College Football Playoff Rankings

[MWil23]

5 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

12-1 with a division title is a lot better than 11-1 without one. Your issue should be if people think UT is an easy decision over the loser of UM-OSU. I don't follow top closely, but I don't think I've seen that. It honestly could have even been said earlier in this thread and I missed it.

I think the assumption here is if TCU loses and as well as if LSU runs the table.

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

I mean, can you say Michigan and TCU with 1 loss are clearly better than LSU? Because those are the only 2 teams currently in front of LSU that would need to lose. They're 6th right now. If they add a win over almost unanimous #1 Georgia, how do you vault someone over that?

Let me be clear, I'm just playing devil's advocate. I do not think LSU deserves to be a playoff team.

Probably.  We've had instances of two-loss champions being left out in favor of a one-loss non-champion (2017 with Ohio State over Penn State/Oklahoma, 2018 with Alabama over Ohio State/USC, and 2022 with Georgia over Baylor).  I don't see why this is any different than the Penn State/Ohio State situation.  To me, Tennessee has clearly proven they're better than LSU, so why would LSU winning the SEC Championship change that equation.  Not only does Tennessee only have one loss, but they have H2H over LSU.  So let's assume LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, do you believe that LSU is a better team than Georgia?  I personally don't.  Unless Georgia gets absolutely obliterated in the SEC Championship, I think Georgia is no matter what as long as they don't lose twice.  I think LSU needs both Tennessee AND TCU to lose to make the playoffs.

[beekay414]

LSU is also a completely different team on the road/at neutral sites.

Outside of the Tennessee stomping, they've won home games over Ole Miss and Alabama.

Neutral site (New Orleans)? 1 point loss to Florida State (7-3)

Road? 4 point win over Auburn (4-6), 10 point win over Florida (6-4), 3 point win over Arkansas (5-5)

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think LSU needs both Tennessee AND TCU to lose to make the playoffs.

And even in that scenario, I think that they also need USC to lose and maybe even Clemson. A 1 loss ACC team even likely gets in, fair or not.

[beekay414]

Just now, MWil23 said:

And even in that scenario, I think that they also need USC to lose and maybe even Clemson. A 1 loss ACC team even likely gets in, fair or not.

Unless it's UNC

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

Unless it's UNC

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

And even in that scenario, I think that they also need USC to lose and maybe even Clemson. A 1 loss ACC team even likely gets in, fair or not.

At this point, USC's playoff hopes are on life support.  I truly believe they needed Oregon and UCLA to not lose in order to get in.  If that would have happened, they probably would have snuck in as the 4th team.  But right now, the only path I see them having any chance is they win decisively against UCLA and Oregon plus they get their revenge win against Arizona in the Pac-12 championship.  UNC's SOS pretty much kills any chance of them making the playoffs.  Clemson is out on the fringe, and I don't think their SOS does them any favors either although it's not nearly as bad as UNC.  As long as TCU's loss doesn't come in the Big 12 championship, I'd venture to say that the committee would take TCU over Clemson.

[seminoles1]

33 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Probably.  We've had instances of two-loss champions being left out in favor of a one-loss non-champion (2017 with Ohio State over Penn State/Oklahoma, 2018 with Alabama over Ohio State/USC, and 2022 with Georgia over Baylor).  I don't see why this is any different than the Penn State/Ohio State situation.  To me, Tennessee has clearly proven they're better than LSU, so why would LSU winning the SEC Championship change that equation.  Not only does Tennessee only have one loss, but they have H2H over LSU.  So let's assume LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship, do you believe that LSU is a better team than Georgia?  I personally don't.  Unless Georgia gets absolutely obliterated in the SEC Championship, I think Georgia is no matter what as long as they don't lose twice.  I think LSU needs both Tennessee AND TCU to lose to make the playoffs.

I'm not arguing LSU over UGA or UT here, I'm arguing LSU over 1-loss teams from other conferences.

They're already ranked ahead of USC, Clemson, and UNC. A win over UGA for LSU, in my opinion, would be more impressive than any cumulative wins the rest of the season for those 3 teams. You could argue USC I guess, but I'd disagree. The committee will probably move USC over LSU next week though if they beat UCLA and will reaffirm it if they beat Notre Dame. But I think it'd be hard to argue beating UGA wouldn't/shouldn't vault LSU right back over them even with a win over whoever USC plays in the PAC-12 championship in this scenario. Clemson and UNC should have no shot IMO. They're already behind and can't make up the difference with the quality of opponents they have left.

