Conference Championship Round: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

[J-ALL-DAY]

12 minutes ago, JIllg said:

I think some of (without empirical evidence to corraborate my intuation) that hit rate to sack conversion that is the coverage style you play behind it. Press man and truer cover 2 teams make it really hard to get to early answers and have release valves later in the play. We play a lot of cover 3, tampa 2, palms cover 4, and cover 6. Essentially all variants of deeper zone coverages with at least 3 dedicated deeper defenders to deter the long ball. Playing without man or 5 underneath defenders means that the offense has an easier time getting the ball out for small completions, but a very hard time getting deeper chunks without having one of their guys just beat someone (or having Huf get overeager). I definitely agree with a previous post that another major factor at turning pressures/hits to sacks is having a bunch of options that all regularly beat one on one blocks. The Eagles this year and in their Super Bowl year are a great example. Our 2019 defensive line is another. I do know that the empirical data shows that having multiple guys get pressures at once ups the sack percentage on those plays, which fits intuitively. It's just really hard to escape more than one guy winning at once. 

Absolutely, we encourage underneath throws as our backers usually clean it up and we are able to do so with the speed they play with. That's why opposing QBs always have high completion percentages while not having a great YPA. 

But still, Bosa getting THAT many hits and only converting on a third of those with sacks is baffling. That's some of the luck that comes with sacks but also shows he can have a season even better than this one in terms of sacks. 

[adamq]

Stole this from the NFL Gen thread... if/when we get pressure, Hurts is petty awful v zone. This is where the turnovers opportunies will be.

 

 

Interesting stat about Jalen Hurts from The Athletic Football Show:

Jalen Hurts vs the blitz with MAN behind it: best passer in football (epa)

Jalen Hurts vs blitz with ZONE behind it: 2nd worst passer in football (epa)

[GW21]

49 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here are the other teams in the top 5 in total sacks:

KC - 55 sacks/118 hits = 47%

DAL - 54 sacks/110 hits = 49%

NE - 54 sacks/93 hits = 58%

NO = 48 sacks/87 hits = 55%

So you know what, the Eagles sack to hit percentage is actually nothing crazy. The Pats had a higher percentage of that and the Saints were just below. I guess the Niners rate is remarkably low??? Like he probably should have had at least 4-5 more sacks. He got some really nice reps vs Dallas that did not result in a sack but he is due for one...or two this game. The question is, can someone like Armstead join him and put some heat on Hurts from the interior? 

I feel like Philadelphia also benefited from playing the Giants and Commanders twice. Maybe that's just optics, but I'm pretty sure those two teams were up there in the amount of sacks they gave up this year - also might have something to do with playing the iggles, who knows. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 minutes ago, adamq said:

Stole this from the NFL Gen thread... if/when we get pressure, Hurts is petty awful v zone. This is where the turnovers opportunies will be.

Interesting stat about Jalen Hurts from The Athletic Football Show:

Jalen Hurts vs the blitz with MAN behind it: best passer in football (epa)

Jalen Hurts vs blitz with ZONE behind it: 2nd worst passer in football (epa)

The thing is, with their run game, they are able to get a bunch of man coverage. The Eagles also has some filthy WRs that can win man coverage and win down the field. First and foremost, we have to slow the run game down and it is still to be determined how much Hurts will run with the injury he is dealing with. The last two games he has played (both against NYG), he has 18 carries for 47 yards. 

For some reason just because DK got some stuff on Ward, people are disrespecting and thinking #7 is garbage. He was pro bowl caliber all season and he's going to make it tough on Brown. I'm worried that if Brown gets a deep ball on him early in the game, he may be a bit conservative and play more off than he has to. So he needs to get off to good start and win a battle or two and stick with that aggressiveness all game long. In last year's match up, Ward allowed 2 catches on 3 targets for 18 yards against Brown. You can't really go off of that game as Brown was lining up all over the field and Ward didn't travel as much as he does now. Then the Lenoir vs Smith match up is going to be a big one. Lenoir has made two big plays in the postseason and has played well overall but he once again allowed a deep ball to Lamb. That can't happen this week as we need to make the Eagles earn everything and hold in the RZ. 

