Is there an argument for Baker Mayfield #1 ?

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

25 minutes ago, Mastercheddaar said:

Question how many short QBs go undrafted?  Many QBs don't get drafted because of their size unless they have superior skill.

Which it would appear he has.

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As for the antics, they should matter. Is the kid going to get in a bar fight? Is he going to quit when things get rough? Is he going to be a locker room issue? If he starts losing will he throw his team under the bus? Will he blame himself for his short comings and buckle down to learn the game? Is he the type of guy, veteran and rookie players alike will rally behind? What beer does he drink? (That last one is super important... lulz) 

Mayfield seems to have incredible “football character” by all reports. Those kind of things have never been in question for him. At least not any more than any other prospect.

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I could see the argument for drafting Mayfield if his skill set on the field was vastly superior to all of the others. I feel, however, the other QBs are just as good as him if not better. We are sitting at #1. Do you honestly feel Mayfield is the best QB in this draft class? 

That is all

Mastercheddaar

Do I? No, I like Darnold. I think there’s an arguement thay he is though. I think Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield all have an argument there.

What I don’t see is any way, shape or form is that he’s a bigger risk than a prospect who hasn’t even shown the ability to actually play the game well yet.

[Thomas5737]

54 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

With regards to Darnold and the potential for his early play to resemble the turnover machine that was Kizer, I definitely agree. I think that will be the case with any of him, Rosen and Mayfield if they were to play early.

I'm staunchly on board with drafting Darnold (I'd accept Rosen) and benching them immediately, whilst we go forward with a good, credible vet option. Alex Smith would be perfect.

I think the best prospect would be somewhere between Mayfield and Darnold. Mayfield probably doesn't take quite enough chances and Darnold takes too many. Both will need work at the NFL level but I'm not sitting the #1 overall pick no matter who it is. We just started a 2nd round QB as a rookie and while he was bad and didn't progress much if any throughout the season that hasn't soured me on the idea of putting what should be a future good or better QB into action right away and speeding up his progression. Only if I had a terrible offensive line would I sit the #1 overall QB. We are at least competent there so it is a good situation for a young QB to learn on the job.

If Mayfield or Rosen is better served to be starting in 2018 than Darnold maybe we go that route. It's a long term investment though so that would probably only be used as a tie breaker. It's just a guess though, no one thought Russell Wilson was gonna start or that Watson or Dak would bust out of the gates. Luck and Peyton delivered below the expectations as rookies. That is sometimes what rookie seasons are good for though, take the lumps as they progress and reap the future rewards.

[FGK]

https://twoqbs.com/qb-profiles/baker-mayfield-armchair-scouting-report

Some great stats in here:

 

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Over the course of the 2017 season, the Sooners faced off against five defenses ranked inside the top 16 of S&P+. Here is how he fared in those contests:

Split	Games	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	AYA
Top 16	5	20.0	29.4	68.0%	310.2	2.8	0.4	187.6	11.8
Other	9	20.6	28.6	72.0%	341.8	3.2	0.4	216.2	13.5

 

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If we look back at 2017 top 10 draft pick Patrick Mahomes, he had eight opponents in common with Mayfield during the 2016 collegiate season. Here is how they compared:

Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	AYA
Baker Mayfield	19.1	26.1	73.2%	291.4	3.0	0.8	200.7	12.2
Patrick Mahomes	30.3	46.4	65.2%	353.1	2.8	0.9	144.8	8.0

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I mentioned Wilson before, and he truly is the perfect comparison for Mayfield. Here is how they compared in their final seasons:

Player	Cmp	Att	Pct	YPA	TD Rate	INT Rate	AYA	Att	YPC
Baker Mayfield	285	404	70.5%	11.5	10.6%	1.5%	12.9	97	3.2
Russell Wilson	225	309	72.8%	10.3	10.7%	1.3%	11.8	79	4.3

Wilson is the more mobile athlete, but Mayfield managed to be the more efficient passer. Still, there are no other signal-callers this century, and probably ever, to accomplish what each of these players did. Both showed a tremendous ability to maximize touchdowns and limit turnovers, and were a little more advanced in age than their peers (Wilson was 23.1 years old).

