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What happened in Miami?


Manny/Patrick

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I don't know how MIA's demise can be described as "stunning" when they weren't even favored in 3 of the 5 games they've lost. 

Even when favored at home vs GB, it was only by 4, and we are all aware by now what happened with Tua in that game.  The other favored game was by 3 on a cross-country trip to San Diego that came one week after another cross-country trip to San Francisco.

I would call MIA's losing streaking surprising at worst.  To call it stunning is absurd.  To call it an all-time collapse is just silly.

 

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Too many injuries, too many mistakes.

We had a soft mid-season schedule and faltered when we played our hardest stretches of games. Completely sucked versus SF and SD, although I thought we played very well at Buffalo. Then came Tua's latest concussion when we had a leg up against Green Bay.

We never had a terribly deep roster, and thus were among the least prepared teams to deal with key starters going down.

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On 1/2/2023 at 1:22 PM, Deadpulse said:

They have the youngest rookie head coach of all time with a young team and a QB whose brain has seen more trauma than a rodeo clown's working double shifts. They are still a good team with a ton of upside, the experience just isn't there, yet. 

mcdaniel is 39, right? thats not even close to be the youngest.

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     People don't seem to appreciate how good Miami is:  8th in both DVOA and aggregate personnel rankings.  The improvement on the O-Line has been exceptional, even more so than the Chargers in 2021.  Aside from two soft drafts and Stephen Ross, the Dolphins had two problems this year:

1. Miami is not like Philadelphia or San Francisco.  As a "starblanket" team they rely on their studs, irrespective of some dark spaces between them--most notably at CB.  6 of their 8 wins were against running teams and 6 of their 8 losses were against elite QB-WR batteries.  Meanwhile, a nagging injury to a key cog (e.g. Tua) can be especially devastating.  They're not just shallow in terms of replacement depth;  they lack enough average players to cover all their bases.

2.  Strength of schedule.  Both the team in its entirety (i.e. Win/Loss record of adversaries) and the offense in particular (i.e. aggregate positional schedules) have faced the league's toughest opponents.

     2023 will be different, if only because the Patriots and Jets have far bigger issues in their passing attacks.

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7 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

     People don't seem to appreciate how good Miami is:  8th in both DVOA and aggregate personnel rankings.  The improvement on the O-Line has been exceptional, even more so than the Chargers in 2021.  Aside from two soft drafts and Stephen Ross, the Dolphins had two problems this year:

1. Miami is not like Philadelphia or San Francisco.  As a "starblanket" team they rely on their studs, irrespective of some dark spaces between them--most notably at CB.  6 of their 8 wins were against running teams and 6 of their 8 losses were against elite QB-WR batteries.  Meanwhile, a nagging injury to a key cog (e.g. Tua) can be especially devastating.  They're not just shallow in terms of replacement depth;  they lack enough average players to cover all their bases.

2.  Strength of schedule.  Both the team in its entirety (i.e. Win/Loss record of adversaries) and the offense in particular (i.e. aggregate positional schedules) have faced the league's toughest opponents.

     2023 will be different, if only because the Patriots and Jets have far bigger issues in their passing attacks.

I hope you're right.

The loss of draft capital will hurt us building depth, a virtual requirement for a real contender. Specifically, while you're right our OL was greatly improved, that was only true when our starters are out there (especially Armstead) - our backups are among the worst in the league (Greg Little started six whole games for us this season, as a guy who has no business even being on an NFL practice squad). Meanwhile, Tua has proven to many Dolphins fans he has the talent to be the guy... but probably not the durability. As much as I love the guy, I have serious doubts at this point he can stay healthy for a full season - he has been dealing with injuries hindering his development the entirety of his NFL career, and now has a scary concussion history on top of that. I don't think he's going to retire, but I do think the Dolphins may begin to consider taking precautionary steps at the position.

We also need to retool the defense, preferably by hiring an experienced DC. I was optimistic about keeping Boyer initially as I hoped it could  provide stability on the defense despite the head coaching change, but this season has convinced me that it was a mistake. Although our secondary has been absolutely devastated by injury (which I cannot blame coaching for), our talent at DL/edge is too strong to be failing to pressure opposing QBs with any sort of consistency... scheme and defensive playcalling has a lot to do with that.

As an aside, it definitely still irks me that we traded what we did for Chubb. I think he's a better player than some fans give him credit for, but we had (and still have) so many positions of need and Edge just wasn't one of them (despite the lack of productivity). For a scheme so dependent on the secondary, a veteran DB would've been a far better pickup, to say nothing about trying to pick up a decent OL to take Little off the field.

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All in all, exact age isn't what is entirely relevant. As a guy who is not only a first-year HC but also a first-time playcaller, I'm pretty happy with what he's accomplished in his first season, exceeding my initial expectations. The players bought in immediately to his coaching style, and he put together a dangerous offense (when it was actually healthy). He definitely has areas in which he needs to improve - he earned deserved criticism for his handling of the first Tua concussion situation, and has yet to prove he can get the team to win in the midst of adversity (or without Tua at all, for that matter). I'm also concerned that despite being known somewhat of a "running game and OL guru" when we hired him, our running game has been largely abandoned (even when its been successful) and our OL improvement was largely due to signing external free agents, with virtually no noticeable development for the guys we had on the roster (including two high draft picks, Austin Jackson and Liam Eichenberg, the latter I thought had the potential to excel in his ZBS). I'd like to see a more balanced offense in 2023.

I will say that his demeanor and aggressiveness is a breath of fresh air compared to the stubbornly by-the-book Brian Flores.

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35 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

actually, Zac is two months older (born May 10, 1983 as opposed to McDaniel who was born March 6, 1983).

O'Connell and McVay are the only HCs that are younger.

Last I checked, March happened earlier in the year than May.

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