The STL Cardinals Thread - New Season, Same Old Cardinals?

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Baseball America just came out with their new top 100….

10. Jordan Walker 3B
18. Nolan Gorman 2B 
41. Matthew Liberatore LHP
98. Masyn Winn SS
99. Gordon Graceffo RHP 
 

That looks about right.  Think Ivan Herrera is really the only omission from that list.

[CWood21]

On 6/20/2022 at 10:03 AM, StLunatic88 said:

Since every BFIB screamed from the mountaintops that Mo & Co were idiots, and that Gorman had to be better than what we were trotting out there, lets actually take a look at what the wunderkind has been up to lately;

If you want to argue that Nolan Gorman needs more seasoning, I wouldn't argue too hard with you.  Not sure that he gets that in AAA Memphis, but that's another discussion.  But let's look at their alternatives.  Over 86 PA this year, Paul DeJong had a wRC+ of 25.  For as much as people complained about Molina's bat, he's at least posting a wRC+ of 47.  If having Molina in the lineup is a hole, then that would make DeJong a blackhole.  DeJong simply isn't playable at SS by any stretch of the imagination.  As good as Brendan Donovan has been so far in his brief St. Louis Cardinals career, it's not sustainable.  He's posting the highest walk rate of his career (with his K% rising marginally), his BABIP is very high at .381 which he's only had a BABIP north of .340 once in his minor league career, and his wRC+ is the highest he's posted at any level in his career where he's taken at least 100 PA.  You ride him until he comes down to earth.  Defensively, he's not going to offer much, so as long as he's a reasonable defender you're good with average production.

As for Nolan Gorman, he's struggling absolutely.  He's pressing.  His K% has gone up, his BB% has dropped, and his BABIP is a measly .242 in June.  He's only posted a BABIP below .300 ONCE in his brief career and it was his first stop in Low-A.  HIs bat will come around, it's just a matter of time.

[CWood21]

On 6/20/2022 at 1:53 PM, StLunatic88 said:

What about his time in the majors says he was ready? DeJong needing to be demoted and Gorman "needing" to be called up are not directly correlated. The worry about Gorman was always the Strikeouts, it was bad in the minors, and was going to be a problem in the majors. People said "hes hitting HRs you have to bring him up" and yes it was mostly BFIBs, because they dont understand the K-rate issue.

What about his MILB numbers suggested he wasn't?  Gorman is always going to be a swing and miss prospect.  That's the way his game is built.  That's no different than any other player.  You want power, you better be willing to take the strikeouts with it.

[ttitansfan4life]

Yea Flaherty should’ve definitely spent more time rehabbing in the minors. 

[holt_bruce81]

Have yourself a game Nolan Gorman!

[kgarrett12486]

11 hours ago, ttitansfan4life said:

Yea Flaherty should’ve definitely spent more time rehabbing in the minors. 

Yep. They gave him the benefit of the doubt knowing his body, but he's clearly out of sorts and it's effecting his mechanics. He's sitting around 90-91 after a couple innings and his slider is flat. He's clearly not 100%.

 

[kgarrett12486]

5 hours ago, holt_bruce81 said:

Have yourself a game Nolan Gorman!

He told @StLunatic88 and myself to shove it lol.

 

[kgarrett12486]

With the way Wittgren, Verhagen and McFarland have been pitching and Oli's recent comments about them not getting it done and (paraphrasing) being removed from keeping 1-2 run leads, I thin Thompson and Oviedo are your bridge guys now. 

Thompson has looked really good last few outings. 

[StLunatic88]

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

What about his MILB numbers suggested he wasn't?  

I will always point to that K-rate, because it was only going to get worse, with the jump to the majors. And the biggest reason most pointed to for bringing him up was the HR, which werent sustainable (not even likely to be in the minors) And it would have been one thing if he was just striking out, but he was getting absolutely fooled on those Ks, which is what has been most of his time in the majors.

14 hours ago, CWood21 said:

 But let's look at their alternatives.

