Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2022 (All Up)

[Daniel]

46 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

By the way, definitely not low on the Chargers draft. I have about five teams locked as more or less completely equal, and they are just the first of those. 

I probably would have put the Chargers beneath the last two myself, and I love Zion Johnson.

 I just think the difference in quality between an elite guard that you spend a mid first on vs. a good guard you get in the late third is not big enough to justify that selection.

[onejayhawk]

37 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Surmising points from the last couple pages:

I think Watson or Olave will be the RoY, so i'm a Watson believer

I'd have the Chargers in the top half of my draft rankings for the Zion pick alone, and I like a couple other of their picks as well.

Strange was never going in rd 4.  I'd be willing to bet there was a chance he was top 50 regardless, NE was far from the only team high on him.  I think his absolute floor was early rd 3.

The Ravens may have a hole at WR, but their draft is still excellent.  There is also still WR talent available in FA, and it will come a lot cheaper than Hollywood.  I could see 3 of their rd 4 picks starting this year.

If you're going with a WR as ROY, consider the guy who lucked into Mahomes. Skyy Moore is a natural slot--Tyreek Hill's base position--and more NFL ready than most of the WR taken before him. 

This is about right for the Chargers. Indeed you can make an argument for moving them behind Green Bay who had the best day 3. The chargers have a solid but uninspiring 1st pick, no 2nd, and a good day #3. It's a good draft but, as GFW said, it didn't move the needle. We are past the teams with no capital and the ones that fumbled. The rest of the teams managed  real improvement to their rosters. 

Strange is a Belichick reach, for which he's famous, but not a mistake. As you say, he would never have last to round #4, the point is that he would not have lasted to round #3. IOL is much more highly drafted than a decade ago. So is DT for that matter.

The Ravens have the consensus best draft. PFF did a pick-vs-big-board value comparison for the first three rounds. Baltimore and KC are way out in front. The Chiefs get chipped for a trade up and that leaves the ravens supreme. 

[Daniel]

Treylon Burks ought to have good odds as ROY just because the Titans have no one else to throw to.

[biggie.]

7 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

7 rounds x 22 years = 154

154 x .30 = 46

you named 9. 

 

Do you honestly think Bill is a good drafter? I thought it was widely accepted that you guys won because his coaching prowess and Brady. Not because you could draft worth a damn.

What, do you want me to name every single remotely productive player BB has drafted? There's others (even ones like Malcolm Mitchell who showed promise before his knees betrayed him), but the point I'm making is that BB the GM is not nearly as bad as people here thinks he is.

Everyone said BB knocked it out of the park in 2021 and now everyone thinks he sucks even though this draft class hasn't even practiced yet.

Edited May 5, 2022 by biggie.

[Daniel]

Everyone except NE fans: Belichick is a bad drafter.

One diehard NE homer: Nuh uh, he's a good drafter and the draft doesn't matter anyway, but he must be a better drafter than all these teams that haven't made the playoffs.

[Matts4313]

15 minutes ago, biggie. said:

Everyone said BB knocked it out of the park in 2021 and now everyone thinks he sucks even though this draft class hasn't even practiced yet.

This maybe the disconnect. See, everyone has thought he has sucked at drafting for a long, long time. Which is why last years fluke was celebrated. 

No one is flip-floping. Its more like "even a blind squirrel can find a nut". 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Matts4313

[biggie.]

2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

This maybe the disconnect. See, everyone has thought he has sucked at drafting for a long, long time. Which is why last years fluke was celebrated. 

No one is flip-floping. Its more like "even a blind squirrel can find a nut". 

That's the draft in general: it is a crapshoot.

[Matts4313]

1 minute ago, biggie. said:

That's the draft in general: it is a crapshoot.

It has, and always will be, the best way to create a competitive team though. 

And thats why you get 7 picks. As you said, .300 batting %, you only gotta land 2 of them. Plus you get an extra ~20 tries in UDFA every year.

[NJerseypaint]

49 minutes ago, biggie. said:

...The Chargers haven't been to the playoffs in four years.

As for the Bengals, they've lomg been considered solid drafters but routinely choked in the playoffs. Once Mike Brown stopped running football operations and they stopped being the cheapest franchise in the league all of a sudden they found themselves in the SB. I'm not going to deny them drafting Burrow and Chase are big differences makers as well, but they were both top five picks.

Yeah, that's not the point here. Their drafts have made them contenders today, cumulatively. It's not always just 1 draft and sudden success, but adding talent early and cheap (AKA stars on rookie contracts) will eventually boil over into success. Take the Seahawks in 2012-2014. Loaded with talent thanks to the draft, but as soon as they had to start paying players - the window started to close. Chiefs are now in a similar situation where if the draft doesn't pan out, Mahommes might not be enough.

BB has gotten away with paying lower salaries to role players and made it work thanks to having a once in a lifetime player at the most important position. He is the exception, not the rule.

[BucsDraftGeek47]

17 hours ago, biggie. said:

I swear, the draft is the single most overrated and overblown part of the offseason.

i feel like these embody exactly how i feel about your comment sir

 

Also, pleasantly surprised that its up to 18 Bucs havent been rated yet , i would have assumed they would have been mentioned by now

[Matts4313]

6 minutes ago, BucsDraftGeek47 said:

17 hours ago, biggie. said:

I swear, the draft is the single most overrated and overblown part of the offseason.

i feel like these embody exactly how i feel about your comment sir

 

Also, pleasantly surprised that its up to 18 Bucs havent been rated yet , i would have assumed they would have been mentioned by now

The reality is - - if your team sucks at drafting, you downplay the value of drafting. So his opinion makes sense in his head. "We suck at it and won a bunch of superbowls". The problem is, he is about to get Will Smith slapped across the face with the fact that if you dont have Brady, you better draft well. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by Matts4313

[biggie.]

17 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

The reality is - - if your team sucks at drafting, you downplay the value of drafting. So his opinion makes sense in his head. "We suck at it and won a bunch of superbowls". The problem is, he is about to get Will Smith slapped across the face with the fact that if you dont have Brady, you better draft well. 

And who drafted Tom Brady?

[Matts4313]

Just now, biggie. said:

And who drafted Tom Brady?

Great. So you DO believe in the draft. Now go get another one.

 

(also, remember that blind squirrel/nut theory?)

Edited May 5, 2022 by Matts4313

[ET80]

1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Treylon Burks ought to have good odds as ROY just because the Titans have no one else to throw to.

But Derrick Henry is going to get like, 730 carries… a game.

That sorta cancels out who gonna catch them passes…

[Daniel]

Just now, ET80 said:

But Derrick Henry is going to get like, 730 carries… a game.

That sorta cancels out who gonna catch them passes…

This is very true, though Burks is one of the better blends of talent and having a good QB.

If I'm seriously speculating, it's probably Kenny Pickett if he starts early.  Rookie QBs don't need to do much to get ROY.

Christian Watson would be a good bet, since he's a pretty high pick with a good QB.  Skyy Moore too.

Wilson, Williams, Olave, Dotson, and London are all dealing with subpar QBs unless Zach Wilson blows up this year.  Breece Hall might be a dark horse if he quickly becomes NY's bell cow.

Give me 1. Pickett, 2. Watson, 3. Moore, 4. Burks, 5. Wilson.