Conference Championship Round: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

[N4L]

16 minutes ago, Forge said:

Man....this is the type of game that Kyle really gets paid the big bucks for because I have no idea what the answer is for this pass rush of the eagles besides "lets hope our offensive line can win" 

I have not had a chance to dive into eagles tape and I have not watched a lot of eagles games down the stretch, but typically you do this with a combination of screens, quick passes, and play action. 

Their LBs are their weak link, so I think in breaking routes/routes over the middle that develop quickly would be something we can utilize to keep the pass rush on its heels. Soften them up with quick passes, screens, and continue to grind them in the run game.

They have some beef on their DL up the middle, but I think we should have success with some stretch zone runs where we just run past the beef and then wall off the LBs. 

The path is there. Like you said, we have the coach to do it! 

[adamq]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35525087/eagles-aj-brown-says-diva-wants-ball

 

AJ Brown whining because he didn't get enough stats in a playoff win over the Giants. Weak. I can't imagine any 49er acting that way because they didn't get enough targets in any given game

[Forge]

18 minutes ago, N4L said:

I have not had a chance to dive into eagles tape and I have not watched a lot of eagles games down the stretch, but typically you do this with a combination of screens, quick passes, and play action. 

Their LBs are their weak link, so I think in breaking routes/routes over the middle that develop quickly would be something we can utilize to keep the pass rush on its heels. Soften them up with quick passes, screens, and continue to grind them in the run game.

They have some beef on their DL up the middle, but I think we should have success with some stretch zone runs where we just run past the beef and then wall off the LBs. 

The path is there. Like you said, we have the coach to do it! 

I do expect a healthy dose of bubble screens (since we never really do traditional rb screens). 

The playaction was  hit and miss versus dallas. I thought they did a really nice job at some points. 

Brock really needs to be ready to throw the ball quickly in this one. His throw time was very high against Dallas...he needs to just trust it and rip. He holds the ball for 3 seconds a throw again, he's going to get crunched 

[N4L]

13 minutes ago, Forge said:

Brock really needs to be ready to throw the ball quickly in this one. His throw time was very high against Dallas...he needs to just trust it and rip. He holds the ball for 3 seconds a throw again, he's going to get crunched 

Yeah, that was one of my biggest takeaway from Purdy last week. There were some slants open and he didn't pull the trigger immediately. I saw Lance do it a couple of times last year. His first read would be open, but he would go away from it.

I know Purdy likes to look deep first and then come short, but I think this week we need to look short first and just take the 4/7 yard passes. Get their defense frustrated, keep their offense off the field, and continue to chip away and slow the pace of the game down. Obviously need to score TDs in this scenario. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

27 minutes ago, Forge said:

I do expect a healthy dose of bubble screens (since we never really do traditional rb screens). 

The playaction was  hit and miss versus dallas. I thought they did a really nice job at some points. 

Brock really needs to be ready to throw the ball quickly in this one. His throw time was very high against Dallas...he needs to just trust it and rip. He holds the ball for 3 seconds a throw again, he's going to get crunched 

The reason his time was so high was in large part to all the play action rollouts/bootlegs he ran. On non-play action throws, his TTT was 2.76...Which seems about average? 

Purdy is going to take a bad sack or two with his playing style but I think Shanny is still going to be able to get the play action game going by being committed to the run game even if Philly is having success stopping it. This is what he does and what the offense is with Purdy at QB. 

Like I said a few days ago, expect to be in the 21 personnel often and have Juice help out of Reddick while Trent handles Sweat. Hargraves is going to be awfully tough to stop and I'd worry about him over anyone else. But if we can get the run game going and control the TOP, that will force them to bring the big boys and they will lose some of vaunted pass rush.

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

The reason his time was so high was in large part to all the play action rollouts/bootlegs he ran. On non-play action throws, his TTT was 2.76...Which seems about average? 

 

That seems pretty high, tbh. Nearly half the league has a time to throw at or below that number even when including play actions. But it also depends on where you're getting those numbers. I have found that NGS and PFF have some variance between their time to throw numbers. 

But I haven't broke down those numbers, to be honest. 

[Forge]

The pass rush situation is largely whatever. We are going to win there or we aren't. If we don't, we will probably lose, if we do, we have a decent shot at winning. Hurts will kill you with some runs now and again, but as a passer there is still some inconsistencies and struggles in the face of pressure. It's going to be the pass rush's biggest test of the year I think. That said, I feel really good about being able to contain the running backs in the run game. Obviously Hurts may do some damage, and perhaps that is unavoidable, but I don't think the 49ers are going to let them run all day or anything. The 49ers coming downhill on you is a whole hell of a lot different than the Giants coming downhill on you lol 

So the onus will really be on our offensive line to limit the amount of pressure Purdy faces. Dallas was really blowing up the interior offensive line..prevented our guys from moving forward and climbing the defense. We started to wear them down at the end, but I don't know if that is an option here given the depth of the Philly interior (and they are not traveling or coming off a short week). I don't know that the Eagles really have to sell out on run game or anything. Since acquiring Suh and Joseph, they are much closer to the middle of the pack in DVOA rush defense as opposed to the bottom of the league that they were previous. 

I wonder if we will see more pitch outs in the run game...or maybe more heavily based Duo approaches with the options for CMC or Mitchell to bounce? 

[J-ALL-DAY]

31 minutes ago, Forge said:

That seems pretty high, tbh. Nearly half the league has a time to throw at or below that number even when including play actions. But it also depends on where you're getting those numbers. I have found that NGS and PFF have some variance between their time to throw numbers. 

