Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[ThatJerkDave]

32 minutes ago, craig said:

 

1. If 4 of the picks ahead of us are QB's, the Packers should be able to get one of their top-11 non-QB prospects.  

I think it would also benefit the Packers if there was a little run on a position group.  So for example, we may not get a chance at the top 4 OTs, but we get our pick of WR or DT.  Rather than taking the left overs from each group.

[MacReady]

My favorite part of the draft is watching top ten WR/TE/IOL/QB/ILB selections.

I hope Love doesn’t suck because then next year’s draft there would be one less position group I enjoy seeing drafted ahead of the Packer selection.

[MacReady]

Need meets age meets positional value meets likelihood of being available meets possibility of our staff liking him factored in…

Lukas Van Ness is the guy I want at 13 or 15.

 

[TheEagle]

8 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

You’re not drafting him to block . 
 

This isn’t directed at just you, but what’s the obsession with prospects having to be good at everything? I get it’s preferred but sometimes the traits they have alone makes them dominant.

I didn’t say I’d draft him to block. I have him as TE #1, but I was responding to a post that said he’s a better blocker than people realize. He isn’t.

[Sandy]

3 hours ago, Kampfgeist said:

This is why I included an example of Gesicki.   Teams use positions in different ways.   A player can have success in one system and not be valued in another.   Is it possible MLF uses a TE differently?...Sure.   Is there any history of it during his time as an offensive coordinator or head coach?  Not yet.

Look - I think Kincaid is a good prospect.  No problems if we take him.   I don't think we will.   Assuming the small fracture in his back that has prevented him from working out heals well, I think he could develop into a really good TE.  I don't think his talents will be fully utilized in GB and if he's to reach his potential I think he's better off in a different system. 

This is no different than 1 team preferring a press-man corner and one preferring a zone.   Seattle was famous for taking certain types of corners.  Rasul Douglas was buried on a practice squad, but has excelled for us in our scheme.  Jaire is an All-Pro but would be wasted if he's only asked to play off-man like he would in certain schemes.

My comments aren't a criticism of him.   I know you've developed a mancrush on him so are sensitive to hear anything that might be perceived as negative.    

Based on draft history, Gute has tried very hard to add day-two pass-catching talent to the TE room. He wouldn't do this if MLF didn't value tight ends. 

I think the failures of TEs has been a combination of poor individual selections and Rodgers' unwillingness to use TEs as pass catchers between the 20s, and is less about MLF's offense.

[Kampfgeist]

1 minute ago, Sandy said:

Based on draft history, Gute has tried very hard to add day-two pass-catching talent to the TE room. He wouldn't do this if MLF didn't value tight ends. 

I think the failures of TEs has been a combination of poor individual selections and Rodgers' unwillingness to use TEs as pass catchers between the 20s, and is less about MLF's offense.

Point well taken - Sternberger is a good example

[DWhitehurst]

6 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

I think this is mute point anyway. No way is JSN there at 15 or even 13.

Minimum we would have to trade up with Philly at 10 to get over the Titans and Texans. That would for sure cost us our 3rd rounder and maybe even a little more than that.

So unless we cushty with trading up we ain't getting mo JSN

According to the Jimmy Johnson chart, it roughly  amounts to a 3rd and a 4th to move up to 10. That is very pricey. 

[packfanfb]

18 minutes ago, MacReady said:

Need meets age meets positional value meets likelihood of being available meets possibility of our staff liking him factored in…

Lukas Van Ness is the guy I want at 13 or 15.

 

Van Ness will likely be right there as one of the top 3-5 guys on GB's board assuming he doesn't go before 15. The only ding on LVN that could raise a concern with GB is his poor-average 31in vertical. Packers typically value a more explosive athlete for a player that high. (i.e. Gary - 38in). LVN also didn't have the best showing on the bench but with 34in arms, that's probably easier to dismiss. 

[Kepler]

5 hours ago, incognito_man said:

Christian Gonzalez is a magician at ankle tackles. He's a stud, too. 

He and Witherspoon are probably my #1 and #2 non-QB players in this draft, honestly. 

Witherspoon for sure. Him and jaire would have wrs putting on eyeliner just to ruin it with their tears. 

