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Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread


MacReady

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10 minutes ago, vegas492 said:
12 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

I knew it was over for me as an athlete in my early 40's.  I was playing a pickup touch football game at a work picnic, and face planted with nobody around me while trying to "run" a go route.

Mine was mid 30's.  Playing basketball at the gym.  Hit a 3 at the top of the key, backpedaled back on defense, tripped over the half court line.

Wrecked a hammy turning 3rd trying for an in-rhe-park dinger in co-ed work softball. Nothing about that decision was successful 

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24 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

Spending pick #13 on a player with huge red flags around not just his overall character, but also his work ethic and general desire to play the game is not something I want to do.

We know there MIGHT be something of concern about Darnell Wright. If he drops Thursday/Friday, we'll all understand why. But he very well might go top 15 if team(s) are comfortable with his interviews. Definitely one of those "if our staff felt ok keeping him in the board there, we should be really excited we got him" IMO

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7 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

Couple big assumptions in Ken's math here: (1) that Gary is going to have a $22m cap hit in 2024, where in reality, the Packers will probably structure it to be far less than that; and (2) that Love actually plays with a $20m hit for the 5th year option. Odds are an extension will be in place by then (assuming Love is decent in 2023), lowering his cap hit for 2024 dramatically. So that $42m or so he's factoring in will probably be more like $10m-$15m total for those two players in 2024. 

So one problem with that line of thinking is that Love's option has to be exercised within a few weeks. So GB would have no way of lowering that cap it with an extension, since it all becomes guaranteed at the time it's exercised. And we obviously aren't offering Love an extension (to lower that $20M) before he plays meaningful snaps.

But I do agree on Gary's number being a little too high. But I would be the Packers want to balance out that contract a little more instead of backloading it, now that the Packers have probably re-entered a normal cap spending situation.

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17 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

We know there MIGHT be something of concern about Darnell Wright. If he drops Thursday/Friday, we'll all understand why. But he very well might go top 15 if team(s) are comfortable with his interviews. Definitely one of those "if our staff felt ok keeping him in the board there, we should be really excited we got him" IMO

I guess it's true enough that anyone selected at #13 will have passed whatever red flag checks GB would have had on them. 

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2 hours ago, moretti19 said:

If Jalen Carter is sitting there at 13 what are your thoughts?

You get to your Pro Day  (the biggest f'in day in your football life concerning your future) you show up 9 pounds heavier and can't complete drills.  

Bill Parcells:  "If I have to motivate you, you won't be here long"

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I'm only just getting into EDGE rushers, it's sure a deep draft class isn't it? Can get a good one as far down as round 3.

At the moment three players have popped out for me.

Tuli Tuipulotu - really like this dude. If our West Coast/National scout, Sam Seale has any influence in the Packers draft room then he should be banging on the table for him. Quite young too and that's always something the Packers value highly in first round prospects. Now is 13 too high for him, probably, but I'm anticipating a trade down scenario to a later first round slot.

Myles Murphy - I just like his tape. He has the size that the Packers look for in EDGE rushers.

Isaiah Foskey - I thought he moved well for a big dude. I'm not sure what the knock on him is but I liked what I saw.

======================

I have a gut feeling the Packers will be going OT or EDGE with their first pick regardless if its a trade down or not. They're going to stick to their draft beliefs in certain positions so I expect TE and WR to be taken on day 2.

This leads me to the next gut feeling, the Packers are now all in with Jordan Love and they will do everything in their power to make sure he succeeds which is why I feel so strongly we will draft an OT to protect him and give him the platform to perform. No point finding him an elite WR if he has no time to throw and guess what there's no elite WRs in this draft. We drafted an elite WR last year anyway so that part of the equation has already been answered now the next part of the equation is OT.

This is why at 13 it has to be Paris Johnson. The fact he's the size the Packers require in their OL and that he played at right guard before moving to left tackle makes him an attractive prospect. The Packers likes versatile linemen and that versatility will allows Paris to start whilst Bakthiari mans the LT spot.

If he's gone by our pick we can always draft an EDGE or find a way to trade down and target the likes of Bergeron who I think will surprise as a 1st rounder.

Last night I did a 3 round mock draft on PFF and was able to land Paris Johnson, Tuli Tuipulotu, Tyler Kraft and Jonathan Mingo. I'm quite happy with that haul.

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9 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

You get to your Pro Day  (the biggest f'in day in your football life concerning your future) you show up 9 pounds heavier and can't complete drills.  

Bill Parcells:  "If I have to motivate you, you won't be here long"

Christ.  I was sitting the fence on the kid.  As in, sure, why not take him.

Then this post hit.  Drove the reality nail home.  He is a kid to avoid.

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6 minutes ago, Leader said:

 

This is not the draft where you want an incredible number of high picks to reap a bountiful harvest of talent.

That might be next year, but we're still dealing with the repercussions of NIL (where guys with eligibility left are not declaring early because the NIL money is good and college is fun.)

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33 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

So one problem with that line of thinking is that Love's option has to be exercised within a few weeks. So GB would have no way of lowering that cap it with an extension, since it all becomes guaranteed at the time it's exercised. And we obviously aren't offering Love an extension (to lower that $20M) before he plays meaningful snaps.

But I do agree on Gary's number being a little too high. But I would be the Packers want to balance out that contract a little more instead of backloading it, now that the Packers have probably re-entered a normal cap spending situation.

GB very well could/would convert Love's 5th year option (base salary) into a signing bonus and lower his 2024 cap hit.  This gets done quite often around the NFL

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7 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Christ.  I was sitting the fence on the kid.  As in, sure, why not take him.

Then this post hit.  Drove the reality nail home.  He is a kid to avoid.

It's not like the kid had a ton on his mind with all that was going on. His tape is unreal. They shouldn't have had him go to the combine. Horrific management call. He will not be at 13 so it's relevant. 

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17 minutes ago, Chili said:

Tuli Tuipulotu

Shame we don't have any numbers there. Heavy hands (and feet). Kinda think he's probably like a 4.9 guy which is why he opted not to test. Powerful, and showed a couple flashes of twitchiness and explosion. Extremely productive from a young age (which is a huge green flag). 

I could see how our staff would love him with one of those picks in the 40s.

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2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Shame we don't have any numbers there. Heavy hands (and feet). Kinda think he's probably like a 4.9 guy which is why he opted not to test. Powerful, and showed a couple flashes of twitchiness and explosion. Extremely productive from a young age (which is a huge green flag). 

I could see how our staff would love him with one of those picks in the 40s.

Interesting, he played around 280 and dropped to 260 for the combine. I liked the write up for him but he could be someone who lacks position in the NFL.

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