Now we have TCU. If they win out, there's no debate. If they lose, I don't see an argument for them other than they played an easy schedule. I wouldn't put TCU over LSU, especially without a conference championship.

Finally, we have LSU vs. Michigan or OSU. I already pointed out earlier that Michigan's resume kinda sucks if they lose, but Ohio State would be more interesting. They at least would have 2 quality wins (if Notre Dame wins out).

So in the scenario of: LSU wins out (let's also say Alabama, Ole Miss, and FSU win out), TCU loses Big 12 title game, Ohio State beats Michigan, UNC wins out, and Notre Dame beats USC, who are your playoff teams? It'd be hard to argue against Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, and LSU.

Edited November 16, 2022 by seminoles1

[beekay414]

Here's what should be an automatically disqualifier IRT whether or not you belong in the dance...

If you get your *** kicked by 3 touchdowns on your home field, you're out.

[MWil23]

19 minutes ago, seminoles1 said:

I'm not arguing LSU over UGA or UT here, I'm arguing LSU over 1-loss teams from other conferences.

They're already ranked ahead of USC, Clemson, and UNC. A win over UGA for LSU, in my opinion, would be more impressive than any cumulative wins the rest of the season for those 3 teams. You could argue USC I guess, but I'd disagree. The committee will probably move USC over LSU next week though if they beat UCLA and will reaffirm it if they beat Notre Dame. But I think it'd be hard to argue beating UGA wouldn't/shouldn't vault LSU right back over them even with a win over whoever USC plays in the PAC-12 championship in this scenario. Clemson and UNC should have no shot IMO. They're already behind and can't make up the difference with the quality of opponents they have left.

Now we have TCU. If they win out, there's no debate. If they lose, I don't see an argument for them other than they played an easy schedule. I wouldn't put TCU over LSU, especially without a conference championship.

Finally, we have LSU vs. Michigan or OSU. I already pointed out earlier that Michigan's resume kinda sucks if they lose, but Ohio State would be more interesting. They at least would have 2 quality wins (if Notre Dame wins out).

So in the scenario of: LSU wins out (let's also say Alabama, Ole Miss, and FSU win out), TCU loses Big 12 title game, Ohio State beats Michigan, UNC wins out, and Notre Dame beats USC, who are your playoff teams? It'd be hard to argue against Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, and LSU.

TBH I think UM and OSU are both better than a 2 loss LSU unless OSU or UM is absolutely blown out. Then again, LSU was completely blown out and that's seemingly not a big deal. Sure, they'd have wins against UGA and Alabama, but beating Alabama is akin to a win against Penn State this year ironically. 

Serious question:

Who has Alabama beaten this year? Ole Miss is the ONLY ranked team they've beaten.

So, we are kind of using Alabama and their benefit of the doubt history to justify elite wins, when we can't necessarily say that this year. They're 2 plays away from being undefeated and they're about 2 plays away from bad losses to Texas and Texas A&M too.

[beekay414]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Who has Alabama beaten this year? Ole Miss is the ONLY ranked team they've beaten.

And Ole Miss's best win is 6-4 Kentucky by 3. 

Edited November 16, 2022 by beekay414

[beekay414]

I mean, this is all pretty irrelevant since UGA's gonna take LSU's lunch money in a few weeks.

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I mean, this is all pretty irrelevant since UGA's gonna take LSU's lunch money in a few weeks.

I want both OSU and UM to get in, as well as UT and UGA. So, that means we'll get to watch TCU get their doors blown off by Georgia, since the committee won't want/allow a 1 vs. 4 SEC vs. SEC to try to setup another ALL SEC championship game, so that'll be fun.

[beekay414]

In the end, we're gonna get Georgia-Michigan/Ohio State and Michigan/Ohio State-Tennessee in the playoff.

Ohio State-Michigan winner jumps to #1 after the game, loser drops to 6. Georgia jumps them back for #1 after beating LSU, Ohio State/Michigan loser jumps back to 5. TCU drops the Big 12 title game to Kansas State. Tennessee jumps to 4 after Ohio State/Michigan, thus securing their spot, then to 3 after TCU drops to K-State. USC drops to Notre Dame basically eliminating them. Michigan/Ohio State loser jumps back to #4 after TCU drops to K-State. 

Edited November 16, 2022 by beekay414

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

I want both OSU and UM to get in, as well as UT and UGA. So, that means we'll get to watch TCU get their doors blown off by Georgia, since the committee won't want/allow a 1 vs. 4 SEC vs. SEC to try to setup another ALL SEC championship game, so that'll be fun.

See my post above