Brock Purdy franchise QB?

[John232]

On a gut level, I think it’s a no. Purely because shanny falls out of love fast, his frame is a real concern and he does have legitimate physical limitations and he’s not proven to be Drew Brees/Tom Brady level timing, pocket presence and accuracy that can offset those limitations.  Considering he already had a major injury, I’m not encouraged.

 

With all that said..he’s the most confident I’ve been in a QB since first run jimmy and prime kap. Not a high bar, but no one should question him being named starter for the immediate future. He earned it.

 

But is he franchise in the way he should be getting a second contract? No, not yet

[N4L]

On 4/25/2023 at 4:21 PM, Forge said:

Right now it's actually kind of scary how similar he and Jimmy in terms of some production data and modeling. I have no problem with Jimmy on a 7th round rookie contract. 

But with more mobility and a heart 10x the size. 

The passion and the drive he plays with is something the team needed from a QB. I've seen too many lackadaisical games from QBs over the last 15 years. Even guys with big hearts like Alex Smith would only flash it. 

Purdy showed up every week ready to ball like his life depended on it, even when he wasn't a starter. Everyone kept thinking he would have a let down game and he just kept showing up ready to play. Which is kind of ironic because he was wildly inconsistent in college week to week. 

The game means a lot to him. I don't know how much I can say that about Jimmy, who seems to love the lifestyle as much as anything else. Purdy is a former wrestler and I think he brings a wrestler's mindset. That is why I think his teammates gravitated towards him. 

I will forever be skeptical of one season sample sizes for qbs because of Kaepernick and Jimmy. Kaepernick I didn't really understand the nuance of QB like I do now, and for Jimmy I didn't really understand how easy it is to regress if you don't have a proven track record over a long period. Jimmy could have been a top 10 QB but he just doesn't seem to have that extra gear in terms of drive and determination that it seems Purdy possesses. 

I had concerns about his arm before the injury, but he kept proving me wrong. His arm was good enough to go deep. So now that he tore his UCL, I am going to be very worried until I see him throw a pass 20-30 yards in the air. 

So, I am very much taking the wait and see approach, knowing that the UCL tear was a career altering injury, and that the offense is absurdly stacked, meaning we can win a lot of games with a lot of different QBs. 

We have been through come qb competitions, but this is the first time in my lifetime where I feel really confident with all of the options. I still think Trey can improve rapidly if he approaches it with a competitive fire and Darnold has enough talent to where it's not unreasonable to expect improvement with the best coaches, the best OL, the best run game, and the best weapons he has ever had in his life

[clarkfn2284]

On 4/26/2023 at 7:26 AM, Chrissooner49er said:

Um, he had ONE drive in the NFC Championship game where he could actually throw. 

You seem to have an axe to grind against anyone who you perceive as "crowning" Purdy. I am sorry you feel that way. I am excited about him, so I am biased. You appear to be biased against him. I see no point in continuing to argue or debate. 

"A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still." 

What is funny is that I like him as well, but you insist he can be the Franchise QB for the 49ers, then in the same sentence state he can't be that anywhere else. If you dont think he would be a franchise QB for anyone else then he likely isn't that. Franchise QBs are Franchise QBs no matter where they go. It's not an axe to grin with Brock, it's with your assessment of his play and how he is already better than JG, which simply isn't true. Yet. They are eerily similar and now he is coming off of an injury that can impact his future just as JG did with the ACL. I asked you to elaborate on what he has pulled off that no other QB has and you chose to not address that. I would agree you are biased, which is fine, but until you can prove what you're stating as fact people are going to be skeptical. I dont want this team to pass on the potential of Trey without getting a true look at him because they are infatuated with an 8 game run from Purdy and I especially do not want them to create another JG situation where they overpay for an extremely small sample size. Been there and done that.

[clarkfn2284]

14 hours ago, N4L said:

But with more mobility and a heart 10x the size. 

