Race for the #1 pick

[StLunatic88]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

Aaron Donald barely made the top 15 in his draft class, and he was twice the prospect coming out that Carter is, imo. There's a pretty reasonable argument to make that this draft class is much weaker on the top of pyramid.

This is some WILD revisionist history 

I was a rams fan at the time, he was no where near the regarded prospect Carter is. No one saw this coming from Donald. He was mostly listed outside the Top 10 on draft boards, even on Draft Day. And I don’t think a single person listed him in the Top 5. (Would have been a big deal, since we had the #2 pick also) Some even called him a reach. 

[AZBearsFan]

So much of what we do in round 1 is going to be predicated on our FA. If we sign Da’Ron Payne is Carter still our guy if he’s there? I’d be all for it, but maybe not. I’m bullish on Braxton Jones’ long term prospects but I certainly wouldn’t take any issue with OT Paris Johnson. I think Tyree Wilson is going to be a pretty consensus top 10 pick by April, and EDGE is far thinner a FA market than DT. 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

This is some WILD revisionist history 

I was a rams fan at the time, he was no where near the regarded prospect Carter is. No one saw this coming from Donald. He was mostly listed outside the Top 10 on draft boards, even on Draft Day. And I don’t think a single person listed him in the Top 5. (Would have been a big deal, since we had the #2 pick also) Some even called him a reach. 

Yeah  I remember seeing him in the talk as a 1st through 4th round prospect. Until his combine a lot had him as a rotational passrusher. Carter has been heralded as a top 10 pick for 2 years, even with the crazy talent GA has had rotating on that dline. 

Actually @Madmike90 was the one who finally made me a believer since I was scared he was more of an athlete than a baller. Went and rewatched him and finally he became my favorite prospect in the draft. My comp became a more yoked David Pollack (I was a massive fan of his so that was damn high praise).

[Epyon]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

This is some WILD revisionist history 

I was a rams fan at the time, he was no where near the regarded prospect Carter is. No one saw this coming from Donald. He was mostly listed outside the Top 10 on draft boards, even on Draft Day. And I don’t think a single person listed him in the Top 5. (Would have been a big deal, since we had the #2 pick also) Some even called him a reach. 

That's the point I was making. Donald was barely a top 15 prospect..... but if you had Donald (the prospect, not the future HoF player) and Carter in this draft class, you'd still pick Donald hands down.  Carter is a good prospect, and among the best of his class, but that says something about where this class stands up historically.

[StLunatic88]

5 hours ago, Epyon said:

That's the point I was making. Donald was barely a top 15 prospect..... but if you had Donald (the prospect, not the future HoF player) and Carter in this draft class, you'd still pick Donald hands down.  Carter is a good prospect, and among the best of his class, but that says something about where this class stands up historically.

What? By that logic the 2000 draft was the most stacked of all time because Tom Brady was pick 199

Aaron Donald has far surpassed any persons expectations of him before being drafted, likely even himself. That doesn’t mean literally anything for this upcoming draft. 

In general, the best players are drafted higher in the draft, yes there are plenty that are misses, and guys all throughout the draft have better careers than the Top 10, but those Top Picks are up there for obvious reasons. 

[Sugashane]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

So much of what we do in round 1 is going to be predicated on our FA. If we sign Da’Ron Payne is Carter still our guy if he’s there? I’d be all for it, but maybe not. I’m bullish on Braxton Jones’ long term prospects but I certainly wouldn’t take any issue with OT Paris Johnson. I think Tyree Wilson is going to be a pretty consensus top 10 pick by April, and EDGE is far thinner a FA market than DT. 

Like you said, it will be highly based on what Chicago's FA turns out to be. As much as BPA is touted as the simple manner, there is always current needs and roster to be taken into account. Then positional value and skillset. You let me have a guy who is a run stuffer like Ngata or passrush specialist like Geno Atkins and I will have to look at what is needed for the defense and who is in the building already. Neither is really the wrong answer, one is elite vs the run and one vs the pass. What is needed will adjust their grade. So even with Payne I wouldn't shy away from Carter. PHI has had Cox and Hargrave for how long? They've been owning DLs for years and making everything easier on the other 9. When Goldman gave a damn he and Hicks were a great duo made the game easier for everyone else.

