at this position. It’s not as if he’s a DE who just has to get to the qb once per game to be a pass rush god.

[Aztec Hammer]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I get the physical tools, but how about the actual film?

Ive seen his highlights and they are absolutely elite, best of the best type throws, but what did he do on the next play? Why were his numbers and his team so mediocre? 

At some point a prospect has to be more than the summation of his highlights, especially at this position. It’s not as if he’s a DE who just has to get to the qb once per game to be a pass rush god.

Agreed. It's a real issue. Played with a bad team, but also played against bad teams. You should still be a champ in that set of circumstances if you're as physically talented as him.

No good QB in the league was even close to his college completion percentage. It's a problem.

[dawgattack]

Our #1 selection card likely already has "Josh Allen" filled out on it. 

[Aztec Hammer]

I'm watching his Senior Bowl interview. He seems to have a good, confident and mature personality, only basing it off this limited interview.

He's an elite-tier piece of clay, that's for sure. Way more so than Kizer, who many wanted to make out was that.

I'm intrigued to some extent by his similarities to Aaron Rodgers in terms of wow arm talent and mobility to extend the play and throw off platform dimes, as well as the inland Northern California non-recruited back story where they had to go and play for a JUCO.

But then you put the stats up side by side, as well look beyond the wow highlights to the full game footage, and the comparison no longer holds up. Rodgers was supremely efficient and accurate. Allen is an inconsistent and not accurate enough piece of clay.