The passion and the drive he plays with is something the team needed from a QB. I've seen too many lackadaisical games from QBs over the last 15 years. Even guys with big hearts like Alex Smith would only flash it. 

Purdy showed up every week ready to ball like his life depended on it, even when he wasn't a starter. Everyone kept thinking he would have a let down game and he just kept showing up ready to play. Which is kind of ironic because he was wildly inconsistent in college week to week. 

The game means a lot to him. I don't know how much I can say that about Jimmy, who seems to love the lifestyle as much as anything else. Purdy is a former wrestler and I think he brings a wrestler's mindset. That is why I think his teammates gravitated towards him. 

I will forever be skeptical of one season sample sizes for qbs because of Kaepernick and Jimmy. Kaepernick I didn't really understand the nuance of QB like I do now, and for Jimmy I didn't really understand how easy it is to regress if you don't have a proven track record over a long period. Jimmy could have been a top 10 QB but he just doesn't seem to have that extra gear in terms of drive and determination that it seems Purdy possesses. 

I had concerns about his arm before the injury, but he kept proving me wrong. His arm was good enough to go deep. So now that he tore his UCL, I am going to be very worried until I see him throw a pass 20-30 yards in the air. 

So, I am very much taking the wait and see approach, knowing that the UCL tear was a career altering injury, and that the offense is absurdly stacked, meaning we can win a lot of games with a lot of different QBs. 

We have been through come qb competitions, but this is the first time in my lifetime where I feel really confident with all of the options. I still think Trey can improve rapidly if he approaches it with a competitive fire and Darnold has enough talent to where it's not unreasonable to expect improvement with the best coaches, the best OL, the best run game, and the best weapons he has ever had in his life

Brock looked great, but there are a lot of feelings in this post. A lot of things that people "think" and usage of stuff that we "think" makes the difference for Brock. To be honest, we have no idea about the heart and the competitiveness and why a team responds to one guy versus another. Those are all things we tell ourselves to make us feel more secure in our opinion. I don't think any of us can question JG's desire to win, or his willingness to play through injury at least in his time here. I wouldnt feel comfortable questioning Trey's dedication considering he is still here seemingly being a good soldier while getting a bit of the shaft. These guys are all elite level competitors. At the end of the day the talent and what they do with it wins out.

[jonnguy2015]

So let's say the next two years are more of the same: Purdy continues playing like a more mobile Jimmy G and avoids any more major injuries, and his efficiency numbers are near the top of the league but the general consensus is he's somewhere in the 11-20 range of starting QBs depending on who you ask, meanwhile the Niners go on two more deep playoff runs but ultimately come up short of winning it all both times. Purdy doesn't shrink in those big moments like Jimmy, and indeed ends up being a key part of some of their playoff wins, but proves unable to keep up with more talented QBs in the NFCCG/Super Bowl

Going into the final year of the contract, what's the max you'd be willing to pay him? And if he doesn't accept that, what do you do? Let him play on the final year of his contract and then tag him if you're still at an impasse? Let him walk and get the 2027 3rd round comp pick? Trade him? And assuming we pick high in the 1st round in both years in this scenario where do you go to find a new QB given that Lance is probably gone by then?

Edited April 29, 2023 by jonnguy2015

[Forge]

2 hours ago, jonnguy2015 said:

So let's say the next two years are more of the same: Purdy continues playing like a more mobile Jimmy G and avoids any more major injuries, and his efficiency numbers are near the top of the league but the general consensus is he's somewhere in the 11-20 range of starting QBs depending on who you ask, meanwhile the Niners go on two more deep playoff runs but ultimately come up short of winning it all both times. Purdy doesn't shrink in those big moments like Jimmy, and indeed ends up being a key part of some of their playoff wins, but proves unable to keep up with more talented QBs in the NFCCG/Super Bowl

Going into the final year of the contract, what's the max you'd be willing to pay him? And if he doesn't accept that, what do you do? Let him play on the final year of his contract and then tag him if you're still at an impasse? Let him walk and get the 2027 3rd round comp pick? Trade him? And assuming we pick high in the 1st round in both years in this scenario where do you go to find a new QB given that Lance is probably gone by then?