I've been a proponent of doubling down in really strong class groups. The DL and EDGE looks great in this one and I wouldn't be shy about getting 2 of either or both spots. Get the best talents possible, patch holes with FAs, and let the coaches develop and figure out where to put people. Lets say we get both Payne and Onyemata in FA. Clearly the DT group is looking damn good but Carter is still someone I will not hesitate to pick up. One of the three just became a DE. I watched Chris Jones eat McGlinchey's lunch because he was just too damn powerful, there is no reason to me that he could dominate out there and someone as brutally strong but overall unathletic as McPhee could be a really good EDGE for us when healthy, but none of these three could play as a power end. For 3rd and long you can still rotate in your NASCAR package and with these three you can still rotate heavily to keep them fresh if you want to bring in young guys.

To me FA should be offense first, then focus on defense. Get Fields help ASAP. IF we come out with McGovern or Dillard as our top OL signing then to me Poles blew it. If Fields is going to be the a franchise QB he is going to get a boatload of money, Mack's deal is the biggest in franchise history and it will be peanuts compared to what he makes. Poles has seen how KC surrounded Mahomes with talent prior to his megadeal and knows damn well how much juggling will be needed to keep top talent. Take advantage of the minimal hit Fields is getting you with now and ensure he is the guy before you go out and risk a Russell Wilson albatross deal and poor play kicking you in the stones.

 

 

[AZBearsFan]

5 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

To me FA should be offense first, then focus on defense. Get Fields help ASAP. IF we come out with McGovern or Dillard as our top OL signing then to me Poles blew it. If Fields is going to be the a franchise QB he is going to get a boatload of money, Mack's deal is the biggest in franchise history and it will be peanuts compared to what he makes. Poles has seen how KC surrounded Mahomes with talent prior to his megadeal and knows damn well how much juggling will be needed to keep top talent. Take advantage of the minimal hit Fields is getting you with now and ensure he is the guy before you go out and risk a Russell Wilson albatross deal and poor play kicking you in the stones.

We could really hit FA either way heavy before the draft IMO. Looking at market scarcity as it compares to our current roster needs will likely dictate our plans at least somewhat though. Most specifically, I think we really need an alpha edge rusher, and there probably won’t be any in FA (I like Marcus Davenport a lot but he’s gonna be the top of the market guy and his production/health are both highly inconsistent). That doesn’t mean it has to be our 1st rounder, but I think it has to be a high end prospect who can be expected to make an immediate impact of some kind. Now, if you can load way up at DT as you suggest with Onyemata and Payne for instance, or one of those guys and Carter then you probably get more from the current DEs too, but fixing the defensive front 4 will need to be THE focus on that side of the ball. Everything else on defense is driven by that.

With that said, I LOVE the idea of investing highly in a quality RT then drafting Paris Johnson at LT in R1 too. I’m high on Braxton Jones’ future but there’s still a lot of projection in that. Johnson looks to be a STUD. 

[Sugashane]

22 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

We could really hit FA either way heavy before the draft IMO. Looking at market scarcity as it compares to our current roster needs will likely dictate our plans at least somewhat though. Most specifically, I think we really need an alpha edge rusher, and there probably won’t be any in FA (I like Marcus Davenport a lot but he’s gonna be the top of the market guy and his production/health are both highly inconsistent). That doesn’t mean it has to be our 1st rounder, but I think it has to be a high end prospect who can be expected to make an immediate impact of some kind. Now, if you can load way up at DT as you suggest with Onyemata and Payne for instance, or one of those guys and Carter then you probably get more from the current DEs too, but fixing the defensive front 4 will need to be THE focus on that side of the ball. Everything else on defense is driven by that.

With that said, I LOVE the idea of investing highly in a quality RT then drafting Paris Johnson at LT in R1 too. I’m high on Braxton Jones’ future but there’s still a lot of projection in that. Johnson looks to be a STUD. 

Totally down for that. Like I said I am willing to push Borom and Jones to IOL. Let one be the LG and one can train to be a C if we miss out on Pocic or a top C. There is a lot that goes into the change to C I'm sure but that is what an offseason is for. Williams has done really well in his switch to C so I see no reason why one of our guys couldn't. I think Borom fits better there in the phone booth than he does at RT honestly.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

I hate the idea of going DL or edge in round 1, just because I feel the needs on O align with having the dude at QB and if we screw that up it's going to make more of a difference than any blue chip D player would. If we BPA ourselves into Roquan 2.0 it's going to suck. 

