PackFanFB's "Let's Help Jordan Love" Mock

[packfanfb]

Opening Rant -- the Jets need to gtfoh with the "Rodgers isn't worth a 1st round pick" nonsense. If the Jets truly believed that and didn't think Rodgers was head-and-shoulders above the field, they would have just signed Carr or Jimmy G on a much more reasonable deal. Don't let the media nonsense fool you. The Jets want Rodgers because they believe he's the ticket to the Super Bowl. Not Carr. Not Jimmy. Not any other retread. I don't care if his contract is $100m/year and he only plays one year, when you view a QB as the missing SB piece, the way the Jets do Rodgers, he worth a 1st rounder, and frankly, a lot more. 

Nevertheless, in this mock, the Packers don't get pick 13 for Rodgers. 

Current cap space: around $24 million (according to OTC)

Free Agency - Pre-Draft

Signings/Re-signings so far: 

• Rudy Ford (S)
• Tarvarius Moore (S)
• Matt Orzech (LS)
• Keisean Nixon (CB/RS)
• Yosh Nijman (OT) - tendered
• Tyler Davis (TE)

Remaining Free Agents:

• Adrian Amos - gone
• Corey Ballentine - gone
• Randall Cobb - gone
• Mason Crosby - gone
• Justin Hollins - tempting but gone
• Dallin Leavitt - I think Moore replaces him on the roster, so gone
• Marcedes Lewis - gone 
• Eric Wilson - resigned to 1-year deal. Wilson is a great ST player and rounds out the ILB depth. 
• Krys Barnes (RFA) - not tendered, so gone

Trade - Packers trade Aaron Rodgers to the Jets for the following: 

• Jets get --> Aaron Rodgers
• Packers get: 
  • 2023 2nd round pick (pick 43) 
  • 2024 conditional 3rd round pick -> conditioned purely on Jets' 2023 success. If Jets fail to make playoffs or lose in wildcard round, Packers get 3rd round pick. If Jets advance to divisional round, Packers get 2nd round pick. If Jets win AFC and advance to SB, Packers get 1st round pick in 2024. 
  • Jermaine Johnson, EDGE

Packers give up their quest to get pick 13 in the 2023 draft, and instead, settle for the Jets' 1st round pick from 2022, Jermaine Johnson. Packers have a need at EDGE with Gary coming back from the ACL and the overall lack of depth at the position. Johnson was worked in pretty slowly last year and finished with 2.5 sacks, but still has 3 years left on his rookie deal, plus the 5th year option. Jets should be willing to part with him, especially if they get to keep pick 13 in a draft that very deep with EDGE rushers. 

Cap Space Post Rodgers Trade -> Around $13-15 million (Packers eat about another $9m in the Rodgers trade, plus spend a little to bring back Wilson) 

Other Pre-Draft FA Moves:

Marvin Jones (WR) 6'2", 200lbs - 1 year, $4m max deal (incentives + plus void year, $1.5m cap hit 2023) 

Had Marvin in my last mock and a few of us have talked about him around here. He makes a lot of sense to fill that "veteran in the WR room" role, which Gute pretty much said he'd like to have. He won't cost a ton and even in his 30s, is still a solid role player. Very good contested catch and red-zone guy. Also, unlike Sammy, Jones has a pretty good history of being durable. Perfect stop-gap player for Love and the other young WRs. 

Chris Wormley (DL) 6'5", 300lbs - 2-year, $4m (void year, $1.5 m cap hit 2023)

Packers lost Reed and Lowry, and even with the projected uptick in snaps for Wyatt and Slaton, they need to add another DL to the rotation. Moreover, with Lowry gone, the roster currently lacks a more prototypical 5-tech body. Enter Wormley. A former Raven (Hendrickson connection), Wormley has been a reliable rotational player for the Steelers the last couple of years and had a big year in 2021 (7 sacks) when he was thrusted into a starting role. Would be a valuable addition to the DL and wouldn't force the Packers to reach for a DL in a draft that seems very weak in that department. 