[adamq]

That deep shot will come early, too. They have opened up games with long balls multiple times this year 

[Rtnldave]

50 minutes ago, GW21 said:

I feel like Philadelphia also benefited from playing the Giants and Commanders twice. Maybe that's just optics, but I'm pretty sure those two teams were up there in the amount of sacks they gave up this year - also might have something to do with playing the iggles, who knows. 

They sacked Wentz 11 times in game 1.

[NinerNation21]

1 hour ago, GW21 said:

I feel like Philadelphia also benefited from playing the Giants and Commanders twice. Maybe that's just optics, but I'm pretty sure those two teams were up there in the amount of sacks they gave up this year - also might have something to do with playing the iggles, who knows. 

I think in general, the Eagles benefitted from a pretty favorable schedule all year. They avoided all the best teams and played teams before they got hot (Lions, Packers, and Jaguars). With that said, they crushed just about everyone, so they're definitely an elite team. But they haven't faced a team like the 49ers yet. I think the end-of-year Cowboys were the closest thing to the 49ers that they faced, but they did so without Hurts. 

It's going to be a heavyweight title match on Sunday and I can't wait.

 

[Forge]

2 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So the Eagles had 70 sacks while the Niners had 44 sacks...But in terms of QB hits? Eagles had 124 hits while the Niners had 121 hits. For the Eagles to have over 50% sack rate on QB hits is INSANE! And I'm wondering if they have one of the highest rates of sacks per QB hits in the history? That's a 58% sack rate per hit while ours is only 36%. We desperately need someone more explosive opposite of Bosa and that will increase our sack rate to at least the mid-40s, if not close to 50%. 

 

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here are the other teams in the top 5 in total sacks:

KC - 55 sacks/118 hits = 47%

DAL - 54 sacks/110 hits = 49%

NE - 54 sacks/93 hits = 58%

NO = 48 sacks/87 hits = 55%

So you know what, the Eagles sack to hit percentage is actually nothing crazy. The Pats had a higher percentage of that and the Saints were just below. I guess the Niners rate is remarkably low??? Like he probably should have had at least 4-5 more sacks. He got some really nice reps vs Dallas that did not result in a sack but he is due for one...or two this game. The question is, can someone like Armstead join him and put some heat on Hurts from the interior? 

 

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Absolutely, we encourage underneath throws as our backers usually clean it up and we are able to do so with the speed they play with. That's why opposing QBs always have high completion percentages while not having a great YPA. 

But still, Bosa getting THAT many hits and only converting on a third of those with sacks is baffling. That's some of the luck that comes with sacks but also shows he can have a season even better than this one in terms of sacks. 

Yeah, I would wager that some of this is based on the fact that we don't have a consistent rusher anywhere else on the line and have a certain type of pass rusher. We aren't really an overly explosive pass rush either. Very technical. Lots of power. But even Bosa isn't a freak athlete or anything. His average time to hit was 3.15 seconds. Myles Garrett, on the other hand, 2.8 seconds. That's a pretty substantial gap. Bosa led the league in QB hits and tied for the league lead in forced throw aways (with Chris Jones), so it's clear that he's winning his battles a crap ton but there's probably a missing piece for the purposes of bringing guys down for sacks. 

I've mentioned it before, but the defensive line has the second best pressure rate in the league with Bosa on the field, and the worst pressure rate in the league without him on the field. Beating one guy, even a guy like Bosa, and keeping him from getting the sack is a lot easier than beating 2. 

 

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

I think the 9ers use a lot of stunts and games along the line, which take time and lead to hits.  They also try to rush the passer through their assigned lane, so they are not giving up running lanes in exchange for sacks.  There is not much free lancing going on out there.  When the 9ers D-lineman is assigned a gap, they stick with it...it's just not always the gap in front of them.  At least that is my theory on low sack %.

The guys being bad without Bosa is pretty true this year.  It is amazing how much one guy can affect a unit.  Ekubam seems to be struggling, Armstead and Omenihu are both a little slower off the ball, but good at shedding or holding blocks.  Our quickest pressure guy used to be DJ Jones, in spite of his shape, that dude used to get a quick direct path to the QB pretty consistently.  We don't have that Dee Ford type that can play wide opposite Bosa and really stack the line.  

