massraider Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 hours ago, Tugboat said: and is occasionally asked to take a few shots passing to absolutely wide open receivers on basically an easy first read toss. Which games did this happen? Not what I saw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 hours ago, Tugboat said: Yeah. I just don't even know how you can formulate any sort of confident read on his ability as a passer based on what he's done in College. He basically just hands the ball off repeatedly, lets his team completely dominate the game with the run game and defense, and is occasionally asked to take a few shots passing to absolutely wide open receivers on basically an easy first read toss. He's basically a Jeans Model type prospect. Is about the most i can even confidently say. He's got the build and maybe some solid NFL caliber tools with his arm and running ability. He kinda looks the part of a good QB prospect and he wins a ton of games. But none of it puts on tape a lot of indication that he's actually a really good Quarterback. He's gonna have an absolutely massive adjustment to the NFL level. The time and space and ease of what he was asked to do with Michigan is going to completely evaporate. It's really anybody's guess how he adapts to that, or whether he even has the tools to do so. Definitely a prospect who should be given time to sit and learn and ease into what it's like to face actual pressure, make multiple reads, fit balls in to tight windows, have the offense actually rest on your shoulders, etc. But because of where he's likely to fall in the draft, he's probably going to be taken by a desperate team that was "too good" to land one of the actual top QB prospects, but really needs some sort of a solution immediately. I just really don't know what to make of him though. The dominance of the rest of that team and situation in which he was asked to do basically nothing...makes him a total mystery box to me. A "ball of clay" type, but without any particularly evident "elite" tools to work with. Just a lot of maybe decent or slightly above average ones. Even as a runner he's just...okay, not next level dynamic. Just a very strange profile. He's a righty Tebow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, massraider said: Which games did this happen? Not what I saw McCarthy throwing to wide open receivers? Like every game. Most offenses have that baked in, and Michigan's is no exception. I don't think he did it more than most QBs in modern college offenses, but one thing you do see a lot from McCarthy, that Tugboat mentioned, is throws "in the general vicinity" of a receiver. He'll have three or four of those every game, and when you're only throwing 15 times, that's a big chunk of your total throws. And that's why I struggle to see McCarthy as anything remotely close to a first rounder. QBs don't go in the first round anymore just because they have tools. They have to be able to make NFL throws, and you maybe see 1-2 of those from McCarthy per game. And usually he's doing it in ideal conditions because he has a great OL, a fantastic RB, and a great defense on the other side. We never really got to see McCarthy play under duress (or at least, if we did, I didn't see that game), and the play we did see didn't scream "this is a future starter." But dumb GMs do dumb GM things all the time, so I'm sure someone will snag him in like the third round, or maybe even the second. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massraider Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I watched all the "every pass" vids I could find on YouTube. I didn't see a bunch of wide open WRs. I saw TEs that got schemed open, for sure. I also saw him throwing tight window throws that these same TEs dropped. Saw several drops, and he still completed 70+%. Saw a lot of pro throws. The arm looks NFL. I think his accuracy metrics will be among the best in the nation. I get it, he never carried the team throwing 40 passes. The passes he DID throw looked very good. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minutemancl Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Of course he's NFL caliber, and I think it is easy to see what coaches and FOs will like about him. He's got a strong arm, can move, seems like a smart kid, had a very successful college career, and he's super young. It's also easy, especially to fans who box score scout and only watch big games, to see what his biggest negative is: he was on a very good team and was not asked to carry them. He didn't throw very much, so there's a good amount of projection that has to be done. Ultimately, I think he has enough promise and will be enticing enough to one of these many, many teams that need a QB (Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Vikings, Broncos) that he will go in round one, probably higher than you'd even think (top-10 being a possibility). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 13 hours ago, massraider said: I watched all the "every pass" vids I could find on YouTube. I didn't see a bunch of wide open WRs. I saw TEs that got schemed open, for sure. I also saw him throwing tight window throws that these same TEs dropped. Saw several drops, and he still completed 70+%. Saw a lot of pro throws. The arm looks NFL. I think his accuracy metrics will be among the best in the nation. I get it, he never carried the team throwing 40 passes. The passes he DID throw looked very good. This is the crux of it though. He's still completing 70%+ of those few passes he throws, even with some drops. It speaks a lot to what he was really asked to do. Which wasn't much. Easy first read tosses right in front of him over the middle. When he goes to the perimeter, the separation is usually kind of goofy in single coverage...with huge forgiving windows to operate if he just heaves it out in the right area. He definitely appears to have an NFL arm. But the last bit is the issue. He just wasn't ever asked to carry an offense or make a number of demanding pressure throws. His tape is like a null hypothesis. He did exactly what he was asked to do. He did it well. You can't fault him on that. It's true. But even if you can confirm that, what does it really tell you in terms of projectability? It leaves you really just "guessing". Because there simply is not a team in the NFL that will be able to put him in that easy and advantageous a situation. NFL teams simply do not have that kind of massive talent advantage and complete and utter dominance of the trenches. Talent parity is so much tighter in the Pros. To put it another way...this year, even the least pass happy, most run-heavy teams in the NFL...still tossed ~30+ attempts a game. McCarthy lands closer to ~20 and a decent contingent of those being just schemed up no read tosses that are glorified handoffs through the air. Very few "real throws" and demanding reads with tight windows. It's not that he didn't do what he was asked to do with aplomb. It's that he simply wasn't asked to do what he'll be asked to do at the NFL level. So there's really just no way of knowing if he can handle it or not. 