Trevor Siemian (QB) - 1 year, $900,000 (cap hit $900k) 

With Love as the starter, Packers would be smart to drop a few pennies on a veteran back-up. Siemian was recently released along with Hoyer, making both of them viable candidates for the job. Hoyer is a bit long in the tooth so the Packers go with Siemian who can at least manage a game or two if Love were to go down with a concussion or minor injury. 

Pre-Draft Cap Space -> Around $9-10m 

 

2023 Draft 

Round 1 (Pick 15) -> Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) - OSU - 6'1", 196 lbs

If he's there at 15, it might be the easiest pick of Gute's career to date. You have a new QB who you want to fairly evaluate in 2023 to see if he's the next face of the franchise. Give Love some help. He has Watson who's the potential big-play guy and Doubs who's a developing player, but JSN would be his No. 1 WR a week into Training Camp. This guys lives in the MOF and understands the nuances of route-running (look at those shuttle and 3-cone scores), maybe better than any draft prospect since Jefferson. For those interested, Greg Jennings, yes that Greg Jennings, gave a quick, but on-the-spot assessment of JSN, explaining how advanced he is in understanding how to win in the passing game.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohh2DI4g8F. There's a reason why JSN was the best WR on the field in 2021 when playing alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, two guys who just had great rookie seasons. This is the year Gute needs to throw the "don't draft a WR in round 1" out the window (then he can go back to that rule in 2024 if he wants). Help Jordan Love and get him a new best friend. 

Round 2 (Pick 43) -> Luke Musgrave (TE) - Oregon St. - 6'6", 253 lbs

With our first 2nd rounder, again, the theme is, "Help Jordan Love" and address the TE position. While I think the Packers plan to make Deguara a bigger part of their plans in 2023 (he's in the last year of his rookie deal), the TE class is simply too rich not to invest and try to nab a long-term difference maker at the position. At 43, I think Mayer, Kincaid and even Washington (after his combine) may all be off the board, but Musgrave would be a perfect fit and replacement for Tonyan. Musgrave would instantly be the most athletic TE we've had since Finley and gives off Dallas Goedert vibes in terms of his size and speed. Not the best in-line blocker yet, but willing and better in that department than Kincaid, the other top Y-TE prospect. Like JSN, Musgrave missed most of 2022 and has some injury red flags, but he seems healthy now and would be another piece for Love to attack the MOF, something I expect him to do a lot more than Rodgers. 

Round 2 (Pick 45) -> Jordan Battle (S) - Alabama - 6'1", 209 lbs

Even if the signings of Ford and Moore, and the likeliness that retain Savage and his $8m price tag, I still think the Packers will be looking to add some talent to the safety room. After the combine, frankly, it doesn't appear to be a very good crop, but Battle is a player who I think will interest us. Like others we've drafted before him, he's a versatile player (deep, slot, box). Probably his biggest weakness is consistency as a tackler, which frankly means he should fit right in with our secondary room. 

Round 3 (Pick 78) -> Isaiah Foskey (EDGE) - Notre Dame - 6'5", 264 lbs

Even with the addition of Johnson via the Rodgers trade, this draft is simply too deep at the EDGE position not to grab another one on Day 2. Foskey fits the RAS profile and isn't the best bender, but plays with power like Enagbare, but overall is a better athlete. Overall, Foskey has upside as a young rusher and would round out a revamped back-end to the EDGE room, with Johnson, Foskey and Enagbare behind Gary/Smith. 

Round 4 (Pick 116) -> Luke Schoonmaker (TE) - Michigan - 6'5", 251 lbs

Unless the Packers pick up a TE in FA, I fully expect them to draft 2. Schoonmaker is an underrated player who didn't have a ton of production at Michigan, but was utilized a lot as an in-line blocker, where he was pretty solid. Packers will need to pick up at least one TE who has experience as in-line blocker after losing Lewis and Schoonmaker fits the bill. He would round out what would now be a young TE room, comprised of Deguara, Musgrave, Schoonmaker and Davis. 