[vegas492]

30 minutes ago, TheEagle said:

I didn’t say I’d draft him to block. I have him as TE #1, but I was responding to a post that said he’s a better blocker than people realize. He isn’t.

I know the post you are talking about.  I chuckled to myself when I watched it.

Like...define blocking please.  Are we in-line blocking?  Because when he tries it, he's bad.  The only good thing I can about him in-line is that he is "kindda" willing.

Are we blocking on the outside?  I've seen a few cuts of that.  He's fine.  Not as devastating as he should be, but he's fine.  

But yah, overall, he's poor at blocking.  And he should be.  He should be out running routes.

[MrBobGray]

10 hours ago, vegas492 said:

How dare you, sir! 

But naw, he's an ideal fit for an offense who wants and needs someone to win quick and move chains.  He's large enough to play the boundary and ideal sized for the receiving slot role.

He's already an advanced route runner, his 3 cone is out of this world.  He will get off the line and he will get open quickly.  We really need that.

Watson and Doubs can get deep and also run intermediate stuff.  But when we gotta move chains, JSN is kindda perfect.

I feel like you are looking at him as more of a Lazard type role.  Big slot.  Blocker.  Offense is going to change now with Love here and Lazard in NY.  Odds are we can find a big boy to block in the slot in the draft.  But we really need that win quickly WR to compliment the other WR's.

Said it before, I'll say it again.  JSN is a very safe WR.  High floor.  His ceiling is nice, too.  QJ has a much lower floor, and much higher ceiling.  I'm not sure about Addison/Flowers/Hyatt.

Thing is I think LaFleur wants to run more big slot or even just straight 1-2 personnel.  Rodgers's best season with LaFleur they ran 55% 1-1 personnell, 24% 1-2 personnel, and 14% 2-1 personnel.  With a weaker receiving room in general, gotta figure they'd rather lean on the run game, and a guy like JSN doesn't really help you do that.

That being said I don't actually disagree with you here.  JSN's a fun watch because he's so precise in his movements and he does have a great sense of how to attack a DB.  I like him more each time I watch him, I just don't think the value is there in the 1st because for all he does well, I don't see a guy who can create big plays with any consistency.  Only scored 10 TDs in college, three of those in one game, and that's despite being a guy who seems like he should be an ideal red zone weapon.  He just doesn't threaten you with long speed at all, and even on big catches he's unlikely to break free for long TDs. 

To me, that's the biggest difference between him and Jefferson, who is clearly the comp the JSN camp is angling for.  Jefferson was a legit 4.43 guy who could separate on vertical routes with regularity.  He only played the slot because Chase is an eldritch horror made flesh with no known weaknesses and putting Jefferson inside ensures the safeties are always in the wrong spot.

[Mr. Fussnputz]

My gut is telling me we are taking a T at #15. Johnson, Jones, or that Tennessee guy. OTOH my gut is usually full of the usual stuff.

[NFLGURU]

6 hours ago, HokieHigh said:

As if a te in the first half of the first round isnt bad enough, that back fracture should drop his value

He'll also be 24 years old this year.  I like him just don't know if he fits in the MLF run oriented offense that's coming.

[thrILL!]

1 hour ago, MrBobGray said:

To me, that's the biggest difference between him and Jefferson, who is clearly the comp the JSN camp is angling for.  Jefferson was a legit 4.43 guy who could separate on vertical routes with regularity.  He only played the slot because Chase is an eldritch horror made flesh with no known weaknesses and putting Jefferson inside ensures the safeties are always in the wrong spot.

Part of the parallel with JJ is also how many fans around here undervalued him (including Chase being WR1).  Both WRs were surrounded by a ton of talent but it was clear to many of us that JJ was elite.  Many of us feel that JSN can be that as well.  

After all, it was only 2 seasons ago that JSN was supposedly better than Olave and Wilson.  We shall see.  I highly doubt he makes it to 15 anyway but who knows.   I’d take Watson, Doubs and JSN over any other WR trio in the NFC North and many teams beyond that. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by thrILL!

[beekay414]

JSN averaged 16 YPC in 2021. I'm not sure where this narrative is coming from that he's not a threat for chunk yardage.