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Change My View: It would be impossible for the Falcons to overpay to acquire Lamar Jackson

wackywabbit

By wackywabbit
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wackywabbit

wackywabbit

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Football internet nerds are too conservative and passive with their mentality. Yes, I'm talking to YOU personally. You who think cap space is precious to you personally and valiantly fight against the flow of money going from billionaires to millionaires. You who value each draft pick as the best case scenario over the more likely scenario that it is a guy who won't get a second contract with your team. You who talk about what a super smart strategy and/or critical building block it is to have a starting QB on a rookie wage scale contract, when the fact is that since the rookie wage scale went into effect with Cam Newton (2011) only twice has a QB on one of those contracts won the SB in 12 years (and they now make up half of the week 1 starters). You who are already typing a rebuttal about how we have to throw away Tom Brady seasons (cuz he played for free cuz of his zillionaire wife and you don't have the energy to look up his cap hits) and if these plays went differently the data point would be the opposite and Mahomes was too special so he doesn't count even after signing his deal, and X and Y don't count either because they don't help your point.

Too much blind devotion to the idea that cap space and hoarding draft picks is the purest and truest path to a guaranteed SB victory. The best example of the model you guys want to follow is the Cleveland Browns who hoarded a historically abnormal amount of both draft picks and cap space achieved through years of being legendarily pathetic year after year and trading back for future assets accepting more and more years of being utterly embarrassing for even more draft capital. Through all of that, they they achieved their franchise peak during a season in 2020 when they finished 3rd in the AFC North and after a step back the following year, they bent over and have tied all their hopes for the rest of the decade to a <censored>.

Here's an alternate truth: a team is either going to be irrelevant or it has a chance at contention.

A team, like the falcons as currently positioned, can wildly overpay for Lamar. They can trade their 1st and 2nd and 3rd round draft picks in 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and also fully guarantee him $60M a year for the next 6 years. But, they'll have Lamar in the NFC!!! They will HOST 3.5 playoff games and have another 1.5 wild card appearances in the 7 seasons left in this decade, with 80%* certainty. Or they can spend picks in rounds 1-7 (and comp picks) on whatever Best Player Available their scouts come up with in the draft for 7 years and spend $225M-$400M of cap space each of those years and still be a team that is ultimately irrelevant for the remainder of the decade with 75%* likelihood. The chances of a fleetingly interesting, yet historically forgettable team, for a year is 24.5%*. They have a 0.5%* chance of the dream season you all fantasize and strive for: a Super Bowl victory with a roster of an elite QB on a rookie contract along with 21 other first round superstars who were traded for even younger and super-erstars who instead of taking a salary, donated enough money to their billionaire owner to purchase a yacht that gets Jeff Bezos' respect.

*These percentages were produced by advanced AI, so they are 100% accurate and can not be debated

Edited by wackywabbit
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wackywabbit

wackywabbit

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4 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

If the Falcons think Lamar is a great (top 5ish) QB, then I agree. Can’t overpay for a top tier QB in this league.

 

Not quite sure I’m as high on Falcons though. Don’t think they’re a Lamar away from contending in NFC.

Lamar Jackson in the NFC SOUTH is a division title with cushion for higher seed. That with a few other savvy roster moves and a great gameplan or two by Arthur Smith is enough to shock a couple favorites in the NFC.

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iknowcool

iknowcool

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21 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

Lamar Jackson in the NFC SOUTH is a division title with cushion for higher seed. That with a few other savvy roster moves and a great gameplan or two by Arthur Smith is enough to shock a couple favorites in the NFC.

The Falcons defense is horrible.  Would they be the favorites with Lamar?  Sure, but acting like it is guarantee is crazy.  That team has some holes and barring a turnaround (difficult to see happening in your scenario where they trade the house for Lamar), it would be the worst defense Jackson has ever played with. 

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