**2023 NFL Draft Prospects**

[matt79511]

It feels like McDonald is this year’s Tyler Smith- guy who despite being ranked 40-ish on the consensus board, that they just have scoped out and are unapologetically higher on than everyone else is

We don’t know if Dallas would’ve taken Smith last year if Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson or Treylon Burks were available. This year, I think those three are Bijan, Wright and Mayer

[DaBoys]

1 hour ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Mayer’s athletic profile is solid. 7.65 RAS.

I was going to say… dude is like 6’5” 250 and ran a 4.70. Maybe not a FREAK but damn that’s a big boy to run a 4.70

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

42 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

It feels like McDonald is this year’s Tyler Smith- guy who despite being ranked 40-ish on the consensus board, that they just have scoped out and are unapologetically higher on than everyone else is

We don’t know if Dallas would’ve taken Smith last year if Kenyon Green, Zion Johnson or Treylon Burks were available. This year, I think those three are Bijan, Wright and Mayer

Based on the draft board Jerry flashed, we have a pretty good idea Tyler was their guy over those three all along.

McDonald has the feel of a much more true backup option, and tbh, I’m not convinced he’d be a backup option above Sanders or Avila. 

 

[Dallas94Ware]

7 hours ago, WizardHawk said:

Not something I’ve bought into during scouting process, but I guess I better start buying into Dallas taking a TE high. 

I'm not sold on them going into this draft thinking, man, we need to get a TE. Nor am I sold on them picking one if the board falls that way.

I just think that, given the short list of true first round players this year combined with the depth of that "second tier" of players they may like to have, and Dallas falling perfectly in the predicted zone for one of these tight ends, that the scenario of their favorite or second favorite tight end being available, is likely. And we know a big part of their recent first round success has been all about selecting that first or second best lower value position over the 5th or 6th best higher value position.

Then, mix in the fact the position is indeed considered a need (though I think Ferguson has a real chance of being a long term starter), and the finished recipe definitely looks and smells like a tight end to me.

Personally, I'm not high on the idea. But I'm all for simply adding the best player they can. If that's a corner, great. If that's a center, cool. If that's running back, alright. And if that's Darnell Washington like I'm predicting, well that's doubley cool cause I'll have been right 👍 but probably won't be.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

14 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

And if that's Darnell Washington like I'm predicting, well that's doubley cool cause I'll have been right 👍 but probably won't be.

Pretty sure you’re the guy at the YMCA pulling up from half court and yelling “Kobe”.

[Dallas94Ware]

18 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

I was going to say… dude is like 6’5” 250 and ran a 4.70. Maybe not a FREAK but damn that’s a big boy to run a 4.70

This is more forum wide comment than just to you, but it's the talk of mayer that has me commenting ..

Mayer is a good play, whether it's at 26, to Dallas, or well before like I think it will be. He is just a good all around athlete and a good all around football player. 

I think he and Kincaid are gone sooner than many folks think, however. This OL and pass rush crop, IMO and the opinion of a friend of mine who's career I'll just say has gone a lot further than mine did, is not as quality as guys like Kiper and Jeremiah and etc etc etc make it sound. They are high value positions, so many will go over drafted. But the actual quality isn't there as compared to recent years--which is the recipe for these lower value positions, such as running back and tight end and even safety, who actually are quality prospects but being projected low due to need & positional value, to actually be selected en masse much higher than you're seeing mocked around the league.

Which honestly, does tend to happen more often than we think anyway. Once you finish that 15 to 20 range, every year you end up starting to see someone mocked in round 2 or even 3 end up selected. And a small run on things like linebacker or defensive tackle where most folks pegged them for very late first to mid second, and a team or two shocking everyone by "overdrafting" some later round prospect st a very low value position.

