Is there an argument for Baker Mayfield #1 ?

[MWil23]

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’ll ask again, who was the last qb to bust because they were too short?

I still don't know whether this is a correlation or a causation. Do short QBs bust because they're short or are there so few short QBs drafted in the first because they're the exception to the rule/an outlier, so their sample size is so small there's no correlation whatsoever? 

Do they bust because of the beating that they can take and that their bodies don't hold up? Is it because often times their pocket presence is poor? Is it a combination of all of them?

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I get the JFF parallels, but Manziel isn’t out of the league because he’s bad at football.

No argument there, although I still think that what made JFF so special in college was never going to translate to the NFL. Running around, improvising, playing outside of the established system, winning with his legs and throwing up jump balls to Mike Evans, running the read option...I never got the fascination with him in the NFL where linebackers are just as athletic and weigh 50 pounds more than him.

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

As far as the antics, is “rubs me the wrong way” a legit concern? I feel like that’s one step away from “I don’t like his t shirt” or “he drinks light beer”.  How relevant is not being a doosh to being a good QB?

For some, it's only a preference thing. For others (like me), it's a warning sign of potential trouble ahead. Are there other red flags? In and of themselves, these things aren't a big deal in a vacuum. Plenty of 21/22 year olds make poor decisions drinking in excess. Plenty have foul mouths. Plenty have trouble wearing their emotions on their shoulder and having it "DRIVE" them.

At the same point, it does raise questions like "Can you get inside his head? How's his huddle presence? Can this guy lead by example? Does he like partying too much? What will he do when we give him $20 million guaranteed? 

Along with the physical "limitations", which he does have, those are scary to some, if not many. To others, they couldn't care less and give examples like Cam Newton and Phillip Rivers.

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

As far as him on an 0-16 team, I sure hope we never find out.

As much as I absolutely despise Baker, I think that he could bring in a totally different mentality and raise other people's expectations. The lack of professionalism and effort I saw down the stretch from A LOT of guys was nothing short of embarrassing. 

[cortes02]

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

16 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’ll ask again, who was the last qb to bust because they were too short?

I still don't know whether this is a correlation or a causation. Do short QBs bust because they're short or are there so few short QBs drafted in the first because they're the exception to the rule/an outlier, so their sample size is so small there's no correlation whatsoever? 

Do they bust because of the beating that they can take and that their bodies don't hold up? Is it because often times their pocket presence is poor? Is it a combination of all of them?

I agree with everything that MWil23 stated in regards to not knowing whether height is or isn't a factor of bust rate.  There's just no way to truly know one way or the other.  All I know is that It's a rarity for short QB's to have long term success in the NFL.  Just like it's a rarity for QB's 6'7" or taller to have long term success as well.

Peace!!!

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

14 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

I still don't know whether this is a correlation or a causation. Do short QBs bust because they're short or are there so few short QBs drafted in the first because they're the exception to the rule/an outlier, so their sample size is so small there's no correlation whatsoever? 

Do they bust because of the beating that they can take and that their bodies don't hold up? Is it because often times their pocket presence is poor? Is it a combination of all of them?

I think guys like Keenum, Brees, Wilson, Vick, etc have all shown you CAN compete and hold up at this size, IF you have the skills and ability.

Quote

No argument there, although I still think that what made JFF so special in college was never going to translate to the NFL. Running around, improvising, playing outside of the established system, winning with his legs and throwing up jump balls to Mike Evans, running the read option...I never got the fascination with him in the NFL where linebackers are just as athletic and weigh 50 pounds more than him.

Agreed, he was going to have to learn to play from the pocket.

Quote

For some, it's only a preference thing. For others (like me), it's a warning sign of potential trouble ahead. Are there other red flags? In and of themselves, these things aren't a big deal in a vacuum. Plenty of 21/22 year olds make poor decisions drinking in excess. Plenty have foul mouths. Plenty have trouble wearing their emotions on their shoulder and having it "DRIVE" them.

So which is it, a problem or some immaturity out of a 22 year old?  I think any fan that states anything either way is simply guessing.  Apparently the warning signs were there with Manziel if the Browns (Haslam) had cared to pay attention. I’m assuming they’ll be there with Baker if they look for them.  You have to go with that. I personally prefer the kid you don’t have to wonder about.