Round 5 (Pick 149) -> Wanya Morris (OT/OG) - Oklahoma - 6'5", 307 lbs

I actually feel pretty good about the Packers' OL this year and beyond from a depth perspective, but it felt weird not taking a big guy in rounds 1-4, so Gute graps Morris in round 5. Fits the profile of previous OL targets in terms of being athletic and versatile, with experience playing multiple positions in college. Will get a chance to compete with guys like Rhyan, Walker, Jones, etc. for a spot on the back-end of the roster for 2023. 

Round 5 (Pick 170) -> Bryce Ford-Wheaton (WR) - WVU - 6'4", 221 lbs

Even if JSN (and Marvin) in town, Packers still need bodies in the WR room for competition on the back-end. Ford-Wheaton is basically a "wet dream" prospect for Gute - amazing size and athleticism. He's pretty raw on the field in terms of his route tree, etc., but was a jump ball specialist for WVU who made a lot of contested catches. Should provide good competition for that No. 5-6 spot in the WR room for 2023. 

Round 7 (Pick 232) -> Clayton Tune (QB) - Houston - 6'2", 220 lbs

Packers are likely going to nab a QB in the draft. Tune could go earlier in rounds 5-6, but he fits the athletic profile at the position and would be a developmental prospect as a game-managing back-up. Doesn't have the best arm strength, but it's the 7th round. 

Round 7 (Pick 235) -> Brodric Martin (DT) - WKU - 6'4", 335 lbs 

Massive human and NT/IDL project who can compete with Johnathan Ford for the "biggest DL to make the team" spot. No RAS available as he wasn't invited to the combine. 

Round 7 (Pick 242) -> Mekhi Garner (CB) - LSU - 6'2", 212 lbs

Big, long CB with ST upside. 

Round 7 (Pick 256)-> Jake Moody (K) - Michigan - 6'1", 209 lbs

Kickers are people too. Packers finally let long-time stalwart Mason Crosby ride off into the sunset and draft his replacement. Moody has a good leg, can kick in the elements and will hopefully be the next great kicker for the Packers. 

 

Post-Draft 53-Man Roster Prediction

Offense: (25-26):

QB: Love, Siemian, Tune (R) (3) 

RB: Jones, Dillon, Patrick/Goodson (3) 

WR: Watson, JSN (R), Doubs, M. Jones, Toure, Ford-Wheaton (R) (6) 

TE: Deguara, Musgrave (R), Schoonmaker (R), Davis (4)

OL: Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Newman, Walker, Morris (R), Jones/Hanson (9/10) 

Defense (24-25):

DL: Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Wormley, Ford/Martin (R) (5) 

EDGE: Gary, Smith, Johnson, Enagbare, Foskey (R) (5) 

ILB: Campbell, Walker, McDuffie, Wilson (4) 

CB: Alexander, Stokes, Douglas, Jean-Charles, Nixon, Garner (R) (5/6) 

S: Savage, Battle (R), Ford, Moore, Carpenter (5) 

ST: Moody (R), O'Donnell, Orzech (3) 

 

[Packerraymond]

Totally solid, cant really poke a hole in anything. 

 

[beekay414]

I like it but I feel like, per usual with any mock, some of the values are hopeful. I think Schoonmaker, BFW and Gardner go earlier based on athletic testing. I also think, instead of Tune, we'd take a shot on DTR from UCLA.

[{Family Ghost}]

This is the way!  Great job .. someone should send it to the Packers.

[Leader]

Geeeezzzzz you sure went limp on that "AR's worth a 1" declaration.

The odds that the Jets - who've not been to the SB in over 50 years - are getting to the SB because they suddenly have the player that couldnt get us back there in 12 years.....I might as well buy a Powerball ticket.

[packfanfb]

11 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I like it but I feel like, per usual with any mock, some of the values are hopeful. I think Schoonmaker, BFW and Gardner go earlier based on athletic testing. I also think, instead of Tune, we'd take a shot on DTR from UCLA.

I don't know jack about the QBs so I'm good with any guy who has some mobility. Agree Schoon and BFW could go a round earlier. Schoon just killed his pro day. 

