Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[Forge]

Just now, JIllg said:

Dallas is about the only team in the same stratosphere when we're healthy according to every advanced metric. Getting them at home will be a big help.

I wish we would get to see Dak against one more good defense before the regular season is over. Miami would have been interesting if Phillips hadn't gotten hurt. 

Not to take away from anything Dak is done, but even the eagles have a suspect defense if everyone is being really honest. I would have liked to see him play another good defense before the end of it. Dak really playing at an unbelievable level and McCarthy made some big changes in their gameplans since the bye week, but since then the schedule hasn't exactly been a murderer's row of defenses. 

[JIllg]

47 minutes ago, Forge said:

I wish we would get to see Dak against one more good defense before the regular season is over. Miami would have been interesting if Phillips hadn't gotten hurt. 

Not to take away from anything Dak is done, but even the eagles have a suspect defense if everyone is being really honest. I would have liked to see him play another good defense before the end of it. Dak really playing at an unbelievable level and McCarthy made some big changes in their gameplans since the bye week, but since then the schedule hasn't exactly been a murderer's row of defenses. 

All of this is very true. At least the Bills are fighting hard on that side of the ball even if they're understaffed 

[757-NINER]

The whole debate about how good Brock is should come to a complete halt IF/WHEN we end the the season with three 1,000 yard receivers. 

BA is over a 1,000 already. 

Kittle is 189 yards away from 1,000

Deebo is 261 yards away from 1,000

In what is essential a run-first offense, that should and would be the biggest testament to Purdy and him taking this passing offense to unfathomable heights.

Jimmy never came close to achieving two 1,000 yard receivers, let alone three.

To put this in perspective, Brock has 359 pass attempts this year. He hasn't missed a single game. Cousins is sitting at 311 pass attempts and hasn't played since Week 8. The absurdity of his efficiency is just something we haven't really seen tbh. This isn't a pass-centric, Greatest Show On Turf type of offense. But he's elevated the passing game in a way I think very few ppl outside this fanbase really understand. 

Like, if you watched Jimmy G every week for four years. Then you see what Brock looks like operating in the same offense, it's like you just want to smack the **** of ANYONE who doesn't grasp the reality of the situation.

Brock Purdy is playing at Top 3 QB level. Like easily in the conversation as MVP. That's not just happenstance nor coincidence.

Don't know if its sustainable. But performing like this in only year two, you have to imagine it won't be much he hasn't seen by year 4-5.

Edited December 13, 2023 by 757-NINER

[GW21]

lol at least no one is going to take Cam serious with whatever that is he’s wearing.

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by GW21

[jonnguy2015]

 

[burlow]

18 minutes ago, jonnguy2015 said:

 

Shanahan taking that arm fatigue personally.  Cant wear out if we dont throw it.  (I know Prudy did not get the arm figititis)

[JIllg]

https://twitter.com/KevinCole___/status/1732764381950169374/photo/1

 

This does a better job of stripping context out than PFF grades IMO. And when you divide by # of plays, you still get at Brock’s ludicrous efficiency.

[GW21]

 

[JIllg]

21 minutes ago, GW21 said:

 

Brock's issue is that we saw what the offense was like prior to him and that the team was very good before he was here. Most awesome quarterbacks grow as their supporting casts become excellent and therefore no one can see what the team is like with mediocre to good QB play and the same cast because it just isn't worth it most of the time to keep backups that can operate the offense at even a functional level once your tier 1 qb goes down. It's the old "We don't practice ****ed" mentality.

Now, the supporting cast argument didn't hurt Mahomes - Andy Reid and Kelce and Tyreek got ALEX SMITH to be a deep ball throwing 4000 yards passing boi - but Alex also never had any playoff success for the Chiefs. But you are seeing with Browning with Chase and healthy Higgins (and current Mahomes with very little) that even the tier 1 QBs need great players around them and a quality scheme. And that all awesome offensive production is a collection of factors.

Dak running the very vanilla west coast 1st day install stuff prior to the full playbook being unleashed was much, much worse than current Dak. And Dak has an awesome cast. Just about the best offensive line in football (along with Philly and Buffalo), a very good, versatile set of weapons. And the playcalling has gotten folks open at a quite high rate since the first few games. That's not to say Dak hasn't been awesome - he's really great this year. It's just that full context for these things is difficult and that the conversation that often happens is laughably shallow.