Quote

At the same point, it does raise questions like "Can you get inside his head? How's his huddle presence? Can this guy lead by example? Does he like partying too much? What will he do when we give him $20 million guaranteed? 

All valid questions, but I think most of those questions apply to any 22 year old.

Quote

Along with the physical "limitations", which he does have, those are scary to some, if not many. To others, they couldn't care less and give examples like Cam Newton and Phillip Rivers.

He doesn’t have any physical limitations that I see.  Height isn’t terribly important and he’s got plenty of arm, athleticism, etc.

Quote

As much as I absolutely despise Baker, I think that he could bring in a totally different mentality and raise other people's expectations. The lack of professionalism and effort I saw down the stretch from A LOT of guys was nothing short of embarrassing. 

I do agree with this.  The general malaise from this team for YEARS has been awful.  

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 minute ago, cortes02 said:

I agree with everything that MWil23 stated in regards to not knowing whether height is or isn't a factor of bust rate.  There's just no way to truly know one way or the other.  All I know is that It's a rarity for short QB's to have long term success in the NFL.  Just like it's a rarity for QB's 6'7" or taller to have long term success as well.

Peace!!!

Then why are we holding it against him if we’re not even sure it matters? 

It’s a rarity that any QB succeeds, regardless of height.

[Aztec Hammer]

Short QBs bust because it's a severe limitation that requires those who wish to be successful to have very special qualities in other areas, and that's just not a common occurrence.

Drew Brees has otherworldly accuracy and an extreme mental acuity for the game and finding passing lanes.

Russell Wilson is a special athlete with mobility skills that are extremely rare for th position. This has allowed him to navigate in and out of the pocket in his own unique way to find a passing style that works.

Let's be real here. Who else is there that's 6ft or less that has been a great one in the modern era, and worthy of the #1 overall selection?

Chicks don't want to admit it either, but size matters.

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think guys like Keenum, Brees, Wilson, Vick, etc have all shown you CAN compete and hold up at this size, IF you have the skills and ability.

Very true, but I'd also argue that Keenum was undrafted, Brees was a 2nd rounder, and Wilson was a 3rd rounder. Michael Vick is the only 1st rounder here and had a lot of success but still only played in 16 games once in his entire career. Again, it's hard to speculate, because of how few smaller QB's there are, so it's an imperfect system. Are they getting hurt because of their SIZE or their style of play? Plenty of bigger QBs get hurt too. 

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So which is it, a problem or some immaturity out of a 22 year old?  I think any fan that states anything either way is simply guessing.  

I 100% agree with you here. I'm not conducting an interview and I don't know any of these guys aside from what I see on the television. That said, this is also a forum, in January, and how else am I going to pass the time? 

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Apparently the warning signs were there with Manziel if the Browns (Haslam) had cared to pay attention. I’m assuming they’ll be there with Baker if they look for them.  You have to go with that. I personally prefer the kid you don’t have to wonder about.

That's why I personally would go with Darnold, aside from lots of other reasons (big arm, accurate, pocket presence, athleticism, age, upside, etc.). I like his attitude, or at least what I can see. Again, fair or not, that's the perception that I have. I don't know ANY of these guys.

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

All valid questions, but I think most of those questions apply to any 22 year old.

Yeah, but we have also seen Darnold take a pounding and still stand in the pocket and delivery quality NFL throws, respond to adversity positively, etc. Some would say the same with Mayfield but many would not.

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

He doesn’t have any physical limitations that I see.  Height isn’t terribly important and he’s got plenty of arm, athleticism, etc.

The "physical limitations" was only height, and I put limitations in quotations for that reason.

 

[Aztec Hammer]

Skip to 4:20. The second half, i.e. everything after Georgia were able to go in at halftime and adjust to the gadget Sooner offense.

Can someone please point me out one single positive play from the pocket that suggests a successful NFL QB. It's a hot mess. As soon as Georgia put the clamps on the funky stuff and forced him to play regular pocket QB against a competent NFL style pass rush and coverage for once, he was lost.

- Trying to QB run or escape the pocket at the first sign of pressure.

