2018 Draftable QB Discussion

[bruceb]

3 minutes ago, cortes02 said:

So I'm running errands today and I'm at a stop light and the car in front of me has a sticker of the University of Wyoming Cowboy and all I can think of is what are the odds? Please dont let this be an omen.  Please Browns, just pick Darnold.

Peace!!!

Go to confession and ask the priest to absolve you and the Browns from this ominous perception.

[hsfolk]

I know Cleveland has to pick a franchise QB at some point, but I'm not convinced Darnold or Rosen are any better than what Browns could get in the early 2nd

[OttoGrahamsGhost]

4 minutes ago, hsfolk said:

I know Cleveland has to pick a franchise QB at some point, but I'm not convinced Darnold or Rosen are any better than what Browns could get in the early 2nd

They are better than the alternatives.  I think if last years prospects were in this years draft Darnold and Rosen would still be highly rated and you'd have to go back to Goff before you had anyone who was over them.  I would have had the top 5 in the passed three years something similar to (Based on college only):

1. Goff

2. Rosen

3. Darnold

4. Wentz

5. Trubisky

But I want Darnold on this team more than Rosen, even though I think Rosen is the better player right now. 

[hsfolk]

1 minute ago, OttoGrahamsGhost said:

They are better than the alternatives.  I think if last years prospects were in this years draft Darnold and Rosen would still be highly rated and you'd have to go back to Goff before you had anyone who was over them.  I would have had the top 5 in the passed three years something similar to (Based on college only):

1. Goff

2. Rosen

3. Darnold

4. Wentz

5. Trubisky

But I want Darnold on this team more than Rosen, even though I think Rosen is the better player right now. 

Rosen will pull an Eli as soon as he's drafted and demand to be traded to the Giants

[OttoGrahamsGhost]

Just now, hsfolk said:

Rosen will pull an Eli as soon as he's drafted and demand to be traded to the Giants

And I would be 100% ok with that.  I don't think Darnold is that far behind Rosen and I think Darnold can improve vastly.

[hsfolk]

Just now, OttoGrahamsGhost said:

And I would be 100% ok with that.  I don't think Darnold is that far behind Rosen and I think Darnold can improve vastly.

I just wary of USC QBs because they rarely work out and the most one can hope for from on is a Carson Palmer like career

[OttoGrahamsGhost]

Just now, hsfolk said:

I just wary of USC QBs because they rarely work out and the most one can hope for from on is a Carson Palmer like career

I might kill my dogs and one of my brothers if we were able to get a QB that gave us the skills and abilities that Carson Palmer had.  Although, Darnold has a different skill set, I think Darnold could DEVELOP into something better than Palmer.  He isn't there now.

[hsfolk]

1 minute ago, OttoGrahamsGhost said:

I might kill my dogs and one of my brothers if we were able to get a QB that gave us the skills and abilities that Carson Palmer had.  Although, Darnold has a different skill set, I think Darnold could DEVELOP into something better than Palmer.  He isn't there now.

but don't listen to me, because I never would've thought Jared Goff would've had a season like he did this year

[Aztec Hammer]

Listening to Trent Dilfer on the Rich Eisen show. I know it's Trent Dilfer... but he did coach both Sam and Josh at the Elite 11 as youngsters. So one might consider his opinion on the two of them is worth something.

On Sam Darnold:

- 'Special' kid that he believes will play in Super Bowl one day.

- Hates the overblown narrative about his interceptions.

- More concerned about the fumbling, because that tends to stick with QBs.

- Is capable of things that a lot of QBs aren't. And believes he will be able to learn the nuances of the position going forward.

- Compared him to Favre and Romo for his ability to make things happen both in and out the pocket.

- 32 out of 32 teams will love him. He has that quality to make everyone around him believe and feel good.

 

On Josh Rosen:

- Was a bit entitled and uncoachable when he had him at 17. Rosen didn't like him.

- Rosen returned to Elite 11 last year as a camp counsellor and was good as gold. Dilfer respected him massively for doing that.

- Expects a lot of anonymous scouts to roast him leading up to the draft because they will be intimidated by him.

- 16 teams will love him, 16 teams will be peed off by him.

- He will ask questions of coaches and expect greatness from them, because he is an intellectual.

- He is bristly but really that's not much different than Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers. A lot of QBs aren't necessarily good guys to be around because they expect so much of the people around them, but that is part of what makes them great.

[Kiwibrown]

thanks for the right up @Aztec Hammer

Rosen sounds like a smarter, better athlete version of Trent Dilfer. 


Im firmly in the Sam Darnold Camp. 

[Kiwibrown]

On 1/9/2018 at 10:52 AM, hsfolk said:

I just wary of USC QBs because they rarely work out and the most one can hope for from on is a Carson Palmer like career

i think we should draft prospects not schools though. 

all Mississippi Valley state WR's taken in the first round are hall of famers. 

[FGK]

On 1/8/2018 at 1:55 PM, hsfolk said:

but don't listen to me, because I never would've thought Jared Goff would've had a season like he did this year

I think we're just going to have to expect rookie QBs to stink for a year or two going forward. Some will violate that idea and be ready right away, but it seems like it just takes time to adjust to the NFL like it didn't necessarily in the distant past.