Edited December 13, 2023 by JIllg
Alex Smith inaccuracy

[JIllg]

Also, for more context

Alex Smith 2017 8.0 YPA to 2018 Patrick Mahomes 8.8 YPA (about the jump I was expecting if Brock was a franchise QB)

Jimmy G 2022 7.9 YPA (7.97 YPA with CMC) to 2023 Brock Purdy 9.9 YPA (Nuts)

Edited December 13, 2023 by JIllg

[NinerNation21]

Brock unlocked BA's full potential and BA gave Brock a trusted downfield threat - it's a symbiotic relationship where they each made each other better. 

That was the missing piece from our offense. Kittle and Deebo are doing the exact same things now as they did before Brock. But Aiyuk has taken it to the next level because he finally has a QB who can hit him deep. 

Yes, Brock gets elevated from his playmakers but he also elevates them, too. 

[GW21]

7 hours ago, JIllg said:

Brock's issue is that we saw what the offense was like prior to him and that the team was very good before he was here. Most awesome quarterbacks grow as their supporting casts become excellent and therefore no one can see what the team is like with mediocre to good QB play and the same cast because it just isn't worth it most of the time to keep backups that can operate the offense at even a functional level once your tier 1 qb goes down. It's the old "We don't practice ****ed" mentality.

Now, the supporting cast argument didn't hurt Mahomes - Andy Reid and Kelce and Tyreek got ALEX SMITH to be a deep ball throwing 4000 yards passing boi - but Alex also never had any playoff success for the Chiefs. But you are seeing with Browning with Chase and healthy Higgins (and current Mahomes with very little) that even the tier 1 QBs need great players around them and a quality scheme. And that all awesome offensive production is a collection of factors.

Dak running the very vanilla west coast 1st day install stuff prior to the full playbook being unleashed was much, much worse than current Dak. And Dak has an awesome cast. Just about the best offensive line in football (along with Philly and Buffalo), a very good, versatile set of weapons. And the playcalling has gotten folks open at a quite high rate since the first few games. That's not to say Dak hasn't been awesome - he's really great this year. It's just that full context for these things is difficult and that the conversation that often happens is laughably shallow.

Jimmy going to Vegas and ****ting the bed probably didn’t help Brock’s case either if we’re being honest.

[49ersfan]

Is 2016 Matt Ryan a realistic comp for Purdy? Is that type of play sustainable? 

[JIllg]

36 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

Is 2016 Matt Ryan a realistic comp for Purdy? Is that type of play sustainable? 

2006 Matt Ryan is a really close comp statistically - both made their case on incredible efficiency (EPA|YPA|ANY/A|you name it) with a smaller number of attempts than almost any other modern MVP candidate. I think Brock’s receiving supporting cast is inevitably going to get worse than this year.

It’s damn hard to keep an all time great running back with the receiving/running versatility that leads to awesome offense like CMC (Faulk and Craig were also engines for all-time offenses). He’s going to age out in a year or 3 and his contract ends about the same time. Same for the all-around excellence of Kittle. Really hard to find a guy that can be a strong blocker against edge defenders, serve as a vertical threat, and can be your second or third best separator as your TE. He’s on the back end of his age curve that could have the bottom drop out at any time due to physical wear and tear. We’ve got about 1 more year that we can expect those two at max power. And even that’s depending on injuries. 

At the same time, the offensive line can definitely improve. Trent will be similarly damn near impossible to replace, but we have among the cheapest offenses in the NFL because we have the absolutely cheapest and least useful players at the other 4 spots. I guarantee they are already looking to replace at least Burford. I think that they’d also prefer to have a much better run blocking right tackle so that we can be more two handed in the running game. And I think with Brock, Aiyuk, and a bit of support you’ll have a productive offense. The quarterback and vertically threatening all-round receiver that can win outside are the standard pieces that offenses are built on. It’s just that you won’t have the other-worldly offense that you have this year and possibly next year. Those offenses are rare for a reason. 

[oldman9er]