Bears now own #1 overall (via Carolina).... Fields + trade downs vs Williams/Maye etc.

[Rich7sena]

35 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Box scores should match what you see.  I'm not saying he was awful in that game, but he certainly wasn't playing at that same level he was during that Washington and Denver game.  And context matters, including the Arizona game those teams are a combined 16-32 and are all bottom 7 defenses in the NFL.  That's not impressive at all.

We have fundamentally different processes. If I watch a game, think a guy played well, but it turns out the box score was not great, I don't then turn around and think the guy played badly. And, it sounds like you're penalizing Fields for playing phenomenally against Denver and Washington, but not as great against other teams. It seems like you are holding Fields to a higher standard because you didn't like him as a prospect.

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

We have fundamentally different processes. If I watch a game, think a guy played well, but it turns out the box score was not great, I don't then turn around and think the guy played badly. And, it sounds like you're penalizing Fields for playing phenomenally against Denver and Washington, but not as great against other teams. It seems like you are holding Fields to a higher standard because you didn't like him as a prospect.

Find me a SINGLE game this year where the box score was ugly, but the QB played well.  The only time that might find a situation where late game mistakeous made the box score look worse, and even then most people would argue that the player played poorly.  I mean, I'll use Jordan Love for example against Pittsburgh.  Jordan Love was 21-40 with 289 passing yards, 2 passing TD, and 2 INT.  In Q4, he was a combined 6-14 with 117 passing yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Outside of that Q4, Love was a combined 15-26 with 172 passing yards, 2 passing TD, and 0 INT.  Overall, if you look at his stat line you'd say he had a bad game when your CMP% is around 50% and you have as many INTs as you do TDs, it's probably a bad game.  But context matters, and that Pittsburg game isn't as bad as the stat line appears.

And the law of averages says that the more you add to the pot, the clearer the picture becomes.  So a 10 game sample size is obviously going to be more meaningfully relevant than a 2 game sample size.  You want to point to 2 games against very bad defenses as to why Fields is a legitimate starting QB.  I'll point to the other 8 games where he didn't play well.

Great Games: Washington, Denver
Good Games: Arizona, Atlanta
Meh Games: Detroit, Minnesota (Week 12), Green Bay
Bad Games: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City

See the reoccurring theme there?  He plays well against bad teams, and meh or poorly against good teams.  Chicago has exactly ONE win against a winning team (Detroit).  And I'd argue that the Bears' defense won that game more than Justin Fields won that game.

[USADave]

Option 1: Draft Caleb Williams and then trade up and draft Marvin Harrison to pair with DJ Moore for the next several years.

Option 2: Trade it all and stock pile future value until someone puts a stop to it.

[Rich7sena]

22 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Find me a SINGLE game this year where the box score was ugly, but the QB played well.  The only time that might find a situation where late game mistakeous made the box score look worse, and even then most people would argue that the player played poorly.  I mean, I'll use Jordan Love for example against Pittsburgh.  Jordan Love was 21-40 with 289 passing yards, 2 passing TD, and 2 INT.  In Q4, he was a combined 6-14 with 117 passing yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Outside of that Q4, Love was a combined 15-26 with 172 passing yards, 2 passing TD, and 0 INT.  Overall, if you look at his stat line you'd say he had a bad game when your CMP% is around 50% and you have as many INTs as you do TDs, it's probably a bad game.  But context matters, and that Pittsburg game isn't as bad as the stat line appears.

And the law of averages says that the more you add to the pot, the clearer the picture becomes.  So a 10 game sample size is obviously going to be more meaningfully relevant than a 2 game sample size.  You want to point to 2 games against very bad defenses as to why Fields is a legitimate starting QB.  I'll point to the other 8 games where he didn't play well.

Great Games: Washington, Denver
Good Games: Arizona, Atlanta
Meh Games: Detroit, Minnesota (Week 12), Green Bay
Bad Games: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City

See the reoccurring theme there?  He plays well against bad teams, and meh or poorly against good teams.  Chicago has exactly ONE win against a winning team (Detroit).  And I'd argue that the Bears' defense won that game more than Justin Fields won that game.

So, he went from brutal outside of last week and a two game stretch against Washington and Denver to having four great/games, 3 meh games, and only 3 bad games?

