Random Thoughts - In season 2023

[dll2000]

I didn’t start the new time capsules thread because it’s been a traumatic start to year.  I kinda knew it was going to start sideways with all the Oline issues late in camp.  

Anyway better late then never. 

My thought is how the heck do you get away with this?  There are presumably cameras everywhere. Lakeshore drive is only road out and Lake Michigan is on right.   Did they load them on a barge? 

Also, I literally get 2 to 3 scam calls, texts or emails a day.  What is with so many thieves in society at moment?  Have we had a total moral breakdown?  

Is it just whatever you can get away with and nobody feels bad or wrong for stealing otherwise? 

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

My guess would be onto a trailer, flat or box, and then just get out with everyone else.  There are a ton of trucks heading in and out after events, and you can exit Waldron, 18th, McFettridge, OR through the lots into McCormick place and then 31st.   If you just look official enough or tired enough I have found you can get (sometimes by mistake) into all kinds of places.  A guy that used to work with me would love it when I would BS our way into/out of places like McCormick just by saying **** like "yo man, we gotta get through, we're flexplay and they're waiting" and some bored guard would just wave you through.  Accidentally got stuck in a completely empty hall at McCormick and had no way out until some janitor just wandered in.  

Just had the weirdest theft luck this past month. We accidentally left the tailgate on our truck open-not unlocked WIDE open-overnight with stuff like a toolbag and jumper/inflator sitting right in plain sight, and the only hassle was from a squirrel who got into my granola bar, and then same week I had someone run by and steal a drill out of the same trunk while I was RIGHT THERE loading lumber,  up in MKE at a home depot. The truly weird thing is the drill had just melted it's brushes and was just sitting there to cool as I was at Home Depot to buy a new drill to finish our project.  Didn't have a battery either so hope the fast little  jagoff had to buy a battery to make sparks with my busted drill.

My clients are mostly wealthy, and I have definitely noticed some changes in spending/trying to rip you off over the last couple years. During COVIDtimes everyone was spending huge as they mostly have businesses and lots of passive wealth and many of those did very very well through Covid, and I work in an outdoor industry so people wanted to be outside (yay!).  For instance, the entire time I've been in business I almost average about 4 very big projects through winter, these are things that take weeks and lots of planning and the bill is usually lovely and large.  In 2021 I had 18 of those and was absolutely run ragged (and screwed up more than ever either by own mistakes or upstream issues)  In the last couple years once the markets cooled a lot of people have either gotten out over their skis a bit and are now suddenly very cheap, or-worse-they're constantly trying to scam/not pay for things.  Had someone do a chargeback for 5 figures this summer, which was a first, but also a ton of people just not wanting to pay bills or going silent.  I have a customer who is a collections attorney who is always happy to write scary letters for me, which is a blessing sometimes.  It is truly bizarre when a literal hedge fund manager plays poor with you after adding a ton of things their project.  For some people (traders are the worst) they seem genuinely confused when you insist on getting paid when they already have your help or products, like it does not compute for them until there are consequences.  

I think people are mostly about the same on average, we just have infinitely more ways to wirness/record/share bad behavior, but there's just a whole lot more people crowding around. 

[blkwdw13]

He is a new image for you @BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW

[blkwdw13]

this looks good 

[Epyon]

Some random thoughts/predictions post chiefs game for the rest of the year:  These thoughts are all meant to be taken independently of one another

1. Tyson Bagent is the starting QB on 10/15. He'll have 10 days to prepare as starter following the Thurs night game vs Washington

2. We are going to put up  under 24 points on Denver.

3. This isn't yet the nightmare scenario. The nightmare scenario is that Bagent is good enough to win~4-5 games and we pick ~5th.... you then have to debate on selling the farm to move up for a QB (probably not even the top qb), rolling with Bagent (who in this scenario is quality backup/game manager tier at best), or taking the 3rd-4th best qb in the draft. 

4. If we want to go beyond nightmare scenario into the actual hellscape: Tyson Bagent starts under 6 games, but wins more than half of them. We still trade up massively to get caleb williams, he refuses to play for our franchise, and Drake Maye goes on to be an elite QB, and Tyson Bagent's few wins where enough to save Getsy's job.

5. Back to reality... The entire staff is currently set to be fired in the offseason, and I'm telling them that now if I'm Warren. They have to EARN their job back.

6. Ryan Poles is also getting fired at the end of the season. In Two seasons between draft and FA, his only two "stud" players are DJ Moore and Roschon Johnson. You CANNOT build through the draft if you don't draft a damn difference maker.

7. CJ Stroud is currently playing really really really damn well. It's far too early to be definitive on this, but if he ends up being a legit QB1 in this league and we punted on drafting him, that alone is fireable for Poles, much as grabbing Mitch over Mahomes was for Pace. YOU CANNOT GET THE QB POSITION WRONG AS A GM IN THIS LEAGUE AND SURVIVE.  Literally his job to make those evaluations. I'd add, that Bryce Young results are also  super early, but trending entirely the wrong direction for the Carolina GM... They literally gave us 2x 1sts and DJ Moore to pick what looks like the wrong guy....

8. Tyson Bagent is the staff's only hope to keep their job. Fields is cooked.

9. We are going to be sellers at the trade deadline.  Jackson, Herbert, J Johnson, Foreman the likely guys I'd be moving.

10. I will think of a 10th prediction some time after I click post. (that is my 10th prediction)

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

7 hours ago, blkwdw13 said:

He is a new image for you @BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW

I like the dreary existentialist sci fi vibe.  Bear Face Up Arrow at this one. 