- Eyes dropping and like a headless chicken bailing into other pressure.

- One time he hangs in the pocket, under little pressure he gets spooked because of how the third quarter went, and sails a nothing ball for the easy interception.

I counted literally one positive passing play in the second half that could give you hope for his pro prospects. The TD pass when he extended the play and got outside the pocket. Some Russell Wilson in that.

Everything else was a hot mess. I don't want to hear that it's because he was facing some intense pass rush or anything like that. That second half and that necessary style of play is what will be asked of him every week in the pros.

I wouldn't touch him anywhere in the first round, let alone at #1.

[cortes02]

18 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

21 minutes ago, cortes02 said:

I agree with everything that MWil23 stated in regards to not knowing whether height is or isn't a factor of bust rate.  There's just no way to truly know one way or the other.  All I know is that It's a rarity for short QB's to have long term success in the NFL.  Just like it's a rarity for QB's 6'7" or taller to have long term success as well.

Peace!!!

Then why are we holding it against him if we’re not even sure it matters? 

It’s a rarity that any QB succeeds, regardless of height.

I understand what your saying but if we don't know either way, how can you "not" hold it against him?  Especially with such an incredibly small sample size of short QB's that have succeeded long term.  It is rare for any QB to succeed but it's even more rare for a short QB to succeed according to history.  Some Love Mayfield while others hate him and others will be swayed one way or the other the closer draft day gets here.  Like I said before, I just think he is the riskiest of all the QB's this year and would be surprised if the Browns new FO didn't go with a more traditional QB #1 overall.

Peace!!!

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Skip to 4:20. The second half, i.e. everything after Georgia were able to go in at halftime and adjust to the gadget Sooner offense.

Can someone please point me out one single positive play from the pocket that suggests a successful NFL QB. It's a hot mess. As soon as Georgia put the clamps on the funky stuff and forced him to play regular pocket QB against a competent NFL style pass rush and coverage for once, he was lost.

- Trying to QB run or escape the pocket at the first sign of pressure.

- Eyes dropping and like a headless chicken bailing into other pressure.

- One time he hangs in the pocket, under little pressure he gets spooked because of how the third quarter went, and sails a nothing ball for the easy interception.

I counted literally one positive passing play in the second half that could give you hope for his pro prospects. The TD pass when he extended the play and got outside the pocket. Some Russell Wilson in that.

Everything else was a hot mess. I don't want to hear that it's because he was facing some intense pass rush or anything like that. That second half and that necessary style of play is what will be asked of him every week in the pros.

I wouldn't touch him anywhere in the first round, let alone at #1.

I think we can say all QB’s have bad games, Darnold vs WSU, Rosen vs Arizon, most of Josh Allen’s college career....

I think overall he was head and shoulders better than any other COLLEGE QB this past season, statically elite throwing to all areas of the field for the entire season.

I get the doubts, I share them to some degree as well, but the kid played some incredible football and made some great throws.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

8 minutes ago, cortes02 said:

I understand what your saying but if we don't know either way, how can you "not" hold it against him?  Especially with such an incredibly small sample size of short QB's that have succeeded long term.  It is rare for any QB to succeed but it's even more rare for a short QB to succeed according to history.  Some Love Mayfield while others hate him and others will be swayed one way or the other the closer draft day gets here.  Like I said before, I just think he is the riskiest of all the QB's this year and would be surprised if the Browns new FO didn't go with a more traditional QB #1 overall.

Peace!!!

I think what is rarer than a short qb is a short qb who sees the field like he seems to and who has the arm that he does.

His size is somewhat an overblown issue imo. If he were 5’9 185 I’d be right there with you guys, but 6’3/8” and 215 is THAT small.

[Aztec Hammer]

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I think we can say all QB’s have bad games, Darnold vs WSU, Rosen vs Arizon, most of Josh Allen’s college career....

I think overall he was head and shoulders better than any other COLLEGE QB this past season, statically elite throwing to all areas of the field for the entire season.

I get the doubts, I share them to some degree as well, but the kid played some incredible football and made some great throws.

My problem is that I have little to no respect for the Big 12, and that every time I pop on a Mayfield game, he's making plays yes, but they are quite glaringly under no pressure and to wide open guys. It's like watching a practice session.

