2024 NFL Draft Discussion

[Mazrimiv]

I would not be surprised to see GB take a RB as early as RD2.  I would just be surprised to see that RB be Allen.

[spilltray]

53 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

You thinking AJ Dillon swap out as early as round 3?

Think we could draft two RB and hold onto Aaron Jones.

I don't see the upside in holding on to Jones. Love what he's done but he's getting to the age where his injury struggles this season are likely to get worse. Sure maybe you let him play out next year, but you might as well draft his replacement too.

[NFLGURU]

I think they might take a shot at the FA RBs if they find a fit.  Jones can't stay healthy and Dillon is a strong candidate for sign and mail it in.  JMO.

You don't want to go into the draft hoping you find a RB and really having to get one.

They might not find a FA RB worth the price, but I won't be surprised if they look pretty hard at it.

[ThatJerkDave]

1 hour ago, ChaRisMa said:

You thinking AJ Dillon swap out as early as round 3?

Think we could draft two RB and hold onto Aaron Jones.

Haha! I was thinking just the opposite in the other thread. 😁 

I was thinking sign Dillon for 3 or 4 more seasons.  Let Jones play out his contract.  And pounce on the best Aaron Jones type back that meets value.  Give the new back an AJ Dillon kind of rookie season to get him ready to hit the ground running when Jones is no longer on the team.  

 

 

I also think that RB may be on the table for early picks.  If we look at the roster, we have a ton of youth, and a lot of it is very promising.  Our biggest needs are probably Safety, Tackle, Guard, Running Back, and perhaps Corner (depending on what they feel about Stokes' recovery, Jaire is still only 26).  If we end up picking somewhere in the middle of the draft order, it is not completely out of line to think that none of our preferred value positions have the players available that we feel comfortable using early picks on.  Maybe drop the positional value logic and go for a better graded RB rather than reaching early for a lesser graded Tackle.

[ChaRisMa]

1 hour ago, spilltray said:

I don't see the upside in holding on to Jones. Love what he's done but he's getting to the age where his injury struggles this season are likely to get worse. Sure maybe you let him play out next year, but you might as well draft his replacement too.

Jones is still a legitimate playmaker. I agree he’s not worth the 12 million investment next year. We do want to keep cap space up, and I would have to offer Jones 8 to return, max. I think that’s fair market leaning favorably towards Jones because that market stinks to be a part of.

We can get a Jones replacement and a Dillon replacement, while holding Jones in rotation, using him most when he’s hot because when he’s hot he’s a Top 10 RB. 

Then we’re three deep with a young pair of mid rounders battling for PT.

Jones leaves in 2025 and we’re running pure rookie contracts at RB, with the odds in our favor that they are outperforming their contracts. That opens up a window to pay the absolutely no one we have in line to be paid so we get hottt free agent action.

[Kepler]

3 round draft sim with a couple trade backs in the 1st round. 

17. Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State

41. TreVeyon Henderson RB Ohio State

46. Kris Jenkins DT Michigan

48. Sedrick Van Pran OC Georgia

80. Calen Bullock S USC

82. Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma

[beekay414]

3 hours ago, Mazrimiv said:

I would not be surprised to see GB take a RB as early as RD2.  I would just be surprised to see that RB be Allen.

Allen is Dillon tho without the pass blocking refinement. Well, he's a more explosive Dillon tbqh. I think he's going to be insanely high on our board but I didn't want to say it because he's a Badger.

[Mazrimiv]

I assume you mean Allen is what Dillon was supposed to be.

[spilltray]

1 hour ago, ChaRisMa said:

Jones is still a legitimate playmaker. I agree he’s not worth the 12 million investment next year. We do want to keep cap space up, and I would have to offer Jones 8 to return, max. I think that’s fair market leaning favorably towards Jones because that market stinks to be a part of.

We can get a Jones replacement and a Dillon replacement, while holding Jones in rotation, using him most when he’s hot because when he’s hot he’s a Top 10 RB. 

Then we’re three deep with a young pair of mid rounders battling for PT.

Jones leaves in 2025 and we’re running pure rookie contracts at RB, with the odds in our favor that they are outperforming their contracts. That opens up a window to pay the absolutely no one we have in line to be paid so we get hottt free agent action.

Jones is a 17 mil cap hit next year with 12 dead money if he's cut and a bunch of money pushed out. I don't think you are going to get him to take another pay cut without adding more years. I'd rather take on that dead money now than having cap hits in 25-26-27 for him.