[Epyon]

A factor with the Detroit win and Atlanta win is they rather inexplicably both try to beat Fields with man coverage. Atlanta was in man coverage 89% of the game. 

The biggest knock on Fields has been slow processing/reading the field, but he plays very well vs man coverage because the reads are easier. 

[BetterCallSaul]

3 hours ago, USADave said:

Option 1: Draft Caleb Williams and then trade up and draft Marvin Harrison to pair with DJ Moore for the next several years.

If they take Caleb, they would have to trade an absurd amount to get MHJR

[Melbourne 9er]

I'd trade down as far as #3 (if possible) and pick up an extra 2nd this year and a 1st next year. Draft young Marv and an extra O-lineman in the 1st. If Fields flames out then you will still have 2 firsts next year to trade up (unless you have the first pick again) to get your QB of choice. 

[PossibleCabbage]

On 1/5/2024 at 4:31 PM, BetterCallSaul said:

If they take Caleb, they would have to trade an absurd amount to get MHJR

Bears already don't have a second round pick (they traded it for Sweat), and I don't think Maserati Marv gets past the Cardinals, who pick 4th after the QB hungry teams.  If the Bears don't take Harrison at #1 they're probably not getting him.  It's more likely the Bears trade down from 9 to try to recoup a second round pick than move up from 9.

I think what the Bears do is ultimately a function of what kind of a response they get from other NFL teams about the trade value of the two primary assets (the #1 overall draft pick and the 24 year old quarterback.)  They should just go with whatever package of picks and players they value the most, but personally I would feel a lot better with a new quarterback- it's probably possible for an NFL team to win with Justin Fields, but that team would have to be much better than Chicago is at the other 21 starting positions.

[Mobile1963]

Here's the wrench:  Draft a QB at #1 and KEEP Justin Fields for at least one more season.

Why?  Picking a QB continues to be a total crapshoot.  You never know a person's ability/character until you see them up close.  

Generally, college QBs are not ready for the NFL and giving someone time to learn to be a pro and adjust to the speed cannot hurt.  Rushing a QB absolutely can hurt their development, as we have seen time and time again.  

The Bears have the cap space for two high-draft QBs that are still under their initial contracts. 

The vast majority of NFL teams need more than one QB starter in a 17 game season (21 of 32 teams this year - including the Bears), so the rookie QB will likely have a chance to play some anyway. 

Plan:  call J. Fields in early and tell him the plan.  As a reward for (hopefully) buying in, pick up his 5th year option right away.  If he keeps improving and rises to the challenge of competition, you trade the rookie.  If the rookie proves to be the real deal from what is observed over the season, you trade Fields. 

If you draft a rookie and trade J. Fields before discovering what you have, there is a good chance you end up worse off as a team than you are right now.

I am a New Yorker and a long-suffering fan of the NY Jets, so I don't really have any skin in this game.  But as a fan of another team that can't seem to ever get the QB position right, this is the best option IMHO.

[USADave]

On 1/10/2024 at 6:20 PM, Mobile1963 said:

Here's the wrench:  Draft a QB at #1 and KEEP Justin Fields for at least one more season.

Hot Take: Fields is worth more than a 3rd rounder…Even as a back up.

[Ozzy]

Caleb Williams has not declared yet, think he will hold out to avoid the Bears potentially?

 

If that is the case and he is not in the up coming draft, Fashanu or Harrison Jr are the play there.  Kind of a win win since they already have Fields...  Cannot recall a team drafting #1 with a pretty decent young QB already on the roster so they have options.  

 

I guess Arizona with Josh Rosen but everyone knew he sucked totally so not sure that is comparable, Fields is not Josh Rosen bad and has had success as a starter unlike Rosen really ever.  

[AkronsWitness]

34 minutes ago, USADave said:

Hot Take: Fields is worth more than a 3rd rounder…Even as a back up.

Even Hotter take: OCs if they are worth their salt should/would be oogling over the opportunity to work with Fields and his skillset. QBs with his physical gifts are incredibly rare. He is a similar athlete to Anthony Richardson (who just went #5 OVR) and Lamar Jackson but Fields has better natural arm talent than both of them. Its going to take a OC with a little fuzz on his peaches to look at the situation and say 'they are completely mishandling him over there, I can fix that' to make it happen.