 (such as Dallas picking Fredrick, a center, as the first best at his low valued position in a not so deep position class, over guys that "pro analysts" felt Dallas needed more - despite being the 4th, 5th or 6th best at their higher valued position, just simply because of their position)

Teams that typically draft well, particularly in the early rounds, pick their guys with trust in their scouts and their board. I know all the TV stuff, draft reads, mock drafts and stuff always peg players to teams solely on positional need and just link this player to this team based on need, with little thought as a whole to the better player...and after reading fifty mock drafts we all think we have an idea of what to expect. But that is so rarely the case. Baltimore under Newsome as GM has really been one of the best first round drafting teams in our era, and they constantly break the mold. Dallas over this last decade has done the same. Pittsburgh to an extent has as well. 

Maybe at this point I'm more trying to talk up my own predicting of Washington to Dallas at 26. But I really do feel these TEs are going to go early, and we will really see these next tier pass rushers and receivers and linemen slide.

Oh and I'm almost willing to bet my next check that Hooker goes round 1 for this same reason. 

 

[WizardHawk]

1 hour ago, DaBoys said:

2 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Mayer’s athletic profile is solid. 7.65 RAS.

I was going to say… dude is like 6’5” 250 and ran a 4.70. Maybe not a FREAK but damn that’s a big boy to run a 4.70

I undersold the athletic part. He’s a solid athlete no doubt, but unless I’m mistaken his RAS is on par with Ferguson. I just think you’re signing up for much the same type of player just 3 rds apart.

Edit: Ferguson’s RAS is 7.71, minus the bench press, which Mayer didn’t do. Ferguson’s bench was bad. 15 reps, 2.32 RAS score

Edited April 24, 2023 by WizardHawk

[Dallas94Ware]

6 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Pretty sure you’re the guy at the YMCA pulling up from half court and yelling “Kobe”.

That a long shot joke? 😂

Some years it's easy to peg what Dallas does. In 16 it was a lock to me they picked Zeke and Dak (dig it up if you don't believe me mocking Dak with the compensation selection!) Based on fit, depth, known scouting and visits, and what simply made sense to the team at the time. And sometimes it's even more blatantly obvious when 70% of this forum mocked them picking LVE (despite me mocking him as well, remember I said I wasn't a fan of the lack of true special skillsets and figured him for a hot and cold player, but not a bad pick all this considered). 

And then some years...man, it's so hard to link them to something. This is one of those years. They've been vigilant on receivers with visits, pro days, and the like. They've got no truly glaring need that would lead you to think they would favor one position higher than another if the talents are relatively equal. And there's so few true first round guys with Dallas sitting in the late first to know who will be "over drafted", and who will slide down the board into their laps...

I predict Washington because these TEs are very good this year. Dallas is in a good position to pick a top one, and should be out of range for their top receivers, linemen, rushers, runners and anything else they have been linked to via visits, scouting or the usual mocks. And third best (my secondbest, but to many, it's their third best) through the roof potential, athletic tight end sounds far more juicy of a steak to grill than 5th? 6th? Best something else. Especially when that 6th best may also indeed be at a position where they are third or even fourth on the depth chart to start the year, and likely be in a rotation throughout the season...where as a TE could likely start the season as a starter. 

I dunno dude. These equation is a long one, and I'm not exactly Albert Einstein. I'm just plugging in the variables and trying to make sense of it as logically as possible. But it's truly impossible to know this year. Too many variables in the equation to be sure.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

24 minutes ago, WizardHawk said:

I undersold the athletic part. He’s a solid athlete no doubt, but unless I’m mistaken his RAS is on par with Ferguson. I just think you’re signing up for much the same type of player just 3 rds apart.

Edit: Ferguson’s RAS is 7.71, minus the bench press, which Mayer didn’t do. Ferguson’s bench was bad. 15 reps, 2.32 RAS score

The question was whether Dallas has a first round grade on him, not whether you personally think he’s a wise investment in the first round. They do not grade based on existing roster factors.

