Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 38 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said: Under. I think it goes under, unless he breaks a big one against man 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I don't know, but I always love seeing the NFC Championship logo in the on the presser wallpaper. Feels like reality setting it once you see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Fairly long article via Pro Football Outsiders. Written by one of their staff members Bryan Knowles, longtime 49ers fan. Quote The 49ers, on the other hand, have put up the best DVOA in the league since Christian McCaffrey came to town. Scratch that; they have actually been the top team in football since Week 2, coming out of the monsoon in Chicago to put up a 36.4% DVOA the rest of the way, with the No. 1 defense and No. 1 pass offense in football. Kyle Shanahan's men have been knocked down to their third quarterback of the season, and yet are still just one game away from returning to the Super Bowl after losing three years ago. They haven't lost a game since October 23, and they don't plan on starting now. It's the kind of heavyweight battle we live for—a matchup of strength against strength. Two deserving teams, but only one slot to put them in. There isn't an underdog here; these are the two favorites battling it out. Should be a good one. Quote Philadelphia has the top pass defense in the league, but a lot of that comes from the pass rush and the cornerback trio of James Bradberry, Darius Slay, and Avonte Maddox, who has returned to practice for the first time in a month. They match up better against more traditional offenses than they do San Francisco's parade of positionless pests. They rank 24th covering running backs and 22nd covering "other receivers"—they don't give up a ton in the way of yards, but on a per-play basis, they do struggle when asking people other than their top corners to cover. They also rank 23rd against passes thrown to the short middle of the field, and no one likes peppering the short middle of the field with running backs and tight ends more than Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Look for them to try to isolate guys like Kyzir White or Marcus Epps on Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel and strike at that soft underbelly. Philadelphia can at least rest comfortable knowing that they average a below-average 4.9 YAC, meaning they're well set up against San Francisco's fleet of receivers. The Eagles also struggled against 21 personnel this season, with a DVOA of just 13.1%, which would have ranked near the bottom of the league over a full season. The few good plays the Giants managed last week before the game became a blowout also came with two backs in the backfield. The 49ers, of course, love their 21 personnel—either traditionally, with Kyle Juszczyk at fullback, or by using Samuel as a wideback alongside McCaffrey or Elijah Mitchell. Only Miami used the formation more frequently, only Baltimore used it more efficiently, and no one had a higher success rate than the 49ers did with multiple backs on the field. In short, the 49ers' natural passing game plan matches up very well with the weakest parts of Philadelphia's defense. You get the feeling the Eagles would rather be facing Cincinnati's trio of elite receivers than San Francisco's matchup nightmares. A lot more in the article. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2023/why-eagles-are-brock-purdys-toughest-test-yet Edited January 28, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 hours ago, Forge said: I'm thinking between 50-60, but I think he may end up being the leading rusher in the game Not sure if it is due to the injury he is dealing with or just the way the Giants defended him, but in the last two games he has 18 carries for 47 yards. I think he probably has 40-50 yards but it won't be a huge rushing game. I'm more concerned on how we stop or limit Sanders and the rest of the backs. If we can limit the backs, then we can start doing some of the creative things up front that Ryans likes to do. All this talk of the Eagles edge rushers....and they are great, but Hargraves worries me the most. Our interior OL is the big weakness of this OL and he has a chance to really wreck this game. Would be great if we can force the Eagles to play Joseph/Suh more and take one of their top edge rushers out of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said: Not sure if it is due to the injury he is dealing with or just the way the Giants defended him, but in the last two games he has 18 carries for 47 yards. I think he probably has 40-50 yards but it won't be a huge rushing game. I'm more concerned on how we stop or limit Sanders and the rest of the backs. If we can limit the backs, then we can start doing some of the creative things up front that Ryans likes to do. All this talk of the Eagles edge rushers....and they are great, but Hargraves worries me the most. Our interior OL is the big weakness of this OL and he has a chance to really wreck this game. Would be great if we can force the Eagles to play Joseph/Suh more and take one of their top edge rushers out of the game. I think we might have to leave the creative stunts in the garage for this game. The DL just has to keep their gaps and play smart on every play. A zone read team has two chances to hit the open stunt gap on a play. The Eagles are pretty strait forward formation wise, so I don't think we'll see a lot of coverage rotation, defensive motions, and switches a lot. The Matchup to watch is Kelce against Greenlaw. When Kelcie pulls and acts as a lead blocker, green law needs to either stack him up and let the other guys make a play, or avoid him and shoot the gap. I think this matchup is key for them to operate their zone read runs. The Eagles system is not flashy or complicated, they mostly just keep defenses simple and honest with a lot of balance. Force the other teams to make individual plays, and limit mistakes. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinerNation21 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I don’t know if we will win this game, but the more I learn about Philly, the more I learn that we’re actually a pretty bad matchup for them. On defense, Philly doesn’t do well at stopping the run, stopping passes over the intermediate middle, and bottling up RBs and TEs in the passing game. That’s essentially most of our offense right there. On offense, Hurts is at his worst when dealing with pressure and facing cover 3. They also need the run game to roll to open up the deep shots. We pressure a ton and play cover 3 zone more often than not. if we can contain the run game and limit the deep bombs on defense and prevent the Eagles from racking up the sacks, I think we have an excellent shot at winning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said: On defense, Philly doesn’t do well at stopping the run, stopping passes over the intermediate middle, and bottling up RBs and TEs in the passing game. That’s essentially most of our offense right there. They are about middle of the pack in rushing defense dvoa since acquiring Joseph and Suh (15th, I think). They are also giving up 4.52 yards per carry during that time, but some of that is driven by Justin Fields (15 for 95) which counts, but also isn't a dimension that they really have to worry about here. Take out fields and they averaged 4.38 yards an attempt against in the regular season after acquiring Suh / Joseph. Also would have put them right in the middle of the pack. They are 11th in rushing defense EPA since this time. This is a pivotal part of the game that we have to win. It's not the liability that it was in the beginning of the season, but it's not a strength for that team either. It's a battle that can be and needs to be won. We have to keep negative plays to an absolute minimum. The Eagles defense will tee off on third down passing situations. They have by far the highest sack rate on third downs. They are fine against tight ends when you consider schedule and play script. They were 6th best in dvoa against tight ends (-12.9% which is actually far better than our performance against tight ends at -3.6%, 13th best), 5th best in touchdowns by tight ends and 14th in yards against, which I would wager comes against soft underneath zones, particularly late in games. The work in the middle of the field and against a third receiver is a big deal. They have struggled here...but they have been missing Maddox for half the season and he's a go for this game without any issues. I have no idea what that is going to mean...not sure if he's going to be in full time game shape or not, but he's a huge boost to them for this aspect. 2 hours ago, NinerNation21 said: On offense, Hurts is at his worst when dealing with pressure and facing cover 3. They also need the run game to roll to open up the deep shots. We pressure a ton and play cover 3 zone more often than not. if we can contain the run game and limit the deep bombs on defense and prevent the Eagles from racking up the sacks, I think we have an excellent shot at winning. There's going to be a lot of responsibility on the defense in this one for sure. Going to have to get a lot of pressure. The Eagles are best in the league on EPA per play in when base personnel and we are not a good base personnel defense as weird as that sounds (we are arguably the best nickel defense in the NFL on a 4-2-5 when you consider how weirdly good we are against the run in a light box). If we can't force the eagles out of base rushing personnel, it can be a problem. I think that Hurts' shoulder is still bothering him, so I'm hoping we won't be able to drive the ball downfield outside the seams, which is a weakness for this defense. I don't know what to do about hurts' legs. Its not just about him making back breaking rushes either. Per TruMedia (via Nate Tice), the 49ers have given up the most explosive plays in the league when the QB holds the ball for 3 seconds or longer. If the Eagles go with the pass script they had against the giants last week, that actually works in our favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Forge said: I don't know what to do about hurts' legs. Its not just about him making back breaking rushes either. Per TruMedia (via Nate Tice), the 49ers have given up the most explosive plays in the league when the QB holds the ball for 3 seconds or longer. If the Eagles go with the pass script they had against the giants last week, that actually works in our favor. Hopefully Hurts hurts, and the shoulder slows him down and keeps him from trying to rush too many times. I think Hurts is more of a reads and run type of guy rather than a dodge and throw player. With his running ability it's a sound strategy, especially with how good the eagles are on the O-line. Ability to win with 4 is important. Even against the zone, Hurts can make a lot of plays with his legs. This team has had some pretty good games containing kyler murray. The Eagles have the better resume, but it is not the average of the eagles against the average of the 49ers taking on one another in a statistical battle. These teams are who they are right now, which is different than their statistical mean. Both teams are really healthy, like really really healthy, which is cool. Hurts is the most notable injury on either team. The Eagles do not have the depth of this 49ers team, which could help the 49ers in the 4th quarter. I think each team will have limited possessions. Which team performs better in the red zone, and which team can close out the game late will be very important. I think the 49ers team has significantly more playoff experience than the Eagles, they play more cohesively than the Eagles, and they have the better coach. I like the 49ers targets against the Eagles pursuit, and I like Shanahan's ability to get kittle matched up against slay as a blocker, or Deebo on a backer in the passing game etc. The 49ers 21 personnel has four guys who can play all five positions, and Aiyuk, that's a headache for any defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49ersfan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Mason should be getting 2nd RB snaps, but Shanny might value Coleman's experience in this big of a stage Mitchell is so injury prone, such a shame 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) I don't love Coleman in the RB2 he's a bad version of CMC. I hope Mason is mixed in. Hard nose RB is needed don't feel like Coleman/CMC alone brings enough for us to be able to run successfully vs the Eagles. I forgot we had Deebo lol nvm we will be fine. My guess Deebo will be RB2 and Coleman will mix in to give CMC a breather. Edited January 28, 2023 by 49erurtaza 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
49erurtaza Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Would anyone be surprised if Deebo leads the team in rushing attempts tomorrow? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 32 minutes ago, 49erurtaza said: Would anyone be surprised if Deebo leads the team in rushing attempts tomorrow? I would be very concerned if that were the case. We really need CMC to do it all tomorrow, especially rush often and efficiently 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said: Would anyone be surprised if Deebo leads the team in rushing attempts tomorrow? yes, but if he lead the team in rushing yards or rushing TD's it wouldn't surprise me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 (edited) That would be funny if Bosa has a good game against the best OL in the NFL after back to back weeks being relatively held in check by rookie tackles. I was surprised that Jordan Mailata has apparently given up 6 sacks this year. Edited January 29, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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