[Ty21]

6 hours ago, Epyon said:

CJ Stroud is currently playing really really really damn well. It's far too early to be definitive on this, but if he ends up being a legit QB1 in this league and we punted on drafting him, that alone is fireable for Poles, much as grabbing Mitch over Mahomes was for Pace

Houston is a healthier place for a young qb than here. If Stroud is thrown to the wolves here, he’s worse off. The only time Getsy succeeds at calling plays is when he’s not the one calling plays. 

[Ty21]

https://reddit.com/r/AFCNorthMemeWar/s/9uddSdMjlx
 

remember, it could always be worse. We could be paying a rapist $230m gtd to do **** like this 

[beardown3231]

7 hours ago, Epyon said:

Some random thoughts/predictions post chiefs game for the rest of the year:  These thoughts are all meant to be taken independently of one another

1. Tyson Bagent is the starting QB on 10/15. He'll have 10 days to prepare as starter following the Thurs night game vs Washington

2. We are going to put up  under 24 points on Denver.

3. This isn't yet the nightmare scenario. The nightmare scenario is that Bagent is good enough to win~4-5 games and we pick ~5th.... you then have to debate on selling the farm to move up for a QB (probably not even the top qb), rolling with Bagent (who in this scenario is quality backup/game manager tier at best), or taking the 3rd-4th best qb in the draft. 

4. If we want to go beyond nightmare scenario into the actual hellscape: Tyson Bagent starts under 6 games, but wins more than half of them. We still trade up massively to get caleb williams, he refuses to play for our franchise, and Drake Maye goes on to be an elite QB, and Tyson Bagent's few wins where enough to save Getsy's job.

5. Back to reality... The entire staff is currently set to be fired in the offseason, and I'm telling them that now if I'm Warren. They have to EARN their job back.

6. Ryan Poles is also getting fired at the end of the season. In Two seasons between draft and FA, his only two "stud" players are DJ Moore and Roschon Johnson. You CANNOT build through the draft if you don't draft a damn difference maker.

7. CJ Stroud is currently playing really really really damn well. It's far too early to be definitive on this, but if he ends up being a legit QB1 in this league and we punted on drafting him, that alone is fireable for Poles, much as grabbing Mitch over Mahomes was for Pace. YOU CANNOT GET THE QB POSITION WRONG AS A GM IN THIS LEAGUE AND SURVIVE.  Literally his job to make those evaluations. I'd add, that Bryce Young results are also  super early, but trending entirely the wrong direction for the Carolina GM... They literally gave us 2x 1sts and DJ Moore to pick what looks like the wrong guy....

8. Tyson Bagent is the staff's only hope to keep their job. Fields is cooked.

9. We are going to be sellers at the trade deadline.  Jackson, Herbert, J Johnson, Foreman the likely guys I'd be moving.

10. I will think of a 10th prediction some time after I click post. (that is my 10th prediction)

I don't know how serious you are or aren't being by RE: #4 the Bears won't trade up for Williams if they aren't sure Williams won't play for them, and if he'll play for anyone which he will, no team picking ahead of them is trading out of that pick. Why would Minnesota, Vegas, Arizona or NYJ trade away the chance at the best QB to come out since Luck? RE: #6 I think you're giving Roschon a ton of undeserved due calling him a stud

[dll2000]

Wheels can come off on a football team in a hurry.  

I had mostly, well all, winning teams over 20 year span about 13 or so total, but my last season was a disaster.  We won 2 games. 

It is HARD to keep things together when everyone is looking for reasons why you suck and nobody wants to look in a mirror or reality.   And in reality it isn’t one thing.  It is a lot of different things.  

It was a humbling experience to go through.  

[dll2000]

Here we go again. 

[chisoxguy7]

The biggest realization for me this morning is even if Poles or Warren correctly identifies that Eberflus needs to go... is there really even a benefit to firing him midseason? Who do you promote to interim HC? Getsy? Yeah right.

We are literally in the 2022 Colts/Jeff Saturday situation. We would legitimately be better off firing Eberflus now and bringing in an outside voice to at least see what he has to offer before giving him a 4 year contract.

[beardown3231]

4 minutes ago, chisoxguy7 said:

The biggest realization for me this morning is even if Poles or Warren correctly identifies that Eberflus needs to go... is there really even a benefit to firing him midseason? Who do you promote to interim HC? Getsy? Yeah right.

We are literally in the 2022 Colts/Jeff Saturday situation. We would legitimately be better off firing Eberflus now and bringing in an outside voice to at least see what he has to offer before giving him a 4 year contract.

No, they'd be better off keeping Eberflus since the goal right now should be the #1 pick

[chisoxguy7]

8 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

No, they'd be better off keeping Eberflus since the goal right now should be the #1 pick

I understand where you're coming from but this mentality corresponds to a belief that this roster has talent that a new coach would elevate leading to wins... not sure at this point that is the case.

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, Ty21 said:

Houston is a healthier place for a young qb than here. If Stroud is thrown to the wolves here, he’s worse off. The only time Getsy succeeds at calling plays is when he’s not the one calling plays. 

Honestly Slowik is an OC I am going to keep my eye on for the potential HC. He was the passing game coordinator, though he is starting low on the list. Dude is just so new to coaching he has to be at the bottom of the list, but seeing him go up the ladder so quickly and seemingly successfully is promising. Especially being under Shanahan the last several years. Likely a few years too early but still. 

Dude went from defensive assistant to offensive assistant to passing game specialist to passing game coordinator to now a playcalling OC with a lackluster cast around their rookie QB shows he at least now is doing well. We will see if he can continue success with Stroud and this group.