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, packfanfb said:

I don't know jack about the QBs so I'm good with any guy who has some mobility. Agree Schoon and BFW could go a round earlier. Schoon just killed his pro day. 

No you're fine. Tune fits but I think we'd take the more toolsy guy at that point. Tune is probably a safe call as a back-up caliber guy that can come in and not lose you games so he makes sense in his own right. 

[HighCalebR]

Gonna start seeming like im railing against musgrave in every mock, i just dont think you can say hes better than kincaid in line. At most you could say theyre equally bad but i still think thats not quite right. I dont think Kincaids completely awful at it.

Dont hate the pick as a big slot who can body DB's though.

[beekay414]

3 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Gonna start seeming like im railing against musgrave in every mock, i just dont think you can say hes better than kincaid in line. At most you could say theyre equally bad but i still think thats not quite right. I dont think Kincaids completely awful at it.

Dont hate the pick as a big slot who can body DB's though.

I think that's why he hedged with Schoonmaker. Luke's more of your traditional TE while Musgrave is your mismatch in the passing game.

[HighCalebR]

20 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

I think that's why he hedged with Schoonmaker. Luke's more of your traditional TE while Musgrave is your mismatch in the passing game.

Just feel it's an overdraft for the player. If Mark Andrews can make it to #86, in something of a similar year for TE's, thats gotta be musgraves area. The scouting report is just so similar, without the production for Luke M. 

And a mock just shouldnt have two TEs named Luke.

[VegasDan]

Great trade scenario for AR, havent thought about getting a OLB.  Whole draft is really well done and realistic.

Only issue is Battle in the 2nd is a reach for need. Rather get an OL in that spot. There are a couple who should be available who could develop as good OTs.

Edited March 19, 2023 by VegasDan

[beekay414]

44 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Just feel it's an overdraft for the player. If Mark Andrews can make it to #86, in something of a similar year for TE's, thats gotta be musgraves area. The scouting report is just so similar, without the production for Luke M. 

And a mock just shouldnt have two TEs named Luke.

If it's his value, it's his value. Value is what the market dictates. I like Musgraves and it would, as always, depend on the board. If TE is where the value lies, you take your guy. If there's an EDGE or OT there or WR, you go that route. Hard to say where a guy should go when you can't see the entire board.

[HighCalebR]

17 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

If it's his value, it's his value. Value is what the market dictates. I like Musgraves and it would, as always, depend on the board. If TE is where the value lies, you take your guy. If there's an EDGE or OT there or WR, you go that route. Hard to say where a guy should go when you can't see the entire board.

I guess we'll see. Ill believe it when i see it.

[CWood21]

Very much doubt that the Packers are going to get that package from the Jets.  Take out Jermaine Johnson, and make that conditional '24 pick a bit more achievable and tag in a '25 conditional pick (based on Rodgers' playing in 2024) and you're probably in the ballpark.

Overall, I like the direction that you took it.  If I were doing a mock, it'd probably be similar to that.  Although, I'd probably have something like moving down in the 2nd round and then using a pair of 4ths and their 3rd to move back into the back-end of the 2nd round to grab another position.

[ThatJerkDave]

I do like me some JSN and Foskey. 

Bryce Ford-Wheaton does look like a EQ, MVS, Christian Watson type, doesn't he? Looking at these highlights:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdrNJlhN0rQ&ab_channel=KetariProductions  I really like how he gets in position to make it very hard for the DBs to break up passes.  But in the highlights there really only is one play, a screen against Kansas, where I am thinking, "this guy is fast." Not that he is slow, but he doesn't seem to run away like the three guys mentioned.

 

I am incredibly biased, Jermaine Johnson was one of my guys last year.  I would probably be down with JJ for Rodgers, straight up.  The only nit-picky complaint I would have, is we would have an embarrassment of riches at the edge position, and it seems like we could spread the wealth a little bit, especially if we draft Foskey on top of it.  

I also like the more realistic FA period for the Packers.  Get a DL, get an old guy for the WR kids, and get a back-up QB.

Quality.