As long as Nick Bosa is healthy for the next two games, I won't have to worry about how good the guys are without Bosa.  He's a top defensive player in the league, maybe the best.  Of course his presence in the game matters.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420

[J-ALL-DAY]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

 

 

Yeah, I would wager that some of this is based on the fact that we don't have a consistent rusher anywhere else on the line and have a certain type of pass rusher. We aren't really an overly explosive pass rush either. Very technical. Lots of power. But even Bosa isn't a freak athlete or anything. His average time to hit was 3.15 seconds. Myles Garrett, on the other hand, 2.8 seconds. That's a pretty substantial gap. Bosa led the league in QB hits and tied for the league lead in forced throw aways (with Chris Jones), so it's clear that he's winning his battles a crap ton but there's probably a missing piece for the purposes of bringing guys down for sacks. 

I've mentioned it before, but the defensive line has the second best pressure rate in the league with Bosa on the field, and the worst pressure rate in the league without him on the field. Beating one guy, even a guy like Bosa, and keeping him from getting the sack is a lot easier than beating 2. 

 

 

Definitely, we had Ford opposite of Bosa during the 2019 playoff run and last year we had some really talented interior pass rushers that helped Bosa in the playoffs. Right now it is mainly on him to make a play. Jackson can be THAT guy but he needs to work on his technique and work on having counters as a pure speed rush or spin move is not going to always work. 

But even if we do get someone explosive opposite of Bosa, our scheme is always going to lead to quick throws by opposing QBs or easy throws that hurt the chances of the DL getting a sack.

Every time Bosa is on the sidelines, you just know opposing coaches light up and they always draw up some deep shots LOL. Like clockwork. Bosa was on the field far more against the Cowboys than he usually is so I don't expect him on the sidelines all that much this week either. Though it will be a different type of game and the Eagles will run the crap out of the ball with all those read options. Bosa has led to opposing mobile QBs having success due to him crashing so hard on backs and losing contain. Hopefully he cleans that up on Sunday. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

I think this is pretty big. Not that I expect CMC/Mitchell to miss the game, but the fact they aren't even limited today means they likely won't be close to 100% and compromised. This is a game where the run game needs to be more consistent than it was against the Cowboys. 

More Deebo carries? 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I think this is pretty big. Not that I expect CMC/Mitchell to miss the game, but the fact they aren't even limited today means they likely won't be close to 100% and compromised. This is a game where the run game needs to be more consistent than it was against the Cowboys. 

More Deebo carries? 

McC will be back to 100%. Nothing to gain practicing with a bruise, but he has a lot to lose favoring one leg or the other.  

Hopefully Mitchell's strain gets better, but rest is better than not-rest.  Mason is a strong back up option as well.

[Forge]

1 hour ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

I think this is pretty big. Not that I expect CMC/Mitchell to miss the game, but the fact they aren't even limited today means they likely won't be close to 100% and compromised. This is a game where the run game needs to be more consistent than it was against the Cowboys. 

More Deebo carries? 

He said he won't miss the game, but obviously could impact the carries  and usage. I'd give thought to making TDP or Coleman active for the game just in case with Mitchell having a soft tissue injury 

[TecmoSuperJoe]

7 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

I think in general, the Eagles benefitted from a pretty favorable schedule all year. They avoided all the best teams and played teams before they got hot (Lions, Packers, and Jaguars). With that said, they crushed just about everyone, so they're definitely an elite team. But they haven't faced a team like the 49ers yet. I think the end-of-year Cowboys were the closest thing to the 49ers that they faced, but they did so without Hurts. 

It's going to be a heavyweight title match on Sunday and I can't wait.

 

49ers and Eagles both now rank 31st and 32nd by DVOA SOS funny enough. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by TecmoSuperJoe

[J-ALL-DAY]

4 minutes ago, TecmoSuperJoe said:

49ers and Eagles both now rank 31st and 32nd by DVOA SOS funny enough. 

Yep, this was the same thing the Cowboys fans were saying about us last week....Philly was dominant with Hurts and took care of business in a way great teams do against inferior foes....Similar to us. They are stacked all around and we will have to earn it to reach the SB for the second time in Shanny's tenure.