Packerraymond Mock Off-Season; The Real, Real Last Dance (last 2 years were just practice)

[MaximusGluteus]

I do like the Josh Whyle pick.  I think he's a bit underrated in this TE class.

[Packerraymond]

55 minutes ago, squire12 said:

What does this hypothetical contract look like?

 

Well he cannot restructure his base, as it's the lowest a player of his experience level can have, and he cannot lower his signing bonus as it's already in his bank account, so the only way to get cap relief is from him is to rip up the future years of the deal and start fresh. If his option bonus was say 24m instead of 58m it would be 6m a year instead of 14m a year. He could outright tear up the 2024 and 2025 bonuses if he planned to retire.

Again this is a big financial sacrifice, but he said plain as day on McAfee that he understood if he comes back for 2023 that he would need to re-work some things.

Without that 8m, you're looking at sacrificing either the 2 defensive FAs or Waller and Allen, that just shows how bleak it will be if he doesn't re-work his deal. I would hope of he's unwilling to re-do the contract Gute and co would be smart enough to realize that roster isn't good enough, but I've kind of lost faith in all of them, but this is my mock and I'm smart so I did it.

 

[squire12]

37 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Well he cannot restructure his base, as it's the lowest a player of his experience level can have, and he cannot lower his signing bonus as it's already in his bank account, so the only way to get cap relief is from him is to rip up the future years of the deal and start fresh. If his option bonus was say 24m instead of 58m it would be 6m a year instead of 14m a year. He could outright tear up the 2024 and 2025 bonuses if he planned to retire.

Again this is a big financial sacrifice, but he said plain as day on McAfee that he understood if he comes back for 2023 that he would need to re-work some things.

Without that 8m, you're looking at sacrificing either the 2 defensive FAs or Waller and Allen, that just shows how bleak it will be if he doesn't re-work his deal. I would hope of he's unwilling to re-do the contract Gute and co would be smart enough to realize that roster isn't good enough, but I've kind of lost faith in all of them, but this is my mock and I'm smart so I did it.

 

Rodgers is guaranteed $58.3M from GB is cash sometime between now and the start of week 1.  I would be shocked if he opted to tear up a $58.3M dollar check.

He could spread that out over 5 years on a "new" contract, so a shade under $12M prorated for each year.  That would put his cap hit at about $28.66M....so about $3M less than it currently is set to be for 2023.

[hitnhope]

On 2/24/2023 at 2:08 PM, Dubz41 said:

I suppose it doesn't matter if you're bringing Rogers back. But as a fan of the organization, this made me throw up a little bit. Bringing back an oft injured veteran quarterback, oft injured veteran wide receiver and an injured TE. The last thing we need is to get OLDER with no shot at the Superb Owl. 

As sad as it is...bringing Rodgers back is conceding defeat. We're just caving in to the Diva's Drama.

Time to do what's best for the Packers.

Unfortunately that time was last year.   Rodgers coming back this year was already decided last year.   If this were not the case Gute was even dumber than I already think he is.   His personnel moves do not match his draft moves.

 

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, hitnhope said:

Unfortunately that time was last year.   Rodgers coming back this year was already decided last year.   If this were not the case Gute was even dumber than I already think he is.   His personnel moves do not match his draft moves.

 

In about ten years, we probably look back at Gute the same way we look back at Sherman.  Or, how we probably should view Sherman, I know a lot of people still don't like him.  Probably not that bad in the grand scheme of things, but was trying to plug holes in the leaking ship.  Sherman tried to keep the Wolf team continuity instead of starting over.  When Thompson took over for Sherman, he did a hard reset and had poor 05 and 06 seasons to rebuild with.  It seems like Gute is hanging on to the Thompson continuity instead of hitting the reset.  It is also easy for me to say, my job isn't on the line.

[hitnhope]

58 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

In about ten years, we probably look back at Gute the same way we look back at Sherman.  Or, how we probably should view Sherman, I know a lot of people still don't like him.  Probably not that bad in the grand scheme of things, but was trying to plug holes in the leaking ship.  Sherman tried to keep the Wolf team continuity instead of starting over.  When Thompson took over for Sherman, he did a hard reset and had poor 05 and 06 seasons to rebuild with.  It seems like Gute is hanging on to the Thompson continuity instead of hitting the reset.  It is also easy for me to say, my job isn't on the line.

Agree with you.  his job should be on the line for misreading the reality of the situation.  

Gute runs the Packers conservatively to never be a bad team.  They will also not be a really good team.  If we want to stay around .500 or a little better, he is a good choice.  If the goal is really to win a Super Bowl he is not the guy.   I do not have any belief that his methods will ever lead to a Super Bowl win.

[Mazrimiv]

1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

In about ten years, we probably look back at Gute the same way we look back at Sherman.  Or, how we probably should view Sherman, I know a lot of people still don't like him.  Probably not that bad in the grand scheme of things, but was trying to plug holes in the leaking ship.  Sherman tried to keep the Wolf team continuity instead of starting over.  When Thompson took over for Sherman, he did a hard reset and had poor 05 and 06 seasons to rebuild with.  It seems like Gute is hanging on to the Thompson continuity instead of hitting the reset.  It is also easy for me to say, my job isn't on the line.