I'd also argue that it's not a guarantee he will still be that guy in addition to having questions about his ability to stay on the field. The kinds of things that kept him off the field this year are normal for older RB. Do you keep him at his current number or cut him? Either way it's only next year and if you see a guy who can potentially replace him, take him now either way. If you keep Jones you could really use an insurance policy plus it's better to have the next guy in a year too early rather than a year too late.

[ChaRisMa]

4 minutes ago, spilltray said:

Jones is a 17 mil cap hit next year with 12 dead money if he's cut and a bunch of money pushed out. I don't think you are going to get him to take another pay cut without adding more years. I'd rather take on that dead money now than having cap hits in 25-26-27 for him.

I'd also argue that it's not a guarantee he will still be that guy in addition to having questions about his ability to stay on the field. The kinds of things that kept him off the field this year are normal for older RB. Do you keep him at his current number or cut him? Either way it's only next year and if you see a guy who can potentially replace him, take him now either way. If you keep Jones you could really use an insurance policy plus it's better to have the next guy in a year too early rather than a year too late.

Forget about the contract bonuses, etc. His salary for the year is 12.1 Mil including bonuses. It’s a question of is he worth 12 next year?….Not to anyone in the league after this injury riddled season. So his pay next year is going down no matter whom he plays for. We’ll have the first opportunity to negotiate prior to cutting him. We can honestly say as long as he’s healthy he’s the feature guy and he can maybe earn another contract elsewhere if all goes well. Meanwhile we’ll develop the next Jones/Williams combo.

[spilltray]

3 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Forget about the contract bonuses, etc. His salary for the year is 12.1 Mil including bonuses. It’s a question of is he worth 12 next year?….Not to anyone in the league after this injury riddled season. So his pay next year is going down no matter whom he plays for. We’ll have the first opportunity to negotiate prior to cutting him. We can honestly say as long as he’s healthy he’s the feature guy and he can maybe earn another contract elsewhere if all goes well. Meanwhile we’ll develop the next Jones/Williams combo.

There is a good chance that yes another team would pay him more because most likely he would get more than a 1 year deal with a signing bonus. I would bet on a 3 year deal.

[Old Guy]

6 minutes ago, ChaRisMa said:

Forget about the contract bonuses, etc. His salary for the year is 12.1 Mil including bonuses. It’s a question of is he worth 12 next year?….Not to anyone in the league after this injury riddled season. So his pay next year is going down no matter whom he plays for. We’ll have the first opportunity to negotiate prior to cutting him. We can honestly say as long as he’s healthy he’s the feature guy and he can maybe earn another contract elsewhere if all goes well. Meanwhile we’ll develop the next Jones/Williams combo.

Cut the 12 in half and I'm in on Jones next year over Dillon at any amount. 

[Packerraymond]

23 minutes ago, spilltray said:

Jones is a 17 mil cap hit next year with 12 dead money if he's cut and a bunch of money pushed out. I don't think you are going to get him to take another pay cut without adding more years. I'd rather take on that dead money now than having cap hits in 25-26-27 for him.

I'd also argue that it's not a guarantee he will still be that guy in addition to having questions about his ability to stay on the field. The kinds of things that kept him off the field this year are normal for older RB. Do you keep him at his current number or cut him? Either way it's only next year and if you see a guy who can potentially replace him, take him now either way. If you keep Jones you could really use an insurance policy plus it's better to have the next guy in a year too early rather than a year too late.

This team will compete next year, time to stop thinking rebuild. What are you going to use 5m on that's more valuable than Aaron Jones?

Don't extend him, just keep him. If Bakh will restructure, keep him too. 

Going into the draft without Jones and Bakh mean big holes at RB and LT, going in with both means letting the board fall to you and not panicking to pull the trigger early.

[Packerraymond]

6 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Cut the 12 in half and I'm in on Jones next year over Dillon at any amount. 

Jones will cost the Packers 12m next year whether playing for another team or living on Mars. It's unavoidable like Rodgers last off-season. 17m on the roster.

[CWood21]

24 minutes ago, spilltray said:

Jones is a 17 mil cap hit next year with 12 dead money if he's cut and a bunch of money pushed out. I don't think you are going to get him to take another pay cut without adding more years. I'd rather take on that dead money now than having cap hits in 25-26-27 for him.

It'd almost certainly be him taking a haircut.  Last offseason, he took a $5M paycut.  Figure the same for this year, and that puts his cap hit at a more manageable $12.7M cap hit.  And it leaves you with $6.6M in dead cap next offseason when those void years hit.  For me, that's reasonable.   That'd be the 3rd highest cap hit of all the RBs in 2024 as of now.