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To put into perspective just how good he’s been, there have been only three seasons since 2000 where a quarterback has had a passing efficiency rating over 190. Mayfield has two of them. The other belongs to Russell Wilson, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. For passers with over 1,000 career attempts, only Mayfield and Marcus Mariota have passer ratings over 170. It would not be a stretch to call Mayfield the most efficient collegiate passer of all time.

 

[Aztec Hammer]

11 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

I think the best prospect would be somewhere between Mayfield and Darnold. Mayfield probably doesn't take quite enough chances and Darnold takes too many. Both will need work at the NFL level but I'm not sitting the #1 overall pick no matter who it is. We just started a 2nd round QB as a rookie and while he was bad and didn't progress much if any throughout the season that hasn't soured me on the idea of putting what should be a future good or better QB into action right away and speeding up his progression. Only if I had a terrible offensive line would I sit the #1 overall QB. We are at least competent there so it is a good situation for a young QB to learn on the job.

If Mayfield or Rosen is better served to be starting in 2018 than Darnold maybe we go that route. It's a long term investment though so that would probably only be used as a tie breaker. It's just a guess though, no one thought Russell Wilson was gonna start or that Watson or Dak would bust out of the gates. Luck and Peyton delivered below the expectations as rookies. That is sometimes what rookie seasons are good for though, take the lumps as they progress and reap the future rewards.

One thing I would say regardless of which prospect it is, you could argue Jared Goff was partially saved from developing some really bad habits by sitting and only playing the last 7 games of the season under Jeff Fisher. 16 games of that would've been catastrophic for him and possibly really hard to come back from.

I don't rate Mayfield as a pro prospect in the first place, but what adds to that is that he will be 23 on opening day, and if I susbscribe to my belief that all the rookies could use around a year of sitting, he'd be 24 by then and imo, still with little to no experience of navigating muddy pockets and making tight window, anticipatory throws from the pocket.

Darnold and Rosen, who I believe are both ahead of Mayfield in that regard already, are 20 and 21, and would be only 21 and 22 after sitting a year. Those extra years mean a ton to me. You could theoretically put two to three solid years of pro football under Darnold and he'd still only be at the age that Mayfield would be rookie/second year.

I also like Alex Smith as a Brown because I dread the idea of sticking a prospect on this 0-16 team with no guidance in the QB room. Smith also happens to be a #1 pick from pretty much the same area as Darnold. I think he'd serve as a fantastic mentor whilst still providing the best QB play and credibility the team has seen since the return.

[Mastercheddaar]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

What I don’t see is any way, shape or form is that he’s a bigger risk than a prospect who hasn’t even shown the ability to actually play the game well yet.

Skill wise, probably not. Baker seems to be on par with all of the others. Again my biggest pin ups is his size (which some feel is not a big deal) and his character (I can't stand "Moxie) . That being said, if I have two QBs are are arguably have the same skill set and potential and one of them is 6'4' and a model citizen off the field while the other is Baker... AND I'm picking #1 overall. I'm going to go with the other guy that I have no issues with, as minor as they might seem. It's like buying a new car from two different lots. Both have the same model yet one is in the color you like and it has a spoiler on the back. Baker Mayfield is Canary Yellow. Some love it, others not so much. 

That is all

Mastercheddaar

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

3 minutes ago, Mastercheddaar said:

Skill wise, probably not. Baker seems to be on par with all of the others. Again my biggest pin ups is his size (which some feel is not a big deal) and his character (I can't stand "Moxie) . That being said, if I have two QBs are are arguably have the same skill set and potential and one of them is 6'4' and a model citizen off the field while the other is Baker... AND I'm picking #1 overall. I'm going to go with the other guy that I have no issues with, as minor as they might seem. It's like buying a new car from two different lots. Both have the same model yet one is in the color you like and it has a spoiler on the back. Baker Mayfield is Canary Yellow. Some love it, others not so much. 