[HTTRDynasty]

On 1/10/2024 at 7:20 PM, Mobile1963 said:

Here's the wrench:  Draft a QB at #1 and KEEP Justin Fields for at least one more season.

Why?  Picking a QB continues to be a total crapshoot.  You never know a person's ability/character until you see them up close.  

Generally, college QBs are not ready for the NFL and giving someone time to learn to be a pro and adjust to the speed cannot hurt.  Rushing a QB absolutely can hurt their development, as we have seen time and time again.  

The Bears have the cap space for two high-draft QBs that are still under their initial contracts. 

The vast majority of NFL teams need more than one QB starter in a 17 game season (21 of 32 teams this year - including the Bears), so the rookie QB will likely have a chance to play some anyway. 

Plan:  call J. Fields in early and tell him the plan.  As a reward for (hopefully) buying in, pick up his 5th year option right away.  If he keeps improving and rises to the challenge of competition, you trade the rookie.  If the rookie proves to be the real deal from what is observed over the season, you trade Fields. 

If you draft a rookie and trade J. Fields before discovering what you have, there is a good chance you end up worse off as a team than you are right now.

I am a New Yorker and a long-suffering fan of the NY Jets, so I don't really have any skin in this game.  But as a fan of another team that can't seem to ever get the QB position right, this is the best option IMHO.

This is one of those proposals that sounds good in Madden, but not so much in real life.  Half the fanbase would be clamoring to put Williams in after the first bad game Fields has, not to mention locker room divisions, lost opportunity to maximize draft compensation, etc.

[CWood21]

On 1/5/2024 at 12:45 PM, Rich7sena said:

So, he went from brutal outside of last week and a two game stretch against Washington and Denver to having four great/games, 3 meh games, and only 3 bad games?

Yes.  Brutal when we're talking about in context of comparing him against other QBs.  This year alone, we had 16 QBs with a CMP% north of 65% and 17 with an ANY/A north of 6.  Compare that to say 2000, when the NFL had 1 QB with a CMP% north of 65% and 10 with an ANY/A of 6+.  It's never been a better time to be a QB than now.  A chunk of that is probably due to the league changing so much in terms of rules.  Outside of that Washington/Denver games, how many games did Fields win for the Bears?  I guess maybe Atlanta was his 3rd best win, although again I'd probably argue that the Bears' D won that game.  Anytime you can force 3 interceptions, you're likely going to win the game.

[nicfre2011]

On 1/10/2024 at 7:20 PM, Mobile1963 said:

Here's the wrench:  Draft a QB at #1 and KEEP Justin Fields for at least one more season.

Why?  Picking a QB continues to be a total crapshoot.  You never know a person's ability/character until you see them up close.  

Generally, college QBs are not ready for the NFL and giving someone time to learn to be a pro and adjust to the speed cannot hurt.  Rushing a QB absolutely can hurt their development, as we have seen time and time again.  

The Bears have the cap space for two high-draft QBs that are still under their initial contracts. 

The vast majority of NFL teams need more than one QB starter in a 17 game season (21 of 32 teams this year - including the Bears), so the rookie QB will likely have a chance to play some anyway. 

Plan:  call J. Fields in early and tell him the plan.  As a reward for (hopefully) buying in, pick up his 5th year option right away.  If he keeps improving and rises to the challenge of competition, you trade the rookie.  If the rookie proves to be the real deal from what is observed over the season, you trade Fields. 

If you draft a rookie and trade J. Fields before discovering what you have, there is a good chance you end up worse off as a team than you are right now.

I am a New Yorker and a long-suffering fan of the NY Jets, so I don't really have any skin in this game.  But as a fan of another team that can't seem to ever get the QB position right, this is the best option IMHO.

What about signing a veteran stopgap QB like Jacoby Brissett to start year 1 if Caleb Williams or Drake Maye aren't ready to start right out of the gate? Even if the coaching staff thinks that the rookie is ready, having a veteran like Brissett could help their transition.

 

Edit: I don't think drafting a QB in round 1 and keeping Fields is a good idea all things considered. The lockerroom dynamics could be an issue.

Edited January 13 by nicfre2011