🤷♀️ 12 hours ago, minutemancl said: Of course he's NFL caliber, and I think it is easy to see what coaches and FOs will like about him. He's got a strong arm, can move, seems like a smart kid, had a very successful college career, and he's super young. It's also easy, especially to fans who box score scout and only watch big games, to see what his biggest negative is: he was on a very good team and was not asked to carry them. He didn't throw very much, so there's a good amount of projection that has to be done. Ultimately, I think he has enough promise and will be enticing enough to one of these many, many teams that need a QB (Bears, Commanders, Patriots, Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Vikings, Broncos) that he will go in round one, probably higher than you'd even think (top-10 being a possibility). Yeah. I fully expect him to go in the 1st round. There are just too many teams that need an answer. For all the "mystery box" McCarthy is...he looks the part, seems to have all the tools, and at the end of the day...he hasn't shown that he can't be an NFL starting QB. He hasn't really put anything particularly "bad" on tape. He just hasn't really put anything particularly amazing on tape either that would help you project him out as a dynamic starting QB in the NFL. But the absence of "bad" is a bit of a green light for teams to take a swing on a guy with all the tools. Dusted with "winning pedigree" is just gonna spur a team on in that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 14 hours ago, scar988 said: He's a righty Tebow. Nah. I don't think he has anywhere near the same level of charisma. He's also better at actually throwing the football though. Not sure if that will pay off for him as a QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nagahide13 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 From what you can see he's definitely NFL caliber. He has some pop and accuracy and runs the offense at the line with full freedom. He can run the offense from shotgun and make some reads. We have no idea how his arm will hold up throwing more than 10 times a game or how he'll play behind a substandard line. He's very athletic and can throw on the run though, so that's a positive in that direction. I don't think he should be a 1st rounder but probably will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 On 1/19/2024 at 10:10 AM, massraider said: I watched all the "every pass" vids I could find on YouTube. I didn't see a bunch of wide open WRs. I saw TEs that got schemed open, for sure. I also saw him throwing tight window throws that these same TEs dropped. Saw several drops, and he still completed 70+%. Saw a lot of pro throws. The arm looks NFL. I think his accuracy metrics will be among the best in the nation. I get it, he never carried the team throwing 40 passes. The passes he DID throw looked very good. There were times where he looked great and times where he made really, really dumb decisions. My biggest thing w/ McCarthy is he's a giant questions mark. His entire career has been him knowing what defense the opposition was playing in and anyone who's ever played football (or even baseball) will tell you that if you know what is coming, your job is a lot easier. Then you have to factor in games where it's certain none of that info was present (TCU) and evaluate that. It could be argued he didn't know anything after Stalions was fired but are we certain he didn't? If Connor was able to gather info and pass it along to coordinators for over 2 years, how do we know the OC and DC didn't have that info as well? Too many question marks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superduperman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/19/2024 at 9:27 AM, scar988 said: He's a righty Tebow. he's not that bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scar988 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Superduperman said: he's not that bad He is from what I saw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tugboat Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, scar988 said: He is from what I saw. When did you see McCarthy being that bad? The thing for me is more just the ambiguity. I don't think i've actually seen him being "aggressively bad" on the whole. I just haven't really seen any of him being particularly good either. He is going to get some of the "Tebow bump" for just being a "winner" for sure. That positive label carries a lot of water with certain segments of NFL brass even today. But at the very least, he's got a far less jacked up problematic throwing motion. Also a lot less fanfare and cult of personality distraction around him though, which could be a positive. I'm just curious when/where you saw him being so clearly terrible? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dliverey1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think that he is a 2nd round guy for sure, but he needs to sit for at least a year (Jordan Love treatment). He is able to drive the ball, he needs to learn when to add more touch, and he is competent scrambler. The biggest thing for me is his work ethic and desire to get better. Early in his career I can see him in a game manager role, nothing wrong with that because most QB's start that way and improve as they gain experience. He has made several throws that he hits the WR/TE in stride to allow YAC. I feel like he is being punished because Michigan did not need him to carry the team. I know I am in the minority with this opinion. TLDR: JJ is good 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BetterCallSaul Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 hours ago, dliverey1 said: I feel like he is being punished because Michigan did not need him to carry the team. I know I am in the minority with this opinion. I agree with you. It’s trendy to hate on him because he has some talent around him. The dude made some incredible throws during their run against stiff competition. It’s not like he has guys running wide open every game like Bama’s Mac Jones. What specifically does he suck at that’s gonna prevent him from being successful is what I’d like to hear. He has a solid arm…probably a + arm. Great athlete. Great leader. Smart and decisive. Ascending trajectory. Solid size profile. Played in a pro style system. To me, he looks like Brock Purdy with some accentuated features. Obviously Purdy continues to improve, which is why he is where he is right now. But with that being said, I struggle to see why McCarthy can’t be an NFL QB. My guess is it’s because he didn’t have bulk stats or throw for 400 yards every week like some other college kids. He was a game manager for sure, but that’s exactly what he should have been for them. I don’t hold it against Michigan for playing smart football en route to an undefeated National Championship. Clearly that recipe worked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich7sena Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, BetterCallSaul said: What specifically does he suck at that’s gonna prevent him from being successful is what I’d like to hear. He has a solid arm…probably a + arm. Great athlete. Great leader. Smart and decisive. Ascending trajectory. Solid size profile. Played in a pro style system. He can be pretty inaccurate for a guy who throws such low volume--especially outside the numbers and down the field on deep balls. He has not developed good touch or tempo on most of his throws. His release is low and long. His athleticism is a bit oversold. He's a good, not great athlete, and he's on the stiff side. There's nothing I have seen that suggests he's particularly smart or decisive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.