But I haven't broke down those numbers, to be honest. 

Dak in the same game had 2.81 seconds to throw on non-play actions. The other QBs from the divisional round: 

Burrow - 2.47

Allen - 3.15

Jones - 3.26

Hurts - 2.34

Mahomes - 2.68

Lawrence - 2.48

Average minus Purdy - 2.74

Average with Purdy - 2.74

Purdy average - 2.76

So yeah, it was about average....At least for this weekend. 

 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Dak in the same game had 2.81 seconds to throw on non-play actions. The other QBs from the divisional round: 

Burrow - 2.47

Allen - 3.15

Jones - 3.26

Hurts - 2.34

Mahomes - 2.68

Lawrence - 2.48

Average minus Purdy - 2.74

Average with Purdy - 2.74

Purdy average - 2.76

So yeah, it was about average....At least for this weekend. 

 

I would definitely want a targeted TTT of closer to 2.5 on traditional drop backs, but that's probably not going to happen for Purdy just because he likes to run around a bit. With these defenses, if they are getting pressure on 40% of your drop backs, I think you have to be better about ripping it as quickly as possible. 

I get why Allen and Jones are where they are. The Hurts one is curious. What was his ADOT? Like 4? lol 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Just now, Forge said:

I would definitely want a targeted TTT of closer to 2.5 on traditional drop backs, but that's probably not going to happen for Purdy just because he likes to run around a bit. With these defenses, if they are getting pressure on 40% of your drop backs, I think you have to be better about ripping it as quickly as possible. 

I get why Allen and Jones are where they are. The Hurts one is curious. What was his ADOT? Like 4? lol 

On non-play action, Hurts ADOT was 3.2 lol.

Purdy's on non-play action was 6.5.

[49erscap]

22 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

Remember after the Dolphins when we all were thinking "ok, Purdy just needs to win the Wild Card game, then he can hand it back over to Jimmy and we should be ok." 

Boy, how things change. 

Yes I do, I thought just get the West & WC win, then hand keys back to Jimmy, nah, I'm good with Purdy, I'm a believer in him.

[mw2noobbuster]

49ers by 21.

[J-ALL-DAY]

So the Eagles had 70 sacks while the Niners had 44 sacks...But in terms of QB hits? Eagles had 124 hits while the Niners had 121 hits. For the Eagles to have over 50% sack rate on QB hits is INSANE! And I'm wondering if they have one of the highest rates of sacks per QB hits in the history? That's a 58% sack rate per hit while ours is only 36%. We desperately need someone more explosive opposite of Bosa and that will increase our sack rate to at least the mid-40s, if not close to 50%. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

20 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So the Eagles had 70 sacks while the Niners had 44 sacks...But in terms of QB hits? Eagles had 124 hits while the Niners had 121 hits. For the Eagles to have over 50% sack rate on QB hits is INSANE! And I'm wondering if they have one of the highest rates of sacks per QB hits in the history? That's a 58% sack rate per hit while ours is only 36%. We desperately need someone more explosive opposite of Bosa and that will increase our sack rate to at least the mid-40s, if not close to 50%. 

Here are the other teams in the top 5 in total sacks:

KC - 55 sacks/118 hits = 47%

DAL - 54 sacks/110 hits = 49%

NE - 54 sacks/93 hits = 58%

NO = 48 sacks/87 hits = 55%

So you know what, the Eagles sack to hit percentage is actually nothing crazy. The Pats had a higher percentage of that and the Saints were just below. I guess the Niners rate is remarkably low??? Like he probably should have had at least 4-5 more sacks. He got some really nice reps vs Dallas that did not result in a sack but he is due for one...or two this game. The question is, can someone like Armstead join him and put some heat on Hurts from the interior? 

[JIllg]

19 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Here are the other teams in the top 5 in total sacks:

KC - 55 sacks/118 hits = 47%

DAL - 54 sacks/110 hits = 49%

NE - 54 sacks/93 hits = 58%

NO = 48 sacks/87 hits = 55%

So you know what, the Eagles sack to hit percentage is actually nothing crazy. The Pats had a higher percentage of that and the Saints were just below. I guess the Niners rate is remarkably low??? Like he probably should have had at least 4-5 more sacks. He got some really nice reps vs Dallas that did not result in a sack but he is due for one...or two this game. The question is, can someone like Armstead join him and put some heat on Hurts from the interior? 

I think some of (without empirical evidence to corraborate my intuation) that hit rate to sack conversion that is the coverage style you play behind it. Press man and truer cover 2 teams make it really hard to get to early answers and have release valves later in the play. We play a lot of cover 3, tampa 2, palms cover 4, and cover 6. Essentially all variants of deeper zone coverages with at least 3 dedicated deeper defenders to deter the long ball. Playing without man or 5 underneath defenders means that the offense has an easier time getting the ball out for small completions, but a very hard time getting deeper chunks without having one of their guys just beat someone (or having Huf get overeager). I definitely agree with a previous post that another major factor at turning pressures/hits to sacks is having a bunch of options that all regularly beat one on one blocks. The Eagles this year and in their Super Bowl year are a great example. Our 2019 defensive line is another. I do know that the empirical data shows that having multiple guys get pressures at once ups the sack percentage on those plays, which fits intuitively. It's just really hard to escape more than one guy winning at once. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by JIllg