Mayer’s RAS is right in the same range as Garrett Wilson and Charles Cross last year, both of whom were confirmed as first round grades for Dallas. So his athleticism is not an exception to the rule for Dallas, it’s definitely within range. 

Maybe he’s right at the top of 2nd round grades. That’s possible. But no serious interpretation of what we know now could lead to the belief that the Cowboys have a higher grade on Darnell Washington.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

28 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

That a long shot joke? 😂

It’s a joke that you are throwing up a prayer in hopes of looking like a baller.

 

29 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

I predict Washington because these TEs are very good this year. Dallas is in a good position to pick a top one, and should be out of range for their top receivers, linemen, rushers, runners and anything else they have been linked to via visits, scouting or the usual mocks. And third best (my secondbest, but to many, it's their third best) through the roof potential, athletic tight end sounds far more juicy of a steak to grill than 5th? 6th? Best something else. Especially when that 6th best may also indeed be at a position where they are third or even fourth on the depth chart to start the year, and likely be in a rotation throughout the season...where as a TE could likely start the season as a starter. 

I don’t disagree with this. TE could be the pick. But very little evidence that Washington is their guy, at least at #26.

[Tony7188]

8 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

Do I think Mayer will be a game-changing TE? Not really. Do I think he’ll be your locked-and-loaded, Pro Bowl level starter for a decade Yeah.

This would be fine.

If Mayer is a Pro Bowl level starter for a decade, isn't that game-changing?

[Tony7188]

In a dream scenario, Nolan Smith falls to us at 26. Him, Micah and Sam Williams would be nice for the future. I think the Cowboys are out on Kancey and Washington doesn't seem like a fit here either. I think they go with Forbes. 

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

12 minutes ago, Tony7188 said:

If Mayer is a Pro Bowl level starter for a decade, isn't that game-changing?

I guess it depends on how loosely you define game changer.

Being a Pro Bowl tight end means to be ~top 6-8 player at the position. I think that can be true without being a legit game-changer, especially at TE. 99% of TEs aren’t matchup nightmares that alter the defensive math, like Kelce and Kittle do. Most good TEs are guys who get their bread by blocking and finding soft spots in zones. Mayer could be at the top of that class of players. 

Nothing wrong with that, but you aren’t going to make a habit of saying “Wow, that was a dominant Michael Mayer performance”. You’re probably more likely to say “Wow, I didn’t realize Mayer had 8 catches for 114 yards”.

[plan9misfit]

1 hour ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

I guess it depends on how loosely you define game changer.

Being a Pro Bowl tight end means to be ~top 6-8 player at the position. I think that can be true without being a legit game-changer, especially at TE. 99% of TEs aren’t matchup nightmares that alter the defensive math, like Kelce and Kittle do. Most good TEs are guys who get their bread by blocking and finding soft spots in zones. Mayer could be at the top of that class of players. 

Nothing wrong with that, but you aren’t going to make a habit of saying “Wow, that was a dominant Michael Mayer performance”. You’re probably more likely to say “Wow, I didn’t realize Mayer had 8 catches for 114 yards”.

That’s basically how I see it. Mayer doesn’t strike me as a guy who is going to take a game over like Kelce and Kittle have done, or that Kincaid (if his back isn’t as bad as people think) or Washington are potentially capable of.

And, in all honesty, I don’t see many appreciable differences between Mayer and Sam LaPorta. If you swapped the teams they played on in college, I’d contend that LaPorta would be viewed more favorably and Mayer less favorably in this year’s draft.

[Nextyearfordaboyz]

4 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

And, in all honesty, I don’t see many appreciable differences between Mayer and Sam LaPorta. If you swapped the teams they played on in college, I’d contend that LaPorta would be viewed more favorably and Mayer less favorably in this year’s draft.

I don’t think I really agree with this. I do think Mayer is a much better player, but also, Iowa has been a TE factory - if anything, playing there is probably a boost.