Im not saying we had good options, but lack of other players isnt a plus for Gorman in this discussion. Thats an indictment on the organizations planning. 

[StLunatic88]

2 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

He told @StLunatic88 and myself to shove it lol.

Very glad to see it, but now he has to keep it rolling. Obviously not repeating that performance, but last time he had his couple of break out games, he followed it up with 5-32 with 14 Ks in the next 3 series that he played basically the whole time. (most of that was against the Cubs and Reds)

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

I will always point to that K-rate, because it was only going to get worse, with the jump to the majors. And the biggest reason most pointed to for bringing him up was the HR, which werent sustainable (not even likely to be in the minors) And it would have been one thing if he was just striking out, but he was getting absolutely fooled on those Ks, which is what has been most of his time in the majors.

His K% rate in AAA was 34% this year, and the 19.2% he posted the year before in AAA was the best of his career by far.  If he can get that K% rate down to ~26%, you're stoked.  Last year, of the top 25 in terms of HRs hit only SIX had a sub-20% K rate: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, and Jorge Polanco.  Hell, look at Joey Gallo the last 2 seasons (before this year).

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

Im not saying we had good options, but lack of other players isnt a plus for Gorman in this discussion. Thats an indictment on the organizations planning. 

The Cardinals are 12th in payroll in MLB.  About $8M behind the Braves who are 9th.  The only notable FA that the Cardinals were reportedly linked to was Trevor Story.  Speaking of Story, Gorman's numbers look more impressive then Story's despite the lack of consistent PT.

[StLunatic88]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

His K% rate in AAA was 34% this year, and the 19.2% he posted the year before in AAA was the best of his career by far.  If he can get that K% rate down to ~26%, you're stoked.  Last year, of the top 25 in terms of HRs hit only SIX had a sub-20% K rate: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, and Jorge Polanco.  Hell, look at Joey Gallo the last 2 seasons (before this year).

Yes if Gorman's MAJOR LEAGUE K rate is ~26% then I will be ecstatic. He will be the exact type of power hitter this lineup needs to add that bit of dynamic and fearsome hitter to backup our consistent guys. But it was already at 34% in the Minors, they had adjusted to him in AAA and he had not made the counter yet, so his K rate wasnt getting better with the move. Can it? Of Course! And it better if he wants to stick in the majors. 

 

[CWood21]

3 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

Yes if Gorman's MAJOR LEAGUE K rate is ~26% then I will be ecstatic. He will be the exact type of power hitter this lineup needs to add that bit of dynamic and fearsome hitter to backup our consistent guys. But it was already at 34% in the Minors, they had adjusted to him in AAA and he had not made the counter yet, so his K rate wasnt getting better with the move. Can it? Of Course! And it better if he wants to stick in the majors. 

Unless the coaching staff specifically tells him to go up to the plate with the intention of not striking out, his K% rate isn't going to drop drastically without his game suffering otherwise.  When his K% rate dropped in 2021 in his first trip to AAA, his power dropped drastically with a sub-.200 ISO which was the second lowest of his career.  There's going to be swing and miss to his game.  That's part of the issue with power hitters.  They tend to have more holes in their swing then say a guy like Tommy Edman.

[ttitansfan4life]

4 hours ago, kgarrett12486 said:

With the way Wittgren, Verhagen and McFarland have been pitching and Oli's recent comments about them not getting it done and (paraphrasing) being removed from keeping 1-2 run leads, I thin Thompson and Oviedo are your bridge guys now. 

Thompson has looked really good last few outings. 

They definitely need to use Thompson more. I’ve been impressed with him. If Oviedo has command on his pitches, then he’s fine. The other 3 can GTFO. I still think we need a starter. I’ve seen mention of MadBum. Pushes Pallante to the bullpen. Might be getting Hicks back shortly. We’ll see what we get out of Flaherty and Matz the rest of the year but I think a starter would really help this team out a lot. Not sure the price on MadBum though.

[holt_bruce81]

McFarland was added to the Covid list. Junior Fernandez called up.