Teen Girl Squad Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Tugboat said: And Chase was just an absolute bully at the catch point. Just beat up on DBs to take the ball. And has continued to do so at the NFL level. Funny enough, I was lower on Chase than many because I didn't think he'd be big/strong enough to bully ball at the NFL level but it wasn't an issue at all. Thus I'm not particularly nervous that Odunze will struggle there as well. Contested catch radius is usually not that useful as a stat because it favors WRs that can't get open consistently and its quite fluky based on the proverbial bounce of the ball but in Odunze's case, he was just a magnet for the ball if he was even in the rough area code of the pass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Teen Girl Squad said: Funny enough, I was lower on Chase than many because I didn't think he'd be big/strong enough to bully ball at the NFL level but it wasn't an issue at all. Thus I'm not particularly nervous that Odunze will struggle there as well. Contested catch radius is usually not that useful as a stat because it favors WRs that can't get open consistently and its quite fluky based on the proverbial bounce of the ball but in Odunze's case, he was just a magnet for the ball if he was even in the rough area code of the pass. Yeah. It seems like definitely a bit of a double-edge sword as a "metric" of analysis. At the college level, as a statistic...i guess it can actually end up being an indicator that they simply don't have the speed/quickness/explosiveness/ability to separate. There are guys who make a living at the collegiate level playing that "bully ball" vs smaller, weaker DBs...and just can't translate it to the Pros. But you can often see that showing up in the way they play. There are also guys where it goes the other way and you can see the skillset on tape, but they happen to have a QB who isn't very good at putting the ball out there in the open for them and leads them into a lot of contested catches that they have to bail out. It can also be really misleading, in a case where apparently Nabers is well up there, despite...certainly not seeing any of that real aptitude in the games of his that i've watched. I'm not even sure how they're tracking that tbh. He just makes a huge amount of completely uncontested catches, it's hard to understand how he'd even move the needle if it were % of catches that are contested and he comes down with. If it's just the other way 'round and we're talking about % of the few contested catches that are actually made...well, with Nabers, that's going to be a goofy metric because it's a small sample that can move the needle massively with just one or two catches or non-catches either way. I'm just not really a big fan of "stat scouting" in general. Whether it's traditional stats or fancystats like that. Pretty poor in ignoring context and nuance most of the time. Like PFF "grades" that seem halfway made up half the time. I just like to see at least a healthy dose of those "bail the QB out" type catches to think that they're going to be able to make those bailout catches at the Pro level. Because they're going to happen. And the way they attack those situations is important to me. But then...there are guys who do manage to disguise their weaknesses well and have certainly fooled me before. Kevin White is a notable one who just completely hoodwinked me. Though i guess it's still never going to be entirely clear how much his health/injury status impacted his development. There were some warning signs there though, in 20-20 hindsight. I don't think Odunze has those weaknesses. I think whatever he runs at the combine, he shows more quickness and explosiveness that will allow him to create enough separation to go to work with his absolutely huge catch radius. The way he adjusts on the ball and does it with super natural timing and deceptiveness. That looks easily translatable to me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 hours ago, Tugboat said: Man...DJ Moore was an absolute machine when it came to physicality and generating YAC without any sort of cushion. As a prospect, i thought that was actually going to be way more of his game that it's even become as a Pro, but my comp at the time was...vaguely Steve Smith like. And Chase was just an absolute bully at the catch point. Just beat up on DBs to take the ball. And has continued to do so at the NFL level. Both just on an entirely different plane of physicality for me as prospects, compared to Nabers. I loved both of those guys and was probably more bullish on both than most. I just don't see any of the same with Nabers. I just think invoking famously physical receivers to prove that Nabers is soft is a bit silly. I don't find his physicality lacking, but Odunze clearly has him there especially lined up outside - but it's not a top reason why I admire him either. He can sink and explode as a route runner, he's a competitive runner with ball in hand and take it the distance and has effortless deep speed. Those are the qualities NFL offenses are begging for. The fact he's also got plus body control, allowing him to make acrobatic catches is a nice cherry on top. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Malik Washington is a fascinating prospect, dominated the Shrine Bowl and is coming off a huge year at Virginia. He's a weird build at 5-10 and 190, but is a polished route runner (mainly slot), has tremendous contact balance and is far more physical than his listed size suggests. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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goldfishwars Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 There are three different intriguing, slightly undersized, day 2/3 receiver prospects with the surname Washington. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, goldfishwars said: Yeah not surprising Steve Smith loves Corley. They are similar in play style. 89 was faster, but not like a lot faster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 hours ago, goldfishwars said: Malik Washington is a fascinating prospect, dominated the Shrine Bowl and is coming off a huge year at Virginia. He's a weird build at 5-10 and 190, but is a polished route runner (mainly slot), has tremendous contact balance and is far more physical than his listed size suggests. It feels like there are a handful of sort of unusual build WRs in this draft, that have some talent...but might be a little bit of a trick figuring out how to use them specifically. Malik Washington though, he's a bit on the small side, but i think he projects pretty straightforward as a slot receivers/gadget player. Reasonably standard fit for a lot of systems these days. He'll probably get a little bit stronger/heavier in an NFL strength and conditioning program too. I think they'll find a way to maximize a little bit more out of his smallish frame. But i wouldn't be overly concerned about it. Not sure he'll be a huge volume target, but that's fine. 5 hours ago, goldfishwars said: Corley is definitely one of the weirdest builds. I'm just so curious how he's going to run and time out in various things at the combine. Very much not a typical WR build. Stumpy and stout, vaguely RB-like. Which tracks with his style of play. Very much a "get the ball in his hands" type receiver. I'm torn on him. He's fun to watch and he can certainly create yardage with the ball in his hands. But i do have a little more trouble envisioning exactly what his role is going to be as a Pro. If he's going to be an all the time sort of target, or more of a weird "specialist" that runs a more limited route tree and type of play designs. He's gonna have a lot riding on the combine i think. That'll really guide where he ends up going in the draft. 2 hours ago, goldfishwars said: There are three different intriguing, slightly undersized, day 2/3 receiver prospects with the surname Washington. I like Washington. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Drive Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Love Malik Washington. I think he goes late 3rd/early 4th. Hopefully to my team the Texans. Stroud throwing to Collins/Dell/Washington would be really good stuff. Edited February 16 by Kirby Drive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massraider Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Career YPRR after removing screens from the 2024 WR class. Johnny Wilson and Javon Baker....... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Techbert Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 (edited) On 2/18/2024 at 9:51 AM, massraider said: Career YPRR after removing screens from the 2024 WR class. Johnny Wilson and Javon Baker....... Saw the comment Now I know why I am lower on Corley than everyone else, and it resonated with me. PS I have been mad high on Franklin, Wilson, and Baker as well. (High on Malik Washington, too, but different reasons.) Edited February 20 by Techbert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massraider Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 28 minutes ago, Techbert said: Saw the comment Now I know why I am lower on Corley than everyone else, and it resonated with me. I have not looked yet, but Corley is strong, I am sure, in all the volume metrics. I never try and let one of these numbers bury a guy. This was a mistake I made with Aiyuk, who was a screen guy in college. He also looked great doing WR things at the Senior Bowl, but I don't get TOO excited about that because Denzel Mims looked like God that week, so I don't wanna make THAT mistake again. 😆 In terms of his standing: WR 14 by this consensus big board This is what, that 2nd/3rd area? And he might slip further into the 3rd. If 10-15 teams have taken a WR in the first two rounds, mid 3rd or even 4th round is possible. Can't get mad at that range for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Are people succumbing to recency bias, or am I alone on this hill in feeling JaMarr Chase was a better prospect than MHJ? Both blue chips, don't get me wrong, but JaMarr was the best to me since Calvin Johnson. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texansfan713 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Danger said: Are people succumbing to recency bias, or am I alone on this hill in feeling JaMarr Chase was a better prospect than MHJ? Both blue chips, don't get me wrong, but JaMarr was the best to me since Calvin Johnson. I have them even. You wont get any complaints from me if you feel Chase is the better prospect. I think the covid year bought the Chase hype down, but he was still a legit prospect. It's really tough to compare them as prospects. Edited February 20 by Texansfan713 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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