At that point, those guys are going to make 40-45 million a year. I'd move on. I'm pretty consistently against paying QBs in that range. I understand why teams do it, but I hate it

[oldman9er]

I don't think I ever bought much into this "elite QB" tag. Team game and all, yet sure, the QB has to be hungry and sharp.

I'm good with having a "B grade" moderate pay QB surrounded by better paid support cast. It's far more achievable.

The problem is more of what agenda most influences the refs in key playoff moments. That is the true obstacle to the big 🏆...

[Forge]

37 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

I'm good with having a "B grade" moderate pay QB surrounded by better paid support cast. It's far more achievable.

 

Recent history doesn't support that though, tbh. 

Elite QB or rookie deal qb for the most part. Past super bowl winners: 

2022 - Chiefs (elite qb)

2021 - Rams (good comp )

2020 - Brady (GOAT)

2019 - Mahomes (rookie deal, elite)

2018 - Brady (GOAT)

2017 - Foles / Wentz (rookie deal)

2016 - Brady (GOAT)

2015 - Manning (this qualifies as he was garbage and overpaid lol)

2014 - Brady (GOAT)

2013 - Wilson (Rookie deal)

2012 - Flacco (Rookie deal)

2011 - Eli (qualfies, though tbh he's probably going to the hall of fame...which isi crazy lol)

2010 - Rodgers (elite) 

Moderately paid QBs are the guys like Cousins, Carr, Tannehill...seems that they are the hardest to get continued, sustained success with. 

[clarkfn2284]

On 4/29/2023 at 11:33 AM, Forge said:

At that point, those guys are going to make 40-45 million a year. I'd move on. I'm pretty consistently against paying QBs in that range. I understand why teams do it, but I hate it

Yeah I don't see how you can justify paying a guy a hefty sum if you are unsure of him. At the end of the day I only extend a QB if I know he is a top tier guy that will be with me for a decade plus

 

[Chrissooner49er]

18 hours ago, clarkfn2284 said:

Yeah I don't see how you can justify paying a guy a hefty sum if you are unsure of him. At the end of the day I only extend a QB if I know he is a top tier guy that will be with me for a decade plus

 

We do have a couple of years to wait and see, so why not do exactly that? 

[StevenK]

John Lynch reported that Purdy should be able to throw around early, mid June. This is going to be interesting. Hope they aren’t rushing him back! 

[49erurtaza]

20 minutes ago, StevenK said:

John Lynch reported that Purdy should be able to throw around early, mid June. This is going to be interesting. Hope they aren’t rushing him back! 

Which has been the timeline. 3 months after surgery he can start throwing. He's just stayed the course. But based on how his recovery goes can be 2-4 months from when he starts throwing to being cleared to play. So sometime between August-October, he will be cleared potentially. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by 49erurtaza

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 hour ago, 49erurtaza said:

Which has been the timeline. 3 months after surgery he can start throwing. He's just stayed the course. But based on how his recovery goes can be 2-4 months from when he starts throwing to being cleared to play. So sometime between August-October, he will be cleared potentially. 

Yeah, starting to throw in June means nothing as he is not going to get fully cleared until early to mid August at the earliest. 

[Chrissooner49er]

16 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, starting to throw in June means nothing as he is not going to get fully cleared until early to mid August at the earliest. 

Didn't he already say he has been throwing? But with his left arm? Hope he was actually serious about that. It would be very cool. 

[NinerNation21]

22 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Didn't he already say he has been throwing? But with his left arm? Hope he was actually serious about that. It would be very cool. 

I think from what we know about Purdy so far, he was absolutely serious. I'm willing to bet he has probably ramped up his playbook/situational studying during this time since he can't throw just yet. 

He might know the playbook better than Shanny at this point.