MWil23 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, beekay414 said: In the end, we're gonna get Georgia-Michigan/Ohio State and Michigan/Ohio State-Tennessee in the playoff. Ohio State-Michigan winner jumps to #1 after the game, loser drops to 5. Georgia jumps them back for #1 after beating LSU. TCU drops the Big 12 title game to Kansas State. Tennessee jumps to 4 after Ohio State/Michigan, thus securing their spot, then to 3 after TCU drops to K-State. USC drops to Notre Dame basically eliminating them. Michigan/Ohio State loser jumps back to #4 after TCU drops to K-State. 2 minutes ago, MWil23 said: since the committee won't want/allow a 1 vs. 4 SEC vs. SEC to try to setup another ALL SEC championship game, so that'll be fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, beekay414 said: See my post above The borderline simultaneous submit parlayed with our memeing is comical right now, LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Rankings after Week 12 #1 Georgia (beats Kentucky) #2 Ohio State (beats Maryland) #3 Michigan (beats Illinois) #4 TCU (beats Baylor) #5 Tennessee (beats SCar) #6 USC (beats UCLA) #7 LSU (beats UAB) #8 Alabama (beats Austin Peay) Rankings after Week 13 #1 Ohio State (beats #3 Michigan) #2 Georgia (beats GT) #3 TCU (beats Iowa State) #4 Tennessee (beats Vandy) #5 LSU (beats aTm) #6 Michigan (loss at #2 Ohio State) #7 Alabama (beats Auburn) #8 Clemson (beats SCar) Dropped out: USC loss to Notre Dame Rankings after Conference Title Games #1 Georgia (beats #5 LSU) #2 Ohio State (beats Iowa) #3 Tennessee (idle) #4 Michigan (idle) #5 Alabama (idle) #6 Clemson (beats UNC) #7 TCU (loss to Kansas State) #8 LSU (loss to #2 Georgia) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 hours ago, NateDawg said: LSU ain’t that good, UGA’s gonna steal their pudding here in a few weeks anyways. What’s relevant here is Tennessee, the loser of OSU/UM, whether TCU can win out, and how USC is viewed if they do win out. Two spots for grabs under this scenario with UGA in and the UM/OSU winner in. I don't think LSU will win either but if they do, that's where the discussion needs to be had. Things will certainly get very interesting and I could see them getting put in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 hours ago, CWood21 said: It's not just the poor early loss to Florida State. It's the fact that they got clobbered by Tennessee. That's why I think there's 0% chance that LSU makes the playoff. Can you say definitively that LSU (even ignoring their loss to Florida State) is better than Tennessee? No. You hear the committee talking about their entire body of work, not just the last few weeks. I don't think LSU is better, no. Do I think the outcome of the game would be different now if they played and could they win? Sure. You are also right that they talk about the entire body but you also know that they put emphasis on how well they've played lately vs how well they played at the beginning of the season. LSU was in shambles to start the season. WRs getting all pissy, new QB learning a new system, new (terrible human being) coach, etc. It's unrealistic to think everything would be clicking right out of the box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: LSU beat Alabama in OT on a 2 PT conversion and Alabama squeaked by a subpar Texas squad with an injured backup quarterback. Is it really that elite of a win this year? We all agree that UGA is the best team right? Would it be an elite win against a team who struggled against Kent State at home and barely beat Mizz when losing in the 4th? I get where you're coming from but Bama is still a pretty damn good team even if they struggled on the road against Texas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 USC winning the PAC 12 at 1 loss should be in over Tennessee with 1 loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 hours ago, seminoles1 said: I'm not arguing LSU over UGA or UT here, I'm arguing LSU over 1-loss teams from other conferences. I'm not sure I see a scenario in which a one-loss conference champion is left out in favor of a two-loss LSU team even if it won the SEC Championship. To me, that leaves open a box that I don't think the committee wants to open. I mentioned that extreme scenario yesterday where a 6-6 conference champion wins over a top team, are they guaranteed a playoff spot? No. Tennessee's H2H win over LSU just looms way too large, and Georgia has been the best team throughout the entire season. Unless LSU absolutely clobbers Georgia (which they won't), I don't see the committee putting in 3 SEC teams. 