That said,  the only excuse Poles has for not patching OL, DL, LB, WR in FA are to supposed weaknesses of those classes on the open market.  Zero reason he can't be content rolling into the draft happy to do BPA (but sticking to O unless there's an absolute guaranteed generational talent there, and I don't think there's anyone in this draft that does that)

[Bigbear72]

56 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I hate the idea of going DL or edge in round 1, just because I feel the needs on O align with having the dude at QB and if we screw that up it's going to make more of a difference than any blue chip D player would. If we BPA ourselves into Roquan 2.0 it's going to suck. 

That said,  the only excuse Poles has for not patching OL, DL, LB, WR in FA are to supposed weaknesses of those classes on the open market.  Zero reason he can't be content rolling into the draft happy to do BPA (but sticking to O unless there's an absolute guaranteed generational talent there, and I don't think there's anyone in this draft that does that)

As others have echoed, I believe that how we approach the 1st round should be predicated on how we approach FA. The beauty of having Fields in the fold is that I believe that the ability to play with someone as dynamic as him should have a positive influence on FA.

[Sugashane]

13 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

As others have echoed, I believe that how we approach the 1st round should be predicated on how we approach FA. The beauty of having Fields in the fold is that I believe that the ability to play with someone as dynamic as him should have a positive influence on FA.

Rodgers' steep decline should also help, and really how many people actually think Cousins is someone to consistently lead a division winner?

No one wants to consistently get their teeth kicked in and the NFL North hasn't been this up for grabs in what seems like forever.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, RunningVaccs said:

I hate the idea of going DL or edge in round 1, just because I feel the needs on O align with having the dude at QB and if we screw that up it's going to make more of a difference than any blue chip D player would. If we BPA ourselves into Roquan 2.0 it's going to suck. 

So much of that will be driven by where we end up picking. If we end up 3 or 4 and QBs presumably go 1-2 then the best players there by basically everyone’s rankings are Will Anderson and Jalen Carter, both of whom are elite DL prospects. You don’t force offense just to force it either. Add great talent. Marvin Harrison Jr. at 3/4 would be amazing but be isn’t in this draft class, and none of the offensive skill position guys in this class warrant a top 5 selection in this draft IMO, so unless you’re trading down you’re probably not going offense there unless it’s for a LT, and while I love Johnson from OSU I think 3/4 is a bit high for him. Now, if we end up in that 10-15 range then it’s much more open IMO. I think guys like JSN or Addison do have value there. 

[Bigbear72]

54 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

So much of that will be driven by where we end up picking. If we end up 3 or 4 and QBs presumably go 1-2 then the best players there by basically everyone’s rankings are Will Anderson and Jalen Carter, both of whom are elite DL prospects. You don’t force offense just to force it either. Add great talent. Marvin Harrison Jr. at 3/4 would be amazing but be isn’t in this draft class, and none of the offensive skill position guys in this class warrant a top 5 selection in this draft IMO, so unless you’re trading down you’re probably not going offense there unless it’s for a LT, and while I love Johnson from OSU I think 3/4 is a bit high for him. Now, if we end up in that 10-15 range then it’s much more open IMO. I think guys like JSN or Addison do have value there. 

A lot of people have Will Levis sneaking into the top 5 as well so that could possibly help if things shake out that way.

[Sugashane]

2 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

A lot of people have Will Levis sneaking into the top 5 as well so that could possibly help if things shake out that way.

I'd love for someone to want to jump up and grab him from us via trade. I want to work that into a mock but I know it is entirely to get the extra pick regardless of cheesiness.

[AZBearsFan]

25 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

A lot of people have Will Levis sneaking into the top 5 as well so that could possibly help if things shake out that way.

I’ve seen a ton of the hype on him, and I just don’t see it personally. Kentucky is far from loaded with NFL offensive talent around him, but I’ve watched him play 3 separate times this year expecting him to jump off the tape and he just… hasn’t. I get the same kinds of underwhelmed vibes watching him that I did watching Josh Rosen at UCLA (saw him a lot being a Pac-12 school alum). Levis will do well in the pre-draft process because he definitely has tools, but to invest that highly in him I’d need more than that.

Good news - it won’t be our team making that call. We got a guy already. 🍻