So I'm watching more film of my top 3 (Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold) and two things have popped out to me today.

1 - Mayfield's footwork is amazing. He is special in his ability to set his feet before the throw, even if he has to do it instantly. There is a throw against OSU where a guy opens up on a slant as he is holding the ball out for the play action, he sees it (because his eyes are ALWAYS up), instantly pulls it away from the RB and as he's pulling it away he sets his feet at a 3/4 angle (because he didn't have time to move to the typical 180 degree position), manages to get his lead foot pointed right and rotates his torso to get the whip on the ball to get it in, touchdown, and if he had been one second slower (getting his feet into a more traditional position for instance, or not seeing it because he looked down during the PA) the safety over the top picks it easy. His ability to get set in non-traditional positions (feet horizontal, chest pointed downfield) and still throw quickly and accurately is something nobody else in the class has.

2 - Rosen's deep ball. This is my biggest concern with him. The character stuff is horse #$%^ made up by scouts who are intimidated by a smart guy who is younger than them but not afraid to rock the boat and ask hard questions. But, that deep ball is not pretty right now and not overly accurate. The talking heads say that he "makes all the throws" but that's just not true right now, at least consistently, he really struggles with his accuracy on long balls and even some of his big plays there were lucky (the TD against A&M that literally went directly between a standing safety's hands.)

I'm still Mayfield-Rosen-Darnold, and still think all three have major, franchise, top 8 overall QB upside.

[FGK]

One more thing on Mayfield:

The height is a concern, he's fighting history.

The offense is a bit of a concern, you wonder how he'd do in Hue's beat up 30 year old Chevy after running in that Ferrari.

The character could be a concern, we just don't know enough to know.

But all the other concerns on him are bull.

The charge that he's working with a limited route tree is bupkus. I've watched a few games of his now and I've seen seam routes, I've seen screens, I've seen go routes down both sidelines, I've seen him archangel a throw into a FB over a LB and S that had leverage on the FB, I've seen deep curls, I've seen quick slants, I've seen 15 yard outs on the opposite hash, and I saw him throw a ball 63 yards in the air that hit a WR in stride with the CB on his back hip. I taught our JV WR's the route tree this year (stupid pop warner coaches) and he hit guys doing all nine routes.

The charge that he is a run first QB is ridiculous, 95% of his "wow" plays are in the air. Being able to move well is a benefit, not a hindrance, so long as you aren't dependent upon that running ability for your success and Mayfield is clearly not. 

The charge that his receivers are always wide open and that he doesn't throw into tight windows is silly. First, the goal is to throw to the most open receiver. Would you like it more if he was throwing it into triple coverage all the time like our parade of awful QBs the last twenty years? A lot of those open throws are because he reads the field so well and goes through snap progressions. A couple of them I saw were because he held the safety middle to throw a sideline shot or vice versa. Second, while his guys are open a LOT of the time, he threw it enough over four years there that there is a huge library of plays to look at just the ones where he had to throw a guy open or throw into a very small window, and he does really well on those.

The charge that he doesn't move through progressions is insane. I've seen numerous 3-4 read plays, and at least 40% or so of his throws are to the second read (which doesn't seem like a ton, but even guys like Brady throw to their first read a lot because they analyze the defense pre-snap, short snap to throw times are good and you don't get those by making 3-4 reads every single play). 

So yeah, he's short and played in a really good offense, and usually against bad defenses. But he demolished 3/4 of the good defenses he played this year and wasn't terrible against the 4th (Georgia) despite mitigating health factors.

I think this dude is Russel Wilson. If he was 6'4 we'd be talking about him as an Andrew Luck level player but in a non-pro style offense. I'm willing to roll the dice on his height not killing him. Especially since his tipped ball #'s are way better than a couple of the taller guys (Darnold, Allen) and he played behind (as many have pointed out) a very good, tall, athletic OL in college and clearly it didn't kill him there.

[Kiwibrown]

I like Darnold and Rosen ahead of mayfield because they are a lot younger. Two years is it?

in two years time both will be ahead physically and in play of baker. 

Age is an important consideration in the draft. Kizer was too young to come out in hindsight. It will be interesting to see where he is at in two years at Bakers age. 

[FGK]

37 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

I like Darnold and Rosen ahead of mayfield because they are a lot younger. Two years is it?

in two years time both will be ahead physically and in play of baker. 

Age is an important consideration in the draft. Kizer was too young to come out in hindsight. It will be interesting to see where he is at in two years at Bakers age. 

This makes sense, but also doesn't. In that, while it's something to think about, I don't think it's something to put huge weight on, not for QBs at least. Because you can't really guarantee continued progression. So, if Mayfield was 28 and Darnold/Rosen 20, that would be a huuuuge difference, for sure. But 23/21 isn't that big of a deal to me. If anything, I can tell moreso exactly what Baker will be than Rosen/Darnold just because I have so much more tape on him and evidence of progression and improving year to year. Whereas with Darnold for instance, the only evidence I have on him is that he got worse year one to year two. So while I suspect that will reverse itself, I can't be sure. Whereas with Mayfield I can look at his year over year growth and see that he works on getting better and fixing issues year to year.

So yeah, something to keep in mind, but far from a deciding factor for me.