22 hours ago, seminoles1 said: They're already ranked ahead of USC, Clemson, and UNC. A win over UGA for LSU, in my opinion, would be more impressive than any cumulative wins the rest of the season for those 3 teams. You could argue USC I guess, but I'd disagree. The committee will probably move USC over LSU next week though if they beat UCLA and will reaffirm it if they beat Notre Dame. But I think it'd be hard to argue beating UGA wouldn't/shouldn't vault LSU right back over them even with a win over whoever USC plays in the PAC-12 championship in this scenario. Clemson and UNC should have no shot IMO. They're already behind and can't make up the difference with the quality of opponents they have left. Again, USC can get some quality wins down the stretch. They're clearly the darkhorse in the playoff mix. They'll get quality wins against UCLA and Oregon, and tehy can get a chance to redeem their loss to Arizona where they lost on a 2P conversion on the road. The margin for error isn't very big, but they're right behind LSU with quality wins potentially coming down the stretch. LSU gets UAB and Texas A&M, which aren't quality wins before they get to see Georgia in the SEC championship. I absolutely expect USC to jump LSU if they beat UCLA. I think we both agree that UNC is unofficially eliminated. I think Clemson is close enough within striking distance, but I think they'd need quite a bit to go their way (including a USC, TCU, and LSU loss). I think the committee would take a one-loss Clemson over a two-loss Alabama in that scenario (Georgia is 1, Ohio State/Michigan is 2, Tennessee is 3, and Clemson is 4), with Michigan and TCU on the outside looking in. 22 hours ago, seminoles1 said: Now we have TCU. If they win out, there's no debate. If they lose, I don't see an argument for them other than they played an easy schedule. I wouldn't put TCU over LSU, especially without a conference championship. Looking at their SOS, it says they've played the 10th most difficult schedule. Putting aside the SEC and Big 10, which conference is playing the best football right now? To me, the ACC is clearly the worst of the bunch. I think they'd need a TON of help if they lost a game, but I don't think they're eliminated with a loss. 22 hours ago, seminoles1 said: Finally, we have LSU vs. Michigan or OSU. I already pointed out earlier that Michigan's resume kinda sucks if they lose, but Ohio State would be more interesting. They at least would have 2 quality wins (if Notre Dame wins out). Agree with Michigan's SOS. It's not that good, but they've also won decisively against everyone except Maryland. I think the score of the Ohio State/Michigan game would go a LONG way into determining whether or not the Big 10 gets 2 teams in. And you'd also have to look at what the other conferences put forward. I think you'd make an argument pretty easily that a one-loss Michigan is better than a one-loss Clemson. Can you do that for TCU or USC? I'm not sure. 23 hours ago, seminoles1 said: So in the scenario of: LSU wins out (let's also say Alabama, Ole Miss, and FSU win out), TCU loses Big 12 title game, Ohio State beats Michigan, UNC wins out, and Notre Dame beats USC, who are your playoff teams? It'd be hard to argue against Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, and LSU. I don't think that scenario is very likely. UNC is eliminated because of it's SOS. I think you'd have a real strong argument that TCU deserves to be in over LSU if we're looking at their entire resumes. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if they chose Michigan over LSU as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OkeyDoke21 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 What happens if the winner of the OSU/Mich game somehow gets knocked off in the B1G title game? Are they basically set, like Georgia? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, OkeyDoke21 said: What happens if the winner of the OSU/Mich game somehow gets knocked off in the B1G title game? Are they basically set, like Georgia? Yeah, I think you'd have a set field with those 2. They'd have the H2H win over OSU/UM and just a "bad loss". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, OkeyDoke21 said: What happens if the winner of the OSU/Mich game somehow gets knocked off in the B1G title game? Are they basically set, like Georgia? As long as they don't get blown out, you'd have to think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 If one of OSU/UM loses to the B1G West champ, the B1G doesn't deserve a playoff team 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Spoiler though, the Big Ten west is terrible, whoever wins the Ohio State/Michigan game is playing somebody like Purdue and could win by 35+. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, NateDawg said: Spoiler though, the Big Ten west is terrible, whoever wins the Ohio State/Michigan game is playing somebody like Purdue and could win by 35+. Unless it's us. We don't seem to like playing Purdue when we're ranked high and they're not even ranked..... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 So how's TCU doing this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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