That is all

Mastercheddaar

Stop it, no one likes canary yellow.

[Thomas5737]

1 hour ago, Aztec Hammer said:

One thing I would say regardless of which prospect it is, you could argue Jared Goff was partially saved from developing some really bad habits by sitting and only playing the last 7 games of the season under Jeff Fisher. 16 games of that would've been catastrophic for him and possibly really hard to come back from.

I don't rate Mayfield as a pro prospect in the first place, but what adds to that is that he will be 23 on opening day, and if I susbscribe to my belief that all the rookies could use around a year of sitting, he'd be 24 by then and imo, still with little to no experience of navigating muddy pockets and making tight window, anticipatory throws from the pocket.

Darnold and Rosen, who I believe are both ahead of Mayfield in that regard already, are 20 and 21, and would be only 21 and 22 after sitting a year. Those extra years mean a ton to me. You could theoretically put two to three solid years of pro football under Darnold and he'd still only be at the age that Mayfield would be rookie/second year.

I also like Alex Smith as a Brown because I dread the idea of sticking a prospect on this 0-16 team with no guidance in the QB room. Smith also happens to be a #1 pick from pretty much the same area as Darnold. I think he'd serve as a fantastic mentor whilst still providing the best QB play and credibility the team has seen since the return.

2 years mean nothing to me. If they work out they will all have multiple big time contracts after their rookie deal. Again, I wouldn't sit any #1 pick unless they simply couldn't get the playbook down or were not good at all. That shouldn't be the case with any of our options.

Goff was supposed to be a lot more ready than Dak Prescott their rookie years but it didn't turn out that way. Coaching had a lot to do with that but you can scheme for success from a rookie who "isn't ready", not saying our staff can do it but it can be done.

 

[duke2056]

5 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

To try to figure out who the best is at playing football.

When scouting do we simply ignore the actual game tape? Or does minutia make them “riskier” than someone who hasn’t yet managed to show they can actually play football well in the Mountain West?

So was Baker Mayfield actually "playing better" than all the other QBs, or were his results just better?

[MWil23]

47 minutes ago, duke2056 said:

So was Baker Mayfield actually "playing better" than all the other QBs, or were his results just better?

I have no idea what this means.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

1 hour ago, duke2056 said:

So was Baker Mayfield actually "playing better" than all the other QBs, or were his results just better?

 

[bruceb]

3 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

https://twoqbs.com/qb-profiles/baker-mayfield-armchair-scouting-report

Some great stats in here:

 

 

Of course this totally ignores the conferences they played in and the systems they were in, as well as the talent they were surrounded with.

[bruceb]

4 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Of course this totally ignores the conferences they played in and the systems they were in.

Which might be what @duke2056 was alluding to.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

59 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Of course this totally ignores the conferences they played in and the systems they were in, as well as the talent they were surrounded with.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html

This is all time btw.

It’s not like he just had a good season, he had the best season, ever, breaking his own record.

Whatever faults Mayfield may have, actually playing well isn’t one of them.

I get the Big 12 isn’t the Big 10, but it’s not like every other QB in that conference is on that list.

[bruceb]

1 minute ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/pass-rating-player-season.html

This is all time btw.

It’s not like he just had a good season, he had the best season, ever, breaking his own record.

Whatever faults Mayfield may have, actually playing well isn’t one of them.

I get the Big 12 isn’t the Big 10, but it’s not like every other QB in that conference is on that list.

Quite an illustrious list of NFL/never were losers, er names.

You can do better than this.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

35 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Quite an illustrious list of NFL/never were losers, er names.

You can do better than this.

I never said it guaranteed success in the pros, I said he was actually good at playing football in college.

You can do better than strawman.