The 4th and 26 Sherman unit was even more impressive than Gute's 2021 roster in its ability to find an unlikely way to lose a playoff game despite clearly being the better team.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

In about ten years, we probably look back at Gute the same way we look back at Sherman.  Or, how we probably should view Sherman, I know a lot of people still don't like him.  Probably not that bad in the grand scheme of things, but was trying to plug holes in the leaking ship.  Sherman tried to keep the Wolf team continuity instead of starting over.  When Thompson took over for Sherman, he did a hard reset and had poor 05 and 06 seasons to rebuild with.  It seems like Gute is hanging on to the Thompson continuity instead of hitting the reset.  It is also easy for me to say, my job isn't on the line.

Mike Sherman the HC wasn't the issue.  Mike Sherman the GM was.  Outside of his 2002 draft, he was an abysmal drafter.  His 2001 draft was highlighted by Robert Ferguson and David Martin.  His 2003 draft was led by Nick Barnett, and the second best player was Hunter Hillenmeyer who never played a snap for Green Bay.  2004 was the infamous Ahmad Carroll draft.  Carroll lasted 2.5 years while Joey Thomas lasted 1.5 years.  I don't think Donnell Thomas actually ever played for Green Bay and they traded up for BJ Sander and he lasted only 1 season.

[Striker]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Mike Sherman the HC wasn't the issue.  Mike Sherman the GM was.  Outside of his 2002 draft, he was an abysmal drafter.  His 2001 draft was highlighted by Robert Ferguson and David Martin.  His 2003 draft was led by Nick Barnett, and the second best player was Hunter Hillenmeyer who never played a snap for Green Bay.  2004 was the infamous Ahmad Carroll draft.  Carroll lasted 2.5 years while Joey Thomas lasted 1.5 years.  I don't think Donnell Thomas actually ever played for Green Bay and they traded up for BJ Sander and he lasted only 1 season.

Plus the free agent signings of Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Mark Roman and Hannibal Navies. And the Terry Glenn trade.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Striker

[OzPackfan]

On 2/25/2023 at 11:27 AM, squire12 said:

Rodgers is guaranteed $58.3M from GB is cash sometime between now and the start of week 1.  I would be shocked if he opted to tear up a $58.3M dollar check.

He could spread that out over 5 years on a "new" contract, so a shade under $12M prorated for each year.  That would put his cap hit at about $28.66M....so about $3M less than it currently is set to be for 2023.

There is no way on earth Rodgers will be paid 59.5m in cash this year. He knows it (as he alluded to on the Pat McAfee show) and the Packers know it.

If he comes back as I expect, I see his deal being re-negotiated in some manner and the option bonus for 2023 and 2024 both disappear. The cash he receives for playing in 2023 will be somewhere between 35m-43m range and his cap charge will be between the 26m to 29m range.

[squire12]

21 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

There is no way on earth Rodgers will be paid 59.5m in cash this year. He knows it (as he alluded to on the Pat McAfee show) and the Packers know it.

Are you expecting Rodgers to state that GB " better pay me my dam money "?

Of course he is saying the right things publicly.  

21 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

If he comes back as I expect, I see his deal being re-negotiated in some manner and the option bonus for 2023 and 2024 both disappear. The cash he receives for playing in 2023 will be somewhere between 35m-43m range and his cap charge will be between the 26m to 29m range.

Why is Rodgers tearing up the guaraoprion bonus of $58.3M for 2023?

[OzPackfan]

38 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Are you expecting Rodgers to state that GB " better pay me my dam money "?

Of course he is saying the right things publicly.  

Why is Rodgers tearing up the guaraoprion bonus of $58.3M for 2023?

I wouldn't expect Rodgers to say that "his contract would be reworked" if he didn't mean that. For all his faults, I don't regard him as a blatant liar.

I'd also expect that as he has said he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild, he would know things are tight with the cap and will need to sacrifice just like other players have done in order to have a competitive team.

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

I wouldn't expect Rodgers to say that "his contract would be reworked" if he didn't mean that. For all his faults, I don't regard him as a blatant liar.

I'd also expect that as he has said he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild, he would know things are tight with the cap and will need to sacrifice just like other players have done in order to have a competitive team.

Rodgers has also stated that player contracts should be guaranteed.... which his option bonus set up as such.  

Reworked is an interesting phrase.  Adding a void year would constitute the contract being "reworked".

[OzPackfan]

22 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Rodgers has also stated that player contracts should be guaranteed.... which his option bonus set up as such.  

Reworked is an interesting phrase.  Adding a void year would constitute the contract being "reworked".

Yep it could be as simple as adding a void year but just like Jones, i'm expecting he will take a pay cut.

Coming off 2 MVP's years he still only made just under 43m last year in cash. There is no reason to expect that this year isn't in that ball park.

[vegas492]

21 hours ago, hitnhope said:

 

Gute runs the Packers conservatively to never be a bad team.  They will also not be a really good team.  If we want to stay around .500 or a little better, he is a good choice.  If the goal is really to win a Super Bowl he is not the guy.   I do not have any belief that his methods will ever lead to a Super Bowl win.

How is it that 3-13 win seasons is not a really good team?