Then I watch any random Darnold or Rosen game and I'm so much more impressed by what I see.

Even the best Mayfield game for his fans to pick out, vs Ohio State the second time. With the 3TDs and no picks win. I watch that through an NFL lens and I'm not blown away. Then I watch Darnold's 'terrible' statistical game of no TDs, an INT and a couple fumbles and I'm seeing sideline dime after dime dropped in the bucket.

[Thomas5737]

7 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Even the best Mayfield game for his fans to pick out, vs Ohio State the second time. With the 3TDs and no picks win. I watch that through an NFL lens and I'm not blown away. Then I watch Darnold's 'terrible' statistical game of no TDs, an INT and a couple fumbles and I'm seeing sideline dime after dime dropped in the bucket.

Georgia and Ohio State defenses were ranked about the same. I understand that you watch Darnold and see greatness but he could have easily had 5 interceptions against the Buckeyes to go along with his 2 fumbles lost. Yeah he made some good throws and put up big yards but he could have realistically had 7 turnovers. Turnovers (he only had 3) were the difference in that game. He had almost 100 more passing yards than the Buckeyes had total yards. Buckeyes scored 21 of 24 points off of turnovers (only 2 were from Darnold) and the only USC score came off of a turnover.

He has some real skills and he keeps firing but he makes some risky throws and fumbles like crazy. That is just a little scary. Especially after the turnover crazy display we just saw from Kizer.

[Aztec Hammer]

7 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Georgia and Ohio State defenses were ranked about the same. I understand that you watch Darnold and see greatness but he could have easily had 5 interceptions against the Buckeyes to go along with his 2 fumbles lost. Yeah he made some good throws and put up big yards but he could have realistically had 7 turnovers. Turnovers (he only had 3) were the difference in that game. He had almost 100 more passing yards than the Buckeyes had total yards. Buckeyes scored 21 of 24 points off of turnovers (only 2 were from Darnold) and the only USC score came off of a turnover.

He has some real skills and he keeps firing but he makes some risky throws and fumbles like crazy. That is just a little scary. Especially after the turnover crazy display we just saw from Kizer.

I don't disagree that Darnold is a raw prospect, with a fumbling issue that needs correcting and a somewhat reckless (though I believe that's been an overstated narrative by the media) playstyle.

My original, bigger point was less about Darnold and more about Mayfield.

That second half against Georgia was atrocious. When faced with a competent pass rush and coverage the likes of which he has barely seen, he had no idea whatsoever how to handle it. To the point where he would hardly stay and attempt a single throw from the pocket, let alone complete one.

[Aztec Hammer]

With regards to Darnold and the potential for his early play to resemble the turnover machine that was Kizer, I definitely agree. I think that will be the case with any of him, Rosen and Mayfield if they were to play early.

I'm staunchly on board with drafting Darnold (I'd accept Rosen) and benching them immediately, whilst we go forward with a good, credible vet option. Alex Smith would be perfect.

[Mastercheddaar]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I’ll ask again, who was the last qb to bust because they were too short?

I get the JFF parallels, but Manziel isn’t out of the league because he’s bad at football.

As far as the antics, is “rubs me the wrong way” a legit concern? I feel like that’s one step away from “I don’t like his t shirt” or “he drinks light beer”.  How relevant is not being a doosh to being a good QB?

As far as him on an 0-16 team, I sure hope we never find out.

Question how many short QBs go undrafted?  Many QBs don't get drafted because of their size unless they have superior skill.

As for the antics, they should matter. Is the kid going to get in a bar fight? Is he going to quit when things get rough? Is he going to be a locker room issue? If he starts losing will he throw his team under the bus? Will he blame himself for his short comings and buckle down to learn the game? Is he the type of guy, veteran and rookie players alike will rally behind? What beer does he drink? (That last one is super important... lulz) 

I could see the argument for drafting Mayfield if his skill set on the field was vastly superior to all of the others. I feel, however, the other QBs are just as good as him if not better. We are sitting at #1. Do you honestly feel Mayfield is the best QB in this draft class? 

That is all

Mastercheddaar