big_palooka Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 I actually buy this. I touched on this last week that I think the QBs will fall differently than we expect. I think the media is way more into the QB hype than teams. Young is the cleanest, despite size and the rest all have major question marks. Stroud comes with questions on how coachable he is. Richardson is beyond raw and a massive developmental prospect. Levis is also raw and has more to unlearn than he has to learn coming out. I don't think teams want all the bust potential that comes with this group. Twitter, media group think has us believing they all go in the top of the draft, I don't see it. Way better talent in 2024's class and I think teams know that too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Just now, big_palooka said: At Caesar’s sportsbook, Levis is the favorite to go #2 +180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, big_palooka said: I personally have Seen Tyree Wilson odds go for +1000 to +275 as the 1st defensive player selected on bovada Wilson goes #2 or #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimkelly02 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, BayRaider said: ChatGPT would have out drafted Gruden. Bro…. It ain’t even that sophisticated…. A mock draft generator would have been multiples of times better. I, with no computer skills since the days of html code could write a computer program that would outperform that regime (and the last one). Edited April 18, 2023 by jimkelly02 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 12 hours ago, bucksavage1 said: Interesting news from Shefter… No QB at #2 or #3 My current suspicions are that Houston picks Anderson and Indy trades with Arizona to pick Stroud. I find it hard to believe that Arizona does not trade out if Stroud makes it to three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humble_Beast Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 (edited) how nice would it be for Levis to go 2 and Wilson at 3. Edited April 18, 2023 by Humble_Beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 hour ago, big_palooka said: Betting has nothing to do in predicting who gets drafted. They’re just trying to spread out the money so the casinos won’t get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Bitty 2.0 said: Betting has nothing to do in predicting who gets drafted. They’re just trying to spread out the money so the casinos won’t get hurt. That’s incorrect. The betting market tends to be the 1st to break news of where the players are headed. It’s based on information . Professional bettors will say the NFL draft is their most profitable event Edited April 18, 2023 by bucksavage1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said: Bro…. It ain’t even that sophisticated…. A mock draft generator would have been multiples of times better. I, with no computer skills since the days of html code could write a computer program that would outperform that regime (and the last one). You could throw darts at the draft list and do better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 Just now, bucksavage1 said: That’s incorrect. The betting market tends to be the 1st to break news of where the players are headed. It’s based on information . Professional bettors will say the NFL draft is their most profitable event Casinos manipulate the spread so that it’s evenly spread out over three or four people so they collect the vig. That’s how sport betting works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksavage1 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 32 minutes ago, Bitty 2.0 said: Casinos manipulate the spread so that it’s evenly spread out over three or four people so they collect the vig. That’s how sport betting works That’s not how betting the NFL draft works. Sportsbook move lines to protect the liability of their main client, the casino. The draft isn’t based on a random result like games, it is based on information. It is why Bryce Young odds have moved from +150 to -250 to -1500. They can’t play a game to randomly put odds out there to trick customers because it is information based. They’ll get hosed. Last season, sharp bettors (myself included) were betting up Travon Walker from +2000 until he reached -300 and above. It’s an information game. Sportsbook odds are probably the most valid information on where players will go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitty 2.0 Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, bucksavage1 said: That’s not how betting the NFL draft works. Sportsbook move lines to protect the liability of their main client, the casino. The draft isn’t based on a random result like games, it is based on information. It is why Bryce Young odds have moved from +150 to -250 to -1500. They can’t play a game to randomly put odds out there to trick customers because it is information based. They’ll get hosed. Last season, sharp bettors (myself included) were betting up Travon Walker from +2000 until he reached -300 and above. It’s an information game. Sportsbook odds are probably the most valid information on where players will go Why did the line move ? It’s to entice people to bet on other things. Information important to a better it’s not the same information is important to the casino. They care about the total amount bet on any single thing, if they have other bets to offset it and collect the vig. The casino always wins. Edited April 18, 2023 by Bitty 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raidr4life Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 1 hour ago, jimkelly02 said: Bro…. It ain’t even that sophisticated…. A mock draft generator would have been multiples of times better. I, with no computer skills since the days of html code could write a computer program that would outperform that regime (and the last one). Another reminder, Trent Brown, Antonio Brown, Lamarcus Joyner, Tyrell Williams. The Raiders got nothing but headaches with Antonio Brown, and wasted $85 million on Williams, Joyner and Trent Brown. Hmmm . . . $85 million. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, raidr4life said: Another reminder, Trent Brown, Antonio Brown, Lamarcus Joyner, Tyrell Williams. The Raiders got nothing but headaches with Antonio Brown, and wasted $85 million on Williams, Joyner and Trent Brown. Hmmm . . . $85 million. I remember thinking we were about to go off. Lol. Man...what a waste of a talent. Great RT before he came here, AB was top 3 at the position until he came here. L. Joyner turned out to be a product of A. Donald and that legit Rams defense. And T Williams went down after 4-5 games